Hurricane Florence: Welcome to the New Normal

In a post last week I noted how six years ago Republican legislators in North Carolina had rejected the reality of climate change and ignored the recommendations of a non-partisan committee concerning sea level rise and future potential flooding.  The result was more construction on the coastal plain and flood plain areas.  Now, with Hurricane Florence the idiocy of such action is all too apparent.   Meanwhile, the Trump/Pence regime has pulled America out of the Paris climate accord and is actively working to destroy restrictions that would lessen carbon emissions and at least slow down elements fueling climate change.  All pure idiocy that ignores the growing dangers that past foolishness has set in motion.  A column in the Washington Post looks at the new normal and the danger of Trump/Pence policies - the irony, of course, is that North Carolina went for Trump in 2016.  Karma has already slapped the state hard across the face.  Here are column excerpts:

Hurricane Florence has drenched eastern North Carolina with more than 30 inches of rain, an all-time record for the state. Last year, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Houston and dumped more than 60 inches of rain, an all-time record for the whole country. Also last year, Hurricane Maria ravaged the island of Puerto Rico and caused, according to an independent study, nearly 3,000 deaths.

Welcome to the new normal.  Tropical cyclones are nothing new, of course. But climate scientists say that global warming should make such storms wetter, slower and more intense — which is exactly what seems to be happening. And if we fail to act, these kinds of devastating weather events will likely become even more frequent and more severe.

Climate change is a global phenomenon. Authorities in the Philippines are still trying to assess the damage and death toll from Typhoon Mangkhut, a rare Category 5-equivalent storm that struck the archipelago Saturday with sustained winds of 165 mph. Mangkhut went on to batter Hong Kong and now, as it weakens, is plowing across southern China.

Every human being on the planet has a stake in what governments do to limit and adapt to climate change, including leaders who, like President Trump, prefer to believe global warming is some kind of hoax. I doubt the citizens of Wilmington, N.C. — a lovely resort town that was turned into an island by widespread flooding from Florence — feel there is anything illusory about the hardship they’re going through.

The most ambitious attempt to quantify the link between climate and weather — a blue-chip international consortium called World Weather Attribution — has not yet made an attempt to estimate any possible effect that global warming may have had on Florence or Mangkhut. But another group of researchers, the Climate Extremes Modeling Group at the Stony Brook University School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, estimated Sept. 12 that Florence would produce 50 percent more rainfall than if human-induced global warming had not occurred.

We know from direct measurement that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by more than 40 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, when humans started burning fossil fuels on a large scale. We know from direct observation that carbon dioxide traps heat. We know from direct measurement that both atmospheric and ocean temperatures have been rising sharply. We know from direct measurement that warmer water takes up more space than cooler water, which is the main reason ocean levels are rising.

We know that warmer water is more easily evaporated, which means there is more moisture available to fuel a storm such as Florence or Harvey — and to be released by such storms as rainfall.

If humankind suddenly stopped burning fossil fuels tomorrow, we would still have to adapt to the climatic changes we have already set in motion. . . . . We will be coping with massive tropical storms, tragic coastal and riverine flooding, deadly heat waves and unprecedented wildfires for the rest of our lives.

At the very least, we should be trying to reduce carbon emissions and keep global warming to a manageable level. With the landmark Paris agreement, the nations of the world agreed to try. But Trump foolishly decided to pull the United States — the world’s second-biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, behind only China — out of the deal.

The administration has already proposed weakening restrictions on carbon emissions from automobiles and coal-fired power plants. And last week, there were reports that the administration also wants to loosen rules governing the release of methane, which traps even more heat than carbon dioxide.

Another news item from earlier this month should be instructive: A cargo ship is presently making the journey from Vladivostok, on Russia’s Pacific coast, to the German port of Bremerhaven via the Arctic Ocean, rather than taking the usual southern route through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Gibraltar. Until now, the northern route has always been impassible because it was blocked by polar ice. But because of climate change, a lot of the ice has melted.

Climate change is no longer theoretical. It is real, it is all around us, and it is going to get much worse.

Climate Change Denying NC Republicans About to Face Florence's Wrath

Like their Virginia counterparts, North Carolina Republicans have denied that climate change is occurring or that sea level rises are being fueled by climate change.  In 2012, they passed a bill that dismissed dire warnings from the Coastal Resources Commission and opened the door for more construction in vulnerable coastal areas and stymied expert efforts to plan long term for adaptation to the consequences of climate change, including more powerful and much more rain drenching hurricanes. With Hurricane Florence about to make landfall and by some predictions drop up to 40 inches of rain on parts of the state, Republican embrace of ignorance and denial will hit head on with reality.  Sadly, many lives will be at increased risk as a consequence.  A piece in Huffingtom Post looks at this likely bout with Karma.  Here are highlights:

In 2012, North Carolina legislators passed a bill that barred policymakers and developers from using up-to-date climate science to plan for rising sea levels on the state’s coast. Now Hurricane Florence threatens to cause a devastating storm surge that could put thousands of lives in danger and cost the state billions of dollars worth of damage.

The hurricane, which is expected to make landfall on Friday, is shaping up to be one of the worst storms to hit the East Coast. Residents of North Carolina’s Outer Banks and mainland coasts have already been ordered to evacuate.

“It only takes a few extra inches of water depth to be the difference between a ruined floor and no damage, or a ruined electrical system and just a ruined floor,” Strauss said. “Floods tend to be a great deal more destructive and costly than homeowners anticipate.”

Sea level rise can also affect the severity of hurricanes, said William Sweet, an oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “If you compared storm surge heights from the same storm at the same location over several decades, the surge would be higher ― assuming no change in flood defenses ― because of sea level rise,” Sweet said.  

But in North Carolina, lawmakers chose to ignore the threats. A panel of scientists on the state Coastal Resources Commission issued a dire warning in March 2010, estimating that the sea levels along the state’s coast would rise 39 inches over the next century. Conservative lawmakers and business interest groups feared the report would hurt lucrative real estate development on the state’s coast and sought to undermine it. A lobbying group committed to economic development on the coast accused the panel of “pulling data out of their hip pocket.”

[Conservative state Rep. Pat] McElraft introduced the bill in April 2011, and it passed the legislature in the summer of 2012.

Part of the bill stipulated that state and local agencies must also refer to historical linear predictions of sea level rise rather than current research, and another alarming section required that research look only at 30-year predictions rather than at a century, as the CRC report had done. Supporters of the bill saw short-term benefits in more affordable insurance, and continued opportunities for real estate development and tourism along the attractive coast. Critics saw the long-term consequences of damaged homes and businesses and vast swaths of the state being swallowed by floods.   

In North Carolina, the state’s topography and the rising sea levels have made for even more dangerous storms and floods, Strauss said. Unlike coastal communities that have deep, cliff-like dropoffs, North Carolina’s coast is flat, wide and shallow, “like a kiddie pool,” Strauss said. “When you think about storm surge, some places have higher potential than others. The same storm would produce different surges depending on the topography,” said Strauss.

The state also has a wide, shallow continental shelf compared with places like Miami, which “means there is massive potential for a storm surge,” he said. “Especially a storm like this, that’s moving straight forward,” he said. “It’s a really bad setup.”

At the same time, climate change has “supercharged” recent storms, as HuffPost’s Chris D’Angelo reported on Friday, putting Florence on track to do as much, if not more, damage than last year’s Hurricane Harvey, which devastated parts of Texas and Louisiana.

“It is fair to say that the very same factors are likely at play here, namely very warm ocean temperatures and an anomalous jet stream pattern favoring stalled weather systems,” said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University.

Florence - A Dark Cloud Over Our European Vacation

Our first full day in London was fun and blessed with gorgeous weather.  We visited Harrod's and then toured Kensington Palace and Gardens and then did a bit of shopping.  Last evening we had an amazing dinner at a nearby Spanish restaurant called El Pirata which I highly recommend Today, we are headed to Windsor Castle for much of the day traveling by train from Paddington Station.  Through it all, we have been checking NOAA updates on hurricane Florence's projected path.  Our friend, Governor Ralph Northam has order mandatory evacuations for areas in Flood Zone A in Hampton Roads - this includes our home and more than a third of our neighborhood.  The salon building we own is in Flood Zone C and the house in Norfolk is borderline Zone B/C.  

In terms of preparing our home for the possible onslaught of Florence, Friends have moved our cars to the second floor of the downtown Hampton parking garage, taken up all of the oriental rugs on the first floor and moved the outdoor wicker furniture and hanging plants, etc. into the garage - it may flood, but it won't be able to blow around. Hopefully the generator powered sump pumps can keep up with any water that seeps into the house (the garage pump will be the biggest question - fortunately the spare refrigerator is up on cinder blocks).  It is maddening being so far away and not being able to do anything.

In terms of what to expect, one local weather report for a local TV channel Facebook posted the following:

A Hurricane Florence update: Once again, no good news...only bad. The storm is rapidly strengthening and is now a category four hurricane. ALL models paint this getting bigger in the next 24 hours. It will approach the coast Thursday evening and slow down to a crawl. Nobody knows if it will be a category three, four, or five storm when it makes landfall. There are three possibilities with this storm.

1. It comes ashore near Myrtle Beach and goes inland very slowly. Utter destruction around where the eye comes ashore. Outer Banks spared and Hampton Roads spared. Inland SC and NC devastated with days of torrential rains.

2. It comes ashore near Wilmington or Jacksonville NC. Horrible destruction from high winds and 15-20 foot storm surge near the eye landfall location. Outer Banks hit with 5-8 foot storm surge and winds strong enough to knock down trees but not destroy or damage too many buildings. Hampton Roads would experience similar conditions to Isabel a decade ago with flooding and many power outages and lots of rainfall flooding but otherwise spared the worst. Inland NC and VA including the mountains would experience massive flooding that could kill dozens or hundreds depending on where the worst rainfall sets up. It could last for three or four days in these inland areas because the storm stalls out.

3. It hovers off the Cape Hatteras seashore of NC for 24-48 hours before slowly moving west. If the eye grazes the coast and sits for a prolonged period of time as a category four or five, it would completely destroy the southern part of the Outer Banks including Rodanthe and Hatteras. Anybody staying would most likely lose their lives. Nags Head and points north would have destruction that has not been seen in over 100 years. The big cities in Hampton Roads would experience the worst hurricane in 150 years leading to many fatalities and weeks or months with no power. Once the storm moves inland, the catastrophic flooding would then occur in the mountainous areas.

There is still a glimmer of hope that the storm stalls just far enough off the coast to not reek destruction and then several days later, slowly moves out to sea. The chance of this is under 5%.

For obvious reasons, we are hoping for option 1 which would harm the smallest number of people and spare Hampton Roads and its 1.7 million residents. Here are two photos from yesterday.

Hurricane Florence Threatens East Coast

One of the worries of traveling in September when one lives on the Southeast coast of the USA is that a hurricane could pop up and threaten your home while you are away and unable to prepare for the storm.  That possible nightmare is becoming a reality as Florence menaces the East Coast with little chance of swerving out to sea.   The husband and I are left hoping the disaster strikes somewhere else and spares Hampton Roads form serious damage.  Our number on concern is storm surge since we live on a tidal creek just across the street from Hampton Roads harbor.  Friends have already moved our cars to higher ground and, if the prognosis is bad, roll up the oriental rugs on the first floor and move them to the second floor and also remove the covers for the industrial grade sump pumps we installed in 2012 in strategic locations in the house.   With a natural gas fueled whole house generator also installed in 2012, the hope is that the pumps can avoid standing water in the first floor which has been made water resistant up to three feet from the marble floors.  The first floor water resistance work was done in 2009 after the Nor'Ida storm slammed Hampton Roads.  Below is the September 9, 2018, 11:00 pm update from the hurricane center at NOAA.

As we begin our visit to London in earnest, the shadow of Florence will hang over us. On today's agenda is Kensington Place and an exhibition of Princess Dianna's clothing.