NOAA: 45 Percent Chance of Above-Normal Hurricane Activity.

While the Trump/Pence regime continues to deny that climate change is real and that weather patterns are changing as a result, on Wednesday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ("NOAA") announced that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. More named storms and stronger storms are part of the prediction.  For those of us living on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, this is not welcomed news. Here in Hampton Roads where the population has surged, no major hurricane has hit in decades and evacuation routes - Interstate 64, Route 58, and Route 460 - are limited and traffic gridlock virtually guaranteed.  With large industrial sump pumps, waterproofing of the entire first floor, and a natural gas powered whole house generator, our home is more prepared than most, but one would truly rather not put such preparedness to a test. The Washington Post looks at NOAA's updated forecast:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Wednesday morning that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. It now estimates a 45 percent chance of an above-average season and a 20 percent chance of the season being below average — an impressive upward jump from its initial predictions in May.

“We are now entering the peak months of August through October,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster. “Historically, 95 percent of hurricanes, and most major hurricanes, occur during this time frame. That’s why we do an update to the outlook. An above-normal season has the highest chance of occurring.”

NOAA is now predicting between 10 and 17 named storms, five to nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. . . . . More important, the revised outlook is calling for two to four major hurricanes, referring to storms that achieve Category 3 status — or greater.

“In addition, the storms we end up getting could be longer-lived and stronger than we had forecast back in May,” said Bell, who referred to the early demise of an El Niño pattern that is typically hostile to hurricanes. “Winds now are forecast to be much more hospitable” to hurricanes.

Bell emphasized that it’s impossible to predict this far ahead whether these storms will hit land. “That comes down to local weather patterns at the time the storm’s approaching,” he said. That can’t be done before a storm has developed. “We just can’t make seasonal landfall predictions.”

The season may seem to be off to a slow start, but in reality that’s normal. Strong hurricanes rarely form before mid- to late August. . . . “But the pattern switches in August. We start getting storms from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. It’s a completely different formation mechanism.” And those are the storms that ride all the way across the Atlantic, gathering strength and, on occasion, metastasizing into monsters.

Bell emphasized the need for early preparedness, suggesting that residents along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard take advantage of the next few quiet weeks now before a storm develops.  “This applies to both coastal and inland residents,” he said. “It’s not only about the numbers. It only takes one storm.”

Bell says that we’ve been in the midst of a more active period of hurricane activity since 1995. . . . The past few years have experienced a spike in hurricane activity. Included was Hurricane Michael in October, the first Category 5 U.S. landfall since Andrew in 1992. Florence dropped nearly three feet of rain in North Carolina, coming on the heels of a 2017 season that featured Harvey, Irma and Maria. Bell warns this year could be another memorable one.

The image above is an unsettling model of a hurricane with a 13 foot storm surge.   People need to take the risk seriously.