NOAA: 45 Percent Chance of Above-Normal Hurricane Activity.

While the Trump/Pence regime continues to deny that climate change is real and that weather patterns are changing as a result, on Wednesday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ("NOAA") announced that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. More named storms and stronger storms are part of the prediction.  For those of us living on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, this is not welcomed news. Here in Hampton Roads where the population has surged, no major hurricane has hit in decades and evacuation routes - Interstate 64, Route 58, and Route 460 - are limited and traffic gridlock virtually guaranteed.  With large industrial sump pumps, waterproofing of the entire first floor, and a natural gas powered whole house generator, our home is more prepared than most, but one would truly rather not put such preparedness to a test. The Washington Post looks at NOAA's updated forecast:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Wednesday morning that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. It now estimates a 45 percent chance of an above-average season and a 20 percent chance of the season being below average — an impressive upward jump from its initial predictions in May.

“We are now entering the peak months of August through October,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster. “Historically, 95 percent of hurricanes, and most major hurricanes, occur during this time frame. That’s why we do an update to the outlook. An above-normal season has the highest chance of occurring.”

NOAA is now predicting between 10 and 17 named storms, five to nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. . . . . More important, the revised outlook is calling for two to four major hurricanes, referring to storms that achieve Category 3 status — or greater.

“In addition, the storms we end up getting could be longer-lived and stronger than we had forecast back in May,” said Bell, who referred to the early demise of an El Niño pattern that is typically hostile to hurricanes. “Winds now are forecast to be much more hospitable” to hurricanes.

Bell emphasized that it’s impossible to predict this far ahead whether these storms will hit land. “That comes down to local weather patterns at the time the storm’s approaching,” he said. That can’t be done before a storm has developed. “We just can’t make seasonal landfall predictions.”

The season may seem to be off to a slow start, but in reality that’s normal. Strong hurricanes rarely form before mid- to late August. . . . “But the pattern switches in August. We start getting storms from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. It’s a completely different formation mechanism.” And those are the storms that ride all the way across the Atlantic, gathering strength and, on occasion, metastasizing into monsters.

Bell emphasized the need for early preparedness, suggesting that residents along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard take advantage of the next few quiet weeks now before a storm develops.  “This applies to both coastal and inland residents,” he said. “It’s not only about the numbers. It only takes one storm.”

Bell says that we’ve been in the midst of a more active period of hurricane activity since 1995. . . . The past few years have experienced a spike in hurricane activity. Included was Hurricane Michael in October, the first Category 5 U.S. landfall since Andrew in 1992. Florence dropped nearly three feet of rain in North Carolina, coming on the heels of a 2017 season that featured Harvey, Irma and Maria. Bell warns this year could be another memorable one.

The image above is an unsettling model of a hurricane with a 13 foot storm surge.   People need to take the risk seriously.

Hurricane Florence Threatens East Coast

One of the worries of traveling in September when one lives on the Southeast coast of the USA is that a hurricane could pop up and threaten your home while you are away and unable to prepare for the storm.  That possible nightmare is becoming a reality as Florence menaces the East Coast with little chance of swerving out to sea.   The husband and I are left hoping the disaster strikes somewhere else and spares Hampton Roads form serious damage.  Our number on concern is storm surge since we live on a tidal creek just across the street from Hampton Roads harbor.  Friends have already moved our cars to higher ground and, if the prognosis is bad, roll up the oriental rugs on the first floor and move them to the second floor and also remove the covers for the industrial grade sump pumps we installed in 2012 in strategic locations in the house.   With a natural gas fueled whole house generator also installed in 2012, the hope is that the pumps can avoid standing water in the first floor which has been made water resistant up to three feet from the marble floors.  The first floor water resistance work was done in 2009 after the Nor'Ida storm slammed Hampton Roads.  Below is the September 9, 2018, 11:00 pm update from the hurricane center at NOAA.

As we begin our visit to London in earnest, the shadow of Florence will hang over us. On today's agenda is Kensington Place and an exhibition of Princess Dianna's clothing. 

As the previous post notes, we are always conscious of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean and Hurricane Irma is no exception - especially given the uncertainty of its likely path.  The coming days will hopefully bring some increased reliability to forecasts of its track and allow people to know if they need to make preparations.  Mother Jones looks at the still uncertain nature of Irma's path:

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Irma will remain powerful for days and meteorologists are already in awe of the storm’s potential strength, but it’s too soon to tell where the storm is headed. 

“I’m seeing some of the highest wind forecast that I’ve seen,” Michael Ventrice, a meteorological scientist, tells Mother Jones. What’s striking about Irma is how early the models have predicted its strength. “You usually don’t see models predicting a Category 5,”  Ventrice says. “With regards to Harvey, we only had one to two days of knowing it would be a major storm.”

Meteorologists are running several models tracking the potential path of the storm. 

“Stronger storms typically curve up the Eastern Seaboard,” Ventrice says, “but there’s a split in the models,” which now predict the hurricane could make landfall anywhere from Florida, the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic region or back out to sea. Notably, Florida has not been directly hit by a hurricane since 2005. (Last year, Hurricane Matthew tracked perilously close to the state’s coast.)

Some models track the potential of the storm turning back out to sea, while others look at a potential path over the Caribbean islands and to the Gulf of Mexico. Weather patterns such as high and low pressure systems could also play a role in the path and intensity of the storm.

Those affected by Harvey and people on the east coast should keep an eye on the storm, but it’s much too early to take any protective measures. Ventrice warns that the storm is “still a wait and see type of thing.”

Climate Change And Budget Cuts Could Make This A Very Dangerous Hurricane Season

Saturday (i.e., yesterday) was June 1st and the start of the 2013 hurricane season - which is predicted to be a much more active season than normal.  For those of us living in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia which is ranked second after New Orleans in terms of flood risk, it is always a time of mixed feelings.  One welcomes the advent of summer yet dreads what the reason may portend.  With the Congressional Republicans opposing any serious discussion of climate change and rising sea levels and sequestration driven budget cuts for NOAA and other governmental departments that track hurricanes, one is not left with a "warm and fuzzy feeling."  Our home has flooded in past storms and we have taken measures to (i) waterproof the first floor, (ii) installed a whole house generator, and (iii)  installed industrial grade sump pumps to deal with any future flood wares.  Unfortunately, most homeowners do not have the financial resources to make such costly improvements.  A piece in Think Progress looks at how these combined factors could make the 2013 hurricane season particularly dangerous.  Here are story excerpts:

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Saturday and despite warnings of an above-average season and increasingly intense storms driven by climate change, key agencies are facing mandatory cuts that threaten their ability to prepare and protect at-risk communities.

In releasing its annual hurricane season outlook last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an “active or extremely active” season, with 13 to 20 named storms — 7 to 11 of which could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes.

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

In addition, climate change is fueling more intense and destructive storms. As Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, explains, “Climate change is causing a greater number of intense storms. The total number of storms has remained constant, but the proportion of high-intensity events has gone steadily upward in most parts of the world. Scientific models and real-world observations both suggest that the frequency of intense storms is going up.”

As climate change warms the oceans, water evaporates faster — driving stronger winds, more rain, and more powerful hurricanes. And as sea levels rise, the storm surges from hurricanes will be more destructive, posing a serious threat to coastal communities.

As coastal communities are increasingly vulnerable to more severe storms, across-the-board cuts mandated by the sequester could undermine the ability of federal agencies to keep communities informed and prepared for severe weather.

The National Weather Service, already cash-strapped and under scrutiny for sub-par computer modeling, will be grappling with a hiring freeze and mandatory furloughs as it heads into a potentially daunting hurricane season. The NWS office in Tallahassee, which typically has 18 meteorologists on staff, is down to 14 due to the cuts.


Though officials say they can maintain adequate staffing to provide critical services, such as forecasting at the National Hurricane Center in Miami and sending aircraft known as Hurricane Hunters into storms to measure speed and pressure, the staff and crews will be forced to take turns being furloughed.

With resources and personnel already stretched thin, the prospect of multiple major storms becomes even more daunting. “The biggest concern would be if we have a very active hurricane season and we have back-to-back storms or we have multiple storms hitting the state, they would simply not have the manpower necessary to ensure they have the appropriate coverage in all their field offices to provide us with the most accurate and timely forecast,” said Bryan Koon, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

As Sandy demonstrated, the ‘new normal’ of climate change-driven storms mandates a new level of preparedness. Instead, agencies responsible for predicting storms and protecting communities in harm’s way are being forced to grapple with significant cuts on the eve of what’s predicted to be a serious hurricane season.

Given the vulnerability of Southeastern Virginia to hurricane damage one would think that the Virgina GOP would be pushing for meaningful preparedness,  Instead, the Virginia GOP refuses to even admit that global warming and climate change is even occurring.  

Will GOP Budget Cuts Mean Missing The Next Hurricane Sandy?

(Image credit: Getty Images North America via @daylife)

In their quest to slash and burn all kinds of government programs while seeking to retain tax cuts for the wealthy, Congressional Republicans may be setting the stage for a horrific loss of life if NOAA doesn't receive adequate funding to replace its aging weather satellite system - the system that allowed most recently predictions of where Hurricane Sandy would make landfall and the potential size of the storm surge.  As a Forbes article indicates, America may be looking at a time period when there will be no weather satellite coverage.  As a result, thousands of lives may be at risk due to a lack of adequate warning of approaching hurricanes and northeasters.  Do Congressional Republicans give a damn?  Apparently not based on their obstructionism and apparent desire to push the country over the "fiscal cliff."  They'd rather pander to and curry the favor of the rabid dogs of the GOP base.  Perhaps Scott Rigell's constituents in vulnerable Virginia Beach, Hampton and Newport News need to get on Rigell's ass and demand that their safety be put ahead of his partisan political games. Here are article highlights:

One of the government services that most of us take for granted is weather forecasting. It’s the satellite data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that meteorologists in the U.S. rely on for accurate atmospheric data to make weather predictions. In particular, predicting the path of extreme weather conditions like hurricanes absolutely depend on NOAA’s polar weather satellites.

For example, if it weren’t for NOAA satellites, weather forecasters likely would not have been able to predict that Hurricane Sandy’s “left hook” into the Eastern Seaboard, which enabled local governments to undertake emergency preparations for the storm.

Unfortunately, due to what Undersecretary of Commerce Jane Lubchenco called, “chronic management problems,” it appears increasingly likely that the U.S. will have to suffer a at least a year without satellites starting around 2017 as the old satellites reach the end of their life cycle and the new ones are launched. And right now there’s no other alternative for getting that data,. The government is scrambling to do what it can to minimize the amount of time between the death of the old satellites and the launch of the new, but right now it looks like there will be at least some small gap.  But if we hit the Fiscal Cliff, all bets might be off.

According to the Aerospace Industries Association, a trade association representing aerospace manufacturers, the spending cuts mandated if the U.S. hits the Fiscal Cliff would include an 8.2 percent cut to NOAA’s weather satellite program. The association estimates that this would cost the jobs of 1,000 people who “design, build and operate weather satellites that have no equivalent or redundant system in the public or private sector.”

Regarding the potential for a loss of weather data, Craig J. Craft, commissioner of emergency management for Nassau County told the New York Times in October that ”We cannot afford to lose any enhancement that allows us to accurately forecast any weather event coming our way.”

Scott Rigell personifies much of what is wrong with today's GOP: he's an extremist on both social issues and taxation and puts the interests of special interests ahead of average Americans. Of course, Rigell looks down right sane compared to Ken "Kookinelli" Cuccinelli who will be the GOP nominee for Governor of Virginia.