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The GOP Plan to Kill Off Medicare and Social Security

Like so many Americans I have been paying into Social Security since I first started working as a teenager.  Yes, I am now receiving Social Security benefits but, since I am still working, I continue to pay into both Social Security and Medicare and for Medicare I pay the second highest monthly premium.  Yet according the the majority of Republicans, they describe the benefits as "entitlements" rather than something citizens have paid into over their lifetimes. Worse yet, Republicans whine that the programs are the cause of the nation's deficits, ignoring both the Felon's spending like a drunk sailor and the massive tax cuts the GOP gave to the very wealthy and large corporations. Adding insult to injury, Republicans refuse to increase the cap on the level of income subject to Social Security withholding. The feckless Mike Johnson - who hopefully losing his speakership position come January - has announced plans to assault the programs and further erode the financial security of millions of Americans, particularly the elderly who are poor. It's more of the GOP's reverse Robin Hood agenda of giving to the rich while taking from the poor.   A piece at Salon looks at this sinister and disingenuous plan:

One of the least remarked-upon chapters in the Republicans’ ghastly Project 2025 document dealt with their plan to cut Social Security and Medicare, ostensibly to fix the impending trust fund shortfall and eliminate the national deficit all at once. The reason hardly anyone talked about it is that if there’s one thing we know about Republicans, from the so-called moderates to the most extreme MAGA true believers, it’s that they want to do away with those commie pinko programs once and for all.

But there’s a problem: Nearly all Americans depend on those commie pinko programs to some extent, including many Republican voters. So the ideologues are always forced to couch their desire to slash federal spending to the bone in some version of “We have to kill the programs in order to save them.” Nobody buys it, and the world moves on.

Indeed, in all three of his presidential campaigns Donald Trump ran on promises to protect those programs, and under his leadership, other Republicans have mostly kept their plans on the down low. . . . .when Project 2025 was unveiled, it was all there. Among other things, they proposed to raise the retirement age to 69 or 70, alter the benefit schedule and cut disability payments. They wanted to move toward privatizing Medicare entirely by making its already-privatized side program, Medicare Advantage, the default choice for everybody so insurance companies can more easily deny care and reap even bigger profits.

But that was just the latest attack in a long history. The Heritage Foundation has been putting out these policy blueprints for decades, and every single one of them features some harebrained scheme to degrade or eliminate the retirement programs.

Never once, oddly enough, have they suggested raising the cap on the maximum earnings subject to Social Security taxes. Asking wealthier people to pay payroll taxes on wages above $185,000 would fund the system long into the future. But of course, that’s the last thing Republicans want. The whole point of their years of endeavor is to end it once and for all.

We might have thought that Trump’s promises would at least have kept the jackals at bay until he’s off the stage. But it’s pretty clear that our president has checked out and only cares about revenge, monuments, prizes and grift at this point. If the extremists around him can get him to believe that he’s building his legacy as the greatest president in history by “saving” the programs with some new privatization scheme akin to his “Trump baby bonds,” he’ll do it in a heartbeat. . . . So the GOP is overdue for another run at this.

Well, it looks like they’re gearing up for it. House Speaker Mike Johnson said this to a conservative radio host this week: The largest spending items, the reason we’re in trouble, are because over 74 percent of federal spending is on autopilot — mandatory spending, that is, your entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and things like Social Security — they have to be adjusted and fixed.

Maybe we could think about reversing some of those tax cuts for billionaires Johnson and Trump love so much. Or we could put a stop to Trump’s foreign adventures, which are costing the taxpayers untold billions. The Senate Armed Services Committee voted to approve Trump’s $1.15 trillion Pentagon budget last week, and Congress has appropriated $518 billion over the last year for the Department of Homeland Security to deport working people who are paying into Social Security with no prospect of ever collecting benefits. Maybe they could think about dialing back some of this reckless spending on wars and police actions that nobody wants and are making everyone poorer and less secure.

If the times are desperate, Mr. Speaker, it’s because the country is being run by people like you and Donald Trump, who seem determined to ruin it.

One might suspect Johnson knows that he’s not likely to be speaker next year, so there will be no legislation aimed at cutting the safety net programs. Their plan at this point is to maximally demagogue around the latest Social Security report, which says an impending shortfall of the Social Security “trust fund” — which is an accounting gimmick — will hit in 2032 or 2034.

That would effectively trigger a political crisis that endangers the program’s solvency, because that  “trust fund” is what allows the government to pay out Social Security benefits every year without a specific appropriation from Congress. If there’s a shortfall, as now predicted, Congress will have to make up the money. What are the odds Democrats will be able to do that, whether or not they hold a majority, without the draconian cuts Republicans are certain to demand? Imagine the government-shutdown scenarios that include older people not getting their checks. Given the extremist majority that now dominates the GOP, that’s a real possibility.

Economist Paul Krugman explains in his newsletter that the shortfall is actually quite modest and easily accounted for — if the government exercises some common sense. This problem is actually temporary because members of the the massive baby boom generation are now largely retired, and their numbers will gradually diminish in the years ahead. As mentioned above, we could rethink this crusade to deport many the workers who’ve been propping up the system for years, we could tax rich people on more of their income, and we could decide to do something about America’s outrageous income inequality, which is distorting everything.

Maybe we’ll do all of that this time around. But I’m not betting on it.

There’s a certain “boy who cried wolf” quality to the perennial alarms about the GOP’s lust to get rid of these big federal programs that go back to FDR’s New Deal (Social Security) and LBJ’s Great Society (Medicare). But make no mistake: The minute they actually get the chance to take them down, they will. There is no article of faith more fundamental to the American conservative creed than the premise that Social Security and Medicare are socialist programs that must be privatized or eliminated altogether. Even the fact that these are universal government programs, available to every American, goes against everything they believe in.

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Has the Felon's “White Working Class” Base Finally Had Enough?

The loyalty of white working class and rural whites to the Felon and the larger GOP has never made economic or financial sense given that the policies of both the Felon and the GOP as a whole favor the very wealthy while slashing Medicaid and social programs and threatening Social Security and Medicare (both of which could funded by eliminating the cap on incomes subject to deduction). Indeed, all that the Felon and the GOP offer to these voters is a stamp of approval of their hatreds and bigotries towards blacks, Hispanics, gays and highly educated city dwellers among others. This thrill of the endorsement of such prejudices is coming at an ever higher cost as the Felon has failed to rein in inflation in general and gas prices in particular.  A piece at Salon argues that some of this voter block is perhaps waking up to the reality that they have been conned and played for fools.  The November mid-term elections will reveal whether this realization of economic betrayal has truly taken root, but current indications should have Republicans very concerned:

Donald Trump threw himself a great big birthday party over the weekend, targeted to appeal to the famous white working-class voters who have formed the core of his base since the moment he came down that golden escalator. He transformed the White House lawn into a makeshift Colosseum and held a modern-day gladiatorial spectacle, officially called UFC Freedom 250. One participant vomited on himself and later made offensive comments about Michelle Obama, to the great amusement of the assembled crowd. But there are signs that this sort of cultural signifier may not be enough to keep the MAGA faithful on board anymore.

It’s always been a bit strange that this spoiled, Richie Rich-style heir to a real estate fortune could possibly become an avatar of the working class. He’s never known a moment of physical labor in his life and has nothing but contempt for any of the hard-fought regulations and rights that protect workers from the predations of the moneyed elite and give them a chance at the American dream.

One might have thought that all his ostentatious displays of wealth, compared to the squeeze working people have faced for at least the last generation, would at least make them skeptical. But as we’ve all discussed ad nauseam over the last couple of decades, tribal grievance tends to trump material self-interest among a large faction of the American electorate. 

But a big part of Trump’s appeal, and perhaps what binds him so closely to this group, is not so much that he has his finger on the pulse of blue-collar workers’ cultural gripes but that he also personally shares them. His wealth represents a sort of aspirational model for many people of that class, even though he inherited his wealth, mostly thank to the reality show that portrayed him as a hugely successful self-made businessman. If that guy can become a billionaire, the thinking went, so can I! 

Everything about that was fake, of course. But cults are generally led by charlatans, so that’s not surprising. When people want to believe in something badly enough, they disconnect their bullshit detectors to block out the dissonance. . . . . But despite Trump’s big fight-night birthday party and his upcoming Fourth of July celebration on the nation’s 250th anniversary, it seems possible that MAGA followers are waking up to the reality that their Dear Leader isn’t all that.

Trump’s big problem is that his lies about the economy are catching up to him. It was one thing when the detested Joe Biden oversaw a brief period of high inflation during the post-pandemic recovery. They knew who to blame. . . . But after a year and a half of the second Trump presidency, even they can’t lie to themselves anymore. He promised to banish inflation and it’s only gotten worse.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Trump’s approval rating among his base rural voters is now at 50%, down from 60% in February, with a disapproval rating of 48%, up from 34%. That voting bloc that went for Trump by 40 points in the 2024 election, but are now feeling the pinch of tariffs, high gas prices and the soaring cost of living in general. They’re not too happy about the Iran war either, whether there’s a “deal” or not.

A new Fox News poll has similar findings. Trump’s approval rating among his white rural base is now all the way down to 44%, a startling 33 points lower than at the beginning of his term. Only 16% of respondents said their financial situation had improved in the last two years, while 49% said they are worse off. Almost two-thirds of those polled, or 64%, said the cost of living is the most important economic problem they face, and fewer than one-third (30%) said they thought Trump was handling the issue. And there wasn’t much faith that he’s likely to make things better

This discontent isn’t found solely among rural voters. Trump is in trouble with blue-collar workers across the board. A New York Times analysis by Shane Goldmacher showed “an extraordinary swing … among white voters without college degrees between his first midterm election and now.” Back then, “working-class white voters approved of his management of the economy by margins of 30 percentage points or even more. Now, recent polls show them disapproving by anywhere from 14 to more than 30 points.” . . . . Republicans are responding to this problem by touting their tax cuts, and that’s not likely to get them anywhere. Everyone knows the bulk of those cuts went to the rich, and they certainly haven’t offset inflation. But what else do they have?

There isn’t a lot of positive news except for the soaring stock market, and that’s not much of a winning argument with blue-collar workers. Those who run focus groups report that working-class voters are well aware of Trump’s obsession with the White House ballroom and all the monuments to himself, and it’s not going down well. If he thinks the Marie Antoinette strategy is a big winner, he’s wrong.

This past weekend’s birthday festivities at the White House seem to have been a hit with mixed martial arts fans, a group that definitely overlaps with Trump’s voter base. . . . But the non-college-educated voters who have traditionally been his bedrock supporters are facing so much financial strain these days that his cultural affinities, even when they’re somewhat authentic, just don’t cut it. As the Emperor Nero could have told Trump, bread and circuses are a great combination, but they don’t work without the bread.

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Trump in Defeat in Iran

The criticism of the Felon's "deal" with Iran continues to mount on all sides of the political spectrum as Israel endangers the memorandum of understanding ("MOU") through continued attacks on Lebanon.  The Felon - who seemingly knows little or no history - and signed the MOU at the Hall of Mirrors at the Palace of Versailles, the same venue where Germany surrendered after WWI.  Perhaps Macron trolled the oblivious Felon.  One columnist at the New York Times reflects on the situation as follows: 

[A] compelling column calling [the Felon's] President Trump’s truce with Iran less a deal than a debacle. I couldn’t agree more. But doesn’t it perfectly fit this presidency’s pattern? Trump blusters about restored American greatness — about our country being the “hottest” in the world, whatever that means — while making it look smaller, sillier and stupider by the day.

An second column in the Times describes the debacle in these words:

Surely something about this preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran must have felt familiar to America’s real-estate mogul president. After all, it reads like a real-estate bankruptcy filing — an act of financial capitulation.

It is a measure of how much Iran had [the Felon] Trump over a barrel, and how thoroughly it cleaned his clock, that Iran’s lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, told Iranian state TV after the details were announced: “The agreement is a record of U.S. failure. People will see it and judge.”

You don’t need to be a foreign policy expert to see what happened here. You need to be a domestic policy expert. Trump sold out America’s ally in the war, Israel, and the Arab Gulf states for the swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan. Trump knew that the food inflation and high gasoline prices triggered by this war were a prescription for a Republican wipeout in the midterms. 

The Felon, of course, is claiming "victory" even though none of the supposed objectives of the war have been realized and Iran knows that control of the Strait of Hormuz provides never ending blackmail opportunities.  Meanwhile on the home front, a Fox News polls shows the following:

Only 12% say they are getting ahead financially, most think the economy is in bad shape, more than half think President Donald Trump’s policies benefit people who have money, and their outlook on the economy is negative. . . . Some 59% of voters feel pessimistic about the economy, . . . . Forty-four percent say they’re falling behind financially. . . . . Big picture, 37% are satisfied with the direction of the country. 

Both the de facto surrender to Iran and the mess on the domestic front are the direct fault of the Felon who (i) has pushed policies and tax cuts that benefit the very wealthy while punishing the working and middle classes (e.g., safety net spending cuts) , and (ii) launched his war of choice despite warnings from experts.   A piece in The Atlantic looks at the Felon's defeat:

[The Felon] President Trump lost. The war he waged against Iran promises to conclude in a humbling whimper with the signing of a cease-fire agreement later this week. The United States is left weaker, diminished militarily, strategically, economically, and perhaps morally.

The war, which the United States fought alongside Israel, accomplished none of the goals that Trump named at the outset. Instead, it only empowered the hard-liners in Tehran and arguably emboldened them to someday seek a nuclear weapon. Despite that, the president was so desperate for the war to end that he repeatedly backed off his threats—allowing Iran to call his bluff—and upbraided his close ally Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for responding to attacks in the region in a manner that jeopardized the negotiations.

[The Felon] Trump won’t admit to any of this. He has spent recent days furiously spinning the tentative deal as a clear win, and has seethed at unflattering comparisons with the deal that President Obama struck with Iran more than a decade ago, aides and outside advisers told me. Trump, they said, has privately denounced Iran hawks, some of whom are among his closest allies in the Republican Party, for questioning the strength of the agreement. Within the administration, there is a divide on the deal, but Trump sided with those advocating for the war to wind down, no matter the terms, as fears mount about the economic toll on Americans and the political costs for Republicans in the midterms.

Trump’s own anger masks a desperate desire to find an off-ramp from a conflict that did not go the way he had planned, an outcome that has threatened to leave the United States—and Trump—reduced in the eyes of the world. For a decade, Trump has dominated the global stage and wielded extraordinary executive power. But now he is saddled with low poll numbers and unhappy Republicans, and he may soon have to contend with a Democratic Congress.

His evolution into a lame duck is accelerating, and the political world is poised to soon look beyond him and focus on the 2028 contenders hoping to succeed him. World leaders, who were once cowed, have begun to defy him. Trump’s defeat in Iran, and the way he lost, may hasten his irrelevance.

It’s not usually a vote of confidence for your deal when you won’t let anyone else read it. But Trump and his team have threatened to not release the Iran agreement until after it is signed in Geneva on Friday. Officials have said that the deal will extend the cease-fire over the next 60 days and that Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allowing the U.S. to drop its naval blockade and oil to flow from the region again. Although Iran has agreed to not collect fees on the strait for the next 60 days, it has (according to Iranian state media) left open the door to doing so afterward—and the deal delays addressing Iran’s uranium-enrichment program, despite Trump having cast it as his urgent motivation for war.

The deal has also alarmed the GOP’s Iran hawks. Mark Levin, the right-wing radio host who championed the case for war, posted on social media his disbelief that Trump had rebuked Netanyahu and that the agreement remained shrouded in secrecy: “I have asked for days, why can’t we, the people, see the damn MOU?’” Senator Lindsey Graham has also made his reservations known, although he has carefully avoided blaming Trump and tried to pin responsibility on Vance, who was the lead American negotiator in the early stages of the talks. Erick Erickson, a conservative commentator, went so far as to declare that “Trump has surrendered to Iran.” And Marc Thiessen, a former President George W. Bush aide with whom the White House consulted during the war, has been one of many conservative voices warning that Trump’s emerging framework looks a lot like the Obama deal.

That notion has infuriated the [Felon] president. A longtime Trump confidant told me that Trump “was incensed by the dissent”—particularly the Obama comparison—from once-loyal Republicans. Trump has reflexively tried to tear up anything associated with the former president.

In the first days, the strikes, which were pushed by Netanyahu, killed Iran’s supreme leader and inflicted extraordinary damage on its military and artillery. But Iran proved resilient, attacking its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, and plunging the world into an energy crisis. The price of gas skyrocketed globally, including in the United States. Trump’s poll numbers, already teetering, fell further, and he began looking for a way out. He tried to intimidate Iran into taking a deal, at one point vowing to destroy its “whole civilization,” but walked away from each threat, leaving him open to mockery from Tehran.

The hard-line regime in Tehran appears poised to sell oil again and receive up to $300 billion in funding from Gulf states that it could use to rebuild. Iran has tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz and demonstrated that it can close the waterway at will. Although Tehran has promised not to build a nuclear weapon, no enforcement mechanism has been established. And to the shock of some Iran hawks, Trump yesterday seemed to back off his previous pledge to seize the uranium, saying, “You could make the case, ‘Why are you even bothering?’ Because it’s not really valuable.”

Iran has seemingly come out of the conflict with an ability to check Israel’s freedom to strike Lebanon and potentially elsewhere; in recent days, Trump has blasted Netanyahu for endangering the cease-fire and demanded that he call off an attack on Beirut. Trump’s broadsides, including calling the prime minister “a very difficult guy,” threaten to widen a rift between the U.S. and its longtime ally in the Middle East. Despite Trump’s reprimands, Netanyahu has insisted that Israel will continue to authorize attacks that it deems necessary for self-defense.

The war has cost Trump. It has rattled the nation’s economy. The Pentagon estimated that it had spent roughly $29 billion on the conflict by mid-May, but independent experts believe that it has spent tens of billions more. The U.S. military’s munitions supply has been depleted, putting at risk its ability to defend its interests in Asia and Europe. The United States’ failure, despite its overwhelming military might, to bring Iran to its knees could encourage China, Russia, or North Korea to take aggressive action. In the eyes of many, Washington has hurt its moral standing around the globe; promises to help the Iranian people rise up went unfulfilled, and more than 170 people, mostly children, were killed by a U.S. strike on a girls’ school in the war’s first hours.

Back home, Trump is still the most powerful figure in politics. But those small acts of Republican defiance are adding up. He has had a series of losses in the courts, including in his efforts to remake the nation’s capital in his own image. Democrats are favored to capture at least one house of Congress this November, which would give them the ability to slow Trump’s agenda and open investigations into his administration. Once the midterms conclude, the race to replace Trump will begin. Although that will further diminish Trump, it is unlikely that he will go out with a whimper.

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