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Trump Can’t Spin His Way Out of This War

It's another day and the Felon's war of choice against Iran continues, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to all but Iranian vessels, the Felon's calls to former European allies and even China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz have been met with shrugs or flat out "no" responses, and the Felon continues to flail and try to spin away the growing realization that the war was launched without any overall strategy or plan.  The Wall Street Journal's reports on the Felon's conscious ignoring of warnings about the lack of a plan to counter Iranian efforts to close the Strait has earned it threats from the Felon (network news channels that have reported on the Felon's failures have been likewise threatened) even  as the American public still has never been given a consistent explanation for the war.  Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is sinking, Mexico and Canada are forging ahead with economic plans that are less reliant on America - Canada is embracing electric cars from China - and it has become clear that the Felon's constant treats, insults and condescension towards European nations and others is leaving the USA isolated and deemed unreliable if not a threat by former reliable allies. None of this is "making America great again" and one can only assume that the Felon's likely overlords at the Kremlin are smiling. An editorial in the New York Times looks at the Felon's attempts to spin himself out of a likely debacle. Here are highlights:

[The Felon] President Trump went to war against Iran without explaining his strategy to the American people or the world. It now appears that he may not have had much of a strategy at all.

Almost three weeks into the war, Mr. Trump has no apparent plan for bringing about the demise of the Iranian regime, something he had said he seeks. If his goal is more modest, such as the seizure of Iran’s nuclear materials, he has not offered credible ideas for accomplishing it. And he has failed to plan for a predictable side effect of a war in the Middle East: a disruption of oil supplies that causes a price spike and impairs the global economy.

The war has become an exemplar of Mr. Trump’s chaotic, ego-driven approach to the presidency. He has relied for advice on a smaller circle of aides than past presidents did when ordering military action and eschewed the careful process intended to surface objections and potential problems. He has made ridiculous and contradictory public statements, including a claim that the war has nearly achieved its goals. He has tried to mislead the world about the tragic deaths of dozens of Iranian schoolchildren, which were caused by a mistargeted American missile. Almost daily, he demonstrates why he cannot be trusted with the most consequential matters of government.

Despite all this, the war has had some tactical successes, and we believe it is important to acknowledge them even if they remain untethered to a strategy. . . . . Over the past few years, a combination of economic sanctions imposed by the United States and allies and military attacks, mostly by Israel, has left Iran less capable of sowing regional problems. The value of its currency has plunged. Many of Iran’s leaders and nuclear scientists are dead. Its aerial defenses are mostly destroyed, and its missile stockpile is depleted. Two of its terrorist proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, are degraded. Its client state in Syria has been overthrown by local rebels.

But in launching this war two and a half weeks ago, Mr. Trump asserted larger aims than containing Iran. “To the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” Mr. Trump said shortly after the first strikes. He has called for the unconditional surrender of Iran’s government and said that he must approve the country’s next leader. He has promised to make Iran great again.

Mr. Trump has not even begun to explain how he will accomplish any of these goals. . . . . Increasingly, the truth appears to be that the president of the United States has started a war without any idea of how to end it.

Three strategic problems have become clear since the war began.

First, [the Felon] Mr. Trump repeated a mistake that American presidents have made for decades — in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and even Iran itself, in the 1950s — and imagined that regime change would be easier to accomplish and maintain than it was. In this instance, Mr. Trump’s hubris has been stunning. Air power alone almost never topples a government. Only troops on the ground can seize the instruments of state power and install a new leader.

In defiance of this history, Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel have conjured dreams of regime change. . . . . There is no evidence that any of this is working. After Mr. Trump encouraged street protests in January, Iran’s regime massacred thousands of demonstrators and remained securely in charge of the country. Since then, protests have largely ended.

Second, it remains unclear how the United States will achieve a crucial goal: assuring that Iran’s murderous regime does not become a nuclear power. Its stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to be intact, in a tunnel complex under mountains near the city of Isfahan. If the war ends with Iran maintaining that stockpile, it will have a path to building a bomb. The military humiliations it has endured over the past few years give it an incentive to take the final steps toward a weapon that it has not previously taken.

When this war began, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that ground troops might be the only way to capture the uranium. . . . But the scattered approach to war planning does not inspire confidence.

The third problem involves the global economy. Middle Eastern wars are notorious for causing economic turmoil by raising the price of oil. Iran had a clear way to repeat the pattern by throttling the traffic of ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Yet Mr. Trump tried to wish away this situation.

Before the war, his top military adviser, Gen. Dan Caine, warned him that Iran would likely respond by attacking ships in the strait and effectively closing it. Mr. Trump replied by suggesting that Iran’s government would capitulate before it could close the strait or that the U.S. military could keep the strait open, according to The Wall Street Journal. He was wrong, as should have been obvious. The price of oil has since jumped more than 40 percent.

His responses have had an air of desperation. He temporarily lifted oil sanctions on Russia, which is a gift to an enemy. Over the weekend, he resorted to pleading with Britain, France, Japan, South Korea — allies he has spent years disdaining — and even China to send naval forces to protect the strait.

War is uncertain, and it remains possible that any of these problems will begin to look less serious in the coming weeks. . . . . The first weeks of this war do not inspire confidence, however. They instead suggest that the behind-the-scenes planning in the White House may have been as reckless as its public behavior. It did not seek congressional approval for the war, as the Constitution requires. It did not plan ahead with allies in Europe or East Asia. It offered the American people only superficial rationales for the war.

Throughout his business and political career, Mr. Trump has often sought to create his own reality. When the truth is inconvenient, he ignores it and tells self-serving falsehoods. It has often worked out for him. But war tends to be less amenable to spin than politics or marketing. The early reality of the Iran war is not cooperating with Mr. Trump’s bluster.

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Trump’s Self-Created Strait of Hormuz Problem

As it becomes increasingly obvious to all but perhaps the most hard core MAGA cultists, the Felon launched his war against Iran with no real extended plan, particularly when it comes to the ability of Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz and send oil prices soaring. As the New York Times is reporting, after insulting European allies, enacting tariffs against them, and displaying a hubris filled attitude of "we don't need you", the Felon is now threatening that failing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz (and save the Felon's ass) would be “very bad for the future of NATO.” So far most of these nations the Felon has threatened are declining to send their naval assets to help the Felon out in a mess of his own creation and seemingly are happy to see the Felon twist on the rope he placed around his own neck.  The lack of any pre-thought out plan for the Strait of Hormuz underscores the incompetence of the Felon and his regime that threw America into a war with little thought and certainly no exit plan.  A piece at Salon looks at the Felon's incompetence and the stranglehold he has given Iran on oil supplies - all of which should have been foreseen by a competent administration. Here are excerpts:

Donald Trump [The Felon] has made many audacious claims during his political career, and he has shown a remarkable talent for convincing people that up is down and black is white. But his latest attempt at gaslighting the nation is his most brazen yet. In the midst of a hike in gas prices the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades, Trump took to Truth Social to lecture and scold the American people. “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!” 

He later went a step further in an attempt to convince people that paying more at the pump is actually benefiting them: “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” 

Watching Trump squirm over oil prices would be amusing if it weren’t a result of a widening war of choice that’s leaving a growing number of Americans and Iranians dead and may well devolve further into a catastrophic regional conflict and international economic disaster. 

After two weeks of airstrikes from the U.S. and Israel, and retaliations from Iran, the American people still don’t know exactly why Trump decided to pull the trigger when he did. One would have thought that if Trump understood anything, it would be that going to war with Iran would disrupt the oil markets at a time when inflation was still American voters’ number one concern leading up to the November midterms. For months he has falsely touted low gas prices as proof that the economy is roaring, and since January he has pointed to his incursion in Venezuela — and seizure of the country’s oil — as the reason why. 

Trump certainly didn’t listen to any of his military advisers who told him that war with Iran would not be a cakewalk. And none of Trump’s briefers drew him any pictures about what would happen if the regime blocked access to the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point at the end of the Persian Gulf through which 30% of the world’s oil flows. Since the war began on Feb. 28, over 1,000 cargo ships, the majority of which are oil and gas tankers, have not been allowed to pass through the strait. 

By Friday night, with frustration mounting, Trump announced the U.S. had bombed military sites on Kharg Island, which is also home to Iran’s most important oil terminal. While its oil infrastructure was left intact, he threatened to destroy the facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. . . . The [Felon] president urged Britain, China, France, Japan and South Korea to help reopen the waterway, promising that “One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!”

Anyone with even rudimentary knowledge of recent history would have known this was likely. Yet CNN reported on Thursday that Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers in recent briefings that they did not consider the possibility, a revelation that has left experts and experienced hands with their jaws on the floor. “Dumbfounded” is how one former official who served in both Republican and Democratic administrations described their response, explaining that “planning around preventing this exact scenario — impossible as it has long seemed — has been a bedrock principle of U.S. national security policy for decades.” The administration was so unprepared for Iran’s predictable response that it pulled U.S. minesweepers out of the Persian Gulf last fall after stationing them there for decades, all for the express purpose of countering a potential closure by Iran. 

Since the oil shocks of the early 1970s, people who follow world events have been aware of the perils of getting into a protracted war with a large oil-producing country in the Middle East. . . . . The prospect of a war with Iran always invited the possibility that the world’s oil markets would be severely disrupted, which is one reason why political leaders of all stripes and in all countries have been leery of confronting the regime militarily. 

Today we’re seeing the result of the aging Trump’s lack of inhibition and unwillingness to listen to anyone but sycophants who tell him what he wants to hear. The strait is effectively closed, just as every analyst on the planet predicted. Oil prices are hovering at just under $100 a barrel, and experts predict that could double as the war drags on. Gas is now, on average, 60 cents per gallon higher than it was in February, and prices are still climbing. As energy costs are the number one driver of inflation, we can expect that rate to rise. And all of this comes on top of an economy already reeling from Trump’s tariffs, which were beginning to bite hard. 

Meanwhile, Trump has no idea what to do. The plan to underwrite the insurance for tankers to go through the strait shows a total lack of understanding of how insurance works, and any process for U.S. naval escorts is on hold because it’s too dangerous for all involved. On Monday the president told Fox News that oil tanker crews should “show some guts” and just go through the strait, which is easy for him to say. Now he has given a gift to Vladimir Putin by lifting oil sanctions on Russia, even as CNN reported that the country is aiding Iran by providing “specific advice on drone attacks.”

America’s sensitivity to oil prices is well known and well documented. There is no excuse for anyone in government to not understand this and consider the risks. It’s always possible that this will be a temporary economic blip — that the Iranians will give up the closure due to, if nothing else, the environmental horror show being visited on them by the Israelis. In the meantime, here we are, once again holding out hope that Trump — and America — will have the good luck to survive his monumentally terrible judgment.

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The Economic Numbers Are Brutal for Trump

Remember all the post 2024 election interviews where individuals said they voted for the Felon because of his promises to reduce inflation and to bring down consumer prices?  More a year into the Felon's second regime both promises have not been kept and, in fact, inflation has increased, prices have continued to increase, and job creation is in the negative range.  Usher in the Felon's war of choice against Iran and the inflationary forces are greatly increased with some saying that gas prices will likely come to exceed $4.00 per gallon. Where are the screams of pickup driving, Felon voting bubbas that we heard against Joe Biden?  One has to wonder how much more it will take before some of the MAGA base realized that they were conned by the Felon, the equivalent of a carnival barker whose policies have only increased his own wealth and been a boon to the billionaire class and, of course, the so-called "Epstein class."  And did I mention that Iran reports that Russia and China are giving Iran aid in the  war with the USA even as the Felon reduced sanctions on Russian oil? A piece at The New Republic looks at the reality of the tanking U.S. economy which is far different than the lies and talking points of the Felon and his sycophants in Congress.  Here are article highlights:

The likelihood is growing that the economy will be in recession when voters cast their ballots in the midterm elections. Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised its 12-month estimation of a recession’s probability from 20 percent to 25 percent, and on Friday morning Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, put the likelihood at 34 percent within the next nine and a half months. Even if we don’t see an outright recession, Trump’s economic policies are plainly failing.

The most immediate economic problem is the Iran war, which on Friday morning had oil trading at about $100 per barrel, even after the Treasury Department rather pathetically lifted sanctions on Russian oil for tankers already at sea. In effect, war with Iran is compelling Trump to partially surrender to Russia in the Ukraine war—even as Russia helps Iran target U.S. forces in the Middle East—and it isn’t even working. Oil prices are still going through the roof. The Democrats’ attack ad writes itself.

Economic indicators were starting to go south even before the war started on February 28. According to a revised Commerce Department estimate released Friday morning, gross domestic product growth slowed to 0.7 percent from October through December 2025, down from 4.4 percent from July through September. Previously the Commerce Department knew GDP growth had dropped (the first estimate was 1.4 percent), but the growth figure turned out to be half what Commerce initially thought. A big part of the problem was reduced government spending at the state and local level. Yes, Virginia, government spending increases GDP, and one out of every three dollars in state spending lately has originated from the feds, who cut Medicaid and food stamps in Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill and impounded or otherwise clawed back assorted state grants. The government shutdown last fall further reduced federal aid to states during the fourth quarter.

Another major reason for weak economic growth was that imports grew from October through December, reaching a record high even as Trump slapped tariffs hither and yon. Judged as a revenue-raiser, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were a great success, raising an estimated $160 billion. But judged as trade policy, the tariffs were a dismal failure, because tariffs are supposed to make people Buy American, not pay more to keep buying foreign products. That just fuels inflation, and according to the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index, core inflation (i.e., minus volatile food and energy prices) was 3 percent in January. That’s significantly higher than when Trump took office one year before, after getting elected promising to reduce inflation. Rising oil prices will now send non-core inflation higher.

The trade deficit, we learned this week, narrowed in January, from $73 billion to $55 billion. (This was before the Supreme Court killed the Liberation Day tariffs.) Good news, right? Not really. The main reason was a stampede by overseas buyers to purchase American gold. That was a vote of no confidence in American dollars and American Treasury bills. Out of a $15 billion increase in exports, $4.7 billion was gold, and when you add in other precious metals, such foreign stockpiling accounts for more than half the increase. The dollar’s value fell more than 9 percent in 2025, its biggest annual drop since 2017.

Did I mention that job creation was also down before the war started? . . . . the latest jobs report showed that 92,000 jobs were lost in February, which is not good, though we’ll need one or two more monthly reports to identify this as a trend.

Uncertainty about whether Trump seeks a regime change in Iran makes all of this worse. On some days he wants one, and on other days he doesn’t. But even (especially?) if the war ends next week, the instability it created will continue to disrupt an economy that was already headed for trouble before it began. If I didn’t know any better, I’d guess Trump was deliberately trying to throw the midterm elections to the Democrats. That’s not his intention, of course. He’s just really bad at this.

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