Why Republican Claims that Iran Deal is "Another Munich" Are All Wrong

Facts and objective reality mean nothing to the base of the Republican Party, especially the deranged Christofascist and Tea Party elements.  Now, they don't mean anything to a frightening number of GOP elected officials in Congress.  Nor does any form of knowledge of actual history.  Had Bush and Cheney and their neo-con advisers done even a small amount of historical review, they would have known that the Iraq War as they envisioned it was a fantasy.  Now, similar ignorance fuels the GOP claim that the Iran nuclear deal is another Munich, referring to the betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938 when Germany was ceded parts of that country with no demands or concessions in return.  A piece in Huffington Post looks at the false comparisons being made by Republican demagogues.  Here are highlights:

[T]he rhetorical matching of the Iran accord with the 1938 Munich conference doesn't withstand scrutiny. That Iran is not analogous to Munich is clear from the following:

First, Munich was about altering Europe's map. Vienna isn't about geographical changes; its focus is arms control, a subject not on the Munich agenda.

Second, at Munich, Hitler gave up nothing - no territory, no weapons. He successfully procured Czechoslovakia's dismemberment because the conferees agreed to force that nation to cede the Sudetenland to the Nazis. Czechoslovakia wasn't even a conference participant.

Third, the Munich conference didn't address the accelerating buildup of Germany's vast military machine whereas the Iran accord significantly reduces that country's capability to produce a nuclear weapon by requiring that it cease pursuing a plutonium bomb; that it redesign and rebuild the Arak reactor so it will not produce weapons-grade plutonium; that the original core of the reactor, which would enable the production of weapons-grade plutonium, be rendered inoperable. Furthermore, its spent fuel is to be shipped out of the country.

Finally, unlike Munich, which placed no international inspectors in Nazi-occupied territories, this agreement relies on an unprecedented level of intrusive international inspection, not on unverified trust that critics falsely assert is inherent in the deal. Iran agreed to international inspectors having access "to the entire supply chain that supports Iran's nuclear program" according to a presidential statement released in April. Tehran's acceding to this degree of foreign inspectors on its territory is neither a partial nor "a total cave" by our administration, as Kirk has foolishly said. Clearly, Wendy Sherman got a lot more from Iran's negotiators than Chamberlain got from Hitler!

It's been made clear that Washington's holding out for increased sanctions and/or requirements not tied to the nuclear weapons issue - which is what so many hardliners here were demanding -- would have cost us the support of our negotiating partners and likely doomed this diplomatic effort. Such a development would have isolated us from our partners, much as failure to join the League in 1920 isolated us from Europe, and it would have increased tensions in the Middle East much as our withdrawal 95 years ago helped direct the world toward another war. Iran would have resumed its nuclear ambitions unhindered by international law and the strong international alliance formed against it. 

July's Iran nuclear deal stands as one of the most significant foreign policy achievements of this or any recent administration. It rejects a Munich replication and builds on the lessons of Versailles while eliminating many of its pitfalls.

I suspect - or at least hope - that most Republicans know what actually happened at Munich and, like their Christofascist allies, are simply lying and hope that many Americans are simply too stupid to realize that they have been played for fools. 

Will A Regime Change Occur in Russia?

This blog often looks at the parallels between the misrule of Russian dictator and would be tsar, Vladimir Putin, and the lies and tactics used by Adolph Hitler in the lead up to World War II and the Holocaust.  Like Hitler, Putin uses claims of encirclement by a hostile west to play to the fears and xenophobia of the Russian people while seizing increased dictatorial powers for himself.  He has used the claim of protecting Russians living beyond Russia's borders as an excuse to invade Crimea and Ukraine akin to what Hitler did to justify invading Poland and Czechoslovakia.  And he has demonized gays much as Hitler demonized Jews.  While some fear that Putin may push the world to war, others think that Putin's demise may be approaching - a welcome prospect.  Here are excerpts from a op-ed in the New York Times:

Graham Allison, director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Dimitri K. Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest, warned of a growing risk of nuclear war. But they offered a contrasting explanation.

“When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia was on its knees,” they wrote. “But since Vladimir Putin took over in 1999, he has led a recovery of Russia’s sense of itself as a great power.”

These two strands of the Kremlin narrative — recovery on one hand; encirclement on the other — have been fashioned to appeal to the Russian people and used to justify more than 15 years of authoritarian rule. But both strands are suspect. In the early 1990s, Russians rose up against Soviet authoritarianism. The first — and last — popularly and fairly elected president, Boris N. Yeltsin, had a mandate to pursue the true national interest of catching up with the advanced, democratic West.

The situation in Ukraine now, after a popular uprising against a corrupt, authoritarian regime, resembles Russia then.

Tragically for Russia, from the mid-’90s an oligarchic bureaucracy monopolized oil and gas exports and has used the profits to purchase luxuries and homes in the West. The general population, meanwhile, has remained under the custody of a K.G.B.-style state security and propaganda apparatus.

For a decade, the rising price of oil provided soaring growth and veiled the inherent deficiency of the regime. In reality, Russia’s government is simply incompatible with the reforms needed for sustainable economic development, which demands liberalization and competitiveness.

When the petrodollar windfall dried up, that reality reasserted itself. Today, the nation is truly on its knees — beneath a leader who cannot be changed, and as hostage to the capricious price of oil and a gluttonous military-security complex.  

Sooner or later, economic hardship will awaken the people, too.

This year alone, Russians have suffered a 3 percent loss in real disposable income (6.4 percent year on year). In the 12 months to April, exports — vital for providing foreign currency — fell 33.9 percent, and imports shrank 40.8 percent. The outlook is very poor.

Like their Soviet predecessors, the Kremlin’s present rulers see the example of the democratic West, above all the United States, as a threat. Instead of preaching a Communist-style supremacy, most realize that their regime will be uncompetitive in the long run. Yet the oligarchs cling to power as long as possible through intimidation and disinformation, seeking to undermine Western norms, from human rights to business transparency and international law.

 

[T]he potential of American soft power and leadership, together with a strong response from European countries and Ukraine, is far from exhausted. Economic sanctions have bitten, magnifying the regime’s inefficiency.

The firmness of the West in protecting the sovereignty of Ukraine and restoring its territorial integrity is a prerequisite not only to rein in the Kremlin’s aggressive impulses, but also to engage Russia in a constructive dialogue on a broad agenda.

Regime change in Russia is inevitable, maybe imminent. But the West should not bet on that eventuality or make it a policy goal. The Russian people will rise up again, but the path to a sustainable democracy and stable economy will be challenging. The West should be ready to help then.

What the Western democracies must do now, for Russia and for themselves, is prove that they will defend their values and international law.

I hope the author is correct and that Putin's days in power will soon end - for the good of Russia and the world.  Putin is but the latest in Russia's failed dictators who have held the country back and harmed the Russian people.

Putin Makes His Czechoslovakia Move

At the risk of beating a dead horse, previous predictions that Vladimir Putin was following the game plan Adolph Hitler used to justify Nazi Germany's move into Czechoslovakia in 1938 now have been substantiated.  NATO officials are reporting that Russian military forces are operating inside Ukraine's borders.  While Barack Obama has refrained from calling the move an invasion, it is hard to know what else to call it.  Russian military are inside the country without permission and taking armed action against Ukraine's forces.  The whole situation is a frightening case of repeating itself and one wonders if the west and NATO will respond with appeasement as happened 76 years ago.  The New York Times comments on Putin's lies and dangerous aggression.  Here are excerpts:

The evidence has been mounting for some time, but there is no longer any doubt: Russian troops are in Ukraine, not as volunteers, as the rebel commander in Donetsk would have the world believe, but in units equipped with mobile artillery and heavy military equipment.

A senior NATO officer reported on Thursday that the alliance had monitored a “significant escalation” in Russia’s military “interference” in Ukraine, and that well over 1,000 Russian soldiers are operating inside the southeast of the country. The officer, Brig. Gen. Nico Tak, called it “interference,” presumably because “invasion” would mean an all-out military assault. But, by any name, it is a large and unacceptable escalation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

[A]mbassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, was more blunt in her address Thursday to the Security Council, where she described Russia’s actions as “a deliberate effort to support, and now fight alongside, illegal separatists in another sovereign country.” That should be the reality guiding Mr. Obama when he meets with NATO allies in Wales next week.

NATO suspects the Russian goal is to prevent a military defeat of the rebels and freeze the conflict in an open-ended cease-fire, with Russia left in effective control of Ukraine’s industrial heartland, following the template of Russia’s frozen conflicts with Moldova and Georgia. But Russia’s motive is not the issue here. It is Russia’s violation of a cardinal principle of the international order since World War II — states do not seize territory by force.

Mr. Putin has played his dangerous game in Ukraine with cunning and deceit since the ouster in February of the corrupt Viktor Yanukovych lost him a Ukrainian president he could manipulate. First he annexed Crimea outright. Shocking and outrageous as that was, at least no blood was shed; Mr. Putin claimed that history and a Russian population as justification for that seizure. The Western reaction was limited to modest sanctions.

After the rebels shot down a Malaysian jetliner with a Russian missile, and after Kiev made gains against the rebels, Russia’s involvement became more overt, with reports of artillery fire across the border, armored columns crossing into Ukraine and Russian soldiers caught or killed inside Ukraine. The United States and the European Union ratcheted up the sanctions, but Mr. Putin continued to deny any involvement. He will no doubt deny the latest evidence as well, and will cynically claim some Ukrainian or Western plot.

Comments from European leaders on Thursday showed they recognize the danger of this moment. European Union leaders meeting on Saturday must join the United States in expanding the economic sanctions. France should seriously reconsider delivering the Mistral assault ships it has sold Russia. And when NATO leaders gather next week, they should give strong reassurances to NATO members along Russia’s borders that they will be protected should Moscow turn its attentions on them.

Appeasing bullies only makes them increase their bad behavior.  The disaster of the 1930's ought to remind all involved of this reality. 

Russian Troops Cross Ukraine Border To Open New Front

As the world remains distracted by the atrocities being commuted by ISIS and at home many eyes remain focused on racial unrest in Ferguson, Missouri, Vladimir Putin continues to follow Adolph Hitler's model of how a nation invades another sovereign nation under the guise of "humanitarian relief" and protecting those of the same ethnic background as the invaders.  Huffington Post looks at Putin's continued flouting of international law as he gambles that the West will allow him to mimic Hitler's move into Czechoslovakia in the late 1930's.  Here are highlights:

Ukraine accused Russia on Monday of sending soldiers across the border to open a new front in the separatist war that has devastated the east of the country and provoked the gravest East-West crisis since the fall of communism.

The charge, dismissed by Moscow, dealt a blow to already slim hopes of progress at talks on Tuesday towards ending the conflict between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian troops, in which more than 2,000 people have been killed.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who is due to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin in the Belarussian capital of Minsk, expressed "extraordinary concern" at the Russian move, his press service said, setting the scene for a possibly angry encounter.

The Ukrainian military said a group of Russian forces, in the guise of separatist rebels, had crossed into south-east Ukraine with 10 tanks and two armored infantry vehicles. It said border guards had halted the column outside Novoazovsk, Ukraine's most south-easterly point on the Azov Sea.

With the rebels largely encircled in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine has been pressing its advance while its Western allies have waited nervously to see if Moscow will intervene to prevent the separatists being crushed.

NATO said last week that Russian forces had been firing artillery both within Ukraine and across the border, but Moscow has consistently denied taking part in the fighting or supplying weapons to the separatists.

Putin Continues to Mimic Adolph Hitler

Perhaps it's because I was a history major, but I am constantly shocked at how so many from politicians to average citizens seemingly know nothing about history and cannot see patterns from the past in current events.  One case in point is the parallels between Adolph Hitler's policies toward Czechoslovakia in the late 1930's and what is happening in eastern Ukraine now under the scheming  of Vladimir Putin.   Here are snippets from Wikipedia on what happened in the 1930's:

The German occupation of Czechoslovakia (1938–1945) began with the Nazi annexation of Czechoslovakia's northern and western border regions, known collectively as the Sudetenland, under terms outlined by the Munich Agreement. German leader Adolf Hitler's pretext for this effort was the alleged privations suffered by the ethnic German population living in those regions.

"I am asking neither that Germany be allowed to oppress three and a half million Frenchmen, nor am I asking that three and a half million Englishmen be placed at our mercy. Rather I am simply demanding that the oppression of three and a half million Germans in Czechoslovakia cease and that the inalienable right to self-determination take its place."—Adolf Hitler's speech at the NSDAP Congress 1938

The Czechs, Hitler claimed, were slaughtering the Sudeten Germans. 

Hitler used a Nazi supported "political party" inside Czechoslovakia to generate claims of mistreatment and calls for German intervention.  Sound familiar?  Fast forward three quarters of a century and we see Vladimir Putin mimicking Adolph Hitler  to a frightening degree.  Does no one recall where appeasement by the West can lead?  A piece in The Daily Beast looks at Russia's ongoing mischief making in Ukraine.  Here are highlights:

The new pro-Moscow leader in the breakaway republic of Donetsk bragged openly today that Russia has strengthened his besieged rebel forces with men, armored vehicles and tanks. His boast would appear to confirm Ukrainian claims that the Kremlin is stepping up backing for the insurgents, defying the West with a dangerous escalation of the conflict Russian President Vladimir Putin said midweek he hoped would end soon.

Alexander Zaharchenko, who was appointed “prime minister” of the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic earlier this week, told The Daily Beast that the rebels have received reinforcements from across the border, and specified in an interview with Russian radio station that “1,200 men trained in Russia have joined his force and that separatists have received also 120 armored personnel carriers and 30 tanks.”

It remains unclear whether this was the military column British reporters saw  crossing the border at the dead of night Thursday near Izvarino, or whether this was a separate column.

Kremlin officials deny they dispatched any column across the border on Thursday, slamming the allegation as fantasy.

[I]n recent days there has been a growing swagger to rebel fighters in Donetsk, even if they remain twitchy under the barrage of Ukrainian government artillery shelling. Zaharchenko on Friday night projected defiance rather than bravado, no doubt buoyed by the Moscow-sent materiel and fighters.

Anyone gullible - should I say stupid? - enough to believe a word coming out of Putin's mouth seriously needs to do a quick brush up on their history of the late 1930's.  Hitler got away with his lies and aggression for a time and was initially supported by many Germans.  Russians would likewise be wise to relearn history about Hitler and then take a good look at what Putin is doing.  Things ultimately ended badly for Germany and the same could well be the case with Russia.

A Russian convoy inside Ukraine