Will Iran Follow Egypt's Path?

Within not too many weeks, all of the old views on the Middle East seem to have been turned on their head as entrenched regimes in Tunisia and Egypt have been overthrown and now turmoil and demonstrations have moved on to other countries. Obviously, one key to autocrats retaining power is the the willingness of the military to fire on and kill citizen protesters. Once that willingness dissolves be it in Tsarist Russia, Egypt or elsewhere , the autocrats are in serious trouble. News out of Iran raises an interesting specter of a growing unwillingness of the Revolutionary Guard to shoot and kill protesters. Without the effective threat and use of deadly force, one has to wonder what may happen. Here are some highlights from The Telegraph:
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Senior officers in Iran's Revolutionary Guards have written a letter to their commanding officer demanding assurances that they will not be required to open fire on anti-government demonstrators.
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Following the recent violence that occurred during anti-government protests in Egypt, the officers argue that it is against the principles of Shi'ite Islamic law to use violence against their own people.
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In a suggestion of a major split within the Islamic Republic's ruling hierarchy over its handling of anti-government protests, the letter has been circulated widely throughout the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, the body responsible for defending religious system.
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During the violent anti-government demonstrations that followed the disputed presidential election in June 2009, which saw President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad elected to serve a second four-year term, the government relied heavily on the Basij to suppress the protests over fears that it could not rely on certain Guards units.

But in the letter, which is signed by senior officers commanding Guards units in Tehran, Qom, Isfahan and Tabriz, they urge Major Gen Jafari to "use your authority over the Basij to order them to leave their truncheons at home next time." It goes on to state unequivocally, "We promise our people that we will not shoot nor beat our brothers who are seeking to express legitimate protest against the policies and conduct of their leader."
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Western diplomats, who have also seen the letter and confirm its authenticity, say it has now been passed to Mr Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's Supreme Ruler, although no official response has been forthcoming.
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It goes without saying that I would very much like to see the current theocracy overthrown.

Is Something Happening in Iran?

As regular readers know, I have some time been following the ongoing developments in Iran and I candidly hope that the growing grass roots opposition will ultimately succeed and over throw the Islamic dictatorship currently ruling Iran. Given the nation's fabulous history, it truly deserves something better than the current crop of religious extremists at the helm of the nation. Obviously, if the Islamic dictatorship - which has been supporting Islamic extremists throughout the Middle East - is overthrown, a major realignment of power and political activism will unfold across the Middle East, including in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan. While the USA seems to be doing nothing to support the opposition elements in Iran, one can only pray that these brave opponents to the current regime are successful in the long run. Here are some highlights from the Timesonline:

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Iran’s panicking regime is once again seeking to suppress the Green Movement by decapitating it. Just as it did after June’s hotly-disputed presidential election, it is arresting high-profile reformists, academics and journalists who support the opposition. It hesitates to detain Mir Hossein Mousavi lest millions of his supporters take to the streets, but it has locked up his brother-in-law and is widely suspected of killing his nephew. It cannot arrest Shirin Ebadi, the Nobel laureate, as she is abroad, but it has imprisoned her sister.
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The tactic will prove as futile now as it did in June. Decapitation will not work because the opposition is a bottom-up movement run not by Mr Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi, its nominal leaders, but by its grassroots members. It is a massive campaign of civil disobedience.
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“Ahmadinejad, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards still don’t get it,” said one Iranian academic. “The Green Movement is a decentralised popular front run by local cells and local leaderships across the country. The main opposition figures do not control it. They are spiritual leaders, but do not provide any direction in regard to demonstrations or slogans.” . . . . Iranians are doing these things not because they are told to, but because they choose to. For a reviled regime that rules by diktat, that has to bus in supporters to fill its rallies, that must be a difficult concept to grasp.
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Protests are now common not just in Tehran, but in conservative cities such as Mashad and Qom. The regime’s use of violence during the holy month of Muharram, its lack of respect for Grand Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri after his recent death, and other sacriligious acts have eroded its support among the pious poor.
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One activist said: “Do Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the elite of the Revolutionary Guards really think that I, or anyone else, after being beaten by the police, witnessing the murder of Iranians on the streets, hearing stories of rape and murder in the prisons, and knowing of electoral cheating, will ever remain passive and quiet? None of us will ever accept the rule of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei after what they have done.”

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God/Allah speed to the protesters and I hope they can bring down the dictatorship and install a democratic government by the own efforts - not those of an occupying power such as the USA is trying to do in Iraq.

Is Iran Reaching the Tipping Point?

As a history major and avid reader on Middle Eastern history from the time of Alexander the Great and earlier, I have followed current events in Iran with great interest just as I did the 1979 overthrow of the Shah of Iran - a huge mistake, given the brutal regime that replaced his rule. The 1979 revolution also had a person connection since my uncle for whom I am named was heading up an engineering project in Iran when the Shah fell. Fortunately, he and other Americans with him were able to flee on foot across the border to escape capture by the Islamic revolutionaries. Things seem to be nearing a boiling point in Iran and now some are saying that the Islamic dictatorship is worse than the regime of the Shah. One of those saying this is Mehdi Karroubi - an influential Iranian reformist politician, democracy activist, mojtahed, and chairman of the National Trust Party. He was Chairman of the parliament from 1989 to 1992 and 2000 to 2004, and a presidential candidate in the 2005 and 2009 presidential elections. Via a YouTube clip, Karroubi stated today as follows:
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It's now seven months since they so shamelessly violated the Constitution, principles of the Republic and Ayatollah Khomeini's repeated mantra of: "the people's vote is the last word" on the day of the election. During these months they responded to the peaceful protests of our nation by illegal mass arrests, show trials, horrific violence in custody and killings. [...] Sadly these illegal actions were repeated in the last 10 days.
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Last night, they attacked the very spot Ayatollah Khomeini gave his speeches from for years when former President Khatami was giving a speech. And today from early in the morning, on the day of Ashura of all days, they acted with devastating violence, injuring many and killing a few of our fellow citizens.
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Those who were at the forefront of the struggle against Shah's regime, vividly remember the days of Ashoura in 1963, when even the Shah respected the sanctity of the holy day and only arrested the leaders of the opposition in the following days.
How is it that a regime born out of Ashura protests [like that of 1963] is now sending bunches of thugs to the streets and shedding people's blood on the day of Ashura? ...
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I can only cry out Imam Hossein's cry [killed in the day of Ashura in 7th century]: "Even if you don't have faith at least respect other's freedom!"
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More on the continuing unrest, possible defection by at least some of the dictatorships and Karroubi's statement can be found here.

Iran Protests Spread in Heartland

As far too many Americans seem to be embracing the dumbing down of the populace favored by the Christianists - who need an ignorant populace to further their theocratic goals - and focus on moronic reality TV, Tiger Woods' moral lapse, what same sex couples do in the privacy of their bedrooms, etc., rather than significant current events and basis knowledge such as geography, critical developments continue to be playing out in Iran. Depending upon which side wins in the continuing protests, the entire calculus of the Middle East could change radically. Personally, I do not understand the mind set or the narrow world view that allows citizens to be so oblivious of important events overseas. While many Americans view Iran as a backward nation of religious extremists, the reality is that the nation has a long cultural history that is more than 10 times the age of that of the USA. I hope the protests lead to a succesful overthrow of the current government and a true democracy. The Los Angeles Times has a story on the continuing protests in Iran which I hope in time may topple the theocratic dictatorship that currently rules that nation. Here are some highlights:

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Large-scale protests spread in central Iranian cities Wednesday, offering the starkest evidence yet that the opposition movement that emerged from the disputed June presidential election has expanded beyond its base of mostly young, educated Tehran residents to at least some segments of the country's pious heartland.
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Demonstrations took place in Esfahan, a provincial capital and Iran's cultural center, and nearby Najafabad, the birthplace and hometown of Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, whose death Saturday triggered the latest round of confrontations between the opposition movement and the government.
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Iranian authorities are clearly alarmed by the spread of the protests. Mojtaba Zolnour, a mid-ranking cleric serving as supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's representative to the elite and powerful Revolutionary Guard, acknowledged widespread unrest around the country.
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There were also reports Wednesday of protests breaking out on university campuses in Tehran and the eastern city of Mashhad, Iran's second largest, and a violent clash broke out in the southern city of Sirjan over the execution of two men accused of criminal activity. Tehran's mass postelection protests, which were crushed by authorities, drew Iranians from all walks of life.
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"What has happened was a religious reaction out of devotion and conviction" to Montazeri, he said. "While on the surface the unrest has no relation with the political agenda of the green [opposition] movement, more deeply it is part and parcel of the same social, political and economic dissatisfaction, and if it continues, it will become more a political than merely a religious backlash." "The limitation imposed on the reform movement by the government made it into a social movement which has become viable and gained momentum," he said.

Meanwhile, More Gruesome News from Iran

It has been a while since I last posted on events in Iran, but my heart is still with those who seek democracy and an overthrow of the Islamic dictatorship that still controls the country. Disturbing stories of the brutality of the dictatorship officials and their thugs continue to seep out of Iran and - one can hope - will perhaps in time lead to the overthrow of these foul rulers. Stories like this one from niacINsight make me sick and remind me that it is critical to keep the stories of the victims alive:

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New information is emerging about another victim of the Basij’s post-election violence. Saeedeh Pouraghaei was arrested because of her chants of Allahu-Akbar on the roof of her house in Dowlat Ave, in north of Tehran. Saeedeh was the only child of Abbas Pouraghaei who died two years ago of injuries sustained during the Iran-Iraq war. Saeedeh was arrested by the plain-clothed agents, and about 2o days after her arrest her mother was summoned to identify her body. Saeedeh’s mother says that the body was partially burned, and she recognized her daughter with difficulty. She was asked to announce “kidney failure” as the cause of death.

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According the Saeedeh’s family it seems that the body was intentionally burned to hide the evidence of rape and torture. Her body was not even handed over to her family, and they were just notified that she was secretly buried in Behesht Zahra cemetery in one of the unknown graves in section 309. Mir Hossein Mousavi attended Saeedeh’s funeral ceremony on Saturday in a mosque in Dowlat Ave.

Iran Tries to Suppress Rape Allegations

It is very hard to believe that the accusations that detained protesters were in some cases raped and sodomized are untrue. These violent acts were no doubt one by some of the same thugs that beat protesters to death and/or shot them in cold blood. What better way to demean and humiliate detainees that to sexually violate them. And then there's the fact that like all religious based tyrants, the current Islamic leaders lie without a second thought and somehow expect that thinking people will buy their bullshit. My rule of thumb is that the louder people protest that fact based allegations are untrue, the more one knows that they are knowingly lying. One can only hope that the accusations will continue and that pressure will build to force and investigation that will expose the crimes of the ruling dictators. Here are some highlights from the New York Times on the ongoing issue:

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Iran’s clerical leadership on Friday stepped up a campaign to silence opposition claims that protesters had been raped in prison, with prayer leaders in at least three major cities denouncing the accusations and their chief sponsor.

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The accusations of rape — usually a taboo subject in Iran — have multiplied and provoked strong reactions in the days since a reformist cleric and presidential candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, broached the subject last weekend. His allegations added fuel to an already volatile debate about prison abuse in the wake of Iran’s disputed June 12 election.

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Also on Friday, a group of reformist former lawmakers issued an extraordinary statement on opposition Web sites in which they denounced the government’s harsh tactics and appealed to a powerful state body to investigate the qualifications of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although it was not clear who had endorsed the statement, or even if all of the lawmakers were in the country, it appeared to be the most direct challenge to the supreme leader’s authority yet in the unrest following the election.

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But Mr. Karroubi appeared to be undaunted, and he pressed ahead with more claims of jailhouse sexual abuse in a statement posted on his party’s Web site late Thursday. He said he had received testimony from former prisoners that they had seen other detainees “forced to go naked, crawling on their hands and knees like animals, with prison guards riding on their backs.” Others told of watching as fellow prisoners guilty only of marching and chanting slogans were beaten to death, Mr. Karroubi said.

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The former lawmakers praised Mr. Karroubi for publicizing the rape accusations and angrily dismissed the mass trial of reformists now under way as a Stalinesque show trial. They also echoed opposition complaints about the brutality of the crackdown that followed the protests.

Murdered and Martyred and Show Trials - Part 2

In an update to my post yesterday, Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi has accused the brutal Islamic dictatorship government of "medieval torture"to force protesters to confess to the litany of crimes that the regime is alleging. The whole situation seems like a flash back to the show trials in the old Soviet Union when Stalin purged those who were in the way of his personal ambition and/or opposed what he was doing to the country. One can only hope such nasty and brutal tactics will only harden the resolve of those seeking democracy in Iran. Those in the USA who fail to heed the insanity of domestic theocrats and the Christian Taliban should take note of how the Islamic equivalents of these people operate. Religious fanaticism combined with a lust for power (e.g., folks like James Dobson, Richard Land at the SBC and Pat Robertson) are a dangerous mix. Here are some updates from the BBC News:

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Defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi says opposition detainees put on trial have been subjected to "medieval torture". He denounced the trials, which started on Saturday, as fraudulent and said the prisoners had been forced to confess.

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Earlier ex-President Mohammad Khatami criticised the hearings as "show trials" that would damage confidence in Iran's Islamic establishment. More than 100 people have been put on trial on charges including conspiracy. . . . Mr Khatami, in comments on his website, expressed hope that Saturday's trial would not "lead to ignorance of the real crimes", the Associated Press reports.

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The AFP news agency quotes Mr Khatami, who was president from 1997 to 2005, as making more outspoken criticism of the trial. "What was done yesterday is against the constitution, regular laws and rights of the citizens," his office quoted him as saying.

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Mr Mousavi's comments went even further, accusing the authorities of forcing the detainees to confess to the crimes. "The teeth of the torturers and confession-extorters have reached to the bones of the people," he said. "Witnessing such trumped-up trials, the only judgment that the conscience of humanity can make is the moral collapse and discredit of its directors."
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Mohsen Rezai, the only conservative to have challenged Mr Ahmadinejad in the election, also criticised the trial, saying people who had attacked the protesters should also be put on trial.

Martyred and Murdered - And Show Trials

I continue to watch events in Iran with a mixture of hope and dismay. Personally, I think in the long term the Islamic dictators are making huge mistakes. While they seem intent on making examples of protesters and have started the equivalent of the old Soviet Union's show trials, ultimately they are creating a whole class of martyrs the memories of which will help keep opposition alive even if it takes a long time to finally boil over. Then again, when one's motivations are power and religious extremism, logic and thoughtful analysis of the bigger picture often isn't even on the radar screen. Tehran Bureau has a story that identifies some of those murdered by the dictators' thugs which is very sad and moving. Here are some highlights (I urge readers to review the site in order to realize that brutality of the current regime):
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A massive demonstration had been called for today [this past Thursday] to commemorate the dead of “Bloody Saturday” — the violent showdown on June 20 in central Tehran during which Neda Aga Soltan and others were killed. Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi’s Facebook page announced he would pay homage at her grave at Behesht Zahra cemetery on the outskirts of the capital. Mousavi invited other mourners to join him for the Shia 40-day memorial ritual. Tehran Bureau is compiling profiles of those who died in the post-election turmoil, as confirmed by official news sites Mowjcamp, Ghalam News and other reliable sources. The list (chronologically ordered) will be updated.

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Today's New York Times has coverage of the trials of protestors that the dictators wish to use as examples to deter others from challenging its regressive and anti-democratic policies. Again, I continue to hope that repression serves merely to inspire more contempt for the current rulers and cause fence sitters to go over to the side of the pro-democratic opposition. As with all despots, the regime is making allegations against protestors that are fabricated and hopefully will be seen as such by the wider population. Here are some highlights:

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TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- More than 100 opposition political activists and protesters stood trial in Tehran Saturday on charges of rioting and conspiring to topple the ruling system in the country's first trial since the disputed presidential election, Iran's state media reported. The trial underlines the government's efforts to bring to a close anti-government demonstrations that have persisted since the disputed June 12 presidential election.

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The defendants faced charges that include attacking military and government buildings, having links with armed opposition groups and conspiring against the ruling system, Iran's official news agency, IRNA, reported. During the session, prosecutors read out an indictment outlining what they said was a yearslong plot by the top pro-reform political parties to carry out a ''velvet revolution,'' a popular, non-violent uprising to overthrow the Islamic Republic similar to ones that have occurred in Eastern Europe.

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Among the defendants were several prominent reformist opposition activists, including former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, former government spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, former Vice Speaker of parliament Behzad Nabavi, former Deputy Foreign Minister Mohsen Aminzadeh and leader of the biggest reformist party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mohsen Mirdamadi. The reformist Web site www.mowjcamp.com denounced Saturday's trial and said defendants had no access to lawyers and there was no jury.

Iran Protests: Phase 2

Like many political and news junkies, I continue to follow the ongoing developments in Iran and hope they will lead to the eventual overthrow of the current Islamic dictatorship and its replacement by a truly democratic government that allows for religious freedoms. As yet, it is still difficult to know where things will possibly lead, but it does seem that there might be a slow but steady undercurrent brewing that may yet build renewed steam and lead to change. A democratic Iran not dominated by extremist Islamic clerics would change the whole political and economic game in the Middle East. It could well undermine support for the Taliban and other Islamic fundamentalist extremists and lead to pressure for reform and increased freedoms in other Islamic countries. Time has article that looks at the unfolding events. Here are some highlights:

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Phase 2 has begun. Six weeks after millions took to the streets to protest Iran's presidential election, their uprising has morphed into a feistier, more imaginative and potentially enduring campaign. The second phase plays out in a boycott of goods advertised on state-controlled television. Just try buying a certain brand of dairy product, an Iranian human-rights activist told me, and the person behind you in line is likely to whisper, "Don't buy that. It's from an advertiser."

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It includes calls to switch on every electric appliance in the house just before the evening TV news to trip up Tehran's grid. It features quickie "blitz" street demonstrations, lasting just long enough to chant "Death to the dictator!" several times but short enough to evade security forces. It involves identifying paramilitary Basij vigilantes linked to the crackdown and putting marks in green — the opposition color — or pictures of protest victims in front of their homes. It is scribbled antiregime slogans on money. And it is defiant drivers honking horns, flashing headlights and waving V signs at security forces.

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[T]heir variety and scope indicate that Iran's uprising is not a passing phenomenon like the student protests of 1999, which were quickly quashed. This time, Iranians are rising above their fears. Although embryonic, today's public resolve is reminiscent of civil disobedience in colonial India before independence or in the American Deep South in the 1960s. Mohandas Gandhi once mused that "even the most powerful cannot rule without the cooperation of the ruled." That quotation is now popular on Iranian websites.

The current uprising is nowhere near as widespread as that of 1979. Yet the activism is creating a new political space in Iran. The public is defining its own agenda, with Rafsanjani, Mousavi and other opposition figures responding to sentiment on the street rather than directing it. After meeting on July 20 with the families of people detained following the election, Mousavi warned the power structure, "You are facing something new: an awakened nation, a nation that has been born again and is here to defend its achievements." As Iran's second phase of protests takes shape, the regime's future may depend on whether it heeds that warning.

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I continue to hope that the protesters succeed and I will continue showing the green color of the protesters on this blog as a sign of support. Fareed Zakaria has an article in Newsweek that also looks at the situation in Iran and cautions that the U.S. should do nothing for the time being and allow the undercurrent of protest to grow.

Fixated on Iran and The Protesters

Perhaps it's the history student in me or maybe my interests in politics and foreign relations, but I find I cannot get enough information on the ongoing protest - revolution? - in Iran. Andrew Sullivan has helped lead the way in getting the story out with amazing coverage of events and often glimpses of the savagery of the government and its henchmen as people are shot or beaten to death on video. As sickening as it is, I believe it is important to witness what is happening for several reasons.

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The first reason is to be reminded of what regimes will do to remain in power - particularly those that claim to have God/Allah on their side. The ruling government in Iran has shown itself to be nothing less than utterly evil and I truly hope that all of this nightmare results in its overthrow and prosecution of those ordering the murders of protesters. Given the brutality being visited on unarmed protesters, I cannot believe any higher power/being would condone such viciousness despite what the demagogues are claiming

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The second reason is to be reminded that these Iranian protesters are the people that Bush/Cheney and their largely Christianist base wanted to bomb and annihilate. The protesters are showing that despite their different culture, they want democracy. Moreover they proving themselves much more willing to risk their lives and die for democracy than many of the falsely pious and self-satisfied haters in this country who look down upon everyone who doesn't look just like them and hold the same religious beliefs.

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Yes, watching the brutality and cruelty is heart wrenching, but in truth every American should be required to watch some of it and learn that people are people be they Christian, Jews, Hindu, or Muslim. Hatred and division based on religion are among the greatest evils in the world. And it's telling that those who claim to be the most religious and pios are the ones most filled with hate and judgment of others.