The Virginia GOP's Coming Civil War

The infighting in the Republican Party will not be limited to the national level.  Here in Virginia the lunatic Christofascist/Tea Party base has been emboldened by the defeat of Eric Cantor by a Tea Party extremists and all indications are that an effort will be made to drag the Virginia GOP even further into looney bin territory.  While the national debate on immigration should hopefully make it clear to minorities of every stripe that they are not welcomed in the GOP, the fight in Virginia will also likely have insane far right religious overtones as the theocrats at The Family Foundation pressure the Republican members of the Virginia General Assembly to enact "turn away the gays" bills to grant special rights to Christofascists to discriminate at will under the smoke screen of "religious liberty."  An article in the Washington Post looks at the coming fray.  Here are highlights:

Virginia’s fractured GOP will be drawn into yet another skirmish between the conservative grass roots and party establishment next year, when its top Republican will face a primary challenge from the right.

Just five months after the stunning defeat of former House majority leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), Virginia House Speaker William J. Howell finds himself fending off a similar threat.

Virginia has gained national attention as a swing state where, after a string of losses, Republicans are working furiously to position themselves to compete in the 2016 presidential election. One of their challenges is to unite a state GOP deeply divided between moderates and a coalition of activists and tea party faithful who want the party to stand stronger on such rallying issues as reducing government spending and opposing abortion and immigration reform.

[T]he right wing continues to control many of the state GOP’s leadership posts and retains the power to guide candidate nominations. The lesson many Republicans are taking from Cantor’s defeat, and from Howell’s impending primary fight, is that anything goes in the topsy-turvy world of Virginia politics — and no one should assume he or she is safe.

Not everyone thinks Howell is any more at risk this election cycle than in the past — and Stimpson has her own set of detractors, some of them Howell loyalists who resent her for turning against her patron.

“Howell will beat Stimpson like a rented mule,” said Ray Allen, a Republican consultant and Cantor loyalist who has tangled with the conservative coalition.

Stimpson is part a chorus of conservatives who believe that Howell orchestrated a compromise that ensured passage of a sweeping transportation bill last year — and secretly cleared the path for the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.

Howell led Republican opposition to Medicaid expansion and denied any secret effort to let it pass. But Stimpson and others objected to the creation of a 10-member commission that they feared would bolster the case for expansion.
[Howell] called the transportation bill vital for residents’ safety as well as economic development.  “That’s important, particularly in the part of the commonwealth where I live and where Susan lives,” he said. “People are desperate for transportation improvements. Conservatives don’t like to raise taxes, but they also don’t like to borrow money or not fund things.”

For those not living in Virginia, the state's Interstates were crumbling in many areas  and but for the money raised in the transportation bill would now be down right dangerous.  The lunatics of the GOP base care nothing about safety or sustaining the economy.  They are motivated solely by greed and hatred of others.

TOP Virginia GOP Adviser: Gay Sex Leaves Men in Diapers

If one wants a clear glimpse of just how insane the Republican Party of Virginia has become, look no farther than Steve Waters, adviser to Republican congressional candidate Dave Brat who defeated Eric Cantor in that district's primary.  Like most of the leadership in the Virginia GOP, Waters is only too happy to prostitute himself to the Christofascists at The Family Foundation ("TFF") - the real central committee for the Virginia GOP - and like many of such ostensible leaders, he has apparently begun to believe the deliberate anti-gay lies disseminated by the "godly folk" at TFF.  Now, Waters has gone on an anti-gay rant that sounds like something coming out of the hate groups, American Family Association or Traditional Values Coalition who never care about the truth when denigrating others.  The Raw Story looks at Waters' unhinged rant.  Here are highlights:

Steve Waters, an adviser to Republican congressional candidate Dave Brat in Virginia, argued this week that homosexuality was not “normal” because it caused cancer, and it would eventually force gay men to wear diapers by destroying their rectal muscles. 

On Wednesday, blogger Benjamin Tribbett called out Waters for several anti-LGBT messages that he had written on Facebook earlier in the day.

A second posting by Waters was more graphic: “Is it normal for adult males to have to wear diapers because their rectal muscles have been abused so badly they can no longer control or tighten them to avoid pooping their pants.”

I’ve got history, natural law and biology on my side on this one,” he insisted. “What do you guys have, emotion. You should know emotion doesn’t work well in public policy. But I’ll concede one accusation, I’m not normal-my wife would agree with on some days, lol!”

When pressed for evidence on his diaper theory, Waters produced a link to a Christian website that claims homosexuality is “brimming with disease,” but does not mention anything about abused rectal muscles or diapering. 

Eventually he offered a link to the anti-LGBT rights group Family Research Council, which did not mention diapers, but it did say that gay men were at risk for having to wear a colostomy bag from “fisting” each other.

Will a Civil War Break Out in the Virginia GOP?

The RPV' Base's 2013 "dream team" of extremists

Some conjecture that the Tea Party take down of Eric Cantor may be only the opening salvo of a civil war that may flare within the Republican Party of Virginia ("RPV").  Even as the Commonwealth's population trends toward more diversity and the voting power of the urban areas increase, the Christofascists and their fellows hiding under the Tea Party label are veering more and more into complete crazy land.  Some in the RVP - admitted far too few - seem to be slowly realizing that the insanity of the party base may spell the long term death knell of the party.  The spittle flecked Christofascists and Tea Party lunatics, who naturally remain detached from objective reality, in contrast claim that more "ideological purity" within the party is what will save it.  A piece in the Washington Post looks at the brewing intra-party warfare.  Here are highlights:

Virginia Republicans watched and waited to see if the state party’s treasurer would resign after he publicly questioned Muslims’ contributions to society.  Some urged his ouster; others kept quiet. Finally, he agreed to step down.

The episode added to the turmoil within the state party that is making a growing number of Republicans uneasy about the GOP’s ability to elect statewide candidates or deliver Virginia for a Republican presidential candidate in 2016.

In June, a group of tea party activists, Ron Paul enthusiasts and staunch conservatives calling themselves the “conservative coalition” shocked the nation when they helped a little-known economics professor defeat former House majority leader Eric Cantor.

The fighting could come to a head Saturday when Republicans from both camps — insurgents and establishment — gather in Richmond for a meeting of the party’s governing body, the State Central Committee. The meeting comes as Democrats hold all five statewide offices and the GOP is struggling to define itself.

Officially, the committee will decide some internal issues. But unofficially, some are predicting a day-long slugfest between warring factions that haven’t faced each other since Cantor’s loss.

While a meeting full of arcane parliamentary rules might seem irrelevant to the long-term success of the party, many Republicans say the decisions of a few dozen powerful insiders will have a direct impact on the GOP’s likelihood of nominating candidates with enough mainstream appeal to win statewide elections in a changing Virginia.

Ron Butler, president of a ­direct-mail firm with ties to Cantor, was pessimistic that momentum would swing back to the establishment. “They’re acting more like the Muslim Brotherhood than the Republican Party in this country,” he said of the conservative wing of the GOP. “They scream about Eric Holder and President Obama upholding the Constitution. They’re attempting to throw their own constitution out.”

The conservative wing tried to blacklist Butler’s firm, an unprecedented move in Virginia politics that some say runs counter to the party’s free-market ideals.

With big policy issues facing the state, including Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s effort to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and a worsening state budget shortfall, some Republicans see their internal troubles as an unhelpful distraction.

The flap about the former party treasurer began July 29, when Bob FitzSimmonds posted an inflammatory comment about Muslims on Facebook. . . . Democrats seized on the FitzSimmonds controversy to cast ­Republicans as incendiary and noninclusive. The state party specifically called on Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ed Gillespie to denounce the comments, which the Democrats called “bigoted.”

At the core of the rift is a ideological clash about how candidates are nominated for elected office. The conservative coalition prefers party-run conventions that attract the most committed, conservative activists to day-long gatherings. Moderate Republicans prefer primaries, which are open to all voters in Virginia.

Last year, conservatives in crucial party leadership positions successfully pushed for a convention — and went on to nominate candidates for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general whom Democrats, on their way to a historic sweep of all three offices, painted as too conservative.

"Too conservative" is an understatement.  Far right extremists - and in the case of Cuccinelli and Jackson, freaking insane - would be more apt.

GOP Shifts Further Right After Cantor Defeat

The death wish of the GOP over the longer term continues as the party shifts further right after Eric Cantor's primary defeat - even as the nation as a whole fails to move in that direction.  Indeed, the GOP's fixation on appeasing a shrinking base of angry white voters has not let up.  Never mind the surging Hispanic population and the younger generation's revulsion towards the far right social issues that are dejure with the insane, Christofascist dominated GOP base.  A piece in Talking Points Memo looks at this continued GOP slide toward becoming the crazy party.  Here are excerpts:

If anyone doubted that the Republican Party would become more conservative after the ousting of Eric Cantor, his successor put those doubts to rest over the weekend.

In an interview with Fox News, incoming House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) revealed leadership's first significant policy shift: opposition to reauthorizing the Export-Import Bank when its current charter expires on Sept. 30, a move that would shutter the credit agency.

"One of the problems with government is it's going to take hard earned money so others do things that the private sector can do. That's what Ex-Im Bank does," he said. "I think Ex-Im Bank is one that government does not have to be involved in. The private sector can do it."

The Ex-Im Bank, first established in 1934, is tasked with boosting the exports of American goods and services through loans and guarantees. In fiscal year 2013, the Ex-Im bank supported $37.4 billion in U.S. exports and 205,000 export-related American jobs, the agency estimated.

One of the most avowed opponents of the Ex-Im Bank is Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)  . . . . Hensarling is no ordinary conservative troublemaker. The six-term congressman is respected by Republicans and beloved by the activist right, which has been pushing him to mount a dark-horse bid to unseat John Boehner as Speaker next year.

McCarthy also shifted his tone on the issue of immigration reform. In January, the Californian, who hails from a district that is 35 percent Hispanic, championed "legal status that will allow [people living in the U.S. illegally] to work and pay taxes."

On Sunday McCarthy was singing a different tune, telling Fox News that the House should do "nothing about immigration until we secure the borders." He added: "The borders are not secure." He didn't specify what would constitute a secure border, leaving enough room to oppose immigration reform no matter what happens at the border.

Democrat Trammell Has a Shot in Cantor's Former 7th District

Jack Trammell

One of the aspects of Eric Cantor's defeat last week in the GOP primary for the Virginia 7th Congressional District is that suddenly the Democrat challenger, Jack Trammell, may have a shot at winning the general election in November.  If that happens, it would provide another instance where Tea Party insurgents have handed victory to an otherwise long shot candidate.  Sometimes ideological purity demanded by the Kool-Aid drinking Tea Party and Christofascist activists of the GOP base comes with a high price.  A piece in the Richmond Times Dispatch looks at the new landscape of the race for the 7th District.   Here are some excerpts:

Jack Trammell entered the race for the 7th District’s congressional seat fully expecting to mount the traditional quixotic challenge to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

But fellow Randolph-Macon College professor Dave Brat’s stunning, tea party-fueled upset of Cantor last week has changed the dynamics of the race, arguably giving Trammell and eager fellow Democrats a better chance to compete for a seat that has been in Republican hands since 1971.

“I was expecting to face Cantor, and I knew what the realistic prospects of what kind of campaign it was going to be and what it was going to take to make it a competitive race, if it could be that,” Trammell recalled in an interview at a Starbucks on the edge of the district.  Then Brat won.

“At that point my iPhone, literally within 30 minutes, melted in a pile of plastic and rubber,” Trammell said. “I think I had 644 emails in the first hour or two.”


[T]he 50-year-old author, associate professor and farmer from Louisa County is running as a Democrat in a district with a voting history that is more “red” than a vampire novel. That, by the way, is what Trammell was writing before the political fates plucked him from obscurity and thrust him front and center into a nationally watched race. 

[N]ow, attention is turning to Trammell, whose decision to seek the seat sprang from the encouragement of friends, after existing most of his life as a notion of public service he might pursue someday.


A week after the race was set, Trammell is in the midst of crafting policy positions on major issues sure to be debated over the next four months. He shared a few of them during his first sit-down interview.

On education: Trammell, an associate professor of sociology who also directs Randolph-Macon’s disability support services, wants reforms to student loan debt.

On health care: He favors expanded health care and expanded Medicaid, but with a caveat. “I realize that any program that’s that large is going to have the danger of waste, fraud and mismanagement and red tape,” he said.

On immigration: Trammell said his ancestor Thomas Trammell came to Virginia from England through the Port of Alexandria in 1671 after indenturing himself to pay for the voyage.  The issue, he said, should be evaluated as a cost-benefit analysis balancing the advantages of what he describes as immigrants’ “human capital, diversity, innovation and energy,” versus the strain that unregulated immigration can place on basic human services, local communities and homeland security.

On the minimum wage: “I do generally support the minimum wage, and I think increasing it is fairly logical based on inflation rates and cost-of-living increases.” He’s open to letting localities make their own decisions on the wage, saying it could be used as an economic development tool.

Only time will tell whether such common sense positions can carry the day in a GOP leaning district.

The Cantor Effect for Big Business and the G.O.P.

I noted yesterday in a post that Eric Cantor's loss to David Brat had more more to it than Brat's savaging of Cantor for his support for some sort of immigration reform, the theme most talking heads like to latch onto.  Most frighteningly for the so-called GOP establishment and its big business benefactors is Brat's hostility to big businesses and populist message that hearkens back a century ago when big business and the ultra wealthy trampled on average Americans. That populist message ultimately lead to labor unions , the social safety net and other government programs that today's GOP is seeking to dismantle as it works to bring back the Gilded Age of the Astors, Rockefellers, Goulds, et al.  A piece in the New York Times looks at the fear Cantor's defeat has ignited in some in big business circles and within their lap dogs in Congress.  Here are article excerpts:

The day after Representative Eric Cantor became the first congressional leader in modern times to lose his seat in a primary, one of the biggest aftershocks occurred not on Capitol Hill or in the sprawling Richmond suburbs he has represented for more than a decade but on the New York Stock Exchange.

The share price of Boeing tumbled, wiping out all the gains it had made this year, a drop analysts attributed to the startling defeat.

While he was often an adversary to both the Tea Party and Democrats in Congress, Mr. Cantor, a Republican and the House majority leader, was also a powerful ally of business big and small, from giants like Boeing to the many independently owned manufacturers and wholesalers that rely on the federal government for financial support.

His loss at the hands of David Brat, a Tea Party-inspired economics professor who campaigned on throwing corrupt Wall Street bankers in jail, railed against crony capitalism and insisted that immigration reform would only reward lawbreakers, spurred business leaders to mobilize to preserve their clout in Congress. 

Mr. Cantor’s loss is much more than just symbolism. He has been one of Wall Street’s most reliable benefactors in Congress. And Mr. Brat used that fact to deride the majority leader as someone who had rigged the financial system. In one recent speech, he accused lawmakers like Mr. Cantor of favoring “special tax credits to billionaires instead of taking care of us, the normal folks.”

The majority leader stopped a provision — reviled by the industry — in the Stock Act of 2012 that would have required hedge funds to disclose more about how they gather market-sensitive intelligence. He battled with conservative lawmakers to extend the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, a top priority of the insurance industry, which has helped it recover from losses after the Sept. 11 attacks. He helped scuttle White House proposals to collect more taxes from private equity firms.

No industry was more generous to Mr. Cantor’s campaign than financial services. The three largest contributors in this election cycle, in which he collected $5.4 million, were Goldman Sachs, the Blackstone Group and Scoggin Capital Management.

Those business interests, caught off guard by Mr. Cantor’s defeat, are moving quickly to ensure that Mr. Cochran does not meet the same fate.

One priority of business that is in the most immediate jeopardy given Mr. Cantor’s defeat is the Export-Import Bank, which companies like Boeing and General Electric and hundreds of smaller companies rely on to provide subsidized loans to foreign customers. Eliminating the bank has become a conservative cause on par with repealing the Affordable Care Act.

“Cantor was the hub for finance, the hub for a host of big corporations that could trust him to get things done,” said Sean West, the head of United States analysis for the Eurasia Group, which advises corporations about political risk. “He was the one standing between the conservative pitchforks and the business community on a whole host of issues.”

Another issue seen as fundamental to businesses all over but probably more imperiled given Mr. Cantor’s loss is financing for the nation’s crumbling highway system. Many conservatives have balked at replenishing a highway trust fund that is about to run out of money. But business groups, led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have argued that the trust fund is essential for the nation’s competitiveness given the major infrastructure investments made by competitors like China.

What has concerned many businesses with a stake in federal policy is a growing anger on the right from people who can sound more Occupy Wall Street than Tea Party.

“You could even make a case that there’s a lot in common between the Tea Party types and the Elizabeth Warren liberals,” said Gregory R. Valliere, the chief political strategist for the Potomac Research Group. “The impact of what’s happened is going to make Republicans in the House apprehensive about appearing to be too cozy to business.”

Beyond their priorities in Congress, what has unsettled business executives is what they sense as a growing anger over the “corporate welfare” and “crony capitalism” among many associated with the Tea Party.

I find most aspects of the Tea Party to be down right scary, especially the Tea Party elements that embrace ignorance and bigotry.  On the other hand, if insurgents like Brat can push the GOP to cease its war on the working and middle classes, perhaps some partial positive good might come out of the movement. 

Does the Rise of David Brat Signal A Revolt Against the GOP's New Gilded Age?

I will be candid.  I find David Brat, the Tea Party hero who defeated Eric Cantor last week in the GOP primary, in many ways to be down right scary.  He's in bed with the Christian Right - the Tea Party is after all 85-90% far right Christian - and certainly is no friend to gays or anyone who isn't a white heterosexual conservative Christian.  But, as a piece in Politico notes - he also is no friend of those in the GOP who are striving to return America to the Gilded Age of 100+ years ago.  In fact, a some of his economic positions almost sound liberal when he is condemning wealth disparity and rapacious big business. Thus, Brat may well be the unexpected leader of a revolt against the agenda of the Koch brothers and others of their ilk within the GOP who see themselves as a reincarnation of the robber barons of old.  Here are some article highlights:

All of these explanations [as to why Cantor lost] may be at least partially true. But perhaps the enduring significance of this election will be that Brat’s campaign was a textbook example of the new right-wing populism. It also revealed affinities with populist campaigns going back to the 19th century as well as curious similarities with left-wing populism in more recent years.

The most striking aspect of Brat’s core stump speech is that while he is caustically critical of politicians from both parties, his main target is business and the “gazillionaires” who suck up a disproportionate share of America’s wealth. He blasts his opponent for having voted for TARP (thereby rewarding the big banks, Wall Street and America’s Chinese creditors) and the farm bill (enriching huge agribusiness), as well as for watering down the STOCK Act, which would have prevented members of Congress from engaging in insider trading. But Cantor’s real puppet-masters, according to Brat, are the “crony capitalists” on K Street and nefarious business organizations like the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable. Cantor is “completely beholden to corporate interests” and seeks “to sell America to the highest bidder.”

There’s some truth to this critique. As one Wall Street Journal headline on his big-money ties succinctly put it, “Eric Cantor’s loss a blow to Wall Street.”

But Brat goes further. Business influence is so entrenched and widespread on Capitol Hill, he says, that “There is just one party up in D.C. right now”: the money-and-power party. While the “donor class” has easy access to Congress, the business-controlled government is not just indifferent to average citizens but actively despises them and wants to take away their freedoms. The government is actively persecuting ordinary people through NSA spying, IRS investigations and regulations that force families to spend their money on expensive light bulbs rather than food. And the public has no voice, since business controls the media while establishment Republicans like Cantor silence voters through “slating”and other machine-politics tactics. The result is that the United States has become a ruined, broken country . . . . .

[A]lthough Brat depicts illegal immigration as the No. 1 national problem, he focuses his ire not so much on the immigrants themselves as on the corporate interests that require their political lackeys to vote for open borders and amnesty. The “big guys” thereby get to enjoy cheap immigrant labor while also benefiting from immigrants driving down wages for American workers.

Much of Brat’s rhetoric could have been lifted directly from the 1892 platform of the People’s Party, better known as the Populists. Like Brat, the Populists of old declared that they were living in “a nation brought to the verge of moral, political, and material ruin.” At the root of this corruption were big businesses and great fortunes that dominated both parties, silenced public opinion and “subsidized or muzzled” the media.

I suspect that the so-called GOP establishment does not want to see too many more David Brats come to the fore.  

The GOP's Frankenstein Monster

As the post mortems continue in the wake of Eric Cantor's primary defeat on Tuesday, many excuses are being made - e.g., Cantor lost touch with his constituents - that try to avoid the fundamental reason that Cantor lost:  the GOP is now the party of unreason and extremism.  The GOP that many of us grew up with simply no longer exists.  What killed it?  The Christofascists, both those who parade around as "family values" advocates and those who hide under the Tea Party label.  Even when not winning primaries such as the one that sealed Cantor's fate, the truth is that what now passes as "moderate" positions are far to the right of what the GOP once stood for.  Religious fanaticism and thinly veiled white supremacist positions were once not mainstream GOP values. And most certainly, the proud rejection of knowledge and reason were not GOP values as I was growing up in a family of Republicans.  A piece in the Washington Post looks at the  slow death of the GOP at the hands of its self-created Frankenstein monster.  Here are excepts:

The Republican Party’s reliance on tea party support is like an addict’s dependence on a dangerous drug: It may feel good at first, but eventually it eats you alive.

No House majority leader had ever been ousted in a primary before Eric Cantor’s shocking defeat on Tuesday. Republicans who tell themselves it was Cantor’s own fault — he lost touch with his Virginia district, he tried to have it both ways on immigration, he came to be seen as part of the Washington establishment — are whistling past the graveyard.

[A] powerful incumbent, running in a district whose boundaries were custom-designed for his benefit, lost by an incredible 11 percentage points.

There can be no doubt that the tail is now wagging the dog. The tea party should no longer be thought of as just a faction of the GOP. It’s calling the shots.

Certainly, other Republican incumbents have managed to survive this primary season, with the possible exception of Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi, who is thought likely to lose a runoff against tea-party-backed challenger Chris McDaniel. But many establishment Republicans have hung on by claiming the tea party’s radical vision as their own.

Brat believes in fiscal restraint, which is a standard Republican position — until it veers into nihilistic territory such as refusing to raise the debt ceiling, as most tea party Republicans in the House have consistently voted. He questions the federal role in setting education policy — at a time when U.S. schools, by almost any measure, are falling behind.

Brat also opposes comprehensive immigration reform that could provide a path to citizenship for the more than 11 million men, women and children who are in the United States without papers. This is the issue that brought conservative radio talk show hosts Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin to endorse and campaign for him.

Republican intransigence on reform threatens to make Latinos — the biggest minority group in the nation — a longtime loyal constituency of the Democratic Party. If this happens, simple arithmetic makes it hard to imagine how Republicans will be able to compete in national elections.

In other words, the tea party is pushing the GOP toward ideological purity and electoral marginalization. Smart Republicans don’t want to walk off the cliff. But deviating from the tea party path, as Cantor did, can mean being sent home.

The GOP has to decide whether it intends to participate responsibly in the enterprise of government or stand on the sidelines, shouting invective and throwing stones. One of which just hit the majority leader of the House of Representatives in the head.

 The GOP of old is dead and gone.  I do not see how it can be saved from the monster that the "GOP establishment" allowed to infect the party.

Did Democrats Do In Cantor?

David Brat

Here in Virginia one does not register by political party.  Hence at primary time, one can vote in either party primary but not both.  Some speculate that Democrats may have voted for Cantor's challenger in the hope that a more extreme GOP candidate might be easier to defeat in November.  Here's a sample of speculation via Andrew Sullivan:

A reader writes:

I live in the 7th District in Virginia, and I am a Democrat who voted for David Brat in the open primary. There has been a whisper campaign going on among the Democrats in the district for the last few weeks and it resulted in many Democrats coming out to vote for Brat. We felt especially encouraged after the 7th District committee nominated Jack Trammell to be the Democratic candidate for the seat last Sunday. We now feel we at least have a fair chance at winning it. (By the way, Jack Trammell is a professor at the same small college as Brat, Randolph-Macon.)

Well, not quite the Democrats of Mickey’s dreams, I guess. Update from a reader:

Here’s a theory to support your reader who, though a Democrat, voted for Brat: in 2012, roughly 47,000 people voted in the 7th District Republican primary. This time, roughly 65,000.  Now let’s assume that of those 18,000 new voters, 16,000 were Democrats voting to axe Cantor, then rework the numbers if they hadn’t voted: Cantor would then have had around 29,000+ votes, and Brat would have had around 20,000+.  Which would have worked out to approximately 59% for Cantor, which is where he was at in 2012 and much closer to his internal polling showing him with a lead of 34% among likely REPUBLICAN voters.

I’m thinking time will show that Democrats in his district were fed up with him, and decided to do something about it.

Based on past experience when Democrats have voted in GOP primaries - usually to ensure the victory of the moderate GOP candidate such as former Senator John Warner - the speculation is within the realm of the possible. 

The Seismic Political Consequences of Eric Cantor’s Stunning Loss

The pundits and talking heads on both sides of the political aisle totally missed  the coming defeat of Eric Cantor by a largely unknown and poorly funded Tea Party warrior.  Over at Bearing Drift, the various elements of Teabagistan are exulting in Cantor's demise.   Meanwhile the GOP establishment has learned that it is dangerous to be cocky and that there is still life in the Frankenstein monster known as the Tea Party.  What's frightening is that Cantor's loss will embolden the lunatic elements of the GOP.  Meanwhile, being well of aware of the religious extremism of the Tea Party which has about an 85% identification with far right Christians, I cannot help but wonder if Cantor's Jewish faith wasn't somehow in play.  Here in Virgina, there is little doubt that the far right of the GOP wants a Christian theocracy.  Here are excepts from the Washington Post on the shock waves following Cantors rout last night:

The defeat of the second-ranking Republican in the House by an ill-funded, little-known tea party-backed candidate ranks as the biggest Congressional upset in modern memory and will immediately generate a series of political and policy-related shockwaves in Washington and the Richmond-area 7th district.

"People don't know how to respond because it's never been contemplated," said one Virginia Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Cantor's loss. (Worth noting: Cantor didn't just lose. He got walloped; David Brat, his challenger, won 56 percent to 44 percent.)

In conversations with a handful of GOP operatives in the aftermath of Cantor's loss --  a loss blamed largely on an inept campaign consulting team that misread the level of vitriol directed at the candidate due to his place in Republican leadership and the perception he supported so-called "amnesty" for illegal immigrants -- there were several common threads about what it means for politics inside and outside the House.

1. Immigration reform is dead. I'm not sure it was ever really alive in the House -- we've written plenty about how the average House Republican has zero incentive to support any immigration reform -- but Cantor's loss ensures that even chatter about making minor changes will disappear.  Anytime an incumbent -- and particularly a well-funded incumbent like Cantor -- loses there are lots of reasons for the defeat, but this one will be cast as a rebuke of any moderation on immigration.

2. House legislative activity will cease.  Again, there wasn't a heck of a lot of grand legislative plans before Cantor's loss. But, that trickle will totally dry up now as Republican members avoid doing anything -- literally, anything -- that could be used against them in the many primaries still to come this summer and fall.  Members will be afraid of their own shadows.

3. The "establishment strike back" storyline will disappear.... In the space of the last week, the narrative that the establishment has finally figured out how to beat the tea party has exploded. First, state Sen. Chris McDaniel finished ahead of Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran in the state's GOP primary. Now, the Cantor loss.

4. ....Tea party challenges will surge.  David Brat -- and McDaniel if he wins -- will become the newest tea party heroes, taking their places alongside the likes of Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Mike Lee (Utah). In the near term, that will embolden tea partiers who seemed dead in the water in their own attempts to take out incumbents.  . . . . In the longer term, there's every reason to believe that other prominent members of the GOP leadership -- in the House and Senate -- will  face tea-party challenges come 2016.

5. The race to replace John Boehner as Speaker is now wide open. We've written before about how difficult it will be for Boehner to hold on to his Speakership -- assuming Republicans keep the majority this fall. But now the heir apparent has been dragged under by a conservative uprising.  The third man in command -- House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) -- is not exactly a tea party darling or stylistically speaking, the sort of hard-liner that the most conservative wing in the House likes.

Cantor's defeat will continue to send rumbles through the political system for the next few days -- and even weeks and months.

It will be interesting, entertaining and in some ways frightening to watch the GOP civil war continue.  The nation truly cannot afford for the GOP to be completely taken over by party elements that openly celebrate the embrace of ignorance and out right racism and homophobia.

Eric Cantor Loses to Tea Party Challenger!

I hold no love for Congressman Eric Cantor who I have long viewed as a sleazy political whore only too willing to sell out to the ugliest elements in the GOP base.  Thus, normally, I'd be happy to see him go down in electoral defeat.  But today Cantor has apparently lost the GOP primary for his district to a Tea Party candidate who makes Cantor look not only sane but reasonable.  Truly no one seems to have seen this coming, including his primary challenger David Brat who was out spent by Cantor many times over.  With 94% of the precincts reporting, Cantor is down by more than 7000 votes.  The take away for Democrats is that turning out their base in November is absolutely critical because the Republican base is like a bunch of rabid dogs that WILL turn out.  Here are highlights from the Richmond Times Dispatch on today's surprising results:

Economist David Brat of Randolph-Macon College has upset House Majority Leader in a Republican primary, a stunning defeat for the veteran congressman who appeared next in line to become speaker of the House.

Brat, a professor with little name ID toppled a Republican titan who had not faced a close challenge since he was first elected in 2000.

Brat, dwarfed by Cantor in spending, drummed home the immigration issue, accusing the incumbent of favoring "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. Cantor denied the charge, saying only that children of illegal immigrants should not suffer because their parents brought them into the country.

A thunderous cheer went up at Brat's victory party at an office park in Glen Allen, when word reached people in the crowd that AP had called the contest.

Brat does not want to speak publicly until he is absolutely sure, perhaps a sign that he is almost as shocked as Cantor must be.
The stormy Republican primary in the 7th District has exposed discontent among Republican Party activists and has drawn national attention. Immigration reform drew much debate during the contest that played out in voters’ mailboxes and through TV ads.

The winner of the primary will face Democrat John “Jack” Trammell.

Cantor held a massive cash advantage but Brat drew some star power, including talk radio host Laura Ingraham who held a rally for Brat in Cantor’s own backyard.

Politico has added details and looks at the earthquake this represents for Washington DC and Congress:

It’s one of the most stunning losses in modern House politics, and completely upends the GOP hierarchy in Virginia and Washington. Cantor enjoyed a meteoric rise that took him from chief deputy whip, to minority whip to majority leader in the span of 13 years. He had long been seen as John Boehner’s successor as speaker.

The loss will ripple across Washington, too: from political consultants who worked for Cantor to his aides who decamped for K Street, there will be reverberations.

There were warning signs that kept piling up. In April, Brat supporters vastly outnumbered Cantor allies at local GOP meetings. Then in May, tea party fueled activists knocked off Cantor’s choice for local GOP chair in Cantor’s home base of Henrico County. But Cantor’s aides consistently brushed off the challenge, telling reporters and fellow GOP aides that the contest didn’t merit the media coverage it was getting.

Brat severely trailed in fundraising, pulling in $200,000 this cycle compared to Cantor’s $2 million.  But Cantor took the primary challenge seriously.

Like the Christofascists who they welcomed with open arms out of short term expediency, the GOP establishment at first welcomed the Tea Party.  Now they face a double Frankenstein monster of their own creation.

The Virginia GOP Civil War Continues Fueled by Far Right Crazies

Watching the Virginia GOP as it's infighting raises the possibility of internal self-destruction makes for great entertainment.  The contestants in the battle are (i) the few sane, pragmatic, if craven Republicans who have not fled the GOP insane asylum arrayed against (ii) the spittle fleck crazies of the Christofascists/Tea Party (and, based on Facebook interaction with a former GOP colleague who has seemingly drunk deeply from the far right Kool-Aid, once sane Republicans who have sold their souls to extremism).   And this fight has national overtones as the knuckle dragging Neanderthals of the Virginia GOP base target Eric Cantor and other Congressional Republicans who, despite their sleazy self-prostitution, are rational and sane compared to the spittle stained lunatics of the Christofascist/Tea Party factions.   A post at Virginia Free Citizen symbolizes the descent into insanity of the GOP base.  Here are highlights:

Criticizing a Republican’s unethical behavior is shunned, unless condemnation is directed at one more conservative than you. “Don’t criticize a Republican.” When the six point message of our creed is rejected to secure power, there will be no participation in kum ba yah moments around Republican campfires; I cannot “just get along.”


Hundreds of “happy campers,” attending Virginia Beach’s Big Tent meeting for the first time were purged for power. Eric Cantor’s Young Guns destroyed years of coalition building. Where did Cantor’s “Fledgling Firearms” secure their “basic training” – Mitch McConnell, Karl Rove, Amelia Island?

A Freedom of Information Act request for Campbell County email addresses was used to tell employees that Republican extremists would eliminate their jobs if they did not participate in the Republican mass meeting. “Sign the loyalty oath; it doesn’t matter.” Democrats helped eliminate convention delegates, including the candidate seeking chairmanship of the 5^th District and a House of Delegates member. Parliamentarian for the evening’s festivities was Mike Thomas, Vice Chair of the State Central Committee, Mr. Slating 101, and one of Cantor’s Big Three.

Cantor disenfranchised voters, promoted divisiveness Virginia Congressional districts, and violated the principles that define Virginia’s GOP. Where is the condemnation from Republican Party leadership, State Central, US Congressmen, Virginia Senators or House of Delegates? Is winning at any cost ever acceptable? Have money and retribution silenced the statesmen and hindered the penman? Why are leaders blind, deaf, and mute to Cantors’ destruction of our Big Tent message?
Should we ignore the obvious because of Cantor’s position? No one is that important – no one. Cantor’s behavior mocks leadership. The Virginia Beach and Campbell County tomfooleries ridiculed principled leadership. Cantor is not principled. He needs no power.

Make no mistake.  I view Eric Cantor as little better than a power hungry, opportunistic whore.  But compared to the crazies at  The Family Foundation and within Tea Party circles, he comes off as the height of rationality.  Until the Christofascists/Tea Party crowd are driven back into the political wilderness, don't expect any responsible behavior for the GOP.

The Virginia GOP's Civil War Continues

Today's Republican Party of Virginia bears little resemblance to the party I belonged to for years and in which I held a city committee precinct chair for eight years.  Now, those who were viewed as crackpots and treated like the crazy old aunt that one found embarrassing are more or less mainstream.  Meanwhile, most of the sane moderates I knew have fled the insane asylum that the Virginia GOP has become.   And the insanity is nowhere near ending.  A piece in the conservative blog Bearing Drift illustrates this point as insurgents vow to continue their assault on Eric Cantor and others deemed "not conservative enough."  Here are highlights:

Apparently, there was an event over the weekend in which the forces of light overcame the legions of darkness. Or maybe it was the 7th district GOP convention doing its best Monty Python imitation. While I agree with what Jim wrote here, and D.J. McGuire wrote here, I can’t help but be amused by the following quote in Tony Lee’s write-up of the affair:

[Pat] McSweeney said Saturday’s outcome has energized Brat’s supporters who outnumbered Cantor’s allies and has convinced doubters that a victory for Brat is at least still “plausible” in June if Brat can raise enough money and ride the momentum provided by Gruber’s win to his advantage.

He also said Saturday’s victory would have a long-term impact.

“The Tea Party and conservative insurgents now realize that they are no longer insurgents, but have prevailed,” McSweeney told Breitbart News. “They will make an effort to neutralize the impression that they are angry, negative people by urging the establishment folks to stay involved in working with the conservatives to build the Party. They will concentrate on pushing a positive policy agenda.”

An intramural party scrum will not affect the outcome of the 7th district primary. Mr. Cantor will win, but his margin is an open question. Anything less than 60 percent all but guarantees him a challenge in 2016 from the camp currently advising Mr. Brat. Very likely, with the new district leadership, they will attempt to put the race to a nominating convention (though the Virginia code would seem to indicate otherwise…more fun for lawyers ahead).

And now regarding what Pat said…

He is absolutely right that the new 7th district leadership will have to “neutralize the impression that they are angry.” That will be a tall order for some — on both sides. Overcoming hurt feelings, warnings of doom and mutual anathemas would be a chore for anyone. As for the idea of pushing a “positive policy agenda,” yes, that does need to happen. It has always been necessary, regardless of who is in charge. But I also believe D.J. McGuire is correct when he wrote:

…based on emails and comments I have seen, it looks like Saturday was all about personalities. That saddens me. There are good reasons to be upset with Eric Cantor (chief among them, the bank bailout), but it appears much of the GVRB is about settling scores and assuaging grudges.

The task ahead is to see who will step forward and be the grown-up who wants to get things done. So far, the field is full of two-year olds.  And boy, do they have a laundry list of grievances:

“We’re not convinced that the fight over the nomination method going forward has been settled. We expect to have that fight next year and in 2016 and 2017,” McSweeney said. He noted that Ed Gillespie, who is running for Senate this year in what is possibly a trial run for a gubernatorial campaign in 2017, and Cantor “represent what remains of the old Bush machine in Virginia” and the “outcome yesterday will give Gillespie heartburn.

Mr. Gillespie, take note: they are coming for you, too

Civil War Continues in Virginia GOP - Cantor Heckled by Christofascists/Tea Party

Just as the national Republican Party finds itself struggling with insurgent lunatics from the Christofascist/Tea Party elements, the Virginia GOP is seeing itself torn apart by these same toxic elements.  A fight in Eric Cantor's own home district highlights the problem that the growing insanity of the "godly folk" who too often are allowed to hide behind the Tea Party moniker.  That the second most powerful Republican in the House of Representatives cannot control the crazy elements in his own district speaks to the level of the swamp fever afflicting the GOP.   The Washington Post has details on the illness afflicting the Virginia GOP.  Here are some excerpts:

SHORT PUMP, VA. — Just a few miles from his family home, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) felt the wrath of the tea party Saturday, when activists in his congressional district booed and heckled the second-most powerful House Republican.

They also elected one of their own to lead Virginia’s 7th Congressional District Republican Committee, turning their back on Cantor’s choice for a post viewed as crucial by both tea party and establishment wings in determining control of the fractured state GOP.

Former lieutenant governor Bill Bolling, pushed out of last year’s governor’s race by a similar party schism, said he was “extremely disappointed” by the results of the vote, in which longtime Cantor loyalist and incumbent Linwood Cobb was unseated by tea party favorite Fred Gruber.

“Clearly, there is a battle taking place for the heart and soul of the Republican Party,” Bolling said in a statement. “While the voice of every Republican should be heard, our challenge is to figure out how to be a conservative party, without allowing the most extreme voices of the day to control our party and determine its future direction.”

Cantor appeared with his family at the event, where Republicans had packed the house. He was there in part to address his own reelection prospects. He faces David Brat, a tea-party backed opponent, in a June 10 primary that will be open to all voters in the district.

Any sign that Cantor’s support has slipped among the region’s most active Republicans could spell a tougher challenge during next month’s election. And some of the crowd’s reaction Saturday when Cantor took a shot at Brat made clear that the Republican majority leader has not yet fully shored up support.

Infighting and Swamp Fever Dominate Virginia GOP

There are those who make the cry that the Republican Party can be changed from within.  It's a claim that I do not subscribe to given the manner in which the Christofascists/Tea Party crowd, white supremacist (who more often than not are one and the same as the Christofascists/Tea Party) and no tax lunatics have been allowed to infiltrate local city and county committees all across Virginia.  Of late, a few seem to finally be realizing that these folks are like a metastasizing cancer and efforts are being made to limit the ability of the extremists and outright crazy elements on local committees and at mass meetings to drive the GOP further into crazy land and/or select committee chairs and party candidates.  A nasty civil war has ensued with those trying to limit insanity being labeled as Nazis or worse.  A column in the Richmond Times Dispatch looks at the ongoing civil war.  Here are some column excerpts:

In increasingly Democratic Henrico, Republicans more often than not speak in one voice — a reminder of the control over the party apparatus by a local boy made good: Eric Cantor, the U.S. House majority leader and could-be speaker. But because of Cantor’s adversaries — his tea party primary opponent and others disdainful of Cantor’s more traditional brand of Republicanism — the latest mass meeting, to some, seemed mass confusion.

In recent weeks, this pattern has been playing out across Virginia as factions struggle for control of a Republican Party reduced to a regional presence by a string of Democratic statewide victories. The current infighting, in which Cantor loyalists figure prominently, is a preliminary to the main event in 2016: the battle for the GOP’s governing body, the central committee. It will be concurrent with the presidential race in purple Virginia.

In suburban Virginia Beach and rural Campbell and Buckingham counties, to name a few, Republicans have engaged in the parliamentary equivalent of hand-to-hand combat.

These battles — over leadership, organization and convention delegates — can be vicious. It’s because the stakes are comparatively low: dominance of local GOP committees, many of which have few members. That’s a reflection of the changing Virginia. Democrats are attracting the young, Asians and Hispanics. The Republican base is dominated by aging whites.

The internal combat is of the Republican Party’s own making. Elective Republicans openly court libertarians, home-schoolers and property rights advocates who have flooded the party since 2010. Their muscle is institutionalized by partisan gerrymandering, which forces Republicans further right, fueling partisan impasse — most recently, in Richmond, over spending and health care.

In Henrico, anti-Establishment Republicans narrowly rejected a Cantor loyalist, county GOP chairman Don Boswell, a former sheriff, to lead the mass meeting. Instead, these activists installed an interloper from Stafford County, about 60 miles north: Russ Moulton, former 1st District Republican chairman.  No friend of Cantor, Moulton has made a name for himself training tea partyers and Paulians in Republican rules and other organizational esoterica.

This way, this crowd is becoming part of the GOP fabric. But it also is a threat to comparatively mainstream Republicans such as Cantor. He favors open-to-all primaries for choosing a nominee because they minimize the right’s influence. Moulton and Co. prefer member-only conventions because they maximize it.

As Cantor’s enemies see it, naming Moulton as temporary chairman short-circuited any effort at slating and spotlighted momentum for Dave Brat, the congressman’s remaining opponent in the June primary. Further, it raises anew a nettlesome question for Cantor: If he can’t bring his party together at home, how can he do it in Washington? But then, who can?

Fred Gruber, a tea party guy from Louisa County, is running. He’s apparently not making friends by — according to Republican blogs — comparing his foes to Nazis. That’s always risky, more so when Cantor, the dominant political figure in the Henrico-anchored 7th District, is the only Jewish Republican in Congress.

This is another instance of the personal nature of Republican Party politics, and how it is magnified by the intimacy of caucuses, conventions and committees, all of which are about preserving the power of the few. Rivalries span generations. Grudges are nursed, not forgotten. Egos must be stroked.

In Virginia Beach, the Republican mass meeting was a rumble. More than 600 people were there in an Establishment drive, dependent on slating, to wrest the party from the upstarts. It may have worked.

In Buckingham, the new Republican leader is a pastor who longtime activists said they’d not heard of until he arrived at the mass meeting at the county agriculture center Wednesday.

As I have said many times, the Republican establishment created a Frankenstein monster when it allowed in the Christofascist, Tea Party and white supremacist focusing only on short term opportunity.   Now, the monster is proving difficult to kill.