The Growing Urban-Rural Divide: Is the GOP Paying Attention?

 

As the recent Virginia statewide elections demonstrated, rural voters are increasingly out numbered by urban voters and while the GOP's "God, guns and gays" and demonizing of the nation's first non-white president may play well in the hinterland, the game plan is falling flat in urban areas.  And urban area populations are increasing even as rural populations drop in many states.  Yet, like in so many other things, the GOP seems to be ignoring the hand writing on the wall in terms of what this means for the party's long term viability.  A piece in Bloomberg looks at the fact that all of America's largest cities are now governed by mayors who are Democrats.  Here are excerpts:

Twenty years ago, half the 12 largest U.S. municipalities had a Republican mayor. When Bill de Blasio takes office in New York on Jan. 1, none will.

As middle-class residents moved out of cities and immigrants and young people replaced them, the party lost its grip on population centers even as it increased control of governor’s offices and legislatures. The polarization has pitted urban interests against rural areas and suburbs, denying Republicans a power base. 

“The New York election hopefully is somewhat of a wake-up call,” said Scott Smith, the Republican mayor of Mesa, Arizona, and president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors. “If that doesn’t get Republicans on the national level more interested, then it should.” 

De Blasio’s election means that besides New York, there will be Democratic mayors next year in Los Angeles; Chicago; Houston; Philadelphia; Phoenix; San Antonio; Dallas; San Jose, California; Austin, Texas; and Jacksonville, Florida.

In all but three of the dozen most populous cities, mayoral elections are nonpartisan and candidates’ affiliations don’t appear on the ballot. Yet their party is often known to voters. 

Racial and ethnic minorities that overwhelmingly support Democrats accounted for 83 percent of U.S. population growth from 2000 to 2008, with most living in the largest metro areas, according to Brookings’s 2010 “State of Metropolitan America” report. And cities themselves are growing. Between 1950 and 2010, the proportion of Americans living in urban areas increased to 80.7 percent from 64 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Voters selecting mayors care most about who can do the job, and national Republicans are more focused on dogma, said Mayor Greg Ballard in Indianapolis, the most populous U.S. city run by a Republican. 

“If they campaign or govern with a basis in ideology, they’re going to fail,” said Ballard, a 59-year-old former Marine who has supported mass transit and opposed a ban on same-sex marriage. “Being a mayor is about getting things done, and I do wish a few more people understood that.” 

The divide is dramatic in places such as Texas, where Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin are run by Democrats while the state as a whole is reliably Republican. 

“Not only do people have different views, but they don’t even see the other people,” Kotkin said by phone. “Having a one-party system is just not a very good way to get to the best policy.”