Are Evangelicals Now Dwindling?

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n follow up to the previous post on the vote in Ireland where I suggested American evangelicals should take heed of the potential coming backlash, one of my Google search agents found an article that suggests that the arrogant and hubris filled evangelical Christian crowd may already be in trouble although it has not yet translated into declining political clout within the GOP.  A new study suggests that  between 2003 and 2017, the percentage of evangelicals in the U.S. dropped from 21% to 13%, even as the percentage of “Nones” rose from 12% to 21%. If the results are accurate, it suggests than "Nones" and religious progressives need to do more to assert themselves in the realm of political activism.  Here are highlights from a piece in Patheos:

According to a new study, the number of white evangelicals is dropping precipitously, to the point that there are now more Americans who profess “no religion” (21%) than there are who claim to be “evangelicals” (13%).

So finds the study sponsored by ABC News and the Washington Post.  Between 2003 and 2017, the percentage of evangelicals in the U.S. dropped from 21% to 13%.  While the percentage of “Nones” rose from 12% to 21%.

[I]f these new numbers are correct, the percentage of evangelicals has dropped by nearly half in three years, from being one in four Americans to just over one in ten.  Can that be right?

First of all, these are percentages of the total population, not raw numbers.  The white population as a percentage of the whole has declined, as the study points out, though the drop in the evangelical numbers is even greater.  Also, the ABC/Post study focuses on white evangelicals. 

Here are some more findings from the ABC/Post study:

(1)  The percentage of Americans who call themselves Christians has declined from 83% in 2003 to 72% in 2017.

(2)  The percentage of Protestants has declined from 50% in 2003 to 36% in 2017.

(3)  Catholics have held steady at 22%. [Thanks to the influx of Hispanic immigrants]

(4)  Other Christian groups that are neither Protestant nor Catholic–such as the Orthodox, Jehovah’s Witnesses (sic), and Mormons (sic)–have risen from 11% to 14%.  [So a bigger percentage belongs to these groups, not all of whom would be considered Christian by the terms of historical orthodoxy, than to white evangelicalism (13%)?  That doesn’t sound right, but maybe it is.]

(5)  Despite the rise in “nones,” the percentage of atheists has not risen from 2003 to 2017, holding steady at 3%.  [As we blogged about, 72% of “nones” believe in some sort of deity, with 17% believing in the God of the Bible.]

Although we might question some of the figures, let’s assume that the overall findings are correct.  Conservative Christians have long lorded it over the mainline liberal denominations, whose numbers have been in decline for decades.  Now it may be conservative Christians’ turn to decline in numbers.

An article by Ed Kilgore in New York Magazine, written in a rather gloating tone, raises another issue.  If white evangelicals make up only 13% of the population, how come they have so much political clout?  Their numbers are actually quite negligible. . . . . “If the irreligious ever get serious about flexing their muscles politically, a lot could change in this country, particularly on church-state separation issues.”

I for one hope the figures are accurate.  Evangelicals are one of the most toxic elements in American society today.

New Study: The Young Are Leaving the GOP in Droves

Just as the younger generations are fleeing organized Christianity, so too are they leaving the Republican Party in large numbers.  That's the conclusion of a new study by the Pew Research Center.  One driving force behind this trend is Der Trumpenführer himself who remains exceedingly unpopular. While not specifically addressed, the GOP's self-prostitution to fundamentalist/evangelical Christians - a group not popular with the under 30 generation - could well be another significant motivating factor.  A piece in Salon looks at the study findings:

It’s bleak out there for Democrats and progressives, yet the future of the GOP may be more precarious than it appears.

According to a new analysis from the Pew Research Center, 23 percent of Republican voters ages 18-29 have switched parties since 2015, against just 9 percent of Democratic voters in the same age range. As many as half of Republicans 30 and under have abandoned the party at one point or another during that time.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight finds that Trump’s approval rating has sunk to 39.7 percent, its lowest since he assumed office—and that figure doesn’t account for the latest Comey memo revelations. The danger for Republicans is real, writes the Washington Post’s Philip Bump:

 

Studies have shown that partisan identity is formed early on, with partisanship tending to correlate to the popularity of the president in office. As FiveThirtyEight noted in 2014, the most fervent Republican voters are those who were 18 at the outset of the Eisenhower and Reagan presidencies; the most Democratic were those who turned 18 as George W. Bush was mired in the Iraq War.

Whether the Democrats are capable of harnessing that unrest is another question entirely.

 Here are some of the specific findings:

Those who switched parties were less politically engaged than people who stayed with their parties. And among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, young people were far more likely than older adults to leave the GOP.

Only about half (53%) of those under 30 who initially identified as Republicans or leaned Republican consistently remained with the party over four subsequent surveys. Among older Republicans, 80% or more consistently identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.

Those who left the Republican Party, by contrast, expressed sharply negative views of Trump: 84% disapproved (57% strongly).

Democrats who stayed with their party – or left and returned – overwhelmingly disapproved of Trump’s job performance. 

One can only hope that the defections by younger voters accelerate  while the aging GOP literally dies off. 

The GOP Base: The Least Educated U.S. Religious Groups

I often blame the Republican Party's growing celebration of ignorance and denial of objective and scientific fact on the element of the party base that I describe as the Christofascists - namely evangelical Christians and fundamentalist Christians.  There are reasons for this groups avoidance of or discounting of facts: (i) facts and scientific knowledge threaten their legend and myth based religious beliefs, and (ii) they are among the least educated elements of American society.  Thus, as the Christofascists have risen in the Republican Party, the party has transformed from a stereo-typically party of affluence and education to one that is the exact opposite.  Indeed, one would now believe that a competition exists within the GOP to see who can be the most ignorant and most strongly reject facts and knowledge.  But, back to the Christofascists.  A study by Pew Research Center of the levels of education among religious groups in America has confirmed what I have long thought: the elements of the evangelical/fundamentalist Christian that make up the GOP's base are  the least educated (and I would argue the most ignorant) elements in America.  It's little wonder why Trump and his sixth grade level odf speaking appealed to them.  Here are findings from Pew:  

Attainment of a four-year college degree in the United States, often regarded as a key asset for economic success, varies by race and gender. But the share of people completing a college education also differs by religion, with members of some faith groups much more educated, on average, than others.

By far, Hindus and Unitarian Universalists have among the largest share of those with a college degree – 77% and 67% respectively. Roughly six-in-ten Jews (59%) have college degrees, as do similar shares in both the Anglican church (59%) and the Episcopal Church (56%).

These groups are among the top of a list of 30 U.S. religious groups ranked by educational attainment . . . . 

Other religious groups also have a higher percentage of college graduates than the full sample of more than 35,000 U.S. adults surveyed in the 2014 Religious Landscape Study, among whom 27% completed university. They include Buddhists and members of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) – both at 47% – as well as Orthodox Christians (40%), Muslims (39%) and Mormons (33%).

Since Catholics make up one-in-five adults, it is not surprising that their share of members with a college degree (26%) roughly mirrors that of the general public.

What the article does not directly highlight is the fact that Southern Baptists and other evangelical Christians are in the basement when it comes to educational attainment.  To me this makes me ask the following: why as a country do we continue to give undeserved deference to the beliefs of the least educated and least informed segment of the population?  It makes absolutely no sense.  When will the mainstream media wake up to this reality?

Donald Trump's Racist Base of Supporters

I have complained ad nausea about the Republican Party's willing embrace of racists - and religious zealots - as a deliberate way to turn out right wing voters.  The appeals to racists began with Richard Nixon's "Southern Strategy" and for years after continued with constant dog whistle appeals to would be KKK members.  With Donald Trump, the dog whistle has been cast aside and replaced by a clarion call that is being answered by far too many in the Republican Party base.  As a recent Pew Research survey reveals, the GOP is now dominated by those with open contempt and animus for those of other races.   Indeed, the animus is focused on anyone who is different as North Carolina's and Mississippi anti-LGBT bills have made all too clear.  A column in the Washington Post looks at this ugly state of affairs.  Here are highlights:

In a Republican debate last month, Donald Trump was asked whether his claim that “Islam hates us” means all 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide hate the United States. “I mean a lot of ’em,” Trump replied, as some in the crowd — Trump supporters, presumably — laughed and applauded.

That ugly moment comes to mind in describing how many of Trump’s supporters have racist motivations for backing him: Not all — but a lot of ’em.

A Pew Research Center national poll released Thursday found that 59 percent of registered voters nationwide think that an increasing number of people from different races, ethnic groups and nationalities makes the United States a better place to live; only 8 percent say this makes America worse. But among Trump backers, 39 percent say diversity improves America, while 42 percent say it makes no difference and 17 percent say it actually makes America worse. Supporters of GOP rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich were significantly more upbeat on diversity.

Trump had the support of 34 percent of Republican-leaning voters overall, but among those who said that whites are losing out, 43 percent supported Trump. Ehrenfreund and Clement did a further analysis finding that racial anxiety was at least as important as economic anxiety — the factor most commonly associated with Trump backers — in predicting support for Trump. Though the two factors were statistically close, those “who voiced concerns about white status appeared to be even more likely to support Trump than those who said they were struggling economically.”

Clement, The Post’s polling manager, told me: “What was striking to me in analyzing the data is that even after controlling for a variety of demographics and attitudes [including all those above], believing whites are losing out continued to be a key predictor of Trump support. . . . Its importance persisted under a wide range of scenarios.”

University of California at Irvine political scientist Michael Tesler, citing data from Rand Corp.’s Presidential Election Panel Survey, found that “Trump performs best among Americans who express more resentment toward African Americans and immigrants and who tend to evaluate whites more favorably than minority groups.”

Trump’s supporters overall tend to be older, disproportionately male, less likely to have a college degree and more likely to be suffering economically. But race is an ever-present factor among Trump supporters.

Thursday’s poll by nonpartisan Pew, a well-respected outfit, finds antipathy toward minorities as well: Sixty-nine percent of Trump supporters say immigrants burden the country, and Trump supporters are significantly more likely than other Republican voters to want illegal immigrants deported, to favor a wall along the Mexican border and to support extra scrutiny of Muslims in the United States solely because of their religion.

Trump makes bigots feel safe to come out of the shadows. But that doesn’t excuse them.

While not specifically addressed, the findings in my view help underscore the racist nature of many evangelical Christians.  Some evangelical leaders - e.g., Albert Mohler -  bloviate about Trump supporters not being "real evangelicals" yet having followed Christian "family values" groups for many years, there has always been a racist undercurrent in these groups.  Indeed, Family Research Council president has documented white supremacist ties.  Mohler and others can whine all they want, but the truth is that Trump has made these modern day Pharisees feel free to show their true racist mindsets.  

Pew Survey: Fewer Americans Are Religious, More Are Gay Accepting

Pew Research Center released the results of a new survey of Americans which provides more bad news for Christofascists and their tawdry political whores in the Republican Party.  According to to Pew, the lowest number of Americans ever report themselves as "religious" and the percentage of Americans who now consider themselves to be "Nones" is the highest ever.  Even worse for the Christofascists/GOP is the fact that even among the "religious," support for gays and gay rights is surging.  Think Progress looks at the Pew findings (the full report is here).  Here are highlights:

In a study released on Tuesday, Pew researchers reported that an increasing number of Americans aren’t claiming a religious affiliation, and that the percentage of people who say they believe in God, pray daily, or regularly attend worship services has declined in recent years. Researchers say this is partially due to the rise of the religiously unaffiliated, a group of mostly young people who are sometimes called “nones” because of how they answer questions about religious identification; they now account for 23 percent of the adult population, a seven-point increase since 2007, according to the study.

According to the survey, nonreligious Americans are overwhelmingly progressive, most aligning themselves with the Democratic Party. Yet among the three-quarters of U.S. adults that still claim a religion, virtually every major faith group is moving to embrace progressive values — especially acceptance of homosexuality and LGBT rights.

“Nearly all major religious groups have become significantly more accepting of homosexuality in recent years — even groups, such as evangelicals and Mormons, that traditionally have expressed strong opposition to same-sex relationships,” the report reads.

This can be seen in the wave of Christian groups that have voted to embrace same-sex marriage in over the past few years, such as Presbyterian Church (USA) and the Episcopal Church. . . . . And while the Catholic Church officially condemns same-sex relationships, the average Catholic is actually more progressive on marriage equality than the average American. 

Indeed, the next generation of theological conservatives has already shifted on the issue: half of millennials who identify as evangelical Protestants now say homosexuality should be accepted by society.

Although religious Americans still make up nearly three-quarters of Democrats and “Democratic-leaning” adults, there are now more “nones” in the group than Catholics, mainline Protestants, evangelical Protestants, or members of the historically black Protestant tradition. In total, three-in-ten Democrats now say they have no religion — a nine-point spike in seven years.

While the proportion of liberal people of faith is projected to grow over time, this shift among progressives doesn’t necessarily translate into an immediate windfall for Democrats, however. Although growing numbers of religious Americans are aligned with “nones” in the pursuit of some progressive policies, religiously unaffiliated people are notably less involved in the political process than their spiritual counterparts. According to the study, 71 percent of adults who claim a religion are registered to vote, compared to just 62 percent of “nones.” 

Obviously, I view the decline of religion to be be a positive.  However, we have much to do to motivate the "Nones" to get out and vote so that the Christofascists cannot force their beliefs on others via the ballot box. 

New Pew Poll: Bad News for the GOP

I often describe the Republican Party as an insane asylum that has been taken over by the inmates.  Now a new Pew Research Center survey suggests that I am not alone in that assessment.  The timing, of course, could not be worse for the GOP as it prepares for its first presidential candidate circus debate this week where the party's complete dysfunction will be on national display.  Pandering to the lunatics of the GOP base may make sense in a primary battle, but people are watching and are unlikely to forget batshitery in the primary come the general election.  A piece in The Hill looks at the GOP self-inflicted predicament.  Here are highlights: 

Given the nation’s historical preference for switching the party in the White House every eight years, the Grand Old Party should be having a grand old time heading into the 2016 races.

But a new Pew poll shows the party’s brand falling off a cliff, even among Republicans.

The late July poll found only 32 percent of voters holding a “favorable impression” of the GOP and 60 percent taking an “unfavorable view.” An early July Gallup poll also finds the Republican Party struggling for its footing on a steep downward slope, with only a 35 percent approval rating.

The biggest surprise is Pew’s finding that the slide in GOP support is primarily the result of Republican voters pulling away from Republican politicians.

At the start of the year, 86 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of their party. That figure has now fallen to 68 percent. According to Pew, that is “the lowest share in more than two years.” The poll also found an 8-point drop in the number of independent voters who view the GOP favorably, from 37 percent down to 29 percent. It is not surprising that, among Democrats, the view of the GOP has worsened amid its disarray. Only 14 percent of Democrats hold a favorable view of the GOP, down from 18 percent.

It is a surprise that backbiting, anger and contempt are this summer’s themes for Republicans. Just last November, after midterm election victories, the GOP base was energized and slinging darts at President Obama.

Now those same Republican are firing inside the tent, and with special delight at Republicans in Congress.

The depth of the disillusionment is clear. Only 28 percent of Republican voters give Congress a favorable rating, even though Republicans are in the majority in both houses.

The Pew poll can be read as evidence of the far right’s unhappiness with Republican leaders for not breaking down all attempts to govern. One of the few poll findings on which the GOP wins big comes when all voters are asked which party is “more extreme in its position.” Fifty-two percent of Americans now tell Pew that the GOP is a party of extremists while only 35 percent hold that opinion of Democrats. 

It is also worth noting that while the Republicans are taking turns lashing each other, the Pew poll found Democrats gaining in favorability among voters. “Today the gap [between the Democrats and the Republicans] is as wide as it has been in more than two years,” and moving in favor of the Democrats, Pew reported.

Republicans who were elected to Congress as part of the Tea Party wave in the 2010 and 2012 elections have never shown an interest in governing. Instead, they drive the activist base of the party with acid rhetoric suited for talk-show hosts. They engage in political brinksmanship, forcing one crisis after another but shredding the party’s brand with voters.

The GOP is currently a smashing talk-radio show or reality TV. But as a political party with responsibility to govern, its poll numbers are sinking under the table well ahead of November 2016 – the ultimate ratings period.

Pew Survey: Changing Positive Attitudes on Gay Marriage

While some polls have suggested that support for same sex marriage has fallen in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges, a new piece at Pew Research Center has bad news for the Christofascists: 55% of Americans support marriage equality versus 32% of Republicans who support marriage equality.  Most troubling for the GOP are the findings that 61% of independents support same sex marriage.  Worse yet from a long term view, 70% of  so-called Millennials support same sex marriage.  The findings are but further proof that the GOP is increasingly out of touch with the rest of America and living in a bubble like echo chamber dominated by Fox News, a/k/a Faux News, and loud mouth blowhards like Rush Limbaugh.  Here are highlights from Pew:

In Pew Research polling in 2001, Americans opposed same-sex marriage by a 57% to 35% margin.  Since then, support for same-sex marriage has steadily grown. Based on polling in 2015, a majority of Americans (55%) support same-sex marriage, compared with 39% who oppose it.

Younger generations express higher levels of support for same-sex marriage.  However, older generations also have become more supportive of same-sex marriage in recent years.

Among people who are religiously unaffiliated, a solid majority have supported same-sex marriage since 2001.

And among Catholics and white mainline Protestants, roughly six-in-ten now express support for same-sex marriage.  Support for same-sex marriage among black Protestants and white evangelical Protestants remains lower than among other religious groups.

Majorities of both Democrats (66%) and independents (61%) now favor same-sex marriage.  A smaller share of Republicans fave same-sex marriage (32%), though they also have become more supportive over the past decade.

Today, 58% of whites support same-sex marriage, as do 39% of blacks.

Despite these findings, the GOP remains the political whore of Christofascists.  When one does the numbers, it is hard to see the GOP remaining a viable political party in the long term, not because of marriage equality but because of a host of issues.  Increasingly, racism and demagoguery only plays well with a shrinking part of the electorate.