Saturday (i.e., yesterday) was June 1st and the start of the 2013 hurricane season - which is predicted to be a much more active season than normal. For those of us living in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia which is ranked second after New Orleans in terms of flood risk, it is always a time of mixed feelings. One welcomes the advent of summer yet dreads what the reason may portend. With the Congressional Republicans opposing any serious discussion of climate change and rising sea levels and sequestration driven budget cuts for NOAA and other governmental departments that track hurricanes, one is not left with a "warm and fuzzy feeling." Our home has flooded in past storms and we have taken measures to (i) waterproof the first floor, (ii) installed a whole house generator, and (iii) installed industrial grade sump pumps to deal with any future flood wares. Unfortunately, most homeowners do not have the financial resources to make such costly improvements. A piece in Think Progress looks at how these combined factors could make the 2013 hurricane season particularly dangerous. Here are story excerpts:
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Saturday and despite warnings of an above-average season and increasingly intense storms driven by climate change, key agencies are facing mandatory cuts that threaten their ability to prepare and protect at-risk communities.
In releasing its annual hurricane season outlook last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an “active or extremely active” season, with 13 to 20 named storms — 7 to 11 of which could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes.
These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
In addition, climate change is fueling more intense and destructive storms. As Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, explains, “Climate change is causing a greater number of intense storms. The total number of storms has remained constant, but the proportion of high-intensity events has gone steadily upward in most parts of the world. Scientific models and real-world observations both suggest that the frequency of intense storms is going up.”
As climate change warms the oceans, water evaporates faster — driving stronger winds, more rain, and more powerful hurricanes. And as sea levels rise, the storm surges from hurricanes will be more destructive, posing a serious threat to coastal communities.
As coastal communities are increasingly vulnerable to more severe storms, across-the-board cuts mandated by the sequester could undermine the ability of federal agencies to keep communities informed and prepared for severe weather.
The National Weather Service, already cash-strapped and under scrutiny for sub-par computer modeling, will be grappling with a hiring freeze and mandatory furloughs as it heads into a potentially daunting hurricane season. The NWS office in Tallahassee, which typically has 18 meteorologists on staff, is down to 14 due to the cuts.
Though officials say they can maintain adequate staffing to provide critical services, such as forecasting at the National Hurricane Center in Miami and sending aircraft known as Hurricane Hunters into storms to measure speed and pressure, the staff and crews will be forced to take turns being furloughed.
With resources and personnel already stretched thin, the prospect of multiple major storms becomes even more daunting. “The biggest concern would be if we have a very active hurricane season and we have back-to-back storms or we have multiple storms hitting the state, they would simply not have the manpower necessary to ensure they have the appropriate coverage in all their field offices to provide us with the most accurate and timely forecast,” said Bryan Koon, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management.
As Sandy demonstrated, the ‘new normal’ of climate change-driven storms mandates a new level of preparedness. Instead, agencies responsible for predicting storms and protecting communities in harm’s way are being forced to grapple with significant cuts on the eve of what’s predicted to be a serious hurricane season.
Given the vulnerability of Southeastern Virginia to hurricane damage one would think that the Virgina GOP would be pushing for meaningful preparedness, Instead, the Virginia GOP refuses to even admit that global warming and climate change is even occurring.
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