Virginia 94th District Race to Drag Out Further

The continuing saga of the 94th District race appears to be headed for further delays as Democrat Shelly Simonds has petitioned the Newport News Circuit Court to reconsider its decision to award a vote to her Republican opponent even though the ballot had BOTH candidates marked.  One would think that the ballot should have been thrown out completely rather than awarded on a subjective analysis of what the voter might have intended.   In truth, the individual casting the vote should have asked for a new ballot.  The larger lesson is that voters need to get to the polls, especially those in the Democrat base.  The Virginian Pilot looks at the continuing saga.  Here are excerpts:

Democrat Shelly Simonds says elections officials didn’t follow procedure in a recount that could swing the balance of power in the House of Delegates, and she will ask a court to declare her the winner of the 94th District race, according to court documents she plans to file Wednesday.

The winner – either Simonds or Republican Del. David Yancey – was to be determined by a drawing at 11 a.m. in Richmond. After Simonds’ comments Tuesday, it was postponed.

Simonds will ask the Newport News Circuit Court to reconsider the decision to count one disputed ballot in Yancey’s favor last week and name her the winner.

Simonds’ team planned to ask that the drawing be delayed and for an expedited decision from the court.

“While our planned drawing for tomorrow was in full compliance with the Code of Virginia, neutral election administrators should not be choosing election winners — or influencing the next Speaker of the House,” State Board of Elections Chairman James Alcorn said Tuesday via Twitter. The drawing is a last resort, he said, and any concerns regarding the election or recount should be resolved before it takes place.

“This will best serve the voters of HD94 and the rest of the Commonwealth,” he said.

After the Nov. 7 election, Yancey led Simonds by 10 votes. She requested a recount, which resulted in a win by one vote for her. The morning those results were supposed to be certified, Yancey’s lawyers showed the court a ballot they thought should be counted.
On it, the voter filled in both candidates’ bubbles. Simonds’ bubble had a single diagonal slash mark through it. It originally was not counted for either candidate.

Under Virginia law, Simonds’ filing says, votes in a recount can only be redetermined once.

In all, the ballot in question has been reviewed three times, according to the filing.  “This really breaks the recount process in Virginia if this precedent stands,” said Simonds’ lawyer, Ezra Reese.

The GOP Fallout from Alabama's Special Election

The fallout for the Republican Party from yesterday's loss in Alabama is multi-fold.  Perhaps the most serious issue is how the GOP will be able to nominate candidates with a chance of winning in a general election when the party's base of primary voters now display the temperament of dogs suffering from rabies.  There simply are not enough racists and religious extremists to put extreme GOP candidates over the finish line in a general election - even it seems in Alabama.  Here are thoughts from Politico for what this means for the GOP:

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — A Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Alabama for the first time in a quarter-century, and the political earthquake has just begun. 

The shock result presented Republicans a brief opportunity for relief, as they would not have to stand by Moore. But Election Night reshaped the political landscape: one in which Republicans’ majority in the Senate is down to one seat, and in which one of the most conservative states in the nation has a Democrat representing it.

Here are POLITICO’s five takeaways after Alabama’s wild, ugly, controversial, and historically unparalleled Senate race:

Bannon's bruisingFormer White House chief strategist Steve Bannon went all-in for Moore — and then some. . . . Moore’s loss deals a serious blow to the anti-establishment campaign Bannon had been planning for next year’s midterms, one that was predicated on defeating incumbents and other mainstream Republicans that are being propped up by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The ever-defiant Bannon may not back down, but Moore’s loss gave ammunition to McConnell allies, who called the Alabama race proof that Bannon’s insurgent favorites were unelectable.

What black voter problem?All the chatter across Alabama for the final week of the race focused on Democrats’ alleged problems turning out black voters. But after a blockbuster turnout operation designed by Jones’ campaign and national Democrats, African-American voters turned out in massive numbers for the former U.S. attorney.  . . . . with strong minority support energized by both hatred of Donald Trump and Roy Moore, Jones provided Democrats with a model for 2018, even in the deep South.

Trump loses capital
The president [Trump] put his political capital on the line – and lost. . . . . Trump jumped in for Moore. Just days before the election, he went to the Florida Panhandle, just outside the Alabama state line, to campaign for Moore. He also cut a robo-call for the candidate and he tweeted his support.

Yet his endorsement wasn’t enough to pull the embattled candidate over the line, just like when he backed Strange in the primary.

That the loss took place in Alabama only adds salt to the wound: the conservative state helped to catapult Trump’s 2016 primary win.

Revenge of the soccer mom
The other primary reason for Jones’ win was strong antipathy toward Moore among white, suburban, college-educated conservatives. Many of them chose to sit out the election or follow the lead of Sen. Richard Shelby and write in an option other than Moore. That follows the pattern of Republican under-performance in the suburbs during earlier races in 2017, and it creates a clear opportunity for Democrats in 2018 — especially given their enormous turnouts.

[D]iscomfort with Trump among educated voters outside of cities — especially women — has now propelled Democratic candidates to closer-than-expected margins or victories in multiple races so far this year, from Virginia’s gubernatorial race to the close special U.S. House race outside of Atlanta in June. . . . . said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster based in Montgomery. “You do have to ask yourself, if you’re a Republican, if you’re on the verge of losing a critical part of the Republican coalition.”

Democrats to Trump: Watch outJones' euphoric victory party in Birmingham on Tuesday night quickly spilled over into a dance party, reflecting the kind of rumbling Democratic enthusiasm that's punctuated statewide races across the country in 2017.

Riding what they are increasingly convinced could be a blue tsunami powered by millennials, furious women, and minority voters, Democrats are newly eyeing opportunities to take back the House and Senate, as well as governors' mansions from Maine to Arizona.

The eye-popping turnout numbers coming from Democratic strongholds like Birmingham and Montgomery in Alabama . . . . are giving Republicans reason to sweat in the Trump era, as they face up to a potential backlash.

Pew Survey: White Christians No Longer a Majority

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The latest Pew Research Center Religious Landscape survey results released yesterday have what in my view is very good news except perhaps for the Republican Party:  only 46 percent of American adults are white Christians, a decrease from 55 percent in 2007.  That's right, now the GOP is chasing the vote of a minority of the adult voting population.  When one winnows out the non-Christofascist elements, the number likely support the quasi-theocratic agenda of the Republican Party is even further reduced. Specifically, 31 percent of White Christians identify as supporting Democrats, so the net number supporting the GOP equates to just 31.7 percent of the adult Americans constitute the religious extremist base of the GOP.  Politico looks at the new survey findings.  Here are highlights:

White Christians now make up less than half of the U.S. population, largely receding from the majorities of most demographic groups, with one notable exception: the Republican Party.

According to the latest results from Pew Research Center's Religious Landscape survey published Monday by National Journal's Next America project, just 46 percent of American adults are white Christians, down from 55 percent in 2007.

At the same time, according to the report, the share of white Christians identifying as Republican has remained steady, even equal with the share of the party that carried President Ronald Reagan to his 1984 reelection. Nearly seven in 10 white Christians — 69 percent — identify with or lean toward the GOP, while just 31 percent do the same with Democrats.

Among nonwhite Christians, meanwhile, 32 percent identify with or lean toward Democrats, and just 13 percent do the same with Republicans.

In less than a decade, the gap in Christian identification between Democrats and Republicans has increased by 50 percent. According to the data presented, in 2007, 88 percent of white Republicans and 70 percent of white Democrats identified as Christian, an 18-point disparity. By 2014, 84 percent of white Republicans identified as Christian, but the share of white Democrats identifying as Christian fell by 13 points, to 57 percent, a 27-point gap.

The National Journal had this additional findings:

In a land­mark shift, few­er than half of White Demo­crats with a col­lege de­gree now identi­fy as Chris­ti­ans; that’s a much smal­ler per­cent­age than among the party’s Blacks and Lati­nos.

54 per­cent of all Amer­ic­ans who don’t identi­fy with any re­li­gious tra­di­tion now call them­selves Demo­crats. Just 23 per­cent of the “nones” identi­fy as Re­pub­lic­ans, with 22 per­cent call­ing them­selves in­de­pend­ents.

[W]hile black and Latino Demo­crats do some­times take dif­fer­ent views on so­cial is­sues than sec­u­lar white lib­er­als, af­fin­ity on oth­er is­sues—from im­mig­ra­tion to gov­ern­ment act­iv­ism—so far has trumped those dis­agree­ments. “You are not see­ing any evid­ence that there is less sup­port for Demo­crats among ra­cial and eth­nic minor­it­ies be­cause [re­li­gious] ‘nones’ are a grow­ing share of the party,” . . .

Personally,  I long for the day when Christians of all races are a small, powerless minority of Americans and they are no longer to infuse their hate and bigotry into the civil laws.  As for the right wing Christians, they best be hoping that as they become a smaller and smaller minority of the population the new majority doesn't treat them the way these godly folk have treated others.  

Shades of Red and Blue Among Virginia Voters

With Virginia a likely "swing state" in the 2016 presidential elections, attention is being trained on Virginia's voters and their varying mindsets.  The findings of one such study by Christopher Newport University shows the complexities of Virginia's increasingly diverse and more urban population.  Not surprisingly, among the areas key to winning the state is the Hampton Roads region with roughly 1.7 million people.  The political views in the region could be described as schizophrenic in some ways with people saying they are conservative, but not partisan.  Also, moderates make up 40% of the state's voters - a reality seemingly lost on the Virginia GOP.  Here are highlights on the findings via the Daily Press:

On Thursday, the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University released a study that broke that purple electorate down into seven classifications, or "typologies."

One of the findings will surprise no one: "There are more moderate voters in the state," said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center. "Virginia is a swing state, with about 40 percent of the electorate deciding elections."

The center's report, "Commonwealth of Contrasts," places registered voters into groups based on attitudes and values rather than political party affiliations. The typologies they came up with are:

•Solid Liberals, who reject completely the idea that everyone has the power to succeed or that most people who want to get ahead can.

•Suburban Liberals, who hold views similar to Solid Liberals, but with less intensity.

•Staunch Conservatives, who dominated by the Tea Party and take extremely conservative views on most issues, such as the environment, government and immigration.

•Working Class Conservatives, who are moderate cousins of the Staunch Conservatives, but with less intensity.

•Libertarians, a younger group with strong views in support of individual self-determination and responsibility and strong opposition to government intervention in most ways.

•Disengaged Liberals, who are the only majority-minority group of the seven, are conservative on God and morality, but more liberal on most other issues.

•Disaffecteds, who are younger voters who are the least partisan and least ideological of the groups.

In Hampton Roads, only 3 percent were identified as Solid Liberals — the lowest in the state. But 17 percent of area voters were identified as Suburban Liberals.

Less-partisan voters in the region topped 42 percent — one of the highest rates in the state, and a clear sign that Hampton Roads, like much of the state, is in play for the 2016 presidential election.

Rapid urbanization of major Virginia metropolitan areas — Hampton Roads, Richmond and Northern Virginia — has helped Democrats capitalize on local and national victories, the report finds.

"Not long ago, Virginia was predictably Republican in presidential elections," Kramer said. "But it's become competitive as it became younger and more racially and ethnically diverse, and as population shifted away from the rural parts of the state to Northern Virginia and the urban and suburban eastern half."

"President Obama's victories in Virginia in 2008 and 2012 suggest that the Democrats have built a new coalition of liberal voters in the Old Dominion," Kidd said. "Can they recreate that in 2016, or build a new one? And can the Republican nominee put together a new coalition large enough and energized enough to overcome the Democrats' recent success?"

Maybe, according to some political experts, but it's going to take some work.

A number of younger millennial voters fall within the Solid Liberal, Disengaged Liberal or Libertarian categories — with many nearly as unhappy with the direction of the country as Staunch Conservatives, according to the report.

[M]any undecided moderate and millennial voters have grown "disillusioned" with Obama over the last seven years, which could make it difficult for Democrats to maintain their growth in Virginia.  "They must find a way to recreate or fashion a new coalition," Kidd said. "The voter is disillusioned and that could come to the detriment of the party."

Republicans have a similar problem. If they nominate a right-wing social conservative, Kidd said, they risk losing millennial and moderate voters in Virginia.  "Young Libertarians are not attracted to socially conservative candidates," Kidd said.

"No one party can rely solely on its supporters to win Virginia," Kidd said. "If they do that, they lose."

. 

The GOP Fears Its Activist Base, Democrats Don’t

Since I left the Republican Party more than two decades ago, the party base has increasingly become a mix of rabid dog types in general, asylum escapees, blatant white supremacists and religious extremists.  It truly is a toxic mix and to stereotypical country club Republicans, the GOP base now looks more like the mob that stormed the palace of Versailles than people they would ever associate with.  And it likely explains why many in the GOP establishment are downright fearful of the GOP base.  Meanwhile, among Democrats, one does not see a terrified party establishment cowering before an insane party base.  A piece in the Washington Post looks at the phenomenon.  Here are highlights:

We’ve gotten so used to Republican infighting over the last few years that it would have been easy to forget that historically it’s the Democrats who have been the most consumed by internecine arguments. Over the weekend we got a reminder, as a group of protesters disrupted a forum at the Netroots Nation gathering of liberal activists where Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley were speaking. By all accounts, neither Sanders nor O’Malley handled it particularly well.

But if we look at this event in combination with what’s happening on the Republican side, we can see the stark differences in the relationship of each side’s base, its activists, and its candidates.

[T]he contrast with Republicans couldn’t be more stark. The Tea Party started just as much as a movement of self-styled outsiders, but unlike activists on the left, they pursued an inside strategy from the outset, one focused clearly on elections. They saw the path to achieving their goals running through Congress and the White House, and they all but took over their party by mounting successful primary challenges to Republican incumbents. How many prominent Democratic incumbents have faced the same kind of strong grassroots challenge from the left in recent years?

In contrast, Republican activists have gotten one prominent scalp after another, from incumbent senators like Richard Lugar and Bob Bennett to important House members like Eric Cantor. The result is that Republican politicians regard their base with barely-disguised terror. You can see it in how they’ve approached Donald Trump, a spectacular buffoon who has tied the party in knots. Even when he was saying one bigoted thing after another about the demographic group the party desperately needs if it’s ever to win back the White House, his opponents stepped gingerly around him, lest they offend his supporters. 

Even if Trump pulled out of the race tomorrow (sorry, Republicans, no such luck), the rest of the candidates would still operate from fear of their base, which means that activist conservatives will be able to extract commitments from the candidates on the issues that they care about. You can argue that in the long run this hurts the GOP by radicalizing the party and making its presidential candidates unelectable, and you’d probably be right, but in the short run, it probably feels to those conservative activists like success.

The situation on the Democratic side isn’t the same at all.