Is Vladimir Putin Weaker Than He Wants to Appear?

Not all Russians view Putin as their new Tsar.

While Vladimir Putin appears to have dealt a major blow against the United States by succeeding in placing an unfit narcissist in the White House who is rapidly harming America's standing around the globe, as a piece in the Washington Post lays out, Putin has his own problems at home, especially as the Russian economy continues to leave many behind and much of the populace tires of the corruption and misrule.  Putin may not be ready to be overthrown anytime soon, but it would appear that democratic forces in Russia are growing, particularly at the local level where opposition politicians are being elected to office.  Should the trend continue, Putin may find less time for foreign adventures.  Here are article highlights:

Vladi­mir Putin’s grim, businesslike inauguration to a fourth term as Russian president last week was accompanied by equally grim commentaries about his grip on the country. He may have stolen the election, it was said, but the vast majority of Russians support him and his regime. He may have eliminated all serious opposition, through prohibitions, imprisonment and the occasional murder, but his country is unsuited for democracy anyway.

There’s a tiresome illogic to such stuff: If 80 percent of voters support you, why not let your main opponent compete, and prove it? If Russians are really content with political serfdom, why did tens of thousands of them take to the streets of more than 60 cities two days before the inauguration, carrying signs saying things such as “Putin is not our Tsar”?

How refreshing, then, to meet the group of Russians who appeared in Washington last week, shortly after Putin’s swearing-in: opposition activists who are not just protesting but also organizing grass-roots movements in and around Moscow — and who delivered a small but startling rebuff to the Kremlin a few months ago. Theirs is a more realistic, grounded view of Putin’s Russia, which is a place where discontent is growing, the desire for civil rights is tangible and the prospect of democratic change is, in the longer term, real. [T]hings can change very fast if there is a real opposition,” said Natalia Shavshukova, a former municipal council member who now trains local politicians. Her proof? In the municipal elections in the Moscow region in September, independent candidates won 260 of about 1,500 seats, compared with 30 in the previous election. One of the districts lost by the government was the Moscow area including the Kremlin. . . . a real democratic election? In Putin’s Russia? It turns out they can still happen on the local level, largely because the regime lacks the resources to suppress independent candidates or steal votes in every municipal council. In that space, grass-roots movements have sprung up: People angry about toxic garbage dumps, a destructive urban renewal plan or local corruption are banding together, finding candidates and getting them elected, using the mostly empty shells of legally tolerated political parties as their vehicles.

What the emerging local movements show, though, is that if Putin is seeking to create a model of 21st-century authoritarian government in Russia, he’s not succeeding. His regime consists of a centralized, mafia-like clique that controls the military, security services, state television and a number of big companies but — unlike in the Soviet era — not everything. Wherever it retreats — and under mounting economic pressure, the regime is retreating — an independent civil society springs up. 

Though they don’t get much attention, popular protests are slowly growing around Russia. They are triggered by the abuses and disasters of a failing government — such as theshopping-mall fire that killed 64 people in the Siberian city of Kemerovo in March, or the landfill emitting toxic fumes in the Moscow suburb of Volokolamsk last month.

But what seems clear in talking to these Russian organizers is that Putin, the putative all-powerful ruler, will not control the timing. “For many people, Putin is simply a symbol of great Russia,” said Galiamina. “Our goal is to show people the connection between local problems, their lives and federal policies. But it’s a very long-term goal. For now, we have to show them that politics exists.”

Iran Protests: Phase 2

Like many political and news junkies, I continue to follow the ongoing developments in Iran and hope they will lead to the eventual overthrow of the current Islamic dictatorship and its replacement by a truly democratic government that allows for religious freedoms. As yet, it is still difficult to know where things will possibly lead, but it does seem that there might be a slow but steady undercurrent brewing that may yet build renewed steam and lead to change. A democratic Iran not dominated by extremist Islamic clerics would change the whole political and economic game in the Middle East. It could well undermine support for the Taliban and other Islamic fundamentalist extremists and lead to pressure for reform and increased freedoms in other Islamic countries. Time has article that looks at the unfolding events. Here are some highlights:

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Phase 2 has begun. Six weeks after millions took to the streets to protest Iran's presidential election, their uprising has morphed into a feistier, more imaginative and potentially enduring campaign. The second phase plays out in a boycott of goods advertised on state-controlled television. Just try buying a certain brand of dairy product, an Iranian human-rights activist told me, and the person behind you in line is likely to whisper, "Don't buy that. It's from an advertiser."

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It includes calls to switch on every electric appliance in the house just before the evening TV news to trip up Tehran's grid. It features quickie "blitz" street demonstrations, lasting just long enough to chant "Death to the dictator!" several times but short enough to evade security forces. It involves identifying paramilitary Basij vigilantes linked to the crackdown and putting marks in green — the opposition color — or pictures of protest victims in front of their homes. It is scribbled antiregime slogans on money. And it is defiant drivers honking horns, flashing headlights and waving V signs at security forces.

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[T]heir variety and scope indicate that Iran's uprising is not a passing phenomenon like the student protests of 1999, which were quickly quashed. This time, Iranians are rising above their fears. Although embryonic, today's public resolve is reminiscent of civil disobedience in colonial India before independence or in the American Deep South in the 1960s. Mohandas Gandhi once mused that "even the most powerful cannot rule without the cooperation of the ruled." That quotation is now popular on Iranian websites.

The current uprising is nowhere near as widespread as that of 1979. Yet the activism is creating a new political space in Iran. The public is defining its own agenda, with Rafsanjani, Mousavi and other opposition figures responding to sentiment on the street rather than directing it. After meeting on July 20 with the families of people detained following the election, Mousavi warned the power structure, "You are facing something new: an awakened nation, a nation that has been born again and is here to defend its achievements." As Iran's second phase of protests takes shape, the regime's future may depend on whether it heeds that warning.

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I continue to hope that the protesters succeed and I will continue showing the green color of the protesters on this blog as a sign of support. Fareed Zakaria has an article in Newsweek that also looks at the situation in Iran and cautions that the U.S. should do nothing for the time being and allow the undercurrent of protest to grow.

Religious Based Inhumanity

My heart continues to go out to those in Iran who have been killed or who are currently jailed under God knows what conditions as the Islamic dictatorship uses brutality to hold onto control. I truly hope that if nothing else Americans come to learn that the Iranian people are not synonymous with the Islamic dictatorship that currently rules the country. Fortunately, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran is getting the truth out so that both the outside world and many within Iran will know the true story of what has been done allegedly in the name of Allah and Islam. One example is the sad story of Sohrab Aarabi, age 19 (pictured at left), who was likely murdered by the henchmen of the governing regime. Here are some highlights from a press release of the Tehran Bureau:

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(12 July 2009) Iranian authorities have informed the family of Sohrab Aarabi, 19, that he died of gunshot wounds to his heart, 26 days after he disappeared during a demonstration on 15 June, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reported today.

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Aarabi’s mother, Parvin Fahimi, a member of the Mothers for Peace organization, made numerous attempts to obtain information about his situation, taking his photograph to prisons, courts and other addresses. Finally, on 11 July, after the protests commemorating the “18 Tir” student demonstrations in 1999, the family was summoned by the Revolutionary Court and referred to the Investigatory Bureau (Agahi), and asked to identify Sohrab from among several photographs of corpses. According to family members interviewed by the Campaign, his body had arrived at the coroner’s office on 19 June, five days after his disappearance. Sohrab Aarabi was due to begin his university studies this year.

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The lack of transparency and calculated delay in releasing the information about Aarabi’s unexplained death only raises anxieties about scores of others who are among the disappeared as well as those who have been held in incommunicado detention, with no contact to family members or lawyers, many for almost a month. Approximately 190 people were arrested following the most recent demonstrations on 9 July.

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“Many families fear they will also be told their loved ones were killed in the demonstrations, and will be left to wonder if it is the truth, “ Ghaemi said. “Indeed, the families of the disappeared are suffering from a form of torture because of the absence of credible information.”

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For the latest human rights developments in Iran visit the Campaign’s website at www.iranhumanrights.org

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I hate to say it, but I continue to believe religion - at least institutional religion - causes much more evil than good.