More Sunday Male Beauty

 

The Economic Numbers Are Brutal for Trump

Remember all the post 2024 election interviews where individuals said they voted for the Felon because of his promises to reduce inflation and to bring down consumer prices?  More a year into the Felon's second regime both promises have not been kept and, in fact, inflation has increased, prices have continued to increase, and job creation is in the negative range.  Usher in the Felon's war of choice against Iran and the inflationary forces are greatly increased with some saying that gas prices will likely come to exceed $4.00 per gallon. Where are the screams of pickup driving, Felon voting bubbas that we heard against Joe Biden?  One has to wonder how much more it will take before some of the MAGA base realized that they were conned by the Felon, the equivalent of a carnival barker whose policies have only increased his own wealth and been a boon to the billionaire class and, of course, the so-called "Epstein class."  And did I mention that Iran reports that Russia and China are giving Iran aid in the  war with the USA even as the Felon reduced sanctions on Russian oil? A piece at The New Republic looks at the reality of the tanking U.S. economy which is far different than the lies and talking points of the Felon and his sycophants in Congress.  Here are article highlights:

The likelihood is growing that the economy will be in recession when voters cast their ballots in the midterm elections. Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised its 12-month estimation of a recession’s probability from 20 percent to 25 percent, and on Friday morning Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, put the likelihood at 34 percent within the next nine and a half months. Even if we don’t see an outright recession, Trump’s economic policies are plainly failing.

The most immediate economic problem is the Iran war, which on Friday morning had oil trading at about $100 per barrel, even after the Treasury Department rather pathetically lifted sanctions on Russian oil for tankers already at sea. In effect, war with Iran is compelling Trump to partially surrender to Russia in the Ukraine war—even as Russia helps Iran target U.S. forces in the Middle East—and it isn’t even working. Oil prices are still going through the roof. The Democrats’ attack ad writes itself.

Economic indicators were starting to go south even before the war started on February 28. According to a revised Commerce Department estimate released Friday morning, gross domestic product growth slowed to 0.7 percent from October through December 2025, down from 4.4 percent from July through September. Previously the Commerce Department knew GDP growth had dropped (the first estimate was 1.4 percent), but the growth figure turned out to be half what Commerce initially thought. A big part of the problem was reduced government spending at the state and local level. Yes, Virginia, government spending increases GDP, and one out of every three dollars in state spending lately has originated from the feds, who cut Medicaid and food stamps in Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill and impounded or otherwise clawed back assorted state grants. The government shutdown last fall further reduced federal aid to states during the fourth quarter.

Another major reason for weak economic growth was that imports grew from October through December, reaching a record high even as Trump slapped tariffs hither and yon. Judged as a revenue-raiser, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were a great success, raising an estimated $160 billion. But judged as trade policy, the tariffs were a dismal failure, because tariffs are supposed to make people Buy American, not pay more to keep buying foreign products. That just fuels inflation, and according to the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index, core inflation (i.e., minus volatile food and energy prices) was 3 percent in January. That’s significantly higher than when Trump took office one year before, after getting elected promising to reduce inflation. Rising oil prices will now send non-core inflation higher.

The trade deficit, we learned this week, narrowed in January, from $73 billion to $55 billion. (This was before the Supreme Court killed the Liberation Day tariffs.) Good news, right? Not really. The main reason was a stampede by overseas buyers to purchase American gold. That was a vote of no confidence in American dollars and American Treasury bills. Out of a $15 billion increase in exports, $4.7 billion was gold, and when you add in other precious metals, such foreign stockpiling accounts for more than half the increase. The dollar’s value fell more than 9 percent in 2025, its biggest annual drop since 2017.

Did I mention that job creation was also down before the war started? . . . . the latest jobs report showed that 92,000 jobs were lost in February, which is not good, though we’ll need one or two more monthly reports to identify this as a trend.

Uncertainty about whether Trump seeks a regime change in Iran makes all of this worse. On some days he wants one, and on other days he doesn’t. But even (especially?) if the war ends next week, the instability it created will continue to disrupt an economy that was already headed for trouble before it began. If I didn’t know any better, I’d guess Trump was deliberately trying to throw the midterm elections to the Democrats. That’s not his intention, of course. He’s just really bad at this.

Sunday Morning Male Beauty

 

More Saturday Male Beauty

 

Oil Prices Are Not the Only Costs Rising

As prior posts have noted, the Felon and his band of would be Rambo's seemingly gave little thought to and even less planning for the impacts the Felon's war of choice against Iran would have on both the USA and the global economy.  Adding to the planning debacle is the fact that the Felon's "Secretary of War" fired large numbers of members of the military command he deemed "too woke" - including roughly 160 experienced individuals tasked with making sure civilian deaths are minimized - who might have cautioned about what would flow from a sustained attack on Iran.  Now, the world finds the Straight of Hormuz essentially closed to shipping and oil prices surging - something competent planning would have factored in - even as the Felon has directed assaults on Iran's main oil terminal and Iran promises to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. As a lengthy piece in Politico lays out, the price surges will not be limited to oil and gas but will also impact everything from fertilizer needed by America's already struggling farmers to semiconductors.  With perhaps a majority of American voters concerned about affordability - something the Felon calls a "hoax" - the Felon's war of choice will only exacerbate rising consumer costs. Yes, the military has performed well, but the negative economic impact may only be beginning. Here are article highlights:

The war with Iran is driving up more than gasoline prices. It is beginning to hit semiconductors, medical imaging, backyard gardens and even children’s party balloons.

While much of the world is focused on how Iran’s essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is damaging global energy markets, other key industries risk getting hit by similar price inflation. That’s because Hormuz is also a major shipping route for helium and fertilizer, which both affect a wide sector of the economy and are now experiencing price spikes as ships bottleneck on both sides of the strait.

“The longer it goes on, the more serious it’s going to get,” said Rich Gottwald, CEO of the Compressed Gas Association.The expected price icreases come as the Trump administration attempts to assuage voters’ concerns over cost-of-living, and Republicans worry that the war’s ripple effects will hamstring their prospects in November.

Iran has now effectively blocked ships from crossing the strait, through which 20 percent of the world’s daily oil and natural gas supply travels, inflicting pain on global energy markets by driving the price of crude to roughly $100 a barrel. Iran’s new leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, indicated Thursday that won’t change soon, pledging that “the lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must also continue to be used.”

About a third of both the global helium and fertilizer supply passes through Hormuz. Half of the global supply of urea – a nitrogen-based fertilizer– and almost a third of the ammonia supply run through the straits, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Prices are already spiking since global supplies are taking a hit right as many agricultural producers are beginning their Spring plants. Urea prices have jumped 30 percent since the Trump administration began bombing Iran, according to the Fertilizer Institute.

Meanwhile, helium spot prices have doubled since the war began, said Anish Kapadia, CEO of market research firm AKAP Energy. Qatar’s state-run energy firm halted liquified natural gas production in the first days of the war and it is estimated it will take months to get it back up and running. The nation is a major producer of helium, which is a byproduct of liquefied natural gas production.

Semiconductor manufacturers heavily rely on helium to prevent certain chemical reactions in production, Gottwald said. MRIs also need helium to cool the magnets the machines need to function. Welding is also heavily reliant on helium. Meanwhile, party balloons account for about 10 to 20 percent of the market.

Interruptions or price spikes to semiconductor manufacturing could hit global markets for everything from computers to smartphones to vehicles to medical equipment.

“A lot of the world doesn’t run without semiconductors and you can’t make semiconductors without helium, period,” Gottwald said. “That will probably add pressure from a political perspective from all different countries around the world.”

The losses are already beginning to mount.  Pressure on the helium market won’t deflate for months because Qatar’s natural gas production facilities were damaged in the fighting, said Anish Kapadia, CEO of market research firm AKAP Energy. After the strait is reopened, he said, it would then take a while to put back into place specialized transportation containers, which are chilled to a temperature close to zero Kelvin, roughly negative-460 degrees Fahrenheit. So, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, it would take two months for the market to return to normal, he said.

The U.S. is the world’s leading supplier of helium, followed by Qatar. But, like any other commodity sold on the global market, the price of domestic supplies will jump as shortages ripple through the international supply. . . . . If the shutdown lasts for two months, he expects “broader stress” and an increase of 25 to 50 percent.

“If the disruption stretches to three months, I would expect genuine shortages outside the best-buffered regions, especially in parts of Europe and Asia,” which are particularly reliant on Qatar’s supply. The majority of semiconductor manufacturing takes place in Asia.

Fertilizer demand in the U.S. is hitting just as the spring planting season begins.  The squeeze is hitting farmers on two fronts, with rising diesel fuel and fertilizer costs, American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall wrote in a letter to Trump this week. He noted that the cost increase could drive inflationary pressure on the U.S. economy while also threatening national security if fertilizer shortages cut production and drastically raised food prices.

“These supply chain shocks are expected to drive already record-high input prices even higher at a time when farm margins are already extremely tight and many farmers are underwater,” he wrote.

While the U.S. produces some types of fertilizer, other countries are heavily reliant on imports, particularly during seasonal demand peaks. For instance, 97 percent of potassium used in the U.S. is imported, as well as 18 percent of nitrogen and 13 percent of phosphate, according to AFBF. The crops that rely heavily on spring fertilizer applications include corn, cotton and wheat.

“We are deeply concerned that failure to act could lead to disruptions to the food supply chain not seen since 2022 when food price inflation reached 40- year highs,” Duvall warned. This time, without the strait fully open, there are few signs of relief.

“Storage fills, plants shut down, and the product simply does not reach the global market,” the center noted. “This is a harder form of supply disruption with no workaround.”

The irony will be that if prices surge at home, the Felon may have set the stage for Republican election losses in November.  Of course, all of this would have been thought through by a competent administration - something America clearly does not have currently.

Saturday Morning Male Beauty

 

More Friday Male Beauty

 

Trump’s Unpreparedness for the Iranian Oil Crisis

As of this morning, the Felon's war of choice against Iran continues, four more American military personnel have died (two more are missing), Iran keeps counter attacking, especially against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices are continuing to rise. Indeed, Iran has said it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and that it wants oil to hit $200 per barrel.  On the home front, yesterday saw two terror attacks - one in Norfolk just across the harbor - potentially related to the Iran war.  Meanwhile, as noted in prior posts, the Felon has no clear exit plan and seemingly is shocked at the impact of the war on the price of oily, something that any responsible planning should have taken into account. Indeed, both studies and past experience should have made it obvious that Iran would use the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as it number one economic weapon leading to economic damage to not only the USA but the world as a whole. One can attribute this lack of planning to hubris, dementia, having a circle of buffoons as the Felon's advisors of choice, but none of these excuses for the inexcusable lack of common sense planning.  A piece in The New Yorker looks at this idiocy and lack of any real plan:

Two weeks after the United States and Israel launched an air war on Iran, there has been no let up in the conflict—or its financial repercussions. On Thursday, Iran’s new Supreme Leader said that his country would keep closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows, and more vessels in the Persian Gulf were attacked, including two oil tankers that were set ablaze off the coast of Iraq. On world markets, the price of a barrel of crude jumped to more than a hundred dollars.

Here in the U.S., the price of gasoline has risen by about more than twenty per cent since the war began, and energy analysts warn that it could rise a lot further if the Strait isn’t reopened. The Dow has fallen by about four per cent. Donald Trump, having plunged the country into a potentially disastrous war, with no clear rationale or exit plan, is flailing around for ways to mitigate its economic consequences. On Thursday, he suggested in a social-media post that the U.S., as the world’s largest oil producer, makes a lot of money when prices go up—an argument that even the most slavish G.O.P. congressman facing a reëlection campaign might hesitate to embrace.

Perhaps the most startling thing about the whole situation is that the Trump Administration was apparently surprised by, and unprepared for, Iran’s capability to inflict economic pain on the U.S. and its allies. This despite the fact that during a showdown in Trump’s first term the regime in Tehran used the same tactics of threatening to block the Strait and of attacking oil infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states that are allied with the U.S. Whether out of arrogance, capriciousness, or collective amnesia, this recent history was ignored.

In 2018, after rashly pulling out of the nuclear deal that the Obama Administration had negotiated, Trump launched a “maximum pressure campaign” against the Islamic Republic, which included extensive sanctions on its oil industry, the country’s biggest revenue generator. The response from Tehran was robust. In February, 2019, the Navy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that if Iran had no buyers for its oil it would take military steps to close the Strait. Ultimately, it backed off—it was able to continue exporting oil to China and other countries that ignored the U.S. sanctions—but the government and its foreign proxies did carry out a campaign of aggression in and around the Gulf. In May and June of 2019, four oil tankers docked in the United Arab Emirates were sabotaged and two freight vessels, one Japanese-owned and the other Norwegian-owned, were damaged by Iranian mines in the Gulf of Oman, which sits below the Strait. Months later, in Saudi Arabia, drone attacks struck oil-pumping stations that were operated by Aramco, the state-run oil giant.

At the time, there was speculation that tensions between the U.S. and Iran could spiral into military conflict—Mike Pompeo, then Trump’s Secretary of State, had described one of Iran’s attacks on Aramco facilities as an “act of war.” The Columbia report considered various scenarios, including small-scale hostilities in the Gulf and a major war that closed the Strait of Hormuz and drew in other countries in the region. In the latter scenario, the price of a barrel of crude could spike up from sixty-five dollars to “$110–$170 after one month, $95–$125 after six months,” the report said. The good news, it went on, was that “none of the parties are interested in pursuing massive escalation and have shown little will to do so even as the crisis in the region has worsened.”

Enter Trump 2.0, whose addled mind seems to have difficulty keeping a thought in place for a few days, let alone for the six years that have passed since the previous showdown in the Gulf. . . . Trump signed the order for Operation Epic Fury, with eminently predictable results. Having survived the initial U.S.-Israeli onslaught, the Iranian regime rolled out an expanded version of its playbook from 2019, exploiting its choke hold on the Strait, while launching missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases and energy infrastructure in the Gulf states.

With the Strait effectively blocked and hundreds of tankers stranded, many millions of barrels of oil are stuck at sea. And as onshore storage facilities have filled up Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait have shut off some of their wells because they have nowhere to put the oil they produce. In volume terms, the hit to global supply is now the largest ever, energy analysts say, and, the longer the conflict goes on, the worse it will get. On an corporate earnings call last week, Amin Nasser, the chief executive of Aramco, said that a lengthy closure of the Strait would have “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil markets. Gas prices haven’t hit six dollars yet, but in parts of California they have come close. At a national level, the average price has risen from $2.94 a month ago to about $3.60, according to the American Automobile Association.

The previous time that Trump almost blundered into an economic catastrophe was on “Liberation Day,” nearly a year ago, when, from the Rose Garden, he announced punitive tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners. Financial markets, including the U.S. bond market, which lies at the heart of the global financial system, promptly went into a tailspin. . . . And with the midterms on the horizon the last thing that he and other Republicans want to talk about is higher gas prices.

But it turns out that doing a wartime TACO is considerably harder than doing a peacetime one. The decision to cease hostilities isn’t Trump’s alone; Israel and Iran also have a say. The potential loss of face is much larger: at least seven American service members have been killed in Operation Epic Fury, while more than a hundred have been wounded. And oil wells and refineries can’t be turned back on overnight. “Many processes are out of (Trump’s) hand,” Marko Kolanović, a financial commentator who was formerly co-head of global research at JPMorgan Chase, remarked online last week.

An extended period of higher energy prices would hit low- and middle-income households, many of which are already struggling to keep up with the cost. It could also feed through to higher inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold, or even raise them. Assuming the Senate confirms Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, an interest hike seems like an unlikely outcome, but the possibility of the Fed not responding to higher prices also raises awkward possibilities. If investors come to think that the central bank is going soft on inflation, there could be a big sell-off in the bond market. That would leave Trump in the same predicament he was in last year after Liberation Day.

Nothing is certain, except the fact that the President is floundering, making conflicting statements from one day to the next about how long the war will last. As it continues, rule at the whim of a strongman seems to be giving way to rule by slapstick. . . . Trump is turning into Oliver Hardy. Earlier this week, he said that he launched the war based on information he received from Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Pete Hegseth, and Marco Rubio that led him to believe Iran was preparing to attack the United States. The search for the fall guy is on. Only the truth is we are all Trump’s fall guys—not just Americans facing higher fuel bills but the inhabitants of other countries, particularly energy-importing ones, such as Japan, Germany, China, and India, which will bear the brunt of higher prices. Hopefully, that will be the full extent of the economic damage caused by Trump’s recklessness. It can’t be guaranteed. 

Friday Morning Male Beauty

 

More Thursday Male Beauty