NOAA: 45 Percent Chance of Above-Normal Hurricane Activity.

While the Trump/Pence regime continues to deny that climate change is real and that weather patterns are changing as a result, on Wednesday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ("NOAA") announced that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. More named storms and stronger storms are part of the prediction.  For those of us living on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, this is not welcomed news. Here in Hampton Roads where the population has surged, no major hurricane has hit in decades and evacuation routes - Interstate 64, Route 58, and Route 460 - are limited and traffic gridlock virtually guaranteed.  With large industrial sump pumps, waterproofing of the entire first floor, and a natural gas powered whole house generator, our home is more prepared than most, but one would truly rather not put such preparedness to a test. The Washington Post looks at NOAA's updated forecast:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Wednesday morning that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. It now estimates a 45 percent chance of an above-average season and a 20 percent chance of the season being below average — an impressive upward jump from its initial predictions in May.

“We are now entering the peak months of August through October,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster. “Historically, 95 percent of hurricanes, and most major hurricanes, occur during this time frame. That’s why we do an update to the outlook. An above-normal season has the highest chance of occurring.”

NOAA is now predicting between 10 and 17 named storms, five to nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. . . . . More important, the revised outlook is calling for two to four major hurricanes, referring to storms that achieve Category 3 status — or greater.

“In addition, the storms we end up getting could be longer-lived and stronger than we had forecast back in May,” said Bell, who referred to the early demise of an El Niño pattern that is typically hostile to hurricanes. “Winds now are forecast to be much more hospitable” to hurricanes.

Bell emphasized that it’s impossible to predict this far ahead whether these storms will hit land. “That comes down to local weather patterns at the time the storm’s approaching,” he said. That can’t be done before a storm has developed. “We just can’t make seasonal landfall predictions.”

The season may seem to be off to a slow start, but in reality that’s normal. Strong hurricanes rarely form before mid- to late August. . . . “But the pattern switches in August. We start getting storms from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. It’s a completely different formation mechanism.” And those are the storms that ride all the way across the Atlantic, gathering strength and, on occasion, metastasizing into monsters.

Bell emphasized the need for early preparedness, suggesting that residents along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard take advantage of the next few quiet weeks now before a storm develops.  “This applies to both coastal and inland residents,” he said. “It’s not only about the numbers. It only takes one storm.”

Bell says that we’ve been in the midst of a more active period of hurricane activity since 1995. . . . The past few years have experienced a spike in hurricane activity. Included was Hurricane Michael in October, the first Category 5 U.S. landfall since Andrew in 1992. Florence dropped nearly three feet of rain in North Carolina, coming on the heels of a 2017 season that featured Harvey, Irma and Maria. Bell warns this year could be another memorable one.

The image above is an unsettling model of a hurricane with a 13 foot storm surge.   People need to take the risk seriously.

McAuliffe: Virginia Not Prepared for a Hampton Roads Evacuation

On June 1st we again enter into hurricane season.  Like so much else that relates to environmental issues, Virginia is not ready for an evacuation of Hampton Roads should a major storm hit the area.  Thankfully, Governor McAullife is recognizing this reality.  As any afternoon commuter trying to traverse the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel (where morons behind the wheel slow down to 20 mph rather than maintain the posted speed) or seeking to traverse the bottleneck in northern Newport News where Interstate 64 drops to four lanes from eight lanes can attest there is simply no way in Hell a major evacuation could be accommodated.  Making maters worse is the Virginia GOP's refusal to even admit that climate change is occurring and that higher levels of preparedness are needed.  A piece in the Daily Press looks at McAuliffe's common sense recognition of the problem and the potential for catastrophe.  Here are excerpts:

Gov. Terry McAuliffe has asked two cabinet secretaries to head a new look at emergency evacuation plans for Hampton Roads after an exercise two weeks ago showed that "we could not evacuate if we had a major catastrophe," he said.

The difficulty of a hurricane or other emergency evacuation in the area is well known, given the constricting geography. The state's current hurricane plan — available online and dated May 2013 — says an evacuation would have to account for as many as 900,000 people in 400,000 cars in the area.  It would effect as many as 1.2 million people up and down the Virginia coast if a hurricane came during peak tourist season, the plan states.

But a "tabletop exercise" held earlier this month in Richmond, attended by McAuliffe and his cabinet, as well as emergency and law enforcement officials, made it "clear and evident we can't get folks out of the Hampton Roads region," McAuliffe said.

The state's hurricane plan lists nine evacuation routes for the area: I-64, I-264, I-664, Route 10, Route 13, Route 17, Route 58, Route 60 and U.S. 460.

There are plans to build a new U.S. 460, but McAuliffe suspended the project earlier this year after it became apparent the state had spent close to $300 million on the road with no guarantee that the proposed route would get a required permit from the Army Corps of Engineers.

McAuliffe and Layne have both said they support the concept behind the 460 project, which would provide a new evacuation route as well as a new truck route for port traffic. The road may take another route than the southern path already planned, though, and that would rachet up the costs if previous design and testing work is thrown away.

McAuliffe reiterated his general support for the project's concept Thursday, and for other area road improvements. The Virginia Department of Transportation already plans to widen parts of I-64.  "Clearly ... we need some capacity to get folks out," McAuliffe said.

Even though our home has flooded in past storms, the reality is that in any storm pushing less than a 12 foot storm surge, we'd be safer remaining in our home (we park the cars on the 2nd floors of downtown parking garages) and relying on the whole house generator and commercial sump pumps to is contend with the water as opposed to going through a major storm stuck in gridlock on an impassable Interstate.   Many residents are in even lower lying areas than we are and are not as prepared as we are now after the 2009 Nor'Ida Storm that saw tide levels just 3.24 inches under the all-time record high level at the Norfolk Naval Base.

Our home during the 2009 Nor'Ida Storm