Florence - A Dark Cloud Over Our European Vacation

Our first full day in London was fun and blessed with gorgeous weather.  We visited Harrod's and then toured Kensington Palace and Gardens and then did a bit of shopping.  Last evening we had an amazing dinner at a nearby Spanish restaurant called El Pirata which I highly recommend Today, we are headed to Windsor Castle for much of the day traveling by train from Paddington Station.  Through it all, we have been checking NOAA updates on hurricane Florence's projected path.  Our friend, Governor Ralph Northam has order mandatory evacuations for areas in Flood Zone A in Hampton Roads - this includes our home and more than a third of our neighborhood.  The salon building we own is in Flood Zone C and the house in Norfolk is borderline Zone B/C.  

In terms of preparing our home for the possible onslaught of Florence, Friends have moved our cars to the second floor of the downtown Hampton parking garage, taken up all of the oriental rugs on the first floor and moved the outdoor wicker furniture and hanging plants, etc. into the garage - it may flood, but it won't be able to blow around. Hopefully the generator powered sump pumps can keep up with any water that seeps into the house (the garage pump will be the biggest question - fortunately the spare refrigerator is up on cinder blocks).  It is maddening being so far away and not being able to do anything.

In terms of what to expect, one local weather report for a local TV channel Facebook posted the following:

A Hurricane Florence update: Once again, no good news...only bad. The storm is rapidly strengthening and is now a category four hurricane. ALL models paint this getting bigger in the next 24 hours. It will approach the coast Thursday evening and slow down to a crawl. Nobody knows if it will be a category three, four, or five storm when it makes landfall. There are three possibilities with this storm.

1. It comes ashore near Myrtle Beach and goes inland very slowly. Utter destruction around where the eye comes ashore. Outer Banks spared and Hampton Roads spared. Inland SC and NC devastated with days of torrential rains.

2. It comes ashore near Wilmington or Jacksonville NC. Horrible destruction from high winds and 15-20 foot storm surge near the eye landfall location. Outer Banks hit with 5-8 foot storm surge and winds strong enough to knock down trees but not destroy or damage too many buildings. Hampton Roads would experience similar conditions to Isabel a decade ago with flooding and many power outages and lots of rainfall flooding but otherwise spared the worst. Inland NC and VA including the mountains would experience massive flooding that could kill dozens or hundreds depending on where the worst rainfall sets up. It could last for three or four days in these inland areas because the storm stalls out.

3. It hovers off the Cape Hatteras seashore of NC for 24-48 hours before slowly moving west. If the eye grazes the coast and sits for a prolonged period of time as a category four or five, it would completely destroy the southern part of the Outer Banks including Rodanthe and Hatteras. Anybody staying would most likely lose their lives. Nags Head and points north would have destruction that has not been seen in over 100 years. The big cities in Hampton Roads would experience the worst hurricane in 150 years leading to many fatalities and weeks or months with no power. Once the storm moves inland, the catastrophic flooding would then occur in the mountainous areas.

There is still a glimmer of hope that the storm stalls just far enough off the coast to not reek destruction and then several days later, slowly moves out to sea. The chance of this is under 5%.

For obvious reasons, we are hoping for option 1 which would harm the smallest number of people and spare Hampton Roads and its 1.7 million residents. Here are two photos from yesterday.