Sunday, April 22, 2012

Does California Foretell the GOP's Future?

Many times I've argued that the GOP is committing long term suicide by focusing all of its efforts (other than insincere lip service) on aging and/or uneducated white Christian conservatives to the exclusion of younger voters, educated voters and minorities.  What this has resulted in in California may well foretell what will increasingly become the norm in states with large Hispanic populations and other demographic combinations that see the preferred GOP demographic move to permanent minority status.  A piece in Politico looks at the GOP's dismal situation in California.  Here are highlights:

If you want to know why no one is talking about which way California will go in the November presidential election, the answer is simple: Mitt Romney doesn’t have a prayer.  It’s not the polls that lead to that conclusion. All you have to do is look at the state’s latest voter registration statistics.  They’re really quite stunning in what they reveal about the GOP’s fade toward irrelevance in the nation’s largest state.

There used to be a time when California regularly produced talent for GOP presidential ticket. And from 1952 through 1988, the Republican nominee carried the state in every presidential election but one.  Now, it’s nearly impossible for a Republican to get elected statewide -- so California doesn’t produce anyone with enough stature for the national GOP ticket. The massive Democratic voter registration advantage helps explain why.
The GOP actually has a majority of voters in 30 of California’s 58 counties. But that number is misleading. If you look at the list of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of Democrats, they tend to be some of the more populous in the state – places like Alameda (Oakland) Los Angeles (LA), Contra Costa (Bay area), and San Mateo (Bay area) counties.

The 10 counties with the highest percentage of Republicans tend to be among the least populous counties, all of them located inland.  The data, the trendlines and the state's demographics don’t paint a pretty picture for the GOP. But more than anything else, they signal that California’s 55 electoral votes are firmly in President Obama’s pocket.

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