Likely Tropical Storm Joaquin to threaten Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast

So far this year the Atlantic tropical storm season has been minimal with storms remaining out to sea and posing no serious threat to the east coast.  This all may change this weekend as a tropical depression likely to become Tropical Storm Joaquin heads northward from the Bahamas region.  True to form, the various models that predict where the storm will go are all over the place.  The Hampton Roads region has not had a serious brush with tropical weather since Hurricane Sandy three years ago which just brushed by on its way to slam New Jersey and New York.  Historically, it has been the "I" named storms - Isabel, Ida and Irene - that have flooded our home. Since then, we have installed a whole house generator and three large pumps in the house.  Most of Hampton Roads still has no real plan to deal with climate change/rising sea levels.  Here are highlights from the Washington Post on what may be ahead:

A tropical depression that formed northeast of the Bahamas has a chance to significantly impact the East Coast later this week.

Depending on its exact track, which is highly uncertain, heavy rain could impact coastal areas anywhere from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England and even expand inland west of the I-95 corridor. In addition to the rain, coastal areas could also face gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion and flooding — depending on how the system evolves.

Conditions could become more favorable for intensification in 24-48 hours when the depression could attain tropical storm status, earning the name Joaquin.

Model track forecasts for this system are widely divergent – ranging from landfall along the North Carolina coast to Long Island. “[C]onfidence in the track forecast is rather low,” the National Hurricane Center stresses.

The European model presents an ominous scenario in which a tropical storm makes landfall near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay Saturday night spreading gusty winds and heavy rain across the Mid-Atlantic. Such a scenario could result in storm surge flooding for the Virginia, Maryland and Delaware beaches and up the Chesapeake Bay.

The latest GFS model, however, targets the region from central New Jersey to New York City (and points north) with a direct hit Friday night. Under this scenario, the Mid-Atlantic is more or less missed with perhaps just a brief period of rain.

Not only is the track uncertain, but so too is the type of weather system that will affect the coast, whether it’s a tropical depression, a tropical storm, hurricane (as predicted by some high resolution models), or a post (non-) tropical storm.

 The joys of coastal living!

McAuliffe: Virginia Not Prepared for a Hampton Roads Evacuation

On June 1st we again enter into hurricane season.  Like so much else that relates to environmental issues, Virginia is not ready for an evacuation of Hampton Roads should a major storm hit the area.  Thankfully, Governor McAullife is recognizing this reality.  As any afternoon commuter trying to traverse the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel (where morons behind the wheel slow down to 20 mph rather than maintain the posted speed) or seeking to traverse the bottleneck in northern Newport News where Interstate 64 drops to four lanes from eight lanes can attest there is simply no way in Hell a major evacuation could be accommodated.  Making maters worse is the Virginia GOP's refusal to even admit that climate change is occurring and that higher levels of preparedness are needed.  A piece in the Daily Press looks at McAuliffe's common sense recognition of the problem and the potential for catastrophe.  Here are excerpts:

Gov. Terry McAuliffe has asked two cabinet secretaries to head a new look at emergency evacuation plans for Hampton Roads after an exercise two weeks ago showed that "we could not evacuate if we had a major catastrophe," he said.

The difficulty of a hurricane or other emergency evacuation in the area is well known, given the constricting geography. The state's current hurricane plan — available online and dated May 2013 — says an evacuation would have to account for as many as 900,000 people in 400,000 cars in the area.  It would effect as many as 1.2 million people up and down the Virginia coast if a hurricane came during peak tourist season, the plan states.

But a "tabletop exercise" held earlier this month in Richmond, attended by McAuliffe and his cabinet, as well as emergency and law enforcement officials, made it "clear and evident we can't get folks out of the Hampton Roads region," McAuliffe said.

The state's hurricane plan lists nine evacuation routes for the area: I-64, I-264, I-664, Route 10, Route 13, Route 17, Route 58, Route 60 and U.S. 460.

There are plans to build a new U.S. 460, but McAuliffe suspended the project earlier this year after it became apparent the state had spent close to $300 million on the road with no guarantee that the proposed route would get a required permit from the Army Corps of Engineers.

McAuliffe and Layne have both said they support the concept behind the 460 project, which would provide a new evacuation route as well as a new truck route for port traffic. The road may take another route than the southern path already planned, though, and that would rachet up the costs if previous design and testing work is thrown away.

McAuliffe reiterated his general support for the project's concept Thursday, and for other area road improvements. The Virginia Department of Transportation already plans to widen parts of I-64.  "Clearly ... we need some capacity to get folks out," McAuliffe said.

Even though our home has flooded in past storms, the reality is that in any storm pushing less than a 12 foot storm surge, we'd be safer remaining in our home (we park the cars on the 2nd floors of downtown parking garages) and relying on the whole house generator and commercial sump pumps to is contend with the water as opposed to going through a major storm stuck in gridlock on an impassable Interstate.   Many residents are in even lower lying areas than we are and are not as prepared as we are now after the 2009 Nor'Ida Storm that saw tide levels just 3.24 inches under the all-time record high level at the Norfolk Naval Base.

Our home during the 2009 Nor'Ida Storm

Cuccinelli Denies Climate Change Even Though Major Hurricane Would Destroy Hampton Roads

As noted in the prior post, Ken Cuccinelli spent last night with a group of perhaps the most vehement deniers of climate change in Virginia, if not America.  It is also safe to conjecture that also in attendance and kissing the ring of Victoria Cobb, the president of The Family Foundation were many Republican members of the Virginia General Assembly.   It has come to the point in Virginia where one cannot successfully run as a Republican unless they have sworn fealty to The Family Foundation and endorsed all of its anti-religious freedom and anti-science pronouncements.  It is a principal reason that no serious study has been authorized to deal with Virginia's threatened coast line which mentions "climate change" or "rising sea levels" even though both phenomenon are visibly happening.   What makes the situation so insane is that a direct hit from a major hurricane would all but wipe out Hampton Roads and leave its flagship hospitals flooded as the image above indicates.  Here are highlights from a Virginian Pilot article that looks at the seriousness of the threat:

[A] pair of researchers at Old Dominion University have painted a richly detailed depiction of how a major hurricane would hit vulnerable populations in Hampton Roads.

They call their fictional storm "Sandtrina." And it's not a pretty picture.

Joshua Behr and Rafael Diaz, professors at ODU's Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center, have created a computer model that takes Hurricane Sandy, the 2012 superstorm that hammered the Northeast, and turns its path straight toward Hampton Roads.

The effect, they conclude, would be similar to that of 2005's Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, a city that bears a close resemblance to Hampton Roads in terms of topography, demographics and economics.

The computer-generated image of the resulting 13-foot storm surge - the abnormal swelling of tidal waters produced by such a powerful storm - shows vast swaths of Hampton Roads underwater.

The bottom line, Behr said: "The worst-case scenario is going to catch us with our pants down." 

One phase of the research looked at how the region's health care infrastructure would be affected by a worst-case storm. The resulting map shows dozens of medical facilities - hospitals, clinics, doctors' offices and the like - underwater. 

The problem, Diaz said, is that "above a certain level of storm, say a Category 3, preparations like generators, food, fuel and batteries won't help you."

Behr underlines the point: "I don't care how many cans of green beans you have. If you have 11 feet of water in your neighborhood, green beans don't do you any good. If it passes a certain threshold, you need to get out of Dodge."

A recent study by CoreLogic, a property data provider, found that more than 300,000 properties in Hampton Roads valued at $73 billion would be exposed to storm-surge risk in a hurricane. That's the third-highest financial exposure in the United States, behind New York and Miami.

Do we really want a governor who doesn't even believe this growing threat exists?

Did People Fail to Take Hurricane Sandy Seriously Enough?

Watching television and viewing other media coverage of the devastation in New York and New Jersey I continue to be horrified.  And I am no stranger to the ravages that hurricanes can inflict.  I lived through the direct hit of Hurricane Frederic back in 1979 when I lived in Mobile and now three hurricane storm surges since 2009 in our home in Hampton (2009 caused major flooding to the house and the boyfriend and I lived in basically two rooms for the better part of the next six months as the entire first floor was ripped up and repaired in a manner that made it water resistant).  But I keep wondering why more people seem to have not evacuated both in New York and New Jersey.  With the hype of Sandy as the "Frankenstorm" and the dire predictions of the level of the storm surge, it is not as if there wasn't warning.  It is a question that needs to be asked and investigated because too many lives seem to have been lost needlessly.

The New York Times profiles some of the harsh aftermath of Sandy.  As for the speed of relief services arriving, I know that it can seem like an eternity before power is restored and debris is removed, etc.  And sadly, in New York and New Jersey the amount of debris is staggering.  And the numbers of people needing relief are staggering as well.  One can only hope that (1) future storms - of which scientists say will will like see more - will be taken far more seriously and (2) as rebuilding begins new construction standards and flooding criteria will be imposed. This is something that will not be popular with many - people in Alabama screamed when Gulf Shores and Dauphin Island had to be rebuilt to much more exacting standards - but simply ignoring the new climate and sea level reality will only court future disasters and the needless loss of lives.

One can only hope that on Tuesday we do not see climate change deniers elected to offices where acceptance of the new reality is impeded or totally rejected.  There will be more Hurricane Sandy's and all of us need to accept that and plan accordingly.  Hurricanes are no longer just a southern or southeastern danger to be dealt with.  We cannot undo what has happened, but we can be much more ready for the next monster storm.

Evacuation zones in red