Wet Weekend Approaching - Hermine to Visit Hampton Roads

The map above of the projected path of Tropical Storm Hermine pretty much says it all - Hampton Roads is in for a wet Labor Day weekend.  Hopefully, the storm passes through quickly and we will be able to salvage at least part of the weekend. 

Joaquin - 50 Knot Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

The well know waiting game continues as locals watch to see where Tropical Storm Joaquin heads as the week goes on.  It's a safe bet that the weather will truly suck in terms of heavy rains and gusty winds even if Joaquin stays a ways off shore.  Folks up the coast to the north should likewise pay attention.   We've had the generator serviced and will be testing the three large sump pumps just to play it safe.

Then there is this from NBC News:

Now check out this:  It's a compilation of many of the US models on Joaquin-- and there's a strong consensus toward a VA. Beach landfall: 

This track would be CATASTROPHIC and cause major damage across the state.  Power outages, trees down, flooding rain:  All are on the table.

BUT
The European model, which is very good model (and the one that sniffed out Superstorm Sandy early) still has Joaquin well offshore.  This would be good news, but Joaquin could still interact with the Jet Stream, a stalled cold front, and some upper level energy to produce big wind and rain.  But the offshore track would mean much less damage.

 As I said, the joys of coastal living.

Outer Banks Sea Levels Could Rise A Foot or More

Highway 12 washed out

Like their Republican counterparts in the Virginia General Assembly, North Carolina Republican officials refuse to admit that climate change is occurring or that seal levels are rising.  Indeed, they past legislation banning any effort to look at the problem until 2016.  Meanwhile, a new report indicates that sea levels along the Outer Banks - a tourism cash cow for North Carolina - may rise a foot or more over the next few decades.  Will the Republicans pull their heads out of the sand and face objective scientific reality?  Don't hold your breath.  A piece in the Virginian Pilot looks at the report findings and the continued GOP denial of reality.  Here are highlights:

A new 30-year report on sea-level rise shows wide variances along the North Carolina coast, from a possible rise of 4 inches at Southport to more than 12 inches on the northern Outer Banks.

The News & Observer of Raleigh reported those numbers are part of a draft report by an advisory science panel for the N.C. Coastal Resources Commission. The commission requested the report after legislators rejected a 2010 study.

The 30-year projections will go through 18 months of peer review, public comment and possible revision. A 2012 law prohibits state agencies from taking any action based on the sea-level forecast until July 1, 2016.

East Carolina University geologist Stan Riggs, a member of the advisory panel, said state leaders should start dealing with the effects of coastal storms whose impact is magnified by the rising sea.
“If you’re going to build sewage plants or hospitals or highways, you’d better be thinking about the longer term,” Riggs said Wednesday.

If the rate of sea-level rise is unchanged over the next 30 years, the new report says the increases will include about 2.4 inches at Southport and about 5.4 inches at Duck. But the report says it’s unlikely the rate will remain static.

Frank Gorham III of Figure Eight Island, the Coastal Resources Commission chairman, rejected calls from critics to replace the original members of the science panel. He also reduced the scope of its new forecast to 30 years.

“We have to do a better job this time of listening to both sides, instead of just throwing it in the trash and saying it’s terrible,” Gorham said Wednesday. “Read the thing and listen to people.”

Two sea-level scientists from out of state will review the new draft report. They are Robert G. Dean, a former civil engineering professor at the University of Florida, and James R. Houston of Vicksburg, Miss., a former research director with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Then the commission chairman is expected to order a study of the economic and environmental costs and benefits of developing coastal regulations based on the sea-level forecast.

Hurricane Season is Upon Us

Just a month into official hurricane season and Tidewater Virginia may have a visit from its first major storm as Tropical Storm Arthur - which is expected to strengthen - heads up the east coast.  As of 11:00 AM, this is what the National Hurricane Center has to say:

The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning for parts of North Carolina as Arthur moves north off Florida’s coast, threatening Fourth of July plans for thousands of people.

The warning issued Wednesday stretches from Little River Inlet to the North Carolina-Virginia border. The warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere in that area within 36 hours.

The hurricane watch is in effect for Dare County in the Outer Banks. 

Once again, the local media is hyping the story to the max and  setting the stage for a situation where many will ignore important forecasts simply because too often the media has blown actual facts all out of proportion.

Climate Change - A Seriously Neglected Topic

Marina near Sacramento, California

I get numerous outraged comments - typically by anonymous commentators - whenever I look at the issue of climate change.  Some are out right personal attacks while others are authored by religious extremists who cling to a childish fantasy world that has no room for scientific knowledge.  Yet, given the huge potential disruptions to everyday life that climate change poses, the topic is far too little discussed.  Is the media afraid of upsetting Christofascists or is the fear that America's increasing reality show oriented viewers too stupid to grasp the science?  Whatever the reason, the media is doing the public a disservice.  A column in the New York Times looks at this too little covered issue.  Here are some highlights:

HERE’S a scary fact about America: We’re much more likely to believe that there are signs that aliens have visited Earth (77 percent) than that humans are causing climate change (44 percent).

That comes to mind because a couple of weeks ago, I asked readers for suggestions of “neglected topics” that we in the news business should cover more aggressively in 2014.

You would think that we would be more attentive, with the federal government a few days ago declaring parts of 11 states disaster areas because of long-term drought. More than 60 percent of California is now in extreme drought.

Yet we in the news media manage to cover weather very aggressively, while we’re reticent on climate. Astonishingly, coverage of climate has actually declined in mainstream news organizations since peaking in 2007, according to the count of researchers at the University of Colorado. (Coverage did increase last year after a low in 2012.)

The proportion of Americans who say they believe that global warming is real has fallen since 2007 as well, and climate beliefs have fallen victim to political polarization.

Yet the scientific consensus is stronger than ever. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in September raised its confidence that human activity is the main cause of warming from 90 percent probability to 95 percent or higher.

When we have this disjunction between scientific consensus and popular perception — well, that should light a fire under those of us in the news media.

Professor Nordhaus is a moderate whose work has been cited by climate deniers, yet he concludes: “Global warming is a major threat to humans.”  Nordhaus acknowledges uncertainty but sees that as a problem: “The outcome will produce surprises, and some of them are likely to be perilous.”

For all the uncertainty, Nordhaus cites several areas of strong agreement among experts: Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere exceed those observed for at least the last 650,000 years; hurricanes will grow more intense; the Arctic will become ice free in summer; oceans will rise up to 23 inches by 2100 (more if there were major melting of ice sheets); and the global temperature will likely be 3.5 degrees to 7.5 degrees Fahrenheit higher in 2100 than in 1900.

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet is typically predicted to add only a few inches to sea level rise by 2100, Nordhaus says. But ice dynamics are still poorly understood, and that matters a great deal. If the whole Greenland ice sheet disintegrated, that would raise sea level by 24 feet.

Climate change is hugely exacerbated by changing patterns of how we choose to live, often in danger zones such as extremely vulnerable coastal zones — from New Jersey to the Philippines. This enormously increases the economic and human costs of hurricanes, rising seas and changing weather patterns.

We need to focus more on climate change, and perhaps that can help nudge our political system out of paralysis to take protective action to reduce the threat to the only planet we have.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Virginia and North Carolina

While the Republicans at both the state and national level continue to deny that climate change is happening at all, six days into the 2013 hurricane season and here in Hampton Roads we already have our first bout with tropical storm weather about to move in.  And that's not even mentioning the growing number and intensity of tornado in the Mid-West.  Thankfully, it looks like this first round locally will be minimal.  Nonetheless, I'm glad the boyfriend and I installed a whole house generator and three large industrial sump pumps last summer.  Here's the forecast locally:

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Hampton Roads and northeastern North Carolina as Andrea heads northeast this morning.

At 5 a.m., the storm was packing winds of 60 mph and was located about 800 miles southwest of Norfolk, according to the warning from the National Hurricane Center. It was moving north-northeast at about 13 mph.

The warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours, although we could see just the remnants of the storm on Friday

 Welcome to summer on the Virginia coast!

Climate Change And Budget Cuts Could Make This A Very Dangerous Hurricane Season

Saturday (i.e., yesterday) was June 1st and the start of the 2013 hurricane season - which is predicted to be a much more active season than normal.  For those of us living in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia which is ranked second after New Orleans in terms of flood risk, it is always a time of mixed feelings.  One welcomes the advent of summer yet dreads what the reason may portend.  With the Congressional Republicans opposing any serious discussion of climate change and rising sea levels and sequestration driven budget cuts for NOAA and other governmental departments that track hurricanes, one is not left with a "warm and fuzzy feeling."  Our home has flooded in past storms and we have taken measures to (i) waterproof the first floor, (ii) installed a whole house generator, and (iii)  installed industrial grade sump pumps to deal with any future flood wares.  Unfortunately, most homeowners do not have the financial resources to make such costly improvements.  A piece in Think Progress looks at how these combined factors could make the 2013 hurricane season particularly dangerous.  Here are story excerpts:

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Saturday and despite warnings of an above-average season and increasingly intense storms driven by climate change, key agencies are facing mandatory cuts that threaten their ability to prepare and protect at-risk communities.

In releasing its annual hurricane season outlook last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an “active or extremely active” season, with 13 to 20 named storms — 7 to 11 of which could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes.

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

In addition, climate change is fueling more intense and destructive storms. As Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, explains, “Climate change is causing a greater number of intense storms. The total number of storms has remained constant, but the proportion of high-intensity events has gone steadily upward in most parts of the world. Scientific models and real-world observations both suggest that the frequency of intense storms is going up.”

As climate change warms the oceans, water evaporates faster — driving stronger winds, more rain, and more powerful hurricanes. And as sea levels rise, the storm surges from hurricanes will be more destructive, posing a serious threat to coastal communities.

As coastal communities are increasingly vulnerable to more severe storms, across-the-board cuts mandated by the sequester could undermine the ability of federal agencies to keep communities informed and prepared for severe weather.

The National Weather Service, already cash-strapped and under scrutiny for sub-par computer modeling, will be grappling with a hiring freeze and mandatory furloughs as it heads into a potentially daunting hurricane season. The NWS office in Tallahassee, which typically has 18 meteorologists on staff, is down to 14 due to the cuts.


Though officials say they can maintain adequate staffing to provide critical services, such as forecasting at the National Hurricane Center in Miami and sending aircraft known as Hurricane Hunters into storms to measure speed and pressure, the staff and crews will be forced to take turns being furloughed.

With resources and personnel already stretched thin, the prospect of multiple major storms becomes even more daunting. “The biggest concern would be if we have a very active hurricane season and we have back-to-back storms or we have multiple storms hitting the state, they would simply not have the manpower necessary to ensure they have the appropriate coverage in all their field offices to provide us with the most accurate and timely forecast,” said Bryan Koon, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

As Sandy demonstrated, the ‘new normal’ of climate change-driven storms mandates a new level of preparedness. Instead, agencies responsible for predicting storms and protecting communities in harm’s way are being forced to grapple with significant cuts on the eve of what’s predicted to be a serious hurricane season.

Given the vulnerability of Southeastern Virginia to hurricane damage one would think that the Virgina GOP would be pushing for meaningful preparedness,  Instead, the Virginia GOP refuses to even admit that global warming and climate change is even occurring.  

Religious Based Ignorance Stifling Climate Change Action in U.S.A.

Hatteras Island looking north from Buxton

UPDATED:The May 5, 2013, Virginian Pilot has a lengthy article on what rising sea levels are doing to North Carolina's Outer Banks.  Unfortunately, the North Carolina GOP refuses to have any discussion about climate change and global warming.

Our home in 2009 - the entire block and many other parts of the neighborhood were flooded

As yet more evidence that fundamentalist Christianity and the embrace of ignorance that goes with it constitutes a threat to America's future and security, a new study has found that fundamentalism and belief in the "end times" is preventing America from taking much needed action on climate change.  Here in Virginia and GOP controlled North Carolina where rising sea levels and the increasing intensity and frequency of tropical storms is a very real problem, the Christianist controlled Republican continue to refuse to admit that global warming and the related sea level rises and storms is even happening.  It's lunacy and dangerous public policy, especially for those of us who live in coastal areas.  Here in Tidewater Virginia, coastal flooding is a growing problem and we've had four serious storms and flooding in the last 10 years.  An article in The Raw Story looks at the study findings:

The United States has failed to take action to mitigate climate change thanks in part to the large number of religious Americans who believe the world has a set expiration date.

Research by David C. Barker of the University of Pittsburgh and David H. Bearce of the University of Colorado uncovered that belief in the biblical end-times was a motivating factor behind resistance to curbing climate change.

“[T]he fact that such an overwhelming percentage of Republican citizens profess a belief in the Second Coming (76 percent in 2006, according to our sample) suggests that governmental attempts to curb greenhouse emissions would encounter stiff resistance even if every Democrat in the country wanted to curb them,” Barker and Bearce wrote in their study, which will be published in the June issue of Political Science Quarterly.

“[I]t stands to reason that most nonbelievers would support preserving the Earth for future generations, but that end-times believers would rationally perceive such efforts to be ultimately futile, and hence ill-advised,” Barker and Bearce explained.

That very sentiment has been expressed by federal legislators. Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) said in 2010 that he opposed action on climate change because “the Earth will end only when God declares it to be over.” He is the chairman of the Subcommittee on Environment and the Economy.

Though the two researchers cautioned their study was not intended to predict future policy outcomes, they said their study suggested it was unlikely the United States would take action on climate change while so many Americans, particularly Republicans, believed in the coming end-times.

“That is, because of institutions such as the Electoral College, the winner-take-all representation mechanism, and the Senate filibuster, as well as the geographic distribution of partisanship to modern partisan polarization, minority interests often successfully block majority preferences,”

To these religious zealots, the writings of unknown, uneducated and ignorant nomads and herders trump modern scientific knowledge and the objective evidence that we see all around us.   What's amazing is that these same folks ridicule and condemn fundamentalist Muslims for the same knowing embrace of ignorance of which they themselves are guilty.  They are a menace plain and simple.

As for the picture of our home, it was built in 1958.  Yet the serious flooding issues have only arisen in the last 10 years.  Obviously, something is happening whether the cretinous Christofascists want to admit it or not.  I'm sorry, but religious belief has no place in the civil laws or in public policy.

Did People Fail to Take Hurricane Sandy Seriously Enough?

Watching television and viewing other media coverage of the devastation in New York and New Jersey I continue to be horrified.  And I am no stranger to the ravages that hurricanes can inflict.  I lived through the direct hit of Hurricane Frederic back in 1979 when I lived in Mobile and now three hurricane storm surges since 2009 in our home in Hampton (2009 caused major flooding to the house and the boyfriend and I lived in basically two rooms for the better part of the next six months as the entire first floor was ripped up and repaired in a manner that made it water resistant).  But I keep wondering why more people seem to have not evacuated both in New York and New Jersey.  With the hype of Sandy as the "Frankenstorm" and the dire predictions of the level of the storm surge, it is not as if there wasn't warning.  It is a question that needs to be asked and investigated because too many lives seem to have been lost needlessly.

The New York Times profiles some of the harsh aftermath of Sandy.  As for the speed of relief services arriving, I know that it can seem like an eternity before power is restored and debris is removed, etc.  And sadly, in New York and New Jersey the amount of debris is staggering.  And the numbers of people needing relief are staggering as well.  One can only hope that (1) future storms - of which scientists say will will like see more - will be taken far more seriously and (2) as rebuilding begins new construction standards and flooding criteria will be imposed. This is something that will not be popular with many - people in Alabama screamed when Gulf Shores and Dauphin Island had to be rebuilt to much more exacting standards - but simply ignoring the new climate and sea level reality will only court future disasters and the needless loss of lives.

One can only hope that on Tuesday we do not see climate change deniers elected to offices where acceptance of the new reality is impeded or totally rejected.  There will be more Hurricane Sandy's and all of us need to accept that and plan accordingly.  Hurricanes are no longer just a southern or southeastern danger to be dealt with.  We cannot undo what has happened, but we can be much more ready for the next monster storm.

Evacuation zones in red

Romney: Shut Down Federal Disaster Agency, Send Responsibility To The States

With literally millions of Americans huddling in their homes as Hurricane Sandy bears down on them, there is one point that ALL of us need to remember: Mitt Romney would eliminate FEMA and leave disaster relief to the states.  States that have nowhere near the money or ability to handle serious disasters.  In Romneyworld, it's all about spending as little as possible on regular Americans so that he and his fellow plutocrats can pay as little as possible in taxes.  And as for  the rest of us?  We are on our own.  When talking about the 47% of Americans that he holds in contempt, Romney for once was honest when he stated: it's not my job to worry about these people.  So much for the Gospel message to care for others.  I find the man to be morally repulsive.  If it's not his family and rich cat friends, his attitude is "f*ck them" - be they men, women or children.  Here are highlights from Huffington Post:

During a CNN debate at the height of the GOP primary, Mitt Romney was asked, in the context of the Joplin disaster and FEMA's cash crunch, whether the agency should be shuttered so that states can individually take over responsibility for disaster response.

"Absolutely," he said. "Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that's the right direction. And if you can go even further, and send it back to the private sector, that's even better. Instead of thinking, in the federal budget, what we should cut, we should ask the opposite question, what should we keep?"

"Including disaster relief, though?" debate moderator John King asked Romney.

"We cannot -- we cannot afford to do those things without jeopardizing the future for our kids," Romney replied. "It is simply immoral, in my view, for us to continue to rack up larger and larger debts and pass them on to our kids, knowing full well that we'll all be dead and gone before it's paid off. It makes no sense at all."

To Romney - like so many among the Christofascist and Tea Party circles, most of us are disposable garbage.  A point that is underscored by Romney's desire to repeal the Affordable Health Care Act and leave millions with emergency rooms as their sole source of medical help.  It's morally sick, but it is the face of today's GOP. It is the true face of Mitt Romney.  Are all Mormons this morally bankrupt?

Did Climate Change Help Create ‘Frankenstorm’ Sandy?

While the knuckle dragging Neanderthals and reality denying members of the Republican Party base continue to refuse to accept that global warming is real, some of the less reality untethered are questioning the correlation between man made impacts on climate and nature in general and aberrant climate events such as the looming Hurricane Sandy "Frankenstorm."  After enduring the hottest summer on record and having witnessed unprecedented climate events perhaps reality is catching up with  freckles mankind.    A piece in Think Progress looks at this issue.  Here are highlights:

As the East Coast braces for a possible direct hit from Hurricane Sandy, meteorologists are closely watching the storm’s “freak” formation. They’re calling it “unprecedented and bizarre,” a “perfect storm,” and a “frankenstorm” that could cause historic storm surges, last for multiple days, and cause over a billion dollars in damage.

After hitting Jamaica and heading toward the Bahamas, experts say it’s likely that Sandy could swing into the Northeast and hit the coast somewhere between Washington, DC and Boston, impacting people all along the Atlantic seaboard. Projections for Sandy’s path are still uncertain, but models show that the threat is increasing.

A confluence of factors are coming together to make the storm unprecedented. As Sandy moves through the Atlantic, it is expected to combine with an early winter storm from the continental U.S., causing pressure to drop — potentially reaching pressure levels of a category 3 or 4 hurricane with winds over 115 miles per hour.

Brian Norcross of the Weather Channel described the storm this way on his facebook page: “This is a beyond-strange situation. It’s unprecedented and bizarre. ”

Another factor under consideration is climate change. Like a baseball player on steroids, our climate system is breaking records at an unnatural pace. And like a baseball player on steroids, it’s the wrong question to ask whether a given home run is “caused” by steroids.

As Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, has written, all superstorms “are affected by climate change”:

The air is on average warmer and moister than it was prior to about 1970 and in turn has likely led to a 5–10 % effect on precipitation and storms that is greatly amplified in extremes. The warm moist air is readily advected onto land and caught up in weather systems as part of the hydrological cycle, where it contributes to more intense precipitation events that are widely observed to be occurring.

The climate change link may be more than just more precipitation. A 2010 study found “Global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the North Atlantic Subtropical High.”

Coastal areas may be hit with storm surges of up to 6 feet, potentially reaching the highest levels ever recorded. The storm could last as long as 4-6 days, bleeding into the election.

The storm comes at a unique time politically. In August, the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida was disrupted by strong rain and flooding caused by Hurricane Isaac. Two days later in his acceptance speech, Mitt Romney mocked President Obama’s pledge to deal with climate change and “slow the rise of the oceans” — causing uproarious laughter among delegates.

“The climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events,” explained meteorologist Jeff Masters earlier this year.

Navy Orders Most Norfolk Based Ships to Sea in Advance of Sandy

It is never a comforting signal when the U. S. Navy orders the vessels of the Atlantic Fleet home ported in Norfolk to sea in advance of an approaching hurricane.  It's a clear signal that the Navy believe the area may get hit fairly significantly.  The Virginian Pilot reports that this afternoon the order to sail has been issued by the Naval command in Norfolk:

The Navy ordered Friday nearly all its warships in Hampton Roads to head out to sea to ride out Hurricane Sandy, which is making its way up the East Coast.

Adm. Bill Gortney, head of the Navy's Fleet Forces Command, gave the order Friday afternoon for at least 26 ships, according to a Navy news release. Weather conditions at sea should be calmer than along the coast.

“Based on the current track of the storm, we made the decision to begin to sortie the fleet,” Gortney said in the release. “The current timeline allows them enough time to transit safely out of the path of the storm."

Under the order, at least 21 vessels currently docked at Norfolk Naval Station and two at Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek in Virginia Beach will head to sea by Saturday morning. Included in the order are three supply ships operated by Military Sealift Command.

Hybrid of Hurricane Sandy/Winter Storm Threatens East Coast

Back in November, 2009, Hampton Roads was hit with what locals call the Nor'Ida storm - a situation where remnants of Hurricane Ida came up the east coast and collided with a northeaster coming down the coast.  The photo above shows what happened to our home in Hampton.  Noe, forecasters are predicting a similar event may occur as Hurricane Sandy moves up the east coast - the only good news for Hampton Roads is that the worse part of the scenario may hit further north hitting New York or New England.   Should Hampton Roads get hit again, the boyfriend and I have done all we can to prepare: a whole house generator and three industrial sump pumps to deal with potential rising water.  Here are highlights from the Virginian Pilot:

Much of the U.S. East Coast has a good chance of getting blasted by gale-force winds, flooding, heavy rain and maybe even snow early next week by an unusual hybrid of hurricane and winter storm, federal and private forecasters say.

Though still projecting several days ahead of Halloween week, the computer models are spooking meteorologists. Government scientists said Wednesday the storm has a 70 percent chance of smacking the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North are predicted to collide, sloshing and parking over the country's most populous coastal corridor starting Sunday. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say.

"It'll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod," said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Md. "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."

It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear. They say it has all the earmarks of a billion-dollar storm.

Cisco said the chance of the storm smacking the East jumped from 60 percent to 70 percent on Wednesday. Masters was somewhat skeptical on Tuesday, giving the storm scenario just a 40 percent likelihood, but on Wednesday he also upped that to 70 percent. The remaining computer models that previously hadn't shown the merger and mega-storm formation now predict a similar scenario.

Needless to say, I hope the forecasters are wrong and that the storm stays far offshore.

Hurricane Issac Coverage May Preempt GOP Convention

Today's events at the GOP convention have been cancelled and the agenda for the event has been revised because of Hurricane Issac.  But something worse may yet to come: media coverage focused on the storm rather than on the attempt to Etch A Sketch Mitt Romney into someone remotely likable.  As the New York Times notes, this is a possible nightmare scenario for the convention planners and the Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette like Mitt and Ann Romney.  Should the storm hit New Orleans, the shift in coverage may be even worse.  Here are highlights from the Times article:

It looks to be one of the worst nightmares for planners of Mitt Romney’s coronation.  At the height of the Republican National Convention this week, a potential Category 2 hurricane bearing winds greater than 100 miles per hour appears likely to slam into the Gulf Coast, perhaps close to the already battered city of New Orleans.

Searing images of wind-damaged homes, flooding and mass evacuations — all fraught with the memory of Hurricane Katrina — may well compete on television with Mr. Romney’s bid to seize the initiative in his battle with President Obama for the White House.

“Images of revelry by Republicans at a time of suffering by other Americans — no party wants those optics,” said Steve Schmidt, who helped lead Senator John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “You have terrible awareness of all that stuff.”

But Mr. Schriefer declined to comment on the difficult imagery of conducting the convention at the same time that a storm hits the Gulf Coast.  “Until we know that and we can predict the weather, we are going to continue with our Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday schedule,” Mr. Schriefer said.

Planners could decide to truncate the convention even more, canceling Tuesday’s activities or scaling back the festivities and speeches on some of the other days, out of deference to the imagery coming from the gulf.

But that carries risks, too. Mr. Romney is waging what appears to be a close race against Mr. Obama, and his campaign has been counting on the impact of the convention to present his argument for change to the largest audience Mr. Romney will likely have before the election in November.

Cutting back the convention even further would rob the campaign of a chance to make that case in the way they had been planning. It would probably mean that some high-profile speakers like Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, or Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, might lose their opportunity to address the convention.

That, in turn, would make it harder for Mr. Romney to present the kind of message that he wants ahead of the final nine weeks of the campaign after the party conventions.

Yes, I am enjoying the prospect of a major bust for the GOP's effort.  There truly is a sense of divine justice if this plays out.

Hurricane Issac Update - The GOP Convention Will Be Wet at Best

The cynic in me continues to hope that Hurricane Issac turns the GOP Convention in Tampa into a bust, but with no serious damage to Floridians.  No one needs to see the disingenuous propaganda that will be pumped out from that coven of lunatics, bigots, racists, and anti-democracy forces that will be assembling for the GOP gathering.  The map above shows Issac's position this morning.  With friends in Key West, my thoughts are on their safety and I hope that wonderful island is spared from any severe damage.

Has God forsaken the Republican Party?

While Dana Milbank clearly has his head up his ass in terms of recognizing a hate group when he is all but beat about the head with evidence, he did get it right in a part serious party humorous column in the Washington Post that looks at some of the self-inflicted debacles that the Republican Party has wrought against itself.  Oh, and then there's the possible hurricane that might sweep over Tampa as the self-styled party of God assembles for its national convention.  I wish nothing ill on Floridians, but a direct track of Isaac - we even get a biblical name - over Tampa would be most entertaining since it would definitely be a display of God's displeasure if one subscribes to the lunacy of the party base and spokesmen like Pat Robertson and other certifiable crazies.  Here are some column highlights:

Has God forsaken the Republican Party?  Well, sit in judgment of what’s happened in the past few days:

** A report comes out that a couple dozen House Republicans engaged in an alcohol-induced frolic, in one case nude, in the Sea of Galilee, where Jesus is believed to have walked on water, calmed the storm and, nearby, turned water into wine and performed the miracle of the loaves and fishes.

** Rep. Todd Akin, Missouri’s Republican nominee for Senate, suggests there is such a thing as “legitimate rape” and purports that women’s bodies have mysterious ways to repel the seed of rapists. He spends the next 48 hours rejecting GOP leaders’ demands that he quit the race.

** Weather forecasts show that a storm, likely to grow into Hurricane Isaac, may be chugging toward . . . Tampa, where Republicans will open their quadrennial nominating convention on Monday.

Coincidence? Or part of some Intelligent Design?  By their own logic, Republicans and their conservative allies should be concerned that Isaac is a form of divine retribution. Last year, Rep. Michele Bachmann, then a Republican presidential candidate, said that the East Coast earthquake and Hurricane Irene — another “I” storm, but not an Old Testament one — were attempts by God “to get the attention of the politicians.” In remarks later termed a “joke,” she said: “It’s time for an act of God and we’re getting it.”

Even if you don’t believe God uses meteorological phenomena to express His will, it’s difficult for mere mortals to explain what is happening to the GOP just now. 

By most earthly measures, President Obama has no business being reelected.  .  .  .  . But instead of being swept into office by the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression, Republicans are in danger of losing an election that is theirs to lose. Mitt Romney, often tone-deaf, has allowed Obama to change the subject to Romney’s tax havens and tax returns. And congressional Republicans are providing all kinds of reasons for Americans to doubt their readiness to assume power.

A boozy frolic at a Christian holy site might have been a considerable embarrassment for the party, but it was eclipsed by a bigger one: Akin’s preposterous claim on a St. Louis TV program that pregnancy is rare after a “legitimate rape” because “the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.”

The big party people had a further complication: In Tampa on Tuesday, those drafting the GOP platform agreed to retain a plank calling for a constitutional amendment banning abortion without specifying exceptions for cases of rape. In other words, the Akin position.

For a party that should be sailing toward victory, there were all the makings of a perfect storm. And, sure enough: Tuesday afternoon, the National Weather Service forecast that “Tropical Depression Nine” would strengthen into a hurricane, taking a northwesterly track over Cuba on Sunday morning — just as Republicans are arriving in Florida.

Climate Change is Here — and Worse Than We Thought

Living on the water in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia - one rated almost as bad as New Orleans for storm flooding potential - the boyfriend and I are well aware of the problems being brought on by global warming and rising sea levels.  To deal with increased flooding problems (our home - pictured above in November 2009 - cannot be raised in a financially feasible manner) we have installed a whole house generator and will have three high capacity industrial sump pumps installed next week so that when the next hurricane comes we can aoid having standing water in the house.  Others in the area are also taking steps" e.g., the U. S. Navy which plans on spending many millions of dollars at the Norfolk Naval base where water levels have increased some 14+ inches since the middle of the last century.  Meanwhile, the Neanderthals and flat earth crowd in the Republican Party of Virginia in the General Assembly deny the problem even exists. James E. Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has a telling column in the Washington Post that looks at the reality that Republican refuse to exist.  Here are excerpts:

When I testified before the Senate in the hot summer of 1988 , I warned of the kind of future that climate change would bring to us and our planet. I painted a grim picture of the consequences of steadily increasing temperatures, driven by mankind’s use of fossil fuels.  But I have a confession to make: I was too optimistic.

In a new analysis of the past six decades of global temperatures, which will be published Monday, my colleagues and I have revealed a stunning increase in the frequency of extremely hot summers, with deeply troubling ramifications for not only our future but also for our present.

This is not a climate model or a prediction but actual observations of weather events and temperatures that have happened.  .   .   .   .   our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.

The deadly European heat wave of 2003, the fiery Russian heat wave of 2010 and catastrophic droughts in Texas and Oklahoma last year can each be attributed to climate change. And once the data are gathered in a few weeks’ time, it’s likely that the same will be true for the extremely hot summer the United States is suffering through right now.

These weather events are not simply an example of what climate change could bring. They are caused by climate change. The odds that natural variability created these extremes are minuscule, vanishingly small. To count on those odds would be like quitting your job and playing the lottery every morning to pay the bills.

Our new peer-reviewed study, published by the National Academy of Sciences, makes clear that while average global temperature has been steadily rising due to a warming climate (up about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit in the past century), the extremes are actually becoming much more frequent and more intense worldwide.

Such events used to be exceedingly rare. Extremely hot temperatures covered about 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of the globe in the base period of our study, from 1951 to 1980. In the last three decades, while the average temperature has slowly risen, the extremes have soared and now cover about 10 percent of the globe.  .   .   .   .   Such events, our data show, will become even more frequent and more severe.

There is still time to act and avoid a worsening climate, but we are wasting precious time. We can solve the challenge of climate change with a gradually rising fee on carbon collected from fossil-fuel companies, with 100 percent of the money rebated to all legal residents on a per capita basis. This would stimulate innovations and create a robust clean-energy economy with millions of new jobs. It is a simple, honest and effective solution.  The future is now. And it is hot.

Despite all the evidence, neither Virginia nor the USA has any plan to deal with what is happening.  In Hampton Roads there are 1.6 million people, many of who will be increasingly impacted by rising sea levels.  How bad do things need to become before the GOP pulls its head out of its ass?

Norfolk Asks Commonwealth of Virginia for Help On Flooding

As regular readers of this blog know well, this region of Virginia has some major flooding problems in hurricanes and severe northeasters. In fact, in 2008, the EPA ranked Norfolk second only to New Orleans among East and Gulf Coast cities threatened by storm flooding. Underscoring this reality is the fact that at Sewells Point in Norfolk (i.e., the Norfolk Naval Base), the sea level has risen 14.5 inches since 1930. But the problem is not limited to Norfolk - Hampton, parts of Virginia Beach, Newport News, Chesapeake and York County likewise face severe problems. And none of the municipalities have the funds to undertake the building of berms and flood gates.

Currently, the boyfriend and I are considering a major renovation to our home that would get all of the main living areas off of the first floor. "Plan A" which involved adding a third floor came in as too costly. "Plan B" would involve adding a second floor to part of the house is still under design and pricing. Fortunately, after the 2009 "Nor'Ida storm" (see the photo below) we largely waterproofed the first floor up to a level three feet above the floor and replaced all the flooring with marble (a client in Norfolk told me recently that she and her husband have done something similar). As a result, clean up is easy, but one still has to move all of the furnishings upstairs when a bad storm approaches.

As a result of this enormous long term problem, the City of Norfolk has asked the Commonwealth of Virginia to help pay for a study to determine the most effective ways to address the problem. Here are highlights from the Virginian Pilot:

A full moon, a high tide and a brief downpour can be disastrous for many residents in Norfolk's East Ocean View. Rising water from Pretty Lake, a tributary of the Chesapeake Bay, often overwhelms the storm sewer system and overflows the inlet's banks, flooding streets, homes and cars.

Much the same is true in Ghent, where the Hague often spills into the neighborhood.

The cost to fix flooding problems in those two neighborhoods, by installing floodgates and berms and relocating streets, is pegged by city officials at as much as $135 million. Add the Mason Creek and Spartan Village areas and it's more than $200 million - and that doesn't begin to address Larchmont, Colonial Place, downtown and many other flood-prone neighborhoods.

"We don't have that kind of money," Mayor Paul Fraim said. As sea levels rise, the problems will become more acute. So the city has asked the General Assembly to pay for a study that would recommend strategies on how best to deal with it.

The study would not be limited to Norfolk. The bills call for a comprehensive study of flooding in all of "Tidewater," including Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore, as well as the Northern Neck.

The problem throughout Hampton Roads is twofold - not only is the sea slowly rising, much of the land is slowly sinking.

According to measurements taken at Sewells Point in Norfolk, sea level has risen 14.5 inches since 1930. It isn't known why local cities are sinking, but Bob Matthias, an assistant in the Virginia Beach city manager's office, said the theory is that the huge amount of water being drawn from wells may be the cause.

Some say the global warming that's led to sea-level rise is being caused by man-made pollution. Others say it's a naturally occurring progress. Regardless, Stolle said, "Now is the time for us to see what we need to do.

"We have the Norfolk naval base here," Fraim said. "We have the ports facilities here. From a national security standpoint, the federal government should be very interested in protecting those facilities." According to the governor's commission on climate change, Hampton Roads ranks 10th in the world in the value of assets threatened by sea-level rise.

Goodbye 2011 - Year End Reflections

This time of year always leaves me feeling inexplicably sad. I guess it's a mix of sadness for what was lost in the past year and the prospect of uncertainty in the coming year. A lot has happened in 2011, both for gay rights and in my life. Here's some brief reflections on 2011:

January began 2011 in the most sad and harsh way for me: I lost my mother on January 5th. We had known that she was failing and she had needed to move in with one of my sisters in July, 2010. None of us, however, expected her to go so suddenly. It is as if she knew what was coming in terms of the likelihood of nursing home care and said "no thank you." On January1, 2011, I saw my mom happy and alert for the last time. A mere four days later she was gone. She will never be forgotten. I want to extend a sincere thank you to readers who have made contributions to the scholarship endowment. It has meant so much to me.

Later in the year, the Boyfriend and I made our annual pilgrimage to Key West and we had a wonderful time, even if my mother's loss and some of the family drama haunted me at times. The photo below was taken at Lattitudes at Sunset Key - part of the Westin Hotel property - which I recommend highly for lunch (with cocktails, of course). I will always be grateful to the Boyfriend for introducing me to Key West and taking me at his expense went I was in a financial time of trouble.

In April, 2011, working with the Hampton Roads Community Foundation and with the blessing of HRBOR, I established the George D. and Marion Phelps Hamar/HRBOR scholarship to aid graduating LGBT high school seniors (April also marked the point where I was able to pay my former wife the balance of what I owed her under the less than gay-friendly final divorce decree that was entered against me by a judge who thought that being gay was a "choice"). I was very blessed by the fact that my parents never wavered in their love and support of me when I came out of the closet after 37 years of torment and self-hate. Too many LGBT youths do not have such loving and loyal parents and the scholarship was my way of both honoring my parents and hopefully making a difference in the lives of young LGBT individuals over the future years.

In May, one of my nieces got married and we experienced a family reconciliation after the drama that had immediately followed my mother's death. The boyfriend's gift was to do the entire wedding party's hair (OK, all the women) and that of my other sister. It was a great day and a beautiful event on the beach in the Sandbridge area of Virginia Beach.

June saw the largest Out in the Park ever with estimates of up to 17,000 people at downtown Norfolk's Town Point Park. The Boyfriend and I were sponsors and were thrilled with the huge success of the event. Out in the Park 2012 will return to downtown Norfolk and as a member of the Hampton Roads Pride board of directors, my efforts will be aimed at making the event in 2012 even bigger and better (the video at the link shows the 2012 launch party).

July was an emotional time as my oldest daughter headed west to Olympia, Washington, to join her fiance. Her going away party marked the first time that my former wife (pictured below with my two daughters) and I were at the same social event, and happily, the event went very well. My former wife has a new significant other in her life and I wish them much happiness. I hope that as time goes by we can build upon the civil experience and be good parents working in tandem for my three children.

August was not kind as the Boyfriend and I suffered the effects of Hurricane Irene which swept through the Hampton Roads area at extreme high tide and once again subjected our home to flooding, albeit not as bad a situation as it might have been because of the things we had done in the wake of the Nor'Ida storm of 2009. One of the things we are looking to do in 2012 is to add a third floor to the house so that all of the main living area can be moved out of the potential flood zone. If we can pull it off, the first floor will remain largely as is to be used as an entertainment area for larger events.

In September, we made our usual Bay Days Weekend trip to New York City and once again enjoyed the restaurants and things to do. We also saw "Priscilla Queen of the Desert" and had a nice visit with my niece and her boyfriend. Later, we so the long overdue demise of Don't Ask, Don't Tell - a case where religious based discrimination what been written into the nation's laws. Hopefully, 2012 may see the demise of DOMA.

October was a month blessed by the western Mediterranean cruise that I took the Boyfriend on as a "thank you" for standing by me through all of the drama of 2009, including a desperate suicide attempt when the continuing divorce drama got the best of me. He is a true sweetheart - at least most of the time - and he has made such a huge positive difference in my life. We loved Barcelona and the ports we visited in France and Italy before returning to Barcelona.

November brought Thanksgiving which I shared with the Boyfriend's family and my youngest daughter (pictured below) and her boyfriend. Throughout my coming out saga, she was always a lifeline to me and I treasure her more than she will ever know. I truly might not have made it without her love and support.

December brought the Christmas holidays and a wonderful visit with my oldest daughter who was back east visiting. She's doing well in her new career and her boyfriend (they are pictured below) is a delight. Spending some time with her over the holidays made the season for me. I am so very, very proud of her. I was also lucky enough to have some great conversations with my son who remained out west for the holidays (search "Appalachian Trail" to see photos of his amazing adventure in 2008). My children and the Boyfriend are the greatest treasures in my life.

It's definitely been a year of great sorrow, but also of great happiness. Throughout it all, I've enjoyed the love of the Boyfriend (pictured below) and the moral support from my wonderful readers and my friends in the LGBT blogosphere. Many of you will never know how much your loyalty and words of comfort and support have meant to me. I wish all of you health and much happiness in 2012.

On Eve Of 9/11 Anniversary, Cantor Insists On Massive Cuts To First Responders

Eric Cantor continues to be an embarrassment to Virginia - and the human race. Weasel in chief Cantor wants massive cuts in funding for first responders in exchange for disaster relief payments in the wake of Hurricane Irene and other natural disasters. Funny how Cantor had no qualms about rubber stamping whatever deficit spending Chimperator Bush and Emperor Palpatine Cheney asked for during the years of misrule. As regular readers know, I have absolutely no use for Cantor and continue to hope that his constituents will get their heads out of their asses and vote the douche bag out of office. The man is despicable. Here are some highlights from Think Progress:

Yesterday, President Obama requested $5.1 billion to provide disaster relief to communities struggling to recover from recent hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and wildfires. The request includes $500 million in emergency funds FEMA needs to continue to operate effectively through the end of September.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, whose home state of Virginia was hit by an earthquake and Hurricane Irene, is demanding more partisan spending cuts in exchange for approving the request.

The funds referenced by Cantor’s spokesperson are contained in the House Department of Homeland Security Appropriations bill, which is adamantly opposed by Senate Democrats. Why? The “offsets” contained in the bill are actually massive cuts to first responders. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) explains: The House bill slashes funding for grants to equip and train first responders by 40 percent. This is on top of the 19 percent cut in FY 2011. The House defense appropriations bill provides $12.8 billion to train and equip troops and police in Afghanistan — yet the House provides only $2 billion for first responders here at home.

In December, Cantor opposed a bipartisan bill “to improve health services and provide financial compensation for 9/11 first responders who were exposed to dangerous toxins and are now sick as a result.” Now, on the eve of the 10th anniversary of 9/11, Cantor is pushing for further cuts to first responders in exchange for disaster relief.

Cantor and his staff continue to insist “There will be no delay in meeting the president’s request and providing people the aid they need.” But they have yet to support any such request absent more partisan spending cuts.