Will Iran Follow Egypt's Path?

Within not too many weeks, all of the old views on the Middle East seem to have been turned on their head as entrenched regimes in Tunisia and Egypt have been overthrown and now turmoil and demonstrations have moved on to other countries. Obviously, one key to autocrats retaining power is the the willingness of the military to fire on and kill citizen protesters. Once that willingness dissolves be it in Tsarist Russia, Egypt or elsewhere , the autocrats are in serious trouble. News out of Iran raises an interesting specter of a growing unwillingness of the Revolutionary Guard to shoot and kill protesters. Without the effective threat and use of deadly force, one has to wonder what may happen. Here are some highlights from The Telegraph:
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Senior officers in Iran's Revolutionary Guards have written a letter to their commanding officer demanding assurances that they will not be required to open fire on anti-government demonstrators.
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Following the recent violence that occurred during anti-government protests in Egypt, the officers argue that it is against the principles of Shi'ite Islamic law to use violence against their own people.
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In a suggestion of a major split within the Islamic Republic's ruling hierarchy over its handling of anti-government protests, the letter has been circulated widely throughout the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, the body responsible for defending religious system.
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During the violent anti-government demonstrations that followed the disputed presidential election in June 2009, which saw President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad elected to serve a second four-year term, the government relied heavily on the Basij to suppress the protests over fears that it could not rely on certain Guards units.

But in the letter, which is signed by senior officers commanding Guards units in Tehran, Qom, Isfahan and Tabriz, they urge Major Gen Jafari to "use your authority over the Basij to order them to leave their truncheons at home next time." It goes on to state unequivocally, "We promise our people that we will not shoot nor beat our brothers who are seeking to express legitimate protest against the policies and conduct of their leader."
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Western diplomats, who have also seen the letter and confirm its authenticity, say it has now been passed to Mr Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's Supreme Ruler, although no official response has been forthcoming.
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It goes without saying that I would very much like to see the current theocracy overthrown.