Threat of Rising Sea Levels Could Be three Times Worse

Street scene as Hurricane Irma hits the Miami area Sept. 10, 2017.

Living in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia - like many areas on the East and Gulf coasts - where tidal water is everywhere, causes most residents (other than perhaps Trump supporters on slowly drowning Tangier Island) to grasp that climate change and the attendant sea level rise is a real threat to the region's way of live, not to mention property values.  Meanwhile, the Trump/Pence regime continues to roll back regulations aimed at slowing climate change - as well as clean air and clean water protections - to the cheers of much of the Republican Party.  As new studies reveal, while the GOP and its ignorance embracing party base deny that climate change is real, the problems facing mankind are likely far worse than previously estimated.  Here are highlights from a piece in the Washington Post:

Rising seas will be much worse and more expensive to deal with than previously thought, new research finds, not because of faster changes in sea levels but because of an increase in estimates of the number of people living on low ground.

The upshot of the study is that 110 million people worldwide live below the high-tide level — including many partly protected by sea walls or other infrastructure, as in New Orleans. Even under a scenario of very modest climate change, that number will rise to 150 million in 2050 and 190 million by 2100.

If climate change and sea level rise follow a worse path, as many as 340 million people living below the high-tide level could be in peril, to say nothing of how many could be affected by floods and extreme events.

Such figures are three times — or more — higher than earlier estimates.

The reason for the big change is that prior research has relied on data about coastal elevations that comes from radar measurements from the 2000 space shuttle Endeavor mission. But that data set has problems. The instrument detected the height not only of the coastal land surface but anything else that was on it, such as houses and trees. This introduced errors in land-elevation estimates averaging about 6½ feet globally, the new study says.

The new study uses the more accurate U.S. measurements as a guide, training an algorithm to apply similar adjustments to the global data set from the space shuttle. This is where the much higher numbers for exposed populations come from, with the biggest changes in exposure coming for countries in Asia. . . . “We are talking about hundreds of millions of people who will be directly exposed.”

The changes are certainly very large. The study estimates that 110 million people live below the current high-tide level vs. an estimated 28 million for the older data set. About 250 million people would fall below the level of the worst yearly flood, the study says, up from the previous estimate of 65 million.

If key instabilities kick in in Antarctica, 480 million people would be exposed to an annual flood in 2100.

The findings are worst for Asia, notably in China, Bangladesh and India. In the worst-case scenario, 87 million, 50 million and 38 million people in these countries, respectively, would fall below the high-tide level in 2100.

The situation is, if anything, more ominous than these figures suggest, according to the World Bank’s Hallegatte. That’s because in addition to high-tide and annual worst-case flood events, there are major floods from hurricanes and other storms and disasters to consider, even if they do not occur every year. The impact of these severe events will be worsened and affect larger populations as seas continue to rise.

“Most dikes and protection systems have been built for the sea level of 50 years ago or more, and will be increasingly ill-designed to protect people against floods, leading to rapidly increasing coastal flood losses in the absence of large upgrades,” Hallegatte said. “Upgrading those systems will be expensive but is unavoidable if one wants to avoid unacceptable economic losses in large cities.”

“This new study suggests that a lot of the assessments published on climate change risks are underestimated and would need to be revised,” Hallegatte said.

How does one act to make a difference?  The first step is voting a straight Democrat ticket here in Virginia on November 5, 2019.   Virginia can send a shock wave through the GOP - and perhaps be a precursor to 2020 - by putting Virginia Republicans in minority status across the board. 

NOAA: 45 Percent Chance of Above-Normal Hurricane Activity.

While the Trump/Pence regime continues to deny that climate change is real and that weather patterns are changing as a result, on Wednesday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ("NOAA") announced that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. More named storms and stronger storms are part of the prediction.  For those of us living on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, this is not welcomed news. Here in Hampton Roads where the population has surged, no major hurricane has hit in decades and evacuation routes - Interstate 64, Route 58, and Route 460 - are limited and traffic gridlock virtually guaranteed.  With large industrial sump pumps, waterproofing of the entire first floor, and a natural gas powered whole house generator, our home is more prepared than most, but one would truly rather not put such preparedness to a test. The Washington Post looks at NOAA's updated forecast:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Wednesday morning that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. It now estimates a 45 percent chance of an above-average season and a 20 percent chance of the season being below average — an impressive upward jump from its initial predictions in May.

“We are now entering the peak months of August through October,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster. “Historically, 95 percent of hurricanes, and most major hurricanes, occur during this time frame. That’s why we do an update to the outlook. An above-normal season has the highest chance of occurring.”

NOAA is now predicting between 10 and 17 named storms, five to nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. . . . . More important, the revised outlook is calling for two to four major hurricanes, referring to storms that achieve Category 3 status — or greater.

“In addition, the storms we end up getting could be longer-lived and stronger than we had forecast back in May,” said Bell, who referred to the early demise of an El Niño pattern that is typically hostile to hurricanes. “Winds now are forecast to be much more hospitable” to hurricanes.

Bell emphasized that it’s impossible to predict this far ahead whether these storms will hit land. “That comes down to local weather patterns at the time the storm’s approaching,” he said. That can’t be done before a storm has developed. “We just can’t make seasonal landfall predictions.”

The season may seem to be off to a slow start, but in reality that’s normal. Strong hurricanes rarely form before mid- to late August. . . . “But the pattern switches in August. We start getting storms from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. It’s a completely different formation mechanism.” And those are the storms that ride all the way across the Atlantic, gathering strength and, on occasion, metastasizing into monsters.

Bell emphasized the need for early preparedness, suggesting that residents along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard take advantage of the next few quiet weeks now before a storm develops.  “This applies to both coastal and inland residents,” he said. “It’s not only about the numbers. It only takes one storm.”

Bell says that we’ve been in the midst of a more active period of hurricane activity since 1995. . . . The past few years have experienced a spike in hurricane activity. Included was Hurricane Michael in October, the first Category 5 U.S. landfall since Andrew in 1992. Florence dropped nearly three feet of rain in North Carolina, coming on the heels of a 2017 season that featured Harvey, Irma and Maria. Bell warns this year could be another memorable one.

The image above is an unsettling model of a hurricane with a 13 foot storm surge.   People need to take the risk seriously.

Sea level Rise is Already Costing Coastal Property Owners

Coincidentally, as I happened upon this Washington Post article that focuses on Charleston, South Carolina, but which is all too applicable to coastal Virginia, we received the annual flood insurance premium invoice and it's almost as much as I paid for the first car I bought new after graduating from law school.  The premium is  up about 8% over last year's amount and like some of the property owners cited in the article, the value of our waterfront property has plateaued (but, thankfully has not fallen  since the 2008 housing market collapse) due to the increased concerns over rise sea levels and past flooding episodes.  Meanwhile, of course, Republicans at both the Virginia level and Congressional level are claiming that climate change is a hoax and sea levels are not rising.  And meanwhile, many coastal communities are seeing their tax base eroded as properties become more difficult to sell.  Parts of Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Hampton and York County are approaching what is described in the article.  Here are article excerpts:

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Elizabeth Boineau’s 1939 Colonial sits a block and a half from the Ashley River in a sought-after neighborhood of ancient live oaks, charming gardens and historic homes. A year ago, she thought she could sell it for nearly $1 million. But after dropping the price 11 times, Boineau has decided to tear it down.

In March, the city’s Board of Architectural Review approved the demolition — a decision not taken lightly in Charleston’s historic district.

“Each time that I was just finishing up paying off the bills, another flood would hit,” Boineau said.

Boineau is one of many homeowners on the front lines of society’s confrontation with climate change, living in houses where rising sea levels have worsened flooding not just in extreme events like hurricanes, but also heavy rains and even high tides. Now, three studies have found evidence that the threat of higher seas is also undermining coastal property values, as home buyers — particularly investors — begin the retreat to higher ground.

The sea has risen about eight inches since 1900, and the pace is accelerating, with three inches accumulating since 1993, according to a comprehensive federal climate report released last year. Scientists predict the oceans will rise another three to seven inches by 2030, and as much as 4.3 feet by 2100.

Meanwhile, mapping has become increasingly precise, providing near-exact elevations that let researchers predict when individual properties could be underwater.

[R]esearchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder and Pennsylvania State University found that vulnerable homes sold for 6.6 percent less than unexposed homes. The most vulnerable properties — those that stand to be flooded after seas rise by just one foot ­— were selling at a 14.7 percent discount, according to the study, which is set to be published in the Journal of Financial Economics.

The study found the drop in prices appears to be driven primarily by investors buying multiple properties or second homes. Such buyers tend to be wealthier and better educated than owners who occupy their coastal homes . . . . “Sophisticated buyers . . . demand a discount to bear the risk of future sea level rise,” Lewis said in an email.

The most-studied market has been Miami-Dade County, parts of which have for years been experiencing regular sunny-day flooding. In a separate paper published in April, researchers at Harvard University found that properties at higher elevations were appreciating faster than properties at lower elevations, a phenomenon they dubbed “climate gentrification.”

Last month, the nonprofit First Street Foundation released the first analysis to single out Charleston, a gracious port city founded in 1670. The analysis suggests that exposed homes in Charleston have lost $266 million in value since 2005 due to coastal flooding and expectations of still higher seas. (Using the same method, the First Street researchers found a $465 million loss in Miami-Dade County.)

Home prices on the coast are “going up along with market trends. They’re just not going up as fast as other places,” said Jeremy Porter, a Columbia University researcher who conducted the First Street study with Steven McAlpine, the group’s head of data science.

Boineau put her house on the market last August priced just shy of $1 million, after repairs from two straight years of flooding that had come up under the house but left the interior largely unaffected. Then in September, the remnants of Hurricane Irma inundated the first floor of the house with eight inches of water. . . . .she dropped the price down to $599,900 and went through a lengthy process to get permission for demolition.  Now, Boineau says, a new buyer can build a new elevated property on the lot. When that’s done, her real estate agent, Robin Reeves, said the property should “go for 1.3 to 1.4 million dollars.”

Charleston Mayor John Tecklenburg (I) — himself a former real estate agent — said the city is looking for other ways to protect property values. Officials are considering a “comprehensive set of flooding and sea-level-rise strategies,” including improving pumping systems and raising Charleston’s Battery, a sea wall at the tip of the peninsula.

But those are expensive and complex solutions, Tecklenburg said; even if Charleston had the money, designs are not even in place yet for all of the potential engineering projects.

As city officials adjust, so do Charleston residents. Unable to find a buyer willing to purchase and then repair the home, Boineau decided to demolish it and sell the lot in Harleston Village. She is now renting a condo just across the river from the city’s central peninsula in West Ashley, where her new neighbors have assured her there has been no flooding. She hopes to buy there after the Harleston lot sells. “Charleston,” she said, “is still an incredible place to live.”

In our home we have installed three industrial sump pumps and a whole house generator (to the tune of $20,000) and after the 2009 Nor'Ida storm more or less waterproofed the first floor by installing marble floors and non water absorbent wainscoting.  The combined effect?  No standing water in the house and merely mopping out any water that may seep into the house in any future storm.  Numerous homes in our neighborhood are much more vulnerable than our home. Yes, sea level rise is costly. 

Global Warming is Already Flooding America's Coasts

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UPDATED 9-6-2016:  For more images of just how much of a reality global warming and rising sea levels are for the Hampton Roads area, check out the photos at AltDaily here.  As I said before, if you care about global warming and climate change, the ONLY option on election day is to vote a straight Democrat ticket. 

Having just dodged a bullet with Tropical Storm Hermine - the photo above shows Robinson Creek close to flooding into our back yard shown in the background - many of us in Hampton Roads know and understand that global warming's impact on sea levels is real and that it is happening now.  The second photo was taken by a friend in the Ocean View section of Norfolk from her home more than an hour before high tide.  Many other areas of Norfolk and even our neighborhood flooded and as of this morning, my sister in Virginia Beach is still without power.  What's really frightening is that Hermine was not even a major storm.  Sea levels ARE rising - at the Norfolk Naval Base, the level is a foot and a half higher than less than 100 years ago.  Yet despite this, we see Republicans ranging from Donald Trump on down saying that global warming and its impacts is a "hoax."  Here in Virginia, GOP legislators will not even allow the use of the term even as the economic powerhouse of the Virginia Port Authority and numerous military bases are threatened.  A piece in the New York Times looks at the reality that is already happening while the GOP remains in denial.  Here are highlights:

NORFOLK, Va. — Huge vertical rulers are sprouting beside low spots in the streets here, so people can judge if the tidal floods that increasingly inundate their roads are too deep to drive through.

Five hundred miles down the Atlantic Coast, the only road to Tybee Island, Ga., is disappearing beneath the sea several times a year, cutting the town off from the mainland.

And another 500 miles on, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., increased tidal flooding is forcing the city to spend millions fixing battered roads and drains — and, at times, to send out giant vacuum trucks to suck saltwater off the streets.

For decades, as the global warming created by human emissions caused land ice to melt and ocean water to expand, scientists warned that the accelerating rise of the sea would eventually imperil the United States’ coastline.

Federal scientists have documented a sharp jump in this nuisance flooding — often called “sunny-day flooding” — along both the East Coast and the Gulf Coast in recent years. The sea is now so near the brim in many places that they believe the problem is likely to worsen quickly. Shifts in the Pacific Ocean mean that the West Coast, partly spared over the past two decades, may be hit hard, too.

These tidal floods are often just a foot or two deep, but they can stop traffic, swamp basements, damage cars, kill lawns and forests, and poison wells with salt. Moreover, the high seas interfere with the drainage of storm water.

In coastal regions, that compounds the damage from the increasingly heavy rains plaguing the country, like those that recently caused extensive flooding in Louisiana. Scientists say these rains are also a consequence of human greenhouse emissions.

“Once impacts become noticeable, they’re going to be upon you quickly,” said William V. Sweet, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Silver Spring, Md., who is among the leaders in research on coastal inundation. “It’s not a hundred years off — it’s now.”

[L]ocal leaders say they cannot tackle this problem alone. They are pleading with state and federal governments for guidance and help, including billions to pay for flood walls, pumps and road improvements that would buy them time.

Yet Congress has largely ignored these pleas, and has even tried to block plans by the military to head off future problems at the numerous bases imperiled by a rising sea. A Republican congressman from Colorado, Ken Buck, recently called one military proposal part of a “radical climate change agenda.”

As the problem worsens, experts are warning that national security is on the line. Naval bases, in particular, are threatened; they can hardly be moved away from the ocean, yet much of their land is at risk of disappearing within this century.

Because the land is sinking as the ocean rises, Norfolk and the metropolitan region surrounding it, known as Hampton Roads, are among the worst-hit parts of the United States. That local factor means, in essence, that the region is a few decades ahead in feeling the effects of sea-level rise, and illustrates what people along the rest of the American coast can expect.

The biggest problems involve frequent flooding of homes and roads. As the sea rises, hundreds of tidal creeks and marshes that thread through the region are bringing saltwater to people’s doorsteps.

As the national response lags, experts warn that the flooding is putting the country’s defense at risk.

Several studies have concluded that Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval base, is profoundly threatened by rising seas, as are other coastal bases. The Pentagon has managed to build floodgates and other protective measures at some facilities. But attempts by the military to develop broader climate change plans have met fierce resistance in Congress.

That was the case this summer, when an effort by the Pentagon to appoint officers to take charge of climate resilience led to a House vote prohibiting taxpayer money from being spent on the plan.

Many people in Congress, almost all of them Republicans, express doubt about climate science, with some of them promulgating conspiracy theories claiming that researchers have invented the issue to justify greater governmental control over people’s lives. So far, this ideological position has been immune to the rising evidence of harm from human-induced climate change.

Scientists had long hoped that any disintegration of the ice sheets would take thousands of years, but recent research suggests the breakup of West Antarctica could occur much faster. In the worst-case scenario, this research suggests, the rate of sea-level rise could reach a foot per decade by the 22nd century, about 10 times faster than today.

In 2013, scientists reached a consensus that three feet was the highest plausible rise by the year 2100. But now some of them are starting to say that six or seven feet may be possible. A rise that large over a span of decades would be an unparalleled national catastrophe, driving millions of people from their homes and most likely requiring the abandonment of entire cities.

Along those parts of the United States coast that are sinking at a brisk clip, including southern Louisiana and the entire Chesapeake Bay region, including Norfolk, the situation will be worse than average. On the Pacific Coast, a climate pattern that had pushed billions of gallons of water toward Asia is now ending, so that in coming decades the sea is likely to rise quickly off states like Oregon and California.

Read the entire article.  What can one do?  For starters, vote ignorance embracing Republicans out of office. For local homeowners, start water proofing your homes and make them flood resistant.  Personally, our next step will probably be to build a high berm around the perimeter of the backyard and then landscape it so that it's real purpose is camouflaged.  That, of course, will take time and money that many people simply do not have.

Water coming up the storm drain in front of the house (last October, water came half way up the driveway) 

Waiting For High Tide

UPDATED: High tide has passed and we dodged a bullet today.  Minor flooding in the backyard and in the front yard.  The biggest issue? Cretins in their jacked up pickup trucks blasting through the water in the street - some going by 6 to 8 times.  Excuse, me, but if you drive a jacked up pickup, in my estimation, your are likely a red neck moron.  I think it is time to build a decorative wall along the sidewalk to act as a barrier from the waves these idiots send towards the house.  Today this was not an issue, but in higher flood tides it is a real problem.

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Unlike areas to the west and south, most of Hampton Roads has not suffered from super heavy rains.  The main issue has been wind and high tides with this afternoon's high tide expected to nearly reach the level experienced with Hurricane Sandy.  The view above is of our house from across the creek with high tide still 2 and 1/2 hours away.   Normally, we have 5+ feet of rip rap seawall above the water level. 

If  we do not surpass Sandy's levels, we should only have a small amount of water in the garage where the industrial size sump pump will quickly deal with it.  Parts of Norfolk (thankfully, not where my house near ODU is located) have been flooded the last three days.  I will keep folks posted!

Navy Sets Sortie Condition Charlie due to Hurricane Joaquin

While there is still much uncertainty as to what the actual track of Hurricane will be, the Hampton Roads area is beginning to brace for a possible close shave - or a direct hit - from Hurricane Joaquin which is now a category 3 storm and which may increase to a category 4 storm.  Many computer models continue to show Joaquin either brushing the Virginia coast or, in some cases, traveling up Chesapeake Bay.  The image above shows the storm track decidedly to the west of early projections.

As WAVY-TV 10 reports, the U. S. Navy has place all Hampton Roads home ported ships on standby to sail within 48 hours in order to get to sea before Joaquin approaches the area so that the ships can better ride out or elude the storm.  If the ships do indeed sortie, it is NOT a good omen.  Here are story highlights:

All Navy ships in Hampton Roads have been ordered to Sortie Condition Charlie due to Hurricane Joaquin.

The order was issued Wednesday as precaution due to the hurricane’s possible approach to the area this weekend. Sortie Condition Charlie means all ships must be prepared to get underway within 48 hours if deemed necessary.

Navy officials also ordered all installations in the area to set Tropical Cyclone Condition Four, meaning the trend indicates possible destructive winds within 72 hours. The hurricane is expected to bring high winds and rain to the Mid-Atlantic coast.

 For the husband and I, these types of forecasts make us think back to Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and the Nor'Ida storm in 2009 when our home looked as in this image:

As noted in prior posts, since the 2009 storm, we have waterproofed the first floor up to 3 feet from floor level, installed a whole house generator, and installed 3 industrial sum pumps that can pump 21,000 gallons of water per hour.   We take these storms very seriously and I hope others do as well.  Thankfully, Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe has declared a state of emergency to encourage citizens and localities to make necessary precautionary preparations.

Joaquin - 50 Knot Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

The well know waiting game continues as locals watch to see where Tropical Storm Joaquin heads as the week goes on.  It's a safe bet that the weather will truly suck in terms of heavy rains and gusty winds even if Joaquin stays a ways off shore.  Folks up the coast to the north should likewise pay attention.   We've had the generator serviced and will be testing the three large sump pumps just to play it safe.

Then there is this from NBC News:

Now check out this:  It's a compilation of many of the US models on Joaquin-- and there's a strong consensus toward a VA. Beach landfall: 

This track would be CATASTROPHIC and cause major damage across the state.  Power outages, trees down, flooding rain:  All are on the table.

BUT
The European model, which is very good model (and the one that sniffed out Superstorm Sandy early) still has Joaquin well offshore.  This would be good news, but Joaquin could still interact with the Jet Stream, a stalled cold front, and some upper level energy to produce big wind and rain.  But the offshore track would mean much less damage.

 As I said, the joys of coastal living.

Likely Tropical Storm Joaquin to threaten Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast

So far this year the Atlantic tropical storm season has been minimal with storms remaining out to sea and posing no serious threat to the east coast.  This all may change this weekend as a tropical depression likely to become Tropical Storm Joaquin heads northward from the Bahamas region.  True to form, the various models that predict where the storm will go are all over the place.  The Hampton Roads region has not had a serious brush with tropical weather since Hurricane Sandy three years ago which just brushed by on its way to slam New Jersey and New York.  Historically, it has been the "I" named storms - Isabel, Ida and Irene - that have flooded our home. Since then, we have installed a whole house generator and three large pumps in the house.  Most of Hampton Roads still has no real plan to deal with climate change/rising sea levels.  Here are highlights from the Washington Post on what may be ahead:

A tropical depression that formed northeast of the Bahamas has a chance to significantly impact the East Coast later this week.

Depending on its exact track, which is highly uncertain, heavy rain could impact coastal areas anywhere from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England and even expand inland west of the I-95 corridor. In addition to the rain, coastal areas could also face gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion and flooding — depending on how the system evolves.

Conditions could become more favorable for intensification in 24-48 hours when the depression could attain tropical storm status, earning the name Joaquin.

Model track forecasts for this system are widely divergent – ranging from landfall along the North Carolina coast to Long Island. “[C]onfidence in the track forecast is rather low,” the National Hurricane Center stresses.

The European model presents an ominous scenario in which a tropical storm makes landfall near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay Saturday night spreading gusty winds and heavy rain across the Mid-Atlantic. Such a scenario could result in storm surge flooding for the Virginia, Maryland and Delaware beaches and up the Chesapeake Bay.

The latest GFS model, however, targets the region from central New Jersey to New York City (and points north) with a direct hit Friday night. Under this scenario, the Mid-Atlantic is more or less missed with perhaps just a brief period of rain.

Not only is the track uncertain, but so too is the type of weather system that will affect the coast, whether it’s a tropical depression, a tropical storm, hurricane (as predicted by some high resolution models), or a post (non-) tropical storm.

 The joys of coastal living!

Sea Level Rise - Forward Thinking Solutions Needed

Climate change and rising sea levels may be myths in the minds of Republicans and the Christofascists who cling to biblical fantasies, but for those of us living on the coast, it's all too real and the risks of flooding are all too real.  So far, most cities in the Hampton Roads area - Norfolk is the exception - have done nothing to address the growing problem of higher tides and increased storm damage.  That leaves residents to fend for themselves - the husband and I over the last five years have waterproofed the first floor of our home up to chair rail height, installed three industrial sump pumps and a whole house generator to power the pumps should we lose power, and built our own flood doors to put in place in the event of an approaching hurricane or sever northeaster.  The Virginia General Assembly has done nothing to date other than Republicans forbidding the use of the terms "climate change" and "sea level rise" - "areas of repetitive flooding' is the only allowed term.  An editorial in the Washington Post makes the case that progressive, forward think solutions need to be developed despite GOP intransigence.  Here are some highlights:

“THIS IS really happening,” NASA’s Thomas P. Wagner told the New York Times in May, describing the collapse of ice formations in western Antarctica. Since then, the news has only gotten worse.

According to a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters, the ice loss in a particularly vulnerable Antarctic region has accelerated over the past two decades — to 18 billion tons a year, three times the 20-year average. A Mount Everest’s worth of ice has slipped away every couple of years, researchers from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at Irvine found, comparing data from four different sources.

All of these findings are bad news for sea levels, which could rise on the high end of scientists’ estimates over the coming decades if Antarctica continues down the path it seems to be on. That would inundate coastal communities in the United States and elsewhere.

As with so many alarming natural hazards, directly attributing some or all of western Antarctica’s ice loss to climate change is still a difficult business. But that is not a reason for comfort. Even in the surprising circumstance that there is no connection in this particular case, humans have no interest in policies that risk raising sea levels further.

Instead of using various uncertainties as excuses to do little or nothing — including questions about how all sorts of natural systems will react to a warmer world — leaders should hedge against major risks, just like big corporations do all the time.

There is nothing conservative about betting the climate on self-serving hopes that things will turn out fine, forcing future generations to live with whatever consequences result. There is nothing conservative about the subsidy the federal government gives carbon-intensive industries when it allows them to release greenhouse gases for free into the common air.

Yet Republicans are gearing up to protect that federal giveaway tooth-and-nail. The Senate’s incoming majority leader, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), has promised major fights with the White House on Environmental Protection Agency climate rules. GOP leaders in various states, backed by industry lobbying groups, are coordinating legal and political attacks of their own, aiming for delays and, possibly, cancellation of the rules. 

It’s fine if Republicans want to get rid of the EPA’s regulations, which aren’t the cheapest way to cut carbon emissions. But in that case, they should enact another, more efficient anti-carbon policy with similar or greater ambition. Doing anything else would be sheer malpractice — and proof that the GOP does not deserve the public’s trust.

Sea Level Rise Putting America's Largest Navy Base at-Risk

If you listen to Republicans - e.g., Senator Inhofe - climate change and global warming aren't happening.  It's all a conspiracy in the minds of these lunatics.  The real conspiracy is between the Koch brothers and the oil and coal industries which seek to perpetuate the myth that climate change is not occurring and that humankind have no role in the visible changes occurring. As local TV-13 reports, the signs are clear at the Norfolk Naval Base - which boasts that it is the largest in the world - and Senator Tim Kaine says that it is time to address reality.  He and those like him who are in touch with objective reality will have an uphill battle given the GOP control of the Senate starting next month.  Here are article highlights:

Touring a flood-prone neighborhood blocks from the world's largest Naval base, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine said Thursday, the time to act is now. Kaine is calling for a combination of needed infrastructure investments, and a reduction of U.S. dependence of carbon-based energy sources.

Probably the most sobering thing to me dealing with this sea level rise issue is the affect on the main Naval base," Kaine said. "Being on Armed Services, this is the center of Naval power in the world and such an important center for America. And when you contemplate the main road into the base eventually being underwater three hours a day in 2040, not because of storms but because of normal tidal action, by 2040, being underwater three hours a day, that was the one thing that made me snap back and say, I've got to take this seriously."

Kaine's comments follow an October Department of Defense report which concluded that Naval Station Norfolk would be at-risk, if, as many scientists have predicted, sea level rises 14 to 18 inches in the next 20 to 50 years.

"We have the time to make the investments to improve the infrastructure," he said. "We just really have to find these resiliency investments to protect this important key to America's national security."

The GOP likes to depict itself as the party of national security yet lunatics like Inhofe are acting as military leaders did on the evening of December 6, 1941.   Not wanting to admit/believe something doesn't make it not true.  At least not outside of the insane asylum known as the Republican Party.

flooded Navy pier parking lot

Norfolk: A Struggle Between Rising Waters and Sinking Options

Norfolk 2003 - Hurricane Isabel, a weak category 1 storm

As a recent deluge on a workday morning that coincided with high tide strikingly illustrated, Norfolk, Virginia, has a growing flooding problem as the sea level's rise and the land area continues to sink.  Other than New Orleans, Norfolk faces the worse dangers to rising sea levels of any city on the East Cost of America.  I sparked a Facebook debate which played out with Republicans blowing off the issue and saying that "Norfolk has always flooded."  Yes, it has, but it is getting much worse.  It is also too typical that these unconcerned Republicans live on relatively high ground in Virginia Beach and probably have not frequented Norfolk in a rainstorm in decades.  A piece in the Washington Post looks at the problem faced by the city.  Here are highlights:

At high tide on the small inlet next to Norfolk’s most prestigious art museum, the water lapped at the very top of the concrete sea wall that has held it back for 100 years. It seeped up through storm drains, puddled on the promenade and spread, half a foot deep, across the street, where a sign read, “Road Closed.”

The sun was shining, but all around the inlet people were bracing for more serious flooding. The Chrysler Museum of Art had just completed a $24 million renovation that emptied the basement, now accessible only by ladder, and lifted the heating and air-conditioning systems to the top floor. A local accounting firm stood behind a homemade barricade of stanchions and detachable flaps rigged to keep the water out. And the congregation of the Unitarian Church of Norfolk was looking to evacuate.

On May 6, the Obama administration released the third National Climate Assessment, and President Obama proclaimed climate change no longer a theory; its effects, he said, are already here. This came as no surprise in Norfolk, where normal tides have risen one and a half feet over the past century and the sea is rising faster than anywhere else on the East Coast. 

The more urgent question is what to do about it — and how to pay for it. For that, the White House has offered few answers.

Obama has turned only recently to the matter of preparing the nation for effects that scientists say already are inevitable. Last year, the Government Accountability Office added climate change to its “high-risk” list, declaring that the lack of planning poses “significant financial risks” to the federal government, which funds flood and crop insurance, pays for disaster relief and owns hundreds of facilities exposed to rising seas.

Meanwhile, there is no new money to help hard-hit places such as Norfolk, where residents are clamoring for relief.

Norfolk exists because of the sea. Ships have been built in its harbors since the Revolutionary War. It is home to the largest naval base on the globe. Bounded by the Chesapeake Bay and two rivers, sliced by coastal creeks, Norfolk has always been vulnerable to flooding. But over the past decade, people began noticing alarming trends. 

Hurricanes and nor’easters became more frequent and more damaging. Even ordinary rainstorms swamped intersections, washed away parked cars and marooned the region’s major medical center. Before 1980, the inlet near the Chrysler Museum, known as the Hague, had never flooded for more than 100 hours in a year. By 2009, it was routinely flooded for 200 and even 300 hours a year.

The city hired a Dutch consulting firm to develop an action plan, finalized in 2012, that called for new flood gates, higher roads and a retooled storm water system. Implementing the plan would cost more than $1 billion — the size of the city’s entire annual budget — and protect Norfolk from about a foot of additional water. 

Options for dealing with the water are limited, and expensive. The city could protect itself with more barriers.

A second option calls for people to abandon the most vulnerable parts of town, to “retreat somewhat from the sea,” as Mayor Paul D. Fraim put it in a 2011 interview, when he became the first sitting politician in the nation to raise the prospect.

For now, Williams said, retreat is not on the table “on a large scale,” though “you may look at localized hot spots.”
That leaves the third option: adaptation. Raising buildings, roads and other critical infrastructure. Last fall, the city council required all new structures to be built three feet above flood level, one of the strictest standards in the state.

The problem is particularly urgent in Norfolk and the rest of Tidewater Virginia — which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has ranked second only to New Orleans in terms of population threatened by sea-level rise — due to a fateful convergence of lousy luck. First, the seas are generally rising as the planet warms. Second, the Gulf Stream is circulating more slowly, causing more water to slosh toward the North Atlantic coast. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey declared a 600-mile stretch of coastline, from North Carolina’s Cape Hatteras to Boston, a “sea-level rise hotspot,” with rates increasing at three to four times the global average.

Driving around town, Atkinson and his colleague Michelle Covi recently pointed out dozens of places where water regularly fills the streets, keeping people from work. “By 2040, this will be flooded every high tide,” Atkinson said as he drove north on Hampton Boulevard. “That means the main road to the Navy base will be impassable two to three hours a day.”

At Naval Station Norfolk, sea-level rise prompted a decision in the late 1990s to raise the station’s 12 piers, said Joe Bouchard, base commander at the time. Construction has since been completed on only four, he said, adding that work was halted in 2008, when the recession hit, the federal budget deficit soared and Congress began frantically slashing spending.

Read the entire story.  Ghent, one of Norfolk's most trendy and progress neighborhoods is especially prone to flooding - as are others - and despite the denial and sticking their heads in the sand on the part of the Republicans, the problem is getting worse.  Meanwhile, the Virginia GOP will not even allow the terms "rising sea levels" and "global warming" to be used.

Will Insurance Company Lawsuits Force Government to Address Climate Change?

Here in Virginia, the Virginia GOP will not even allow legislative committees to use the terms "climate change," "global warming," or "rising sea levels."  The only term that the head in the sand (or perhaps nose up energy company asses) Republicans will countenance is "areas of repetitive flooding."  Never mind the findings of the vast majority of climate scientists.  Never mind the events that are unfolding such as the extreme flooding that Norfolk and other areas suffered from simply heavy rains and high tides (see the image above).  So what might force a change?  Perhaps class action lawsuits by insurance carriers against municipalities that fail take measures to address climate change threats.  Think Progress looks at one such lawsuit which could be the first of many.  Here are highlights:

Last month, Farmers Insurance Co. filed nine class-action lawsuits arguing that local governments in the Chicago area are aware that climate change is leading to heavier rainfall but are failing to prepare accordingly. The suits allege that the localities did not do enough to prepare sewers and stormwater drains in the area during a two-day downpour last April. In what could foreshadow a legal reckoning of who is liable for the costs of climate change, the class actions against nearly 200 Chicago-area communities look to place responsibility on municipalities, perhaps spurring them to take a more forward-looking approach in designing and engineering for a future made different by climate change. 

“Farmers is asking to be reimbursed for the claims it paid to homeowners who sometimes saw geysers of sewage ruin basement walls, floors and furniture,” reported E&E News. “The company says it also paid policyholders for lost income, the cost of evacuations and other damages related to declining property values.”

 While these suits are the first of their kind, Micahel Gerrard, director of the Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School in New York, told Reuters that there will be more cases like them attempting to address how city and local governments should manage budgets to prepare for natural disasters that have been intensified by climate change.

Insurance companies are becoming increasingly concerned, and more vocal, about the rising costs of climate change. With large fossil fuel companies reluctant to take greenhouse gas mitigation efforts in the face of potential profit losses, the behemoth insurance industry could provide a counterbalance to the energy industry when it comes to incentivizing near-term emissions cuts, or at least adaptation to the effects of climate change.

“Most insurers, including the reinsurance companies that bear much of the ultimate risk in the industry, have little time for the arguments heard in some right-wing circles that climate change isn’t happening, and are quite comfortable with the scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels is the main culprit of global warming,” reported the New York Times.

“The implications of this are profound because the insurance sector is a key driver of the economy. If climate change undermines the future availability of insurance products and risk management services in major markets throughout the U.S., it threatens the economy and taxpayers as well.”

America's East Coast - Rising Sea, Sinking Land

A young kayaker on Manchester Avenue in Norfolk, Va., in October 2012, when Hurricane Sandy caused flooding. Norfolk is struggling to cope with rising seawater and sinking land. Matthew Eich for The New York Times

The last time I wrote about the rising sea levels impacting America's East Coast a far right commenter left a spittle flecked comment (which I did not publish) ranting that natural forces are at work on the situation facing the East Coast and denying that human activity had any role in the growing problem for cities like Norfolk, Virginia.  For clarity - lest the same anonymous climate change denier revisit this blog - I do NOT deny that some natural forces are at play.  However, man made phenomenon are making the situation worse and accelerating the problems as laid out in these excerpts from a story in the New York Times (NOTE: Here in Virginia, GOP legislators bar the use of the term "rising sea levels" and insist on using the term "areas of repetitive flooding" rather even partially admit that climate change is occurring):

Scientists have spent decades examining all the factors that can influence the rise of the seas, and their research is finally leading to answers. And the more the scientists learn, the more they perceive an enormous risk for the United States.

Much of the population and economy of the country is concentrated on the East Coast, which the accumulating scientific evidence suggests will be a global hot spot for a rising sea level over the coming century.

The detective work has required scientists to grapple with the influence of ancient ice sheets, the meaning of islands that are sinking in the Chesapeake Bay, and even the effect of a giant meteor that slammed into the earth.

The work starts with the tides. Because of their importance to navigation, they have been measured for the better part of two centuries. While the record is not perfect, scientists say it leaves no doubt that the world’s oceans are rising.

The evidence suggests that the sea-level rise has probably accelerated, to about a foot a century, and scientists think it will accelerate still more with the continued emission of large amounts of greenhouse gases into the air. The gases heat the planet and cause land ice to melt into the sea.

The official stance of the world’s climate scientists is that the global sea level could rise as much as three feet by the end of this century, if emissions continue at a rapid pace. But some scientific evidence supports even higher numbers, five feet and beyond in the worst case.

Scientists say the East Coast will be hit harder for many reasons, but among the most important is that even as the seawater rises, the land in this part of the world is sinking. And that goes back to the last ice age, which peaked some 20,000 years ago.

As a massive ice sheet, more than a mile thick, grew over what are now Canada and the northern reaches of the United States, the weight of it depressed the crust of the earth. Areas away from the ice sheet bulged upward in response, as though somebody had stepped on one edge of a balloon, causing the other side to pop up. Now that the ice sheet has melted, the ground that was directly beneath it is rising, and the peripheral bulge is falling.

Some degree of sinking is going on all the way from southern Maine to northern Florida, and it manifests itself as an apparent rising of the sea.

Coastal flooding has already become such a severe problem that Norfolk is spending millions to raise streets and improve drainage. Truly protecting the city could cost as much as $1 billion, money that Norfolk officials say they do not have. Norfolk’s mayor, Paul Fraim, made headlines a couple of years ago by acknowledging that some areas might eventually have to be abandoned.

[A]mong the American public, the impulse toward denial is still strong. But in towns like Norfolk — where neighborhoods are already flooding repeatedly even in the absence of storms, and where some homes have become unsaleable — people are starting to pay attention.

Would that more people were paying attention in both Richmond and Washington, D.C.

AVERAGE SEA LEVEL RISE

measured by tide gauges

1.5 inches or more per decade