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The Economy’s Warning Light Is Flashing Yellow

MAGA voters and others who voted for the Felon have claimed they voted for the Felon due to concerns about the economy - rather than admit it was the normalization of racism and/or promises that right wing "Christians" would be able to trample on the rights of others that truly attracted them - should be waking up to the reality that the Felon has taken a relative good economy and is running it into a ditch.  Between the Felon's insane tariffs which have increased prices and caused businesses to cut spend due to the new economic uncertainty , cuts to the federal work force and slashing spending put in place by the Biden administration, almost all of the economic indicators are headed in the wrong direction. Now, the Felon's war of choice against Iran is poised to potentially trigger an oil crisis akin to what hit the nation in 1973.  While the Felon continues to claim that the issue of affordability is a "hoax" and that with a war underway "some people die," anyone truly concerned about the economy and the economic struggles of average Americans ought to realize that the Felon has been a disaster for the economy save perhaps those running private concentration camps and manufacturing munitions.  A piece at The Atlantic looks at the darkening economic cloud:

The job market is weakening, inflation is still too high, and we’re at serious risk of a once-in-50-years oil shock. This is almost the exact set of conditions that triggered the stagflation of the 1970s, which at the time was America’s worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. At the moment, the economy is still far from that kind of doomsday scenario, but the direction of travel is disquieting. The economy’s warning lights might not yet be flashing red, but they are certainly flashing yellow.

The jobs report released this morning showed that the U.S. labor market lost 92,000 jobs in February, causing the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4 percent. The numbers for the previous two months, which had suggested decent job growth, were also revised downward: January now showed fewer job gains than initially estimated and December showed overall job losses. These new numbers continue the trend of last month’s revisions, which showed that the economy had added just 181,000 jobs in all of 2025, a tenth of the jobs that had been added the year prior. Taken together, the numbers suggest that 2025 appears to have had the most months with negative job growth since 2010—the midst of the Great Recession—and that 2026 is off to a similarly slow start. . . . . the native-born unemployment rate has risen by half a percentage point since Trump took office.

The labor market is not the only sign of trouble. A report released by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 20 showed that economic growth slowed dramatically in the final months of last year, from 4.4 percent in the third quarter down to just 1.4 percent, bringing total yearly growth to its lowest level since the pandemic decimated the economy in 2020.

The worst job numbers since the Great Recession, the slowest economic growth since COVID, and the worst inflation in nearly two years—these are not the signs of a healthy economy. And we haven’t even talked about oil yet.

As I wrote this morning, the U.S.-Iran war carries a very high risk of triggering an energy crisis if it lasts for more than a few weeks—the kind of crisis that experts believe could cause the price of oil to double or triple from its current level. That risk jumped almost immediately after my article was published, when Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the war would not end without Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” The price of crude oil promptly shot up to about $90 a barrel and may go higher still. Meanwhile, Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, has begun warning that oil prices could rise as high as $150 a barrel within weeks and that the situation could “could bring down the economies of the world.” As recently as yesterday, the oil markets were responding relatively calmly to the outbreak of war. Now panic might be setting in.

All of this looks eerily similar to the 1970s. At the beginning of the decade, the economy was already struggling. . . . . Then came the 1973 Arab oil embargo, and everything fell apart. Oil prices nearly quadrupled from late 1973 to early 1974. Because so much of the economy is dependent on energy, that caused the price of everything else to go up too. Inflation reached double digits. Meanwhile, consumers pulled back from spending, which, in turn, forced businesses to start laying off workers, setting off a vicious cycle. Economic growth plummeted, unemployment spiked, and the economy fell into recession.

The current situation is not yet 1973 all over again, and it doesn’t have to be. The biggest difference between the situation then and the one we face now is that this time the pain is mostly self-inflicted. When Trump came into office, inflation was falling, job creation was strong, and the economy was projected to grow quickly. Only after the imposition of his global tariffs did things take a turn for the worse, and only after his decision to wage war on Iran did the world face the prospect of a full-blown energy crisis.

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What Does Russia Have on Trump?

As the Iran war continues - a war of choice on the part of the Felon - oil prices soar, American citizens remain firmly against the war, and fears of a wider conflict grow, there are now reports that Russia is providing intelligence to Iran to aid in targeting American bases, facilities and war ships. What does the Felon do? He eases sanctions against Russia to allow increased Russian oil exports which, of course will aid Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine.  The AP reports as follows:

Russia has provided Iran with information that could help Tehran strike American warships, aircraft and other assets in the region, according to two officials familiar with U.S. intelligence on the matter.

The officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly on the sensitive matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity, cautioned that the U.S. intelligence has not uncovered that Russia is directing Iran on what to do with the information as the U.S. and Israel continue their bombardment and Iran fires retaliatory salvos at American assets and allies in the Persian Gulf.

[The Felon] Trump on Friday evening berated a reporter for raising the matter when he opened the floor to questions from the media at the end of a White House meeting . . . . White House officials downplayed the reports, but did not deny that Russia was sharing intelligence with Iran about U.S. targets in the region.

Like many, I have long suspected that Russia - and likely Israel as well - has blackmail information on the Felon.  This "kompromat" may have been gained by Russia itself when the Felon visited Russia in the past with salacious rumors about what Russia might have on video that the Felon does not want released.  The other possibility, of course is that Russia and Israel either received from Jeffrey Epstein or hacked damaging information, photos and or video with which they can now use to blackmail the Felon.  Much of what the Felon's regime has done has weakened - perhaps deliberately - America's standing in the world both through illegal tariffs and the alienation of allies of many decades.  Overall, the tariffs have trigger and decline in manufacturing jobs, job creation has been flat for the last six months, and now oil and gas prices are soaring and consumer prices continue to rise. None of this has "made America great again."  In a piece at Substack, Adam Kinzinger asks again the question of what Russia has on the Felon:

For years I’ve tried to avoid the easy question that floats around American politics. It’s the one people ask quietly in private conversations and loudly on cable news panels: what exactly does Russia have on Donald Trump? I’ve generally resisted going there because speculation is cheap and politics already has enough of it. Accusations without proof often become just another partisan talking point. But there comes a moment when a pattern becomes so obvious that refusing to even ask the question starts to feel dishonest. Today feels like one of those moments.

According to reporting from U.S. officials, Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence about the location of American military assets in the Middle East. That reportedly includes the positions of American ships and aircraft operating in the region. If that reporting is accurate, it means a hostile nuclear power is helping another hostile regime track American forces in the middle of an already volatile conflict. That is not some abstract geopolitical game. Those positions represent real Americans wearing the uniform. They represent the sons and daughters of families across the country who volunteered to serve and who depend on their government to protect them as they do their jobs.

What makes this moment even harder to understand is what happened at the same time. The same day these reports surfaced, the administration moved to ease restrictions that had been limiting Russian oil sales on global markets. The explanation was that it would stabilize energy supplies and help calm international markets. Maybe that calculation has an economic logic behind it, but it sends a strategic signal that is impossible to ignore. Russia is reportedly assisting a regime that has spent decades arming proxies against American troops, and the United States responds by making it easier for Russia to earn billions in oil revenue.

That contradiction is staggering. In any normal national security environment, a report that Russia was helping Iran identify American military targets would trigger a fierce bipartisan response. Congress would demand answers. Sanctions would tighten, not loosen. Intelligence agencies would be pushed to confirm what is happening and policymakers would act accordingly. Instead, the message Moscow hears is something entirely different. Russia can escalate its hostility toward the United States and still receive economic relief from Washington.

It forces a question that many Americans have been asking for years, sometimes out of frustration and sometimes out of genuine confusion. Why does Donald Trump consistently treat Vladimir Putin with a level of deference that he rarely shows to democratic allies? Over the past decade we have watched Russia interfere in American elections, wage cyber warfare against Western institutions, and invade Ukraine in a brutal war aimed at wiping a democratic country off the map. Each of those actions alone should have triggered sustained pressure from the United States. Instead, we repeatedly see hesitation and accommodation.

Now we may be looking at something even more alarming. If Russia is helping Iran track American military assets, that means Moscow is actively assisting a regime that has American blood on its hands. Iranian-backed militias have been responsible for the deaths of U.S. service members throughout the Middle East for years. When I flew missions in Iraq, everyone in uniform understood that Iranian support to militias was one of the reasons American troops faced constant danger. The idea that Russia would now help Iran in ways that could endanger American forces again should be a red line for any administration.

At the very same moment this is happening, Ukraine is offering something remarkable. After years of defending itself against Iranian-made Shahed drones used by Russia to terrorize Ukrainian cities, Ukraine has developed some of the most effective counter-drone tactics in the world. Ukrainian officials have offered to share those capabilities with the United States and our allies so we can better defend against the same technology. Think about the contrast in that moment. Ukraine, a country fighting for its survival against Russian aggression, is offering help to protect American forces. Russia, the aggressor in that war, is reportedly helping Iran gather intelligence that could put those same forces at risk.

Yet the policy signal coming out of Washington appears to reward Russia economically rather than punish it strategically. That leaves Americans wondering whether our leadership understands the basic alignment of friends and adversaries anymore. For decades the United States built alliances that made the democratic world stronger. We worked with partners who shared our interests and pushed back against regimes that threatened global stability. The current approach often seems to blur that line.

This is why the uncomfortable question keeps resurfacing. What does Russia have on Donald Trump? It is not a question people ask lightly, and it is not one that should be thrown around casually. But when the United States repeatedly responds to Russian aggression with restraint or accommodation, it becomes harder to ignore the pattern.

There is also a deeper issue at stake. The world watches how the United States responds to challenges. When adversaries see hesitation in the face of direct hostility, they interpret it as weakness. When allies see Washington reward the very powers that threaten them, they begin to question whether American leadership is still reliable. Strategic credibility is not something you can rebuild overnight once it erodes.

At some point the United States has to draw a line and make it clear that helping our enemies target American forces is unacceptable. Russia cannot simultaneously act against U.S. interests and expect economic concessions from the same government it is undermining. If these reports about Russian assistance to Iran are true, the response should be immediate and decisive. American troops deserve nothing less.

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Is The Felon's Fantasy About to Come Crashing Down?

It's another day and America is still at war against Iran. Oil and gas prices are up, thousands of travelers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf region,  and the Felon still appears to have no plan for and end goal or exit strategy.  Besides having no consistent explanation for why the Felon launched the war of choice, there is likewise no consistent answer as to what would make the reckless war a "success."  The Felon, America's would be monarch, seemingly believes that if he orders something or wants something to be true, all other actors should obey his orders and whims. Objective reality is meaningless in the Felon's fantasy world.  But in wars, things often do not go as planned and other actors, including enemies, have their own agendas and will simply not bow to the Felon.   If this war drags on - the Felon said it could go on "forever" - the economic consequences will be felt around the world, including by American consumers, some of whom claim to have voted for the Felon due to his lies about lowering prices.  Like WWI, the disaster in Afghanistan and Iraq, what are envisioned as short wars can turn into protracted conflicts with no go means of exiting.  A piece in the New York Times at how the Felon's Iran fantasy could come crashing down:

In Donald Trump’s fantasy world, America is invincible and impregnable.  Its military is so advanced and skillful that it can pluck a sitting head of state from a hostile country and deposit him in a New York City jail cell without losing a single soldier. It can slap punitive tariffs on any nation it likes, abandon longstanding alliances on a whim, bomb any country at any time and freely blow up boats it may suspect of carrying drugs. America’s awesome power means it is unfettered by any rules, untroubled by any consequences. As an unfathomably rich and sprawling nation, blessed by geography and protected from its enemies by two vast oceans, why shouldn’t it do what it will?

Over the past six days, as Trump plunged the United States into a war with Iran, that fantasy of omnipotence has come crashing into reality. Undertaken for unexplained and perhaps unexplainable reasons, the war is being waged in a central node of the global economy against a disciplined, well-armed opponent with nothing to lose.

America and Israel killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a dozen Iranian leaders on the first day of fighting, but Trump has clearly given little thought to what comes next. Recklessly, he has ignited a widening conflagration with no obvious end in sight. The death toll has already surpassed 1,000 people.

For America, the repercussions are just beginning. At least six American service members have been killed, and the Pentagon, pointedly not ruling out boots on the ground, has said more casualties are likely. Despite relentless attacks on Iran’s military installations, the country has responded with relentless force.

It has rained missiles and drones not only on American and Israeli targets but also on the Gulf countries — the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia chief among them — that play host to American military bases. Airports, hotels, data centers and energy infrastructure have been struck, causing chaos. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial choke point for the export of oil and gas, is all but closed, sending shudders through energy markets.

This is the world Trump tries to disavow — complex and interconnected, resiliently interwoven and yet vulnerable to disruption. The Gulf embodies it like no other place. An apotheosis of globalization, it is a crossroads of money, people and power deeply intertwined with not just America’s fortunes but also Trump’s personal wealth. More than anything, it shows up — in its grounded flights, shuttered refineries and intercepted missiles — the fallacy of Fortress America.

Trump neither sought nor received congressional approval, much less international support, for his war. But perhaps the most shocking thing about his cavalier approach is that he seems to have had no idea the Gulf would be a target. In an interview with CNN on Monday, he professed that Iran’s attacks on American allies in the Gulf were “probably the biggest surprise” — despite the fact that just about every country in the region had warned his administration that Iran would surely attack them in retaliation for an American assault.

This thoughtlessness is part of a pattern. For one thing, the Trump administration has given no plausible explanation for the war, offering instead confused and contradictory justifications. Secretary of State Marco Rubio even suggested that America was effectively bounced into it by the prospect of an imminent Israeli attack on Iran.

For another, Trump appears strangely uncertain about where the war is heading. “The worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person,” Trump mused on Tuesday, seated in his gilded Oval Office . . .

It is unsettling how often Trump affects astonishing indifference, as though the most powerful man in the world were merely a spectator to events he himself has set in motion — and who in any case has little investment in the outcome. But that curious passivity reveals a darker truth. Trump seems to believe that he, like his fantasy America, exists on a different plane, utterly untouchable by the swirl of global events. The devastating consequences of his actions are not just someone else’s fault. They are someone else’s problem, too.

That illusion cannot survive contact with material reality. The postwar consensus was built partly on a set of noble ideas about human rights and international law, but in truth its backstop was economic interdependence. And not since World War II has there been a conflict that unfolded in a crucial global financial center. America’s major wars since then took place in nations that were on the economic periphery: Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq.

There is the oil and gas, of course. The Gulf is home to about half of the world’s proven reserves of oil. Those are now imperiled: Scarcely any ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil producers are running out of storage space. What’s more, one-fifth of the world’s liquid natural gas comes through the strait, primarily from Qatar. On Wednesday, the country shut down its liquefaction facilities and declared a force majeure, with potentially dire implications for importers in Europe and East Asia.

Yet alongside this resource wealth, Gulf nations have rapidly diversified in recent decades, transforming the region into a center of finance, aviation, technology and tourism, as well as a home to tens of millions of people from across the globe. . . . . . The closure of their airports has not only stranded hundreds of thousands of travelers, including many Americans, but also severed vital links between vast regions of the world.

Indeed, there are few people who would have better reason to appreciate the Gulf’s centrality than Trump. After all, his family’s company has struck billions of dollars of real estate deals in the region. His son-in-law Jared Kushner got $2 billion in 2022 from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund for his private equity company. An investment firm tied to the U.A.E. purchased nearly half of the Trump family’s cryptocurrency company for $500 million just days before Trump’s inauguration last year. A few months later, Qatar gave Trump the lavish gift of a gilded Boeing 747.

That is all in peril now, as the war spreads ominously. On Tuesday, America torpedoed an Iranian warship with a crew of an estimated 180 people on board off the coast of Sri Lanka, more than 2,000 miles from Tehran. On Wednesday, NATO forces shot down a missile headed into Turkey’s airspace, prompting anxieties about NATO needing to trigger Article 5. On Thursday, Azerbaijan said multiple drones crossed its borders, injuring at least two people. Who knows what will be next.

And yet Trump presses on, declaring at one point that the war could go on “forever.” In a manic briefing on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised “death and destruction from the sky all day long” over Tehran, a densely populated city of about 10 million people.

If war is God’s way of teaching Americans geography, perhaps it will also serve as a lesson to Trump. It should be a simple one: Other places and other people are real, possessing their own agendas and agency — and America’s actions have consequences it cannot control. Anything else is pure fantasy.

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