Threat of Rising Sea Levels Could Be three Times Worse

Street scene as Hurricane Irma hits the Miami area Sept. 10, 2017.

Living in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia - like many areas on the East and Gulf coasts - where tidal water is everywhere, causes most residents (other than perhaps Trump supporters on slowly drowning Tangier Island) to grasp that climate change and the attendant sea level rise is a real threat to the region's way of live, not to mention property values.  Meanwhile, the Trump/Pence regime continues to roll back regulations aimed at slowing climate change - as well as clean air and clean water protections - to the cheers of much of the Republican Party.  As new studies reveal, while the GOP and its ignorance embracing party base deny that climate change is real, the problems facing mankind are likely far worse than previously estimated.  Here are highlights from a piece in the Washington Post:

Rising seas will be much worse and more expensive to deal with than previously thought, new research finds, not because of faster changes in sea levels but because of an increase in estimates of the number of people living on low ground.

The upshot of the study is that 110 million people worldwide live below the high-tide level — including many partly protected by sea walls or other infrastructure, as in New Orleans. Even under a scenario of very modest climate change, that number will rise to 150 million in 2050 and 190 million by 2100.

If climate change and sea level rise follow a worse path, as many as 340 million people living below the high-tide level could be in peril, to say nothing of how many could be affected by floods and extreme events.

Such figures are three times — or more — higher than earlier estimates.

The reason for the big change is that prior research has relied on data about coastal elevations that comes from radar measurements from the 2000 space shuttle Endeavor mission. But that data set has problems. The instrument detected the height not only of the coastal land surface but anything else that was on it, such as houses and trees. This introduced errors in land-elevation estimates averaging about 6½ feet globally, the new study says.

The new study uses the more accurate U.S. measurements as a guide, training an algorithm to apply similar adjustments to the global data set from the space shuttle. This is where the much higher numbers for exposed populations come from, with the biggest changes in exposure coming for countries in Asia. . . . “We are talking about hundreds of millions of people who will be directly exposed.”

The changes are certainly very large. The study estimates that 110 million people live below the current high-tide level vs. an estimated 28 million for the older data set. About 250 million people would fall below the level of the worst yearly flood, the study says, up from the previous estimate of 65 million.

If key instabilities kick in in Antarctica, 480 million people would be exposed to an annual flood in 2100.

The findings are worst for Asia, notably in China, Bangladesh and India. In the worst-case scenario, 87 million, 50 million and 38 million people in these countries, respectively, would fall below the high-tide level in 2100.

The situation is, if anything, more ominous than these figures suggest, according to the World Bank’s Hallegatte. That’s because in addition to high-tide and annual worst-case flood events, there are major floods from hurricanes and other storms and disasters to consider, even if they do not occur every year. The impact of these severe events will be worsened and affect larger populations as seas continue to rise.

“Most dikes and protection systems have been built for the sea level of 50 years ago or more, and will be increasingly ill-designed to protect people against floods, leading to rapidly increasing coastal flood losses in the absence of large upgrades,” Hallegatte said. “Upgrading those systems will be expensive but is unavoidable if one wants to avoid unacceptable economic losses in large cities.”

“This new study suggests that a lot of the assessments published on climate change risks are underestimated and would need to be revised,” Hallegatte said.

How does one act to make a difference?  The first step is voting a straight Democrat ticket here in Virginia on November 5, 2019.   Virginia can send a shock wave through the GOP - and perhaps be a precursor to 2020 - by putting Virginia Republicans in minority status across the board. 

Hurricanes Are Getting Worse

As Hurricane Dorian continues its slow move up the east coast, nerves are fraying from Florida northward into the Hampton Roads area.  WAVY TV is reporting as follows this morning:

Tuesday night, the Commander of the U.S. 2nd Fleet said U.S. Navy ships in the Hampton Roads area will begin to leave on Wednesday under a “Sortie Condition Alpha.” “Based on the current track of the storm, we made the decision to begin to sortie our Hampton Roads-based ships and aircraft tomorrow,” said Vice Adm. Andrew Lewis, Commander, U.S. 2nd Fleet. “This allows time for our assets to transit safely out of the path of the storm.”

As long time residents know, this is never an encouraging sign, especially with military leaders concerned about winds in excess of 50 knots.  The bigger issue, however, is that hurricanes are getting stronger and more intense.  Why?  Climate change, a term members of the Republican Party resists even uttering.  A column in the New York Times makes the case that it is insanity to talk about hurricanes without acknowledging what climate changes is doing to the intensity of storms.  Here are column excerpts:

The frequency of severe hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean has roughly doubled over the last two decades, and climate change appears to be the reason. Yet much of the conversation about Hurricane Dorian — including most media coverage — ignores climate change.

That’s a mistake. It’s akin to talking about lung cancer and being afraid to mention smoking, or talking about traffic deaths and being afraid to talk about drunken driving.
Climate change, likewise, doesn’t cause any one hurricane on its own, but it’s central to the story of the storms that are increasingly battering the Atlantic. Why are we pretending otherwise?

For more: I find the National Climate Assessment reports — cautious documents, written by a federal panel of scientists — to be helpful in understanding the role that climate change does (and doesn’t) play in influencing the weather. Those reports explain that the warming of the planet does not appear to be increasing the total number of hurricanes. But it does seem to be making those storms stronger and causing them to produce much more rain.

Warmer air and seawater cause storms “to rapidly reach and maintain very high intensity,” the scientists have written. Over the last few years, hurricane activity has been “anomalous and, in one case, unprecedented.”

Dorian became a Category 4 hurricane on Friday, before reaching Category 5 — the most severe designation — over the weekend and then falling back to Category 4 on Monday. Both Categories 4 and 5 qualify a hurricane as severe, and Dorian is the first Atlantic storm to reach that status this year. The heart of hurricane season often lasts from August to October.

From the 1960s through the 1990s, a typical year had only one severe hurricane. In this century, the average number has roughly doubled, . . . . And because global warming is intensifying, scientists expect the number of extreme storms to continue rising.

It's impossible to set responsible policies if one refuses to admit the reality of what is happening.  Yet the GOP continues to refuse to accept scientific fact. 

NOAA: 45 Percent Chance of Above-Normal Hurricane Activity.

While the Trump/Pence regime continues to deny that climate change is real and that weather patterns are changing as a result, on Wednesday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ("NOAA") announced that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. More named storms and stronger storms are part of the prediction.  For those of us living on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, this is not welcomed news. Here in Hampton Roads where the population has surged, no major hurricane has hit in decades and evacuation routes - Interstate 64, Route 58, and Route 460 - are limited and traffic gridlock virtually guaranteed.  With large industrial sump pumps, waterproofing of the entire first floor, and a natural gas powered whole house generator, our home is more prepared than most, but one would truly rather not put such preparedness to a test. The Washington Post looks at NOAA's updated forecast:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Wednesday morning that it had increased its predicted odds of an above-average hurricane season. It now estimates a 45 percent chance of an above-average season and a 20 percent chance of the season being below average — an impressive upward jump from its initial predictions in May.

“We are now entering the peak months of August through October,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster. “Historically, 95 percent of hurricanes, and most major hurricanes, occur during this time frame. That’s why we do an update to the outlook. An above-normal season has the highest chance of occurring.”

NOAA is now predicting between 10 and 17 named storms, five to nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. . . . . More important, the revised outlook is calling for two to four major hurricanes, referring to storms that achieve Category 3 status — or greater.

“In addition, the storms we end up getting could be longer-lived and stronger than we had forecast back in May,” said Bell, who referred to the early demise of an El Niño pattern that is typically hostile to hurricanes. “Winds now are forecast to be much more hospitable” to hurricanes.

Bell emphasized that it’s impossible to predict this far ahead whether these storms will hit land. “That comes down to local weather patterns at the time the storm’s approaching,” he said. That can’t be done before a storm has developed. “We just can’t make seasonal landfall predictions.”

The season may seem to be off to a slow start, but in reality that’s normal. Strong hurricanes rarely form before mid- to late August. . . . “But the pattern switches in August. We start getting storms from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. It’s a completely different formation mechanism.” And those are the storms that ride all the way across the Atlantic, gathering strength and, on occasion, metastasizing into monsters.

Bell emphasized the need for early preparedness, suggesting that residents along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard take advantage of the next few quiet weeks now before a storm develops.  “This applies to both coastal and inland residents,” he said. “It’s not only about the numbers. It only takes one storm.”

Bell says that we’ve been in the midst of a more active period of hurricane activity since 1995. . . . The past few years have experienced a spike in hurricane activity. Included was Hurricane Michael in October, the first Category 5 U.S. landfall since Andrew in 1992. Florence dropped nearly three feet of rain in North Carolina, coming on the heels of a 2017 season that featured Harvey, Irma and Maria. Bell warns this year could be another memorable one.

The image above is an unsettling model of a hurricane with a 13 foot storm surge.   People need to take the risk seriously.

Hampton Roads Continues to Fail the LGBT Equality Test

While the administration of Virginia Governor, Ralph Northam has been pressing an "all welcome" campaign and has sought to see statewide LGBT non-discrimination protections enacted - the effort died in 2018 when the legislation was killed by a small cabal of Republicans (including John Cosgrove of Chesapeake - the least LGBT friendly city in the region) - the local cities in Hampton Roads continue to score poorly on the Human Rights Campaign's yearly municipal equality index.  Every area city scored well below the national average.  The reality is that that to compete on a national and global level for the growing, progressive businesses of the future, much needs to be done if Hampton Roads is to truly be competitive.  Between the region's lack of a decent mass transit system and unwelcoming climate, it's little surprise that Amazon chose Northern Virginia - whose cities score more than 30 points higher - over Virginia Beach for its new headquarters.   While progressive compared to the reactionary backwaters of Southwest Virginia, Hampton Roads will never achieve the economic and social prominence it aspires to unless and until its cities (i) work cooperatively, and (ii) put in place laws and policies that bar discrimination.  A piece in the Virginian Pilot looks at the disheartening Equality Index scores:

How LGBTQ friendly is Hampton Roads? Not very, according to a recent report from a national nonprofit civil rights organization.

Of the seven cities that make up the region, five – Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk and Virginia Beach – were included in the Human Rights Campaign's yearly municipal equality index. And all ranked below the national average.

More than 500 municipalities nationwide were scored across five categories assessing how inclusive their laws, policies and services are of people who live and work there.
According to the study, 78 cities received a perfect score – including Birmingham, Ala.; Tucson, Ariz.; and Los Angeles – and 25 percent scored higher than an 83. About 25 percent scored a 36 or lower, and 15 scored a zero.

Cities could earn up to 30 points for their nondiscrimination laws – whether discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity is prohibited. A total of 28 points could be earned for the municipality as an employer of people and whether they offer equivalent benefits and protections, and for diversity in their workplaces.

Up to 12 points could be earned for municipal services that ensure residents are included in city-offered services and programs. Another 22 points could be earned for law enforcement, including how hate crimes were reported and the police department’s efforts toward engaging with the LGBTQ community.

Cities could earn up to 8 points for their commitment to pursuing equality.

On average, cities across the country scored 58 points or higher, according to the 2018 report. But across the region, scores were much lower, ranging from 29 to 50.

What Hampton Roads cities lack most, according to the report, is legislation geared toward protecting residents from discrimination in the workplace, housing and public services.

[T]he omission of gender identity and sexual orientation in anti-discrimination laws make residents vulnerable daily.  Transgender residents are the most at-risk community, she said. And if municipalities want to protect all residents, Walls-Beegle said comprehensive LGBTQ protections and public accommodation laws are needed.

As an employer of LGBTQ people, Walls-Beegle said attracting talent from out-of-state is difficult.  "Trying to get people to come work in a growing LGBTQ community – they tell me no because Virginia has no legal protections," she said. 

Of the 11 Virginia cities included in the report, only one – Roanoke, which earned 12 points – scored lower than cities in southeastern Virginia.  Charlottesville earned 75 points and Alexandria tallied 82. Arlington County boasted 92 points.

The highest state scorer was the capital, Richmond, with 94 points. The city recently established a human rights commission and passed legislation that bars discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity, Richmond TV news station WTVR reported last month.

Last month, Virginia Beach City Council included an expansion of Human Rights Act in its legislative packet, which requests the General Assembly add sexual orientation and gender identity to the act's anti-discrimination language.

While Virginia may be transitioning to being a "blue state," it still lags behind progressive states on many front.  I find the situation particularly upsetting since my son (who is straight) refuses to move back to Virginia from Washington State since he sees Virginia as backward and bigoted. Sadly, his perception is anything but unique.  I have received calls from a number of LGBT individuals who have received job offers in Virginia and who want to know the state of Virginia's non-discrimination laws.  Many turn down the job offers when they learn the would be losing the non-discrimination protections they enjoy in their current home state. 

Waterfront Home Values Fall Because of Sea Level Rise, Flooding

November 6, 2018, is fast approaching and voters have the choice between (i) candidates of a political party that denies that climate change is occurring and that is tearing down environmental regulations that seek to slow the climate change process, and (ii) candidates of the opposing party that see climate change among the most pressing problem facing the federal government.  While sadly a number of local "friends" are falling for the racist, xenophobic message of the climate change deniers, those with waterfront properties might want to rethink who they will vote for on election day.  In Hampton Roads the value of waterfront properties is falling or, at best appreciating far more slowly than the values of properties on high ground away from the water.  The phenomenon not only hits homeowners in the pocket books as their typically biggest investment is harmed, but it also erodes city tax bases.  In short, everyone loses in one form or another -  all so Republicans can pander to an ignorance embracing party base.  A piece in the Virginian Pilot looks at the problem which is not confined to Southside cities.   Here are excerpts:

Waterfront homes used to be the safest investment in real estate, but rising tides have turned a sure thing into a potential liability.

After a review of property value data and a litany of studies, The Virginian-Pilot has found mounting evidence that real estate values across Hampton Roads are being driven down as a result of recurrent flooding and sea level rise.

One couple in Norfolk has had their waterfront house, once valued at more than a million dollars, on the market for two years. They’ve dropped the price to less than $800,000 and are still waiting for a buyer.

And it’s not just seven-figure waterfront homes in Norfolk and Virginia Beach taking the hit. Values of seemingly safe houses several blocks from the water are hurting as well.

Several recent studies have shown that impacts from flooding – from water in the basement to inundated streets – already have hamstrung property prices and cost Hampton Roads homeowners hundreds of millions of dollars in lost or unrealized values.  Homeowners might be surprised by these staggering numbers – in many places where research shows flooding is hurting home prices, city assessments show those values rising. They’re just not rising as fast as they could be.

“Part of the idea of getting these numbers out there is that people may not know they’ve lost value, because the actual value may still be going up,” said Jeremy Porter, a Columbia University professor who worked on the recent study with the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit that pushes for solutions to sea level rise by presenting data.

[R]eal estate agents to academics to homeowners agree that recurring flooding and rising seas are driving down the value of what were once considered desirable investments.

A group from First Street and academics from Columbia University developed Flood iQ, a website that allows people to see how the values of waterfront homes have fared since 2006 when compared to similarly valued homes that don’t deal with flooding.

The Washington Post recently highlighted Flood iQ and two other academic studies that came to the same conclusion: Coastal property values aren’t keeping pace. The First Street group studied the values of homes from Virginia to Florida dating back to 2006 and found they’re worth $7.4 billion less than they would be otherwise.

Three-quarters of that loss was due not to flooding homes, but flooding streets, said Steven McAlpine of First Street Foundation.

Our home is on what was once the premier street in Hampton.  After seeing the value drop during the real estate meltdown of a decade ago, the value has stabilized but has not appreciated as one might expect.  Why?  We are located on a tidal creek with 4.6 acres of creek and marsh - the setting is gorgeous but the threat of flooding only too real.

CCV Racing - An Escape from Politics

Waiting for wind and the start.

Sometimes I feel I suffer from an overload of politics and stress in general.  Other than surfing, which I sadly have not done regularly in several years after having a 70 month period of never missing a month surfing, I find sailing a great stress reliever.  I pursue this endeavor through racing at the Hampton Yacht Club where I have been a member since 2012. Today, I raced in the CCV Fall Racing series on a boat owned by a friend with whom I have raced before on a number of occasions. We took second (2nd) place overall and had a wonderful time.  As with surfing, once a race is underway, all else fades away and your focus becomes, the boat, the wind, and the competition.  The camaraderie is also wonderful and the connection with nature is unique (something power boating cannot offer in my view).   Above and below are photos from today which started off slow until the wind picked up but turned into a great day.

The Laser 28 that I crewed on today (and a number of other times).

Some of the 18+ boats competing today.

A view of Hampton Yacht Club - the husband and I were the first publicly recognized gay couple members.

One of our competitors motoring to the start.

Florence - A Dark Cloud Over Our European Vacation

Our first full day in London was fun and blessed with gorgeous weather.  We visited Harrod's and then toured Kensington Palace and Gardens and then did a bit of shopping.  Last evening we had an amazing dinner at a nearby Spanish restaurant called El Pirata which I highly recommend Today, we are headed to Windsor Castle for much of the day traveling by train from Paddington Station.  Through it all, we have been checking NOAA updates on hurricane Florence's projected path.  Our friend, Governor Ralph Northam has order mandatory evacuations for areas in Flood Zone A in Hampton Roads - this includes our home and more than a third of our neighborhood.  The salon building we own is in Flood Zone C and the house in Norfolk is borderline Zone B/C.  

In terms of preparing our home for the possible onslaught of Florence, Friends have moved our cars to the second floor of the downtown Hampton parking garage, taken up all of the oriental rugs on the first floor and moved the outdoor wicker furniture and hanging plants, etc. into the garage - it may flood, but it won't be able to blow around. Hopefully the generator powered sump pumps can keep up with any water that seeps into the house (the garage pump will be the biggest question - fortunately the spare refrigerator is up on cinder blocks).  It is maddening being so far away and not being able to do anything.

In terms of what to expect, one local weather report for a local TV channel Facebook posted the following:

A Hurricane Florence update: Once again, no good news...only bad. The storm is rapidly strengthening and is now a category four hurricane. ALL models paint this getting bigger in the next 24 hours. It will approach the coast Thursday evening and slow down to a crawl. Nobody knows if it will be a category three, four, or five storm when it makes landfall. There are three possibilities with this storm.

1. It comes ashore near Myrtle Beach and goes inland very slowly. Utter destruction around where the eye comes ashore. Outer Banks spared and Hampton Roads spared. Inland SC and NC devastated with days of torrential rains.

2. It comes ashore near Wilmington or Jacksonville NC. Horrible destruction from high winds and 15-20 foot storm surge near the eye landfall location. Outer Banks hit with 5-8 foot storm surge and winds strong enough to knock down trees but not destroy or damage too many buildings. Hampton Roads would experience similar conditions to Isabel a decade ago with flooding and many power outages and lots of rainfall flooding but otherwise spared the worst. Inland NC and VA including the mountains would experience massive flooding that could kill dozens or hundreds depending on where the worst rainfall sets up. It could last for three or four days in these inland areas because the storm stalls out.

3. It hovers off the Cape Hatteras seashore of NC for 24-48 hours before slowly moving west. If the eye grazes the coast and sits for a prolonged period of time as a category four or five, it would completely destroy the southern part of the Outer Banks including Rodanthe and Hatteras. Anybody staying would most likely lose their lives. Nags Head and points north would have destruction that has not been seen in over 100 years. The big cities in Hampton Roads would experience the worst hurricane in 150 years leading to many fatalities and weeks or months with no power. Once the storm moves inland, the catastrophic flooding would then occur in the mountainous areas.

There is still a glimmer of hope that the storm stalls just far enough off the coast to not reek destruction and then several days later, slowly moves out to sea. The chance of this is under 5%.

For obvious reasons, we are hoping for option 1 which would harm the smallest number of people and spare Hampton Roads and its 1.7 million residents. Here are two photos from yesterday.

Hurricane Florence Threatens East Coast

One of the worries of traveling in September when one lives on the Southeast coast of the USA is that a hurricane could pop up and threaten your home while you are away and unable to prepare for the storm.  That possible nightmare is becoming a reality as Florence menaces the East Coast with little chance of swerving out to sea.   The husband and I are left hoping the disaster strikes somewhere else and spares Hampton Roads form serious damage.  Our number on concern is storm surge since we live on a tidal creek just across the street from Hampton Roads harbor.  Friends have already moved our cars to higher ground and, if the prognosis is bad, roll up the oriental rugs on the first floor and move them to the second floor and also remove the covers for the industrial grade sump pumps we installed in 2012 in strategic locations in the house.   With a natural gas fueled whole house generator also installed in 2012, the hope is that the pumps can avoid standing water in the first floor which has been made water resistant up to three feet from the marble floors.  The first floor water resistance work was done in 2009 after the Nor'Ida storm slammed Hampton Roads.  Below is the September 9, 2018, 11:00 pm update from the hurricane center at NOAA.

As we begin our visit to London in earnest, the shadow of Florence will hang over us. On today's agenda is Kensington Place and an exhibition of Princess Dianna's clothing. 

The GOP Is Incapable of Governing

If the federal government shuts down after today, the fault will lie directly on congressional Republicans who (i) cannot even agree among themselves, and (ii) continue to push proposals that contain no compromise.  Yes, disingenuous liars like Paul Ryan - perhaps the most dishonest man in Washington after Der Trumpenführer himself - and Mitch McConnell will try to blame Democrats, but I suspect that the public other than brain dead Fox News viewers will see through the lies.  The bottom line is the GOP controls both houses of Congress and the White House.  The buck stops with them. And yes, Trump bears much blame as well.  One can only hope that a majority of voters will take it upon themselves to fix the situation by handing control of Congress back to Democrats in November. A piece in the Washington Post looks at the GOP's inability to govern and even pass a basic budget. Here are excerpts:

The federal government late Thursday faced increasing odds of a partial shutdown, the culmination of a long period of budget warfare that has now imperiled what most lawmakers agree is the most basic task of governance.

 

[T]he impasse raised deeper questions about the GOP’s capacity — one year into the Trump administration — to govern. Never before has the government experienced a furlough of federal employees when a single party controls both the White House and Congress, but that’s what will happen after midnight Friday if a spending bill fails to pass Congress.

 

While Democrats criticized Republicans for failing to do what was necessary to win their support to keep the government open — a responsibility that has historically fallen to the party in charge — even some Republicans acknowledged there had been a profound breakdown in how Washington is run.

 

The 30-day extension, passed by the House but expected to be defeated in the Senate, would have been the fifth temporary funding measure in the past year, a period during which Republicans had failed to put in place a long-term budget plan.

 

Unlike almost any president or administration before him, Trump has fanned the flames of a shutdown.

Trump has repeatedly mused about the prospects of halting federal operations, saying at one point that the government needed a “good shutdown” to teach Democrats a lesson. The budget he proposed last year was so sparse on key details that the Congressional Budget Office said it could not analyze its impact on revenue.

His aides have not hashed out a broader spending agreement with GOP leaders or Democrats, and the White House and GOP leaders have remained split on how much money to appropriate for the military.

Senate Republicans spent the second half of 2017 immersed in tax negotiations, spending little time focused on how to pay the government’s bills this year.

The Senate Appropriations Committee, which votes on spending bills, has held just one full committee hearing since July. . . . The House Budget Committee, meanwhile, has had three different chairmen in 14 months.

Senate Republicans aren’t expected to vote on a budget resolution at all this year, a move that would have been unthinkable in recent years, as they said it was a cornerstone of good governing.

These continuing resolutions have made leaders from both parties restless and increasingly defiant heading into the November midterm elections, when Democrats see an opportunity to wrest control of one or both chambers of Congress.

Republicans have said that even though they control the White House and Congress, Senate rules make it impossible for them to pass spending bills without bipartisan support.

But there are no signs that Republicans are united behind their own budget proposals. . . . several Republicans have said they won’t support the spending bill. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is battling cancer and isn’t expected to be back in time for a vote on Friday, and they need 60 votes to proceed.

As congressional leaders searched for a solution Thursday, Trump upended the process by renewing his demand that the U.S. taxpayer fund construction of a border wall with Mexico and saying he opposed reauthorizing a health care program for children as part of the short-term spending bill — a stance that he later reversed.

The president’s rapidly fluctuating positions have frustrated Republicans who are working to blame the budget problems on Senate Democrats. Even though Democrats have their own divisions, especially between those from conservative states and other, more liberal members, they appear to be uniting because of Trump’s changing demands.

Those Twitter posts emboldened Democrats and infuriated a number of Republicans who were hoping to patch together enough votes to avert a shutdown.

Democrats, who also have major differences on spending bills, have used the GOP disunity to unite. They have insisted that any spending bill must take action to prevent the deportation of hundreds of thousands of immigrants who came to the U.S. as children.

Trump had appeared open to that idea early last week, but his approach changed.  . . . . “The President’s repeated statements urging a government shutdown are beneath the office and have heightened the budgetary dysfunction,” Sens. Mark R. Warner and Tim Kaine, Virginia Democrats, said in a joint statement. Virginia would be hit particularly hard by a government shutdown, in part because of the large number of federal employees who live there.

Today’s budget dysfunction has many of its roots in the election of a tide of conservative tea party members in 2010. . . . . But the Republican Party never fully united during the Obama administration, with some members pushing for dramatic spending changes and others wary of slashing benefits for the elderly and the poor.

In 2017, Republicans took control of the White House and both chambers of Congress and they no longer had Obama to blame for budget disagreements.

After one year of complete GOP control in Washington, the government’s budget picture has only worsened. It now has roughly $21 trillion in debt. The U.S. government spent $666 billion more than it brought in through revenue last year, and that figure is expected to grow this year because of the deep tax cuts that went into effect Jan. 1.

Republicans are now pursuing a deal that could add close to $250 billion in new spending for military and nondefense programs. In addition, lawmakers have looked at adding another $80 billion in spending to address hurricanes, wildfires and other natural disasters that occurred in 2017.

But these negotiations have stalled repeatedly and are one reason that Congress kept passing short-term spending bills until lawmakers this week showed signs they had enough.

It goes without saying that a federal government shut down will hit Hampton Roads particularly hard given its large number of federal workers - things will be only worse in Northern Virginia.  One can only hope that the wake up to the fact that the only solution is voting Republicans like Scott Taylor and Rob Wittman out of office in November.  

"Blizzard Warning" - Expect A Hampton Roads Freak Out

Those from Upstate New York where I was born will no doubt find amusement in this forecast which would at best draw a yawn, but the Hampton Roads area of Virginia does NOT deal well with snow. Between a lack of snow removal equipment and drivers that are lacking even in good road conditions, it is a recipe for craziness.  Here's what WVEC-TV is forecasting:

The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warningfor parts of Hampton Roads and the Outer Banks, beginning tonight at 7 p.m. and lasting until 1 p.m. Thursday.Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very dangerous to impossible, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches.

The Blizzard Warning is in place for Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Hampton, and Northampton in Virginia, and Camden and Currituck counties in North Carolina.

Winter Storm Watch - Not a Nice Return from Florida!

It is hard enough being back in the Hampton Roads region of Virginia without being greeted by the above forecast.  Needless to say, I hope the forecast proves wrong.   More posts on the Fort Lauderdale trip this evening. 

Early Morning Rant: "Call Me By Your Name" and Hampton Roads' Backwardness

Yesterday began the United States release of the movie "Call Me By Your Name" which has received rave reviews and Oscar buzz ever since it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier in the year.   Outlets as diverse as the New Yorker, Vanity Fair, Wall Street Journal, Variety, The Independent, New York Times, Rotten Tomatoes, etc., have all lauded the movie and its actors and directors.  All of which, of course, means it is NOT showing in Hampton Roads and cannot be found among any of the "coming soon" information" although it appears to be coming to Richmond next week.  With a strong gay romance theme, my fear is that other than the Naro Theater in Norfolk, few theaters in the region may show this movie that likes to view itself as "world class" and sophisticated - Virginia Beach perhaps laughably is trying to court Amazon for a major headquarters facility - yet has a huge Regent University/Pat Robertson display at Norfolk International Airport (which has no international flights).  Talk about telling visitors the area is not sophisticated or accepting!

The irony to me, of course is that places like Hampton Roads - Southwest Virginia even more so - need to see this movie and perhaps have their parochial eyes opened to the reality that love is love (reading the book which the movie is based on, which I have done, would be equally good).  In many ways the husband and I have a very nice life in Hampton Roads, but this is yet another occasion where I am reminded that this is not where I really would prefer to live.  There is a reason why all of our vacations are to truly progressive cities and/or foreign countries (Ft. Lauderdale in a month, Key West in March, and London and Paris next September).  

Yes, Virginia is set for another four years of progressive Democrat leadership under Ralph Northam, Mark Herring and Justin Fairfax which hopefully will improve things over all - an employment non-discrimination law protecting LGBT Virginians would be a nice start.  But socially and culturally, Virginia still has a very long way to go.  As shocking as the concept might be to Virginia Republicans who daily prostitute themselves to right wing religious extremists  best embodied by The Family Foundation, it takes more than low taxes to attract world class, progressive businesses.  Meanwhile, the husband and I will persist in doing our part to open minds in this area even though it gets exhausting at times.

"Blizzard" Warning for Hampton Roads

Readers up North and in snowy climates no doubt laugh when they see this region go crazy when we only get an inch of snow.  If the current forecast - see the image above - proves true and we receive a foot of snow, things will beyond a circus and all roads other than perhaps portions of the Interstate system will be impassible.  Last year the husband bought a snow blower for the salon parking lot - thank god for Amazon Prime - and it sat all winter without being used even once.  Maybe the purchase won't seem so crazy now.  I'm really glad that we have a whole house generator and two fireplaces with gas logs if the power goes out.  I will be keeping you updated.

Hampton Roads' Reliance on Military Spending Comes Home to Roost

Norfolk Naval Base

For many decades the Hampton Roads region has blindly relied on U.S. military spending to power the local economy.  On a larger scale, Virginia has made the same mistake, but nowhere to the extent of Hampton Roads.  Far too little effort was made to attract other businesses and to diversify the local economy and, as a result, for years there has been a brain drain of college educated young adults who often choose to go to New York, Atlanta or Washington, D.C. for not only a more vibrant economy, but also for more socially diverse and welcoming to all communities.  Now, with government and military spending cuts the proverbial chickens are coming home to roost.  A piece in the Washington Post looks at the results of such shortsightedness and until recently social conservatism.  Here are highlights:

NORFOLK — The hammerhead crane hangs over the shipyards here, a pistol-shaped steel cage that could lift 350 tons in its day. It is rusting, its power system has been disconnected, and the U.S. military has no plans to ever employ it again. . . . . The crane is obsolete, built to lift turrets onto battleships the Navy no longer deploys. But its fate embodies the economic uncertainty that has swamped one of the nation’s most military-dependent regions.

For three-quarters of a century, the Hampton Roads area rose and fell with the federal defense budget, always confident that any cutbacks would prove temporary. Under President Obama, a new reality has sunk in. Spending cuts have stalled growth in the region, pushed thousands of blue-collar workers out of good-paying jobs and forced civic leaders to contend with a once-unmentionable question: how to survive if the military spigot never opens again.

The Norfolk area has suffered disproportionately, even among defense communities, from decisions by Obama and Congress to reduce the size and composition of military budgets. Economists and union leaders say that is because Hampton Roads has been late to follow the lead of other regions, including the Washington area, that took steps over the past decades to incubate private industries and balance out their reliance on defense.

Norfolk has become a national outlier, saddled with a workforce that is less educated than many comparable communities and an economy that has depended too much, for too long, on government.

Communities across America have struggled with economic transition in recent decades . . . Many of them have followed a similar playbook. They use tax breaks and other government incentives to attract clusters of businesses in knowledge-based industries such as technology. And they woo entrepreneurial, high-skilled workers who might work at those companies — or start their own businesses.

Norfolk had not launched such an effort, in earnest, until 2012. . . . They need one now. Defense spending has fallen quickly from making up more than half of the Hampton Roads economy to less than 40 percent.

Over the past two years, nearly 4,000 manufacturing workers in the region have lost their jobs, according to the Labor Department. Layoffs from defense contractors, including 700 members of the Boilermakers union who were given pink slips less than a month before Christmas, came as the Navy reduced spending on ship building and maintenance.
The cuts have drained buying power from the local economy. Compounding the problem, there are nearly 30,000 fewer military jobs in the region today than a decade ago, and the remaining members of the military stationed here have seen their pay curbed in recent years.

Federal defense contract spending in the region was $9.4 billion in 2015, a $1.5 billion drop from the previous year — and lower than 2009 levels, even before adjusting for inflation. . . . Norfolk lost more businesses in the economic recovery than any other major city in the nation, according to census data compiled by the Economic Innovation Group.

The debate over how to transition the region’s economy is not far along. The local chamber of commerce and a nonprofit economic development are seeking to identify “clusters” of industries that could carry the region going forward and have preliminarily found a few, including biotechnology and advanced manufacturing. But their report is not finalized, and local leaders are only beginning the process of figuring out how to seed the growth of those industries.

Regional officials do not hold much hope of defense spending surging again, at least not in a way that will lift Hampton Roads. Today’s Navy is shifting focus to the Pacific Ocean, which means more action for West Coast shipyards and less here. Across its branches, the military is spending more on information technology, which benefits higher-tech regions such as the Washington area.

Compounding the problem is the backwardness of the Republican controlled General Assembly that seeks to inflict right wing Christian beliefs on all of Virginia and which will not even take climate change seriously even as it threatens some of the major military bases in Hampton Roads.  Since taking office, Democrat Governor Terry McAuliffe has been on a mission to attract new businesses and industries to Virginia and argued that Virginia must be welcoming to all.  So far that message has fallen on deaf ears with the Virginia GOP. 

Global Warming is Already Flooding America's Coasts

Click image to enlarge

click image to enlarge

UPDATED 9-6-2016:  For more images of just how much of a reality global warming and rising sea levels are for the Hampton Roads area, check out the photos at AltDaily here.  As I said before, if you care about global warming and climate change, the ONLY option on election day is to vote a straight Democrat ticket. 

Having just dodged a bullet with Tropical Storm Hermine - the photo above shows Robinson Creek close to flooding into our back yard shown in the background - many of us in Hampton Roads know and understand that global warming's impact on sea levels is real and that it is happening now.  The second photo was taken by a friend in the Ocean View section of Norfolk from her home more than an hour before high tide.  Many other areas of Norfolk and even our neighborhood flooded and as of this morning, my sister in Virginia Beach is still without power.  What's really frightening is that Hermine was not even a major storm.  Sea levels ARE rising - at the Norfolk Naval Base, the level is a foot and a half higher than less than 100 years ago.  Yet despite this, we see Republicans ranging from Donald Trump on down saying that global warming and its impacts is a "hoax."  Here in Virginia, GOP legislators will not even allow the use of the term even as the economic powerhouse of the Virginia Port Authority and numerous military bases are threatened.  A piece in the New York Times looks at the reality that is already happening while the GOP remains in denial.  Here are highlights:

NORFOLK, Va. — Huge vertical rulers are sprouting beside low spots in the streets here, so people can judge if the tidal floods that increasingly inundate their roads are too deep to drive through.

Five hundred miles down the Atlantic Coast, the only road to Tybee Island, Ga., is disappearing beneath the sea several times a year, cutting the town off from the mainland.

And another 500 miles on, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., increased tidal flooding is forcing the city to spend millions fixing battered roads and drains — and, at times, to send out giant vacuum trucks to suck saltwater off the streets.

For decades, as the global warming created by human emissions caused land ice to melt and ocean water to expand, scientists warned that the accelerating rise of the sea would eventually imperil the United States’ coastline.

Federal scientists have documented a sharp jump in this nuisance flooding — often called “sunny-day flooding” — along both the East Coast and the Gulf Coast in recent years. The sea is now so near the brim in many places that they believe the problem is likely to worsen quickly. Shifts in the Pacific Ocean mean that the West Coast, partly spared over the past two decades, may be hit hard, too.

These tidal floods are often just a foot or two deep, but they can stop traffic, swamp basements, damage cars, kill lawns and forests, and poison wells with salt. Moreover, the high seas interfere with the drainage of storm water.

In coastal regions, that compounds the damage from the increasingly heavy rains plaguing the country, like those that recently caused extensive flooding in Louisiana. Scientists say these rains are also a consequence of human greenhouse emissions.

“Once impacts become noticeable, they’re going to be upon you quickly,” said William V. Sweet, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Silver Spring, Md., who is among the leaders in research on coastal inundation. “It’s not a hundred years off — it’s now.”

[L]ocal leaders say they cannot tackle this problem alone. They are pleading with state and federal governments for guidance and help, including billions to pay for flood walls, pumps and road improvements that would buy them time.

Yet Congress has largely ignored these pleas, and has even tried to block plans by the military to head off future problems at the numerous bases imperiled by a rising sea. A Republican congressman from Colorado, Ken Buck, recently called one military proposal part of a “radical climate change agenda.”

As the problem worsens, experts are warning that national security is on the line. Naval bases, in particular, are threatened; they can hardly be moved away from the ocean, yet much of their land is at risk of disappearing within this century.

Because the land is sinking as the ocean rises, Norfolk and the metropolitan region surrounding it, known as Hampton Roads, are among the worst-hit parts of the United States. That local factor means, in essence, that the region is a few decades ahead in feeling the effects of sea-level rise, and illustrates what people along the rest of the American coast can expect.

The biggest problems involve frequent flooding of homes and roads. As the sea rises, hundreds of tidal creeks and marshes that thread through the region are bringing saltwater to people’s doorsteps.

As the national response lags, experts warn that the flooding is putting the country’s defense at risk.

Several studies have concluded that Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval base, is profoundly threatened by rising seas, as are other coastal bases. The Pentagon has managed to build floodgates and other protective measures at some facilities. But attempts by the military to develop broader climate change plans have met fierce resistance in Congress.

That was the case this summer, when an effort by the Pentagon to appoint officers to take charge of climate resilience led to a House vote prohibiting taxpayer money from being spent on the plan.

Many people in Congress, almost all of them Republicans, express doubt about climate science, with some of them promulgating conspiracy theories claiming that researchers have invented the issue to justify greater governmental control over people’s lives. So far, this ideological position has been immune to the rising evidence of harm from human-induced climate change.

Scientists had long hoped that any disintegration of the ice sheets would take thousands of years, but recent research suggests the breakup of West Antarctica could occur much faster. In the worst-case scenario, this research suggests, the rate of sea-level rise could reach a foot per decade by the 22nd century, about 10 times faster than today.

In 2013, scientists reached a consensus that three feet was the highest plausible rise by the year 2100. But now some of them are starting to say that six or seven feet may be possible. A rise that large over a span of decades would be an unparalleled national catastrophe, driving millions of people from their homes and most likely requiring the abandonment of entire cities.

Along those parts of the United States coast that are sinking at a brisk clip, including southern Louisiana and the entire Chesapeake Bay region, including Norfolk, the situation will be worse than average. On the Pacific Coast, a climate pattern that had pushed billions of gallons of water toward Asia is now ending, so that in coming decades the sea is likely to rise quickly off states like Oregon and California.

Read the entire article.  What can one do?  For starters, vote ignorance embracing Republicans out of office. For local homeowners, start water proofing your homes and make them flood resistant.  Personally, our next step will probably be to build a high berm around the perimeter of the backyard and then landscape it so that it's real purpose is camouflaged.  That, of course, will take time and money that many people simply do not have.

Water coming up the storm drain in front of the house (last October, water came half way up the driveway)