Marijuana
is shaping up to be the new gay marriage of GOP politics — most Republicans
would rather not talk about it, except to punt to the states.
But
when it comes to the 2016 presidential race, a series of legalization ballot
initiatives — and a certain outspoken Kentucky
senator — could make it harder for the
Republican field to avoid the conversation.
When asked to articulate their
positions on recreational marijuana, several potential GOP 2016 candidates have
tried to strike a tricky balance: stress the downsides of pot use and the
upsides of states’ rights. Some have indicated their openness to
decriminalizing pot, at least in their state, but none favors outright
legalization.
Marijuana may not stimulate the same kind of passion as the debate over
same-sex marriage. Still, a majority of
Americans support legalizing pot, and young people — who tend to turn out more
for presidential elections than midterms — are especially keen on it.
The “leave it to the states” stance
allows potential GOP candidates to stake out a relatively safe middle ground
between an older conservative base that disapproves of marijuana use and a
general-election electorate and libertarian wing that prefers legalization. The
states’ rights approach also allows GOP candidates to express some openness to
medical marijuana and criminal justice reform and argue against devoting costly
resources for federal enforcement.
At
least five states are preparing to vote on legalization of recreational
marijuana in 2016 — Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada. There are efforts to put the issue on ballots in Florida,
Missouri and Montana. Colorado, Washington state, Oregon and Alaska already
have voted to legalize recreational marijuana, as has Washington, D.C.
President
Barack Obama’s administration
has basically tried to avoid what’s becoming a murky legal issue. The Justice
Department announced in 2013 that it wouldn’t block recreational and medical
marijuana in states that adopted legalization measures; while a federal
cannabis ban remains, the administration has
largely opted not to enforce it in states that have voted to legalize.
Some advocates have downplayed the
parallels between same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization. While
recreational cannabis has found its success on the ballot, gay marriage has
been decided mostly in state legislatures and courts.
Still, both movements have
successfully used state-based models, increasing pressure for federal action.
The Supreme Court will decide later this year whether same-sex marriage is a
constitutional right.
One Republican outspoken on
marijuana is Paul, who has made major overtures to young people and minorities.
The Kentucky senator, a favorite in the GOP’s libertarian wing, is the
highest-profile Republican to support federal decriminalization and the party’s
only potential presidential candidate to do so.
“I
don’t want to put our kids in prison for it,” Paul said of marijuana in
December. “So if your kid was caught selling
marijuana or growing enough that it’s a felony conviction, they could be in
jail for an extended period of time. They also lose their ability to be
employable. So I want to change all of that.”
The
senator’s stance could prove a vexing problem not just for fellow Republicans
but also Hillary Clinton. The likely Democratic 2016 frontrunner has been
relatively quiet on the issue, asking for a “wait and see” approach to the experiments in Colorado and Washington state and
offering some support for medical marijuana.
Although
most Americans support marijuana legalization, just 39 percent of Republicans
and 31 percent of conservatives do, according to a recent Gallup poll. Another
survey shows that 16 percent of Republicans in Iowa, the first presidential
nominating state, favor legalization.
The GOP’s internal struggle over the
issue is playing out in Congress, where a group of Republicans — led by House
Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers of Kentucky and Rep. Andy Harris
of Maryland — pushed for a provision included in the December $1.01 trillion
spending bill that aims to stop the marijuana legalization measure passed in
Washington, D.C.