Is Iran Reaching the Tipping Point?

As a history major and avid reader on Middle Eastern history from the time of Alexander the Great and earlier, I have followed current events in Iran with great interest just as I did the 1979 overthrow of the Shah of Iran - a huge mistake, given the brutal regime that replaced his rule. The 1979 revolution also had a person connection since my uncle for whom I am named was heading up an engineering project in Iran when the Shah fell. Fortunately, he and other Americans with him were able to flee on foot across the border to escape capture by the Islamic revolutionaries. Things seem to be nearing a boiling point in Iran and now some are saying that the Islamic dictatorship is worse than the regime of the Shah. One of those saying this is Mehdi Karroubi - an influential Iranian reformist politician, democracy activist, mojtahed, and chairman of the National Trust Party. He was Chairman of the parliament from 1989 to 1992 and 2000 to 2004, and a presidential candidate in the 2005 and 2009 presidential elections. Via a YouTube clip, Karroubi stated today as follows:
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It's now seven months since they so shamelessly violated the Constitution, principles of the Republic and Ayatollah Khomeini's repeated mantra of: "the people's vote is the last word" on the day of the election. During these months they responded to the peaceful protests of our nation by illegal mass arrests, show trials, horrific violence in custody and killings. [...] Sadly these illegal actions were repeated in the last 10 days.
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Last night, they attacked the very spot Ayatollah Khomeini gave his speeches from for years when former President Khatami was giving a speech. And today from early in the morning, on the day of Ashura of all days, they acted with devastating violence, injuring many and killing a few of our fellow citizens.
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Those who were at the forefront of the struggle against Shah's regime, vividly remember the days of Ashoura in 1963, when even the Shah respected the sanctity of the holy day and only arrested the leaders of the opposition in the following days.
How is it that a regime born out of Ashura protests [like that of 1963] is now sending bunches of thugs to the streets and shedding people's blood on the day of Ashura? ...
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I can only cry out Imam Hossein's cry [killed in the day of Ashura in 7th century]: "Even if you don't have faith at least respect other's freedom!"
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More on the continuing unrest, possible defection by at least some of the dictatorships and Karroubi's statement can be found here.

Shah's Son Calls Crisis a Mmoment of Truth'

I have written previously about the parallels between the Russian revolution of 1917 and the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran and how an allegedly tyrannical monarch was over thrown only to be replaced by an utterly vile and brutal regime that made its predecessor look like the height of compassion and moderation. Interestingly, the Shah of Iran's son (pictured above) shared some of his thoughts with what is taking place in Iran - a country that his father did much to modernize and poise for engagement with the west in a positive sense. Of course, these efforts were hated by the mullahs and fundamentalist extremists who now rule the country. (I had an uncle who was an engineer working in Iran in 1979 - he had nothing good to say about the fundamentalists and literally had to walk across the border to safety in order to escape the revolution). Here are some highlights from CNN:
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The son of the former shah of Iran called Monday for solidarity against Iran's Islamic regime, warning that the democratic movement born out of the election crisis might not succeed without international support.

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"The moment of truth has arrived," Reza Shah Pahlavi said at Washington's National Press Club. "The people of Iran need to know who stands with them." Pahlavi has lived in exile since 1979, when his father, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, was overthrown during the Islamic Revolution. Under the shah's regime, Iran saw nationalization of its oil and a strong movement toward modernization. Still, his secular programs and recognition of Israel cost him the support of the country's Shiite clergy, sparking clashes with the religious right and others who resented his pro-West views.

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Citing anecdotes from people inside the Iranian establishment, Pahlavi said he had heard that security forces have begun to distance themselves from the regime. "It has already started," he said, citing reports that members of the security forces have gone home after their shifts ended and changed into plain clothes to join the protesters. "Many, many elements within the security forces, within the Revolutionary Guard, are showing discontent," Pahlavi said. "There is an amazing reflection that is happening. ... This is a movement that has blown out of proportion."

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Pahlavi praised the statements and tone of President Obama, saying that any outside attempt to interfere in Iran's internal affairs "will give the tyrants the excuse they need to paper over their own differences and target every man struggling for freedom as a foreign agent." But he said there was a difference between interfering in a country's sovereign affairs and standing for principles of human rights and democracy.

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In my view, one of the USA's big policy mistakes was doing nothing and allowing the Shah's government to fall only to be replaced by a far worse regime.