Randy Forbes to Change Districts to Save His Job

I have known 4th District Congressman Randy Forbes for almost 40 years and the man has gotten crazier and more of a religious extremist with every passing year.  Now, with his district redrawn to undo some of the GOP gerrymandering of Virgina's congressional districts, Forbes has announced that he will physically move his residence and run for the 2nd District seat being vacated by Scott Rigell.  It apparently never crossed Forbes' mind that he could be competitive in the redrawn 4th District if he shed some of his right wing Christian lunacy and focused on issues that matter to voters outside of knuckle dragging Christofascist circles.  One can only hope that the Democrats find a strong candidate to challenge Forbes who is not well known in the 2nd District outside of Republican circles.  A Virginian Pilot editorial takes some shots at Forbes.  Here are excerpts:

U.S. REP. RANDY Forbes announced Monday that he’s running for Congress again. But after 15 years in Virginia’s 4th District, Forbes is jumping to the 2nd Congressional District, based in Virginia Beach. He said he’s seeking the seat U.S. Rep. Scott Rigell is vacating to keep the power of a House Armed Services subcommittee in the hands of a Virginian.

In his announcement, he never mentioned that he’s abandoning the Chesapeake district he’s represented since 2001 — the district where he was born and grew up — to have a better chance of remaining in Congress.

He didn’t mention that the district that was drawn specifically for him in 2002 — a district so solidly Republican that Forbes has had only token opposition in his re-election bids — has been redrawn by the federal courts and is now more Democratic.

The conservative congressman, who touts his protection for the unborn, his A rating from the NRA and his stands for religious liberty as important identifiers, would have a hard time defending his record successfully in the redrawn 4th. He’d also have to defend his sponsorship of only one piece of successful legislation: To rename a post office.

This effort at self-preservation is why drawing districts for Congress and the General Assembly should be the responsibility of an independent commission, not lawmakers seeking to maintain jobs for themselves and their political allies. State lawmakers drew a safe seat for Forbes in 2002 and again in 2012 by packing African American voters from Richmond to Norfolk into the 3rd Congressional District.

The Conservative Review describes Forbes this way: “Forbes is primarily a backbencher, except when it comes to national security issues, which are his passion. ... He is also a leading voice warning against the rise of China as a global power. He formed and chairs the Congressional China Caucus which studies the rise of China.”

Forbes’ legislative battles and abiding passion have centered on social issues, an unnecessary and divisive distraction in a Congress marked by its inability to do anything constructive.

With the courts’ redrawn districts, Forbes had an opportunity to defend the record he’s compiled in his home district and the clout he’s accumulated. Instead of fighting for what he believes in, Forbes fled next door.

I hope Forbes' gambit fails and that he is voted out of office in November.  Hampton Roads needs a serious, objective reality accepting member of congress.  That doesn't describe Forbes.

The GOP's Future Shock

The Supreme Court rulings this week upholding Obamacare, the Fair Housing Act and, most of all, the marriage ruling, all demonstrate how the Republican Party is increasingly out of step - and wholly out of touch with - the rapid changes occurring in American society.  While the GOP and its shrinking base continue to seek to drag the country back to the 1950's on social and racial issues and to the Gilded Age economically, the majority of Americans are moving on into the 21st century and a different America.  I continue to be dumbstruck by the GOP's apparent desire to engage in a slow form of suicide.  Spittle flecked reactions to the marriage ruling will likely only accelerate the exodus of Millennials from the GOP.  A piece in Politico looks at the GOP's inability to change in the face of a new reality.  Here are excerpts:

In a week of painstakingly drafted Supreme Court decisions, no literary effort was crafted more gingerly than Jeb Bush’s statement following the high court’s 5-to-4 endorsement of same-sex marriage rights on Friday.

First, the former Florida governor paid homage to his beliefs and to evangelical political orthodoxy. “Guided by my faith, I believe in traditional marriage,” he wrote.

Then, he quickly pivoted to the more popular political center: “I also believe that we should love our neighbor and respect others, including those making lifetime commitments. In a country as diverse as ours, good people who have opposing views should be able to live side by side.”

[I]t revealed a maneuvering, modern conservative worried about his party being caught on the wrong side of history – whatever his personal view of the issue.

Democrats, and many other Americans of varying political stripes enjoyed a feel-good national moment, but the GOP wasn’t invited to the party – Republicans were worrying about how to keep from being trampled by the accelerating gallop of 21st-century social change.

“In the state of Nevada, you can get married to a hooker who you met at the bar 30 minutes after meeting her with a blood alcohol level of 3.2 by an Elvis at a drive-through,” said Steve Schmidt, who managed the 2008 presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain. “At the end of the day, it’s an untenable position to be against ultimately millions of actual Americans’ marriages and commitments.”

Democrats are delighted at the growing roster of issues pulling the GOP backward through time. Last week, Southern Republicans were stunned by the wave of public, bipartisan sentiment against state-sanctioned displays of the Confederate flag in the wake of the Charleston massacre. After a stumbling start, local Republicans acted with deliberate speed, and not just in South Carolina: Alabama’s Robert Bentley, one of the country’s most conservative governors, ordered the rebel battle flag lowered over the capitol in Montgomery, where the civil war was declared and George Wallace delivered his “segregation forever” speech.”

Still, many standard-issue Republican positions, though they remain regional political assets in the South and parts of the Midwest, are underwater: The GOP’s blanket opposition to minimum-wage hikes, a more open immigration policy, and background checks on guns and lockstep support for tough anti-abortion laws and tax breaks for the wealthy all poll relatively poorly.

“The problem for the Republican Party is that you have a recalcitrant minority trying to hold off a tolerant majority,” says David Boaz of the libertarian Cato Institute. “The increased salience of social issues is a challenge for Republicans. . . . most of the [top-tier] candidates will try to avoid these issues. But the ones who aren’t at that level, they are going to keep bringing them back.”

For the moment, the most unifying default position for Republicans is to blame the Roberts Court for the Obamacare and marriage decisions, even though evangelicals played a critical role in winning the appointments of its ostensibly conservative majority.

[T]he demands of the GOP debate and primary process are sure to drag everyone to the right – because white, religious-minded, social conservatives participate in disproportionate numbers. By wedging moderate New Hampshire between social conservative bastions like Iowa and New Hampshire, Republican presidential candidates are forced into rhetorical contortions that muddy their messages and force them to mix conservative nostalgia with a wink to trending, moderate undercurrents.

[T]he demands of the GOP debate and primary process are sure to drag everyone to the right – because white, religious-minded, social conservatives participate in disproportionate numbers. By wedging moderate New Hampshire between social conservative bastions like Iowa and New Hampshire, Republican presidential candidates are forced into rhetorical contortions that muddy their messages and force them to mix conservative nostalgia with a wink to trending, moderate undercurrents.

It’s really under 40-over 40. Under-40 Republicans support the ruling,” said Steve Schmidt, who thinks Walker should drop his marriage amendment idea for the sake of the party.

“Support for gay marriage is not going to start suddenly contracting now that it’s legal everywhere,” he added. “This will be the last presidential election where you have Republicans trapped into the positions they have on this issue because it’s no longer a political issue. This is a settled issue now.”

As I have argued for a long time now, the GOP will continue to move toward a minority party status until such time as the knuckle dragging, ignorance embracing  Christofascists are forced from power.  The establishment needs to reject the myth that evangelicals will stay home if bigotry and dog whistle racism do not remain planks in the GOP platform and belatedly move into the 21st century.  

 

Gay Marriage: The New Liberal Wedge Issue?

In 2004, George W. Bush and his slimy adviser, Karl Rove, used gay marriage as a wedge issue to turn out the knuckle dragging elements of the GOP base and the Christian Right.  Fast forward 12 years and some believe that gay marriage can again be a wedge issue, but this time for liberals and progressives.   If this is true, the Republican candidate for the White House - and various other offices - may find himself trapped between the demands of the spittle flecked Christofascists in the GOP and the rest of the electorate that has done a 180 degree turn on the issue.  A piece in The Daily Beast looks at this premise, which, if true, would be sweet indeed.  Here are excerpts:

Gallup has just found that on social issues, the country is now equally split between liberals and conservatives. The question was: “Thinking about social issues, would you say your views are” very conservative, conservative, liberal, or very liberal? . . . Just five years ago, the conservative edge on social issues was 39 to 22 percent. Now it’s totally wiped out. The implications for our electoral politics are obvious and enormous, and I mean good-enormous.

Gay marriage was a great wedge issue for Dubya and Rove in 2004, as you’ll recall. They got anti-gay marriage initiatives on the ballot in 11 states, many of them key swing states; studies have tended to find that in Ohio, which Bush carried and which was the difference between victory and defeat in the Electoral College, the initiative did goose evangelical turnout a bit . . . 

Well, in 2016, same-sex marriage can be a wedge issue again, but this time, for our team. The numbers are now so decisive that surely in the key swing states with the bushels of electoral votes, the likely Democratic candidate can cast shame upon the head of her opponent. In Florida, support for gay marriage was 57 percent a year ago, and it’s probably a little higher now. In Ohio, support-to-opposition was 52-37 in 2012, and that’s surely higher now. In Virginia in 2013, support registered at 56 percent. The issue isn’t a loser in any important swing state, with the possible exception of North Carolina, which of course is just icing for the Democrats anyway.

How could Hillary Clinton and her party use this, exactly? That gets a little harder to say. The thing that makes a wedge issue a wedge issue is that, historically anyway, it’s been about fear. The blacks are coming. The gays are coming. The anti-gun nuts are going to be pounding on your door, warrant in hand. As has often been said, it’s the best motivator in politics.

So, what are people (not just liberals, but average, quasi-informed people) thinking about conservatives right now? I’d suggest it’s that they’re just out of it. Out of touch with the times. Holding us back.

Certainly this is so with respect to same-sex marriage, although the problem is hardly limited to that by a long shot. One issue I’d really love to see Clinton and the Democrats plop down smack in the middle of the table this election is the way conservatism today just strangles opportunity for middle-class people, and for young people in particular, in the name of their messianic tax-cutting.

TPM ran a great piece Friday on how the Republican governors who are running for president are destroying their higher education systems in the name of cutting state income taxes and never, ever raising another tax of any kind. Bobby Jindal has cut taxes six times in Louisiana, which has produced a $1.6 billion shortfall. To plug the gap, he’s cutting higher ed funding by as much as $600 million, which is 82 percent of state higher-ed aid. Scott Walker’s half-a-billion dollars in tax cuts in Wisconsin have led to a $2 billion shortfall, so he’s slashing higher ed by $300 million.

These, too, are wedge issues, if you ask me. Republicans send their kids to college too. Yes, they like their tax cuts. But I would assume that they don’t like whopping tuition hikes, or their kids having to drop out of college altogether, any more than Democrats or independents do.

If the Democrats can connect these dots in the right way—on this and a whole range of Warrenesque “household economics” issues—they can peel off a decent chunk of voters who have been traditionally Republican. 

Republicans will still roll out their wedge issues, but it seems that the pickings are pretty slim. Fear just isn’t selling.  . . . fear just doesn’t travel well anymore outside the right-wing base. Muslim-bashing may be the exception to that, but even that won’t work without a triggering event of some kind. Republicans might actually have to talk about issues. Which of course is even worse for them.

Is Virginia Becoming a Liberal State?

Ralph Northam and Mark Herring

Currently, all of Virginia's state wide elected officials are Democrats and all of them publicly support same sex marriage and oppose the Christofacsists' agenda.   The Virginia GOP, however, continues to push it same tired agenda from 30 or more years ago even as the urban population centers grow and the backward rural areas decline.  Some argue that the stage is being set for Virginia to become a liberal state notwithstanding the presence of bastions of lunacy like Liberty University and Pat Robertson's reality free Christian Broadcasting Network.  A piece in the National Journal looks at what is trending in Virginia.  Here are excerpts:

As two of Virginia's top Democrats weigh running for governor in 2017, potentially against each other, they are embracing traditionally liberal issues in a way that would have been politically toxic just years ago in the Upper South state.

The bet that both Attorney General Mark Herring and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam are making is not only that the strongest possible progressive record would help win a Democratic primary, but that it will also help in the general election. Nationally, Democrats have grown emboldened on cultural issues over the past few years, and Virginia—where demographic shifts have widened their path to victory through diversified, left-leaning urban and suburban regions—might be the place feeling that trend most acutely.

Northam already has said he'll run, but Herring (who has not announced his plans) has attracted national attention since taking office for a series of actions derided as "activist" by Virginia conservatives. The attorney general declined to defend the state's gay marriage ban in court, interpreted that Virginia law qualified children of some undocumented immigrants for lower in-state college tuition rates, and filed a brief supporting President Obama's 2014 executive order on immigration.

Herring has described his moves as positioning the state "on the right side of history and the right side of the law." And Herring's embrace of positions that would have been unthinkable for past generations of Virginia Democrats is nothing new.

Even Republicans admit the tide has shifted, to a point. "There's absolutely been a change in Virginia," said Tucker Martin, a former communications director for Gov. Bob McDonnell.
"There used to be a distinction between 'Virginia Democrats' and national Democrats, and that of course was the [Mark] Warner model of 2001 when he ran for governor," Martin continued. "It was all about 'I'm a Virginia Democrat.' That distinction has been erased."

Northam, the Democratic lieutenant governor, lacks the inherent visibility and responsibility associated with the attorney general's office. (State law bars current Gov. Terry McAuliffe from seeking another consecutive term.) But Northam too intends to highlight his record on progressive issues as he lays the groundwork for 2017.

When discussing Northam's qualifications for a promotion, Northam political adviser Brad Komar is quick to highlight the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking state Senate votes to repeal Virginia's mandatory ultrasound law for women seeking abortions, increase the minimum wage, and enact a LGBT employment non-discrimination law.

Herring and Northam may not end up running against each other in a primary—they are close personal friends who shared a desk during their years in the state Senate. But their aggressive compilation of progressive goals over the last few years hints at a new model for Democratic success in Virginia.

Will the Virginia GOP get the message that god, guns and gays are no longer winning issues?  Not as long as the Virginia GOP continues to prostitute itself The Family Foundation, an anti-gay hate group with strong white supremacist undercurrents.

Thinking Republicans: Leave the Hillary E-mail Story Alone

Hillary Clinton is said to be going to address the issue of her use of private e-mail while secretary of state later this week.  Needless to say, many Republicans are salivating and ready to rush in and launch endless spittle flecked attacks. Calmer heads - admittedly a rare commodity in today's GOP - are cautioning against doing exactly what the Tea Party crowd and rabid Clinton haters are anxious to do.  A piece in Politico looks at how haste may undo any advantage otherwise flowing to the GOP.  Here are excerpts:

As the unfolding Clinton email story plays out, I have some simple counsel for my friends in Congress, the conservative movement and right-leaning opinion media: Stop talking unless and until you have a plan. Better to go dark than play this game by the Clinton Rules.

Hillary really put a wrench in the media’s plans this week. After eagerly cheerleading Barack Obama for eight years, they stood ready to help break the ultimate glass ceiling and play their role as part of the uncritical chorus of Hillary Clinton’s coronation, first as the Democratic nominee then as President. It’s why they hate this story.

The Clintons know we’re only at the end of the beginning of this story and the national security, legal and political implications for Hillary will get worse. The Clintons are depending on their old skills at manipulating the press and hoping the GOP and conservatives will save her by mishandling their response as badly as she’s mishandling hers.

While the media’s passive “attention span” excuse du jour is real, many in the press are possessed of a boundless ideological desire to change the subject right now. That’s why the press is waiting breathlessly for (and in some cases, actively trolling for) Republicans to blow it. An intemperate remark from Congressman Jackass would fit the bill perfectly. Don’t be the squirrel. Don’t give them a shiny object. Don’t give them an excuse to turn this into “Krazee Republicans Sure Hate Hillary Because She’s a Woman.” 

For God’s sake, candidates, take a deep breath and skip talking about your favorite social issue for just a few days. The media is desperate for another riff on evolution or vaccines or gay marriage or prison sex from a GOP contender so they can turn their undivided attention to the Republicans.

[U]nless GOP elected and opinion leaders are smart and subtle, and execute with the right timing and tone, she wins. Try for once to play the long game and help Hillary Clinton take on water.

It’s vital to have a plan, to execute it with discipline and proceed against Clinton with a measured pace and tone. Speak more in sorrow than in anger. Don’t make it all about Benghazi (they’re expecting that) or the record-keeping laws (boring). Touch on those selectively, but focus instead on the grave national security risks that her amateur-hour email server shenanigan posed and more broadly what this says about the Clinton culture.

Avoid making wild claims about either the substance or political outcomes of investigations. Reduce expectations, rather than raise them. Don’t let one single member of Congress or leader be the only face in the room; the Clintons love to demonize a single target, so vary your portfolio. Be persistent. Be serious. Be smart.

Being smart, of course, is an oxymoron when used in the context of today's GOP.  Will this advice be heeded?  I will not be holding my breath.  The Congressional Republicans' letter to Iran is already a good start for changing the topic.  They truly never learn. 

Pro-Warner Super Pac Slams Sleazy Ed Gillespie

Things are heating up in the Mark Warner v. Ed Gillespie race for the U.S. Senate.  Gillespie has been running disingenuous ads and trying to deceive Virginians into believing that he's offering something new instead of the same failed GOP economics of the last 30 plus years (as well as the GOP's anti-woman, anti-gay, and anti-minority platform).  Of even more concern is his preference for speaking to elements of the GOP base in gatherings from which the press is barred, suggesting that Gillespie is spouting statements like Mitt Romney's 47% statement that helped immolate Romney's campaign.  In return Mark Warner has run fairly tame ads.  Thankfully, a super PAC is hitting Gillespie hard and underscoring his sleazy past.  The Richmond Times Dispatch looks at the ad war (it's noteworthy that Warner supporters are major players in the business community which Gillespie claims to represent and suggests that Gillespie, like Ken Cuccinelli, is too extreme on social issues).  Here are excerpts:

As Ed Gillespie, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, teamed up with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to tap into wealthy Republican donors at a private fundraiser in McLean on Wednesday,
Sen. Mark R. Warner is getting outside help from prominent Democratic backers.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt; Janice Brandt, vice chair of America Online/Time Warner; and investment banker Mark J. Kington each have contributed $100,000 to Virginia Progress, an independent super PAC that had raised $1.7 million by June 30 to back Warner’s re-election bid.

Virginia Progress has spent $1.4 million in TV ads this election season to oppose Gillespie, according to the Federal Election Commission. 

Some political analysts interpret the super PAC’s spending as an indication that Virginia’s Senate race may be closer than the polls suggest — most have Warner up by a comfortable lead over Gillespie.

But Larry Sabato, head of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said there is no objective indication that the contest is especially close.

“I see no evidence that it is being treated as such by GOP groups,” Sabato said. Warner campaign spokesman David Turner said the campaign would not comment as Virginia Progress is an independent PAC.

As of June 30, the most recent reporting deadline, Warner’s campaign has raised $9.9 million and had $8.9 million cash on hand. Gillespie had raised$4.2 million with $3.1 million in cash.

Democrats Seize on Social Issues as Attitudes Shift

As the Republican Party becomes more and more racist and extreme on social issues, Democrats are finding that the social issues that the GOP has used as a dog whistle for religious extremists and white supremacists can be a useful tool to rally the Democrat base as more and more decent Americans have shifted their views on minorities, gays and other issues.  While GOP policies remain focused on stirring hate and division, more and more of us are finding ourselves the target of such hate and are saying "Enough!".   An article in the New York Times looks at the way in which so-called social issues are beginning to bomerang on Republicans.  Here are some excerpts:

Facing re-election, Gov. Scott Walker, Republican of Wisconsin, no longer talks about stopping same-sex marriage. “It’s those on the left that are pushing” the issue, he says.

Ed Gillespie, the Republican Senate candidate in Virginia, argued that Senator Mark Warner, the Democratic incumbent, was “making up my views” when Mr. Warner accused him of seeking to overturn abortion rights and ban some forms of contraception. In fact, Mr. Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman, said in a recent debate, he wants contraceptives available (behind the counter) at pharmacies without a prescription.

“Udall is running his entire campaign on social issues,” said Brad Dayspring of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “All they talk about is birth control, ‘personhood,’ abortion.”

So will many other Democrats this fall. They aim to match President Obama’s feat in 2012, when the incumbent used topics such as same-sex marriage and contraception as weapons to offset his vulnerability on the economy. That they would even try while facing the older, whiter, more conservative midterm electorate shows how thoroughly the politics of social issues have turned upside down.

Now the values wedge cuts for Democrats. Demographic change keeps shrinking Nixon’s “Silent Majority.” . . . . American households have changed significantly. Nearly half of adults are unmarried. Fully 10 percent of opposite-sex married couples are interracial or interethnic. Acceptance of same-sex marriage has expanded with astonishing speed.

Democrats profit politically — among young voters, college graduates, single women, blacks and Latinos — from the sense that they welcome these cultural shifts while Republicans resist them.

“That’s why people are voting for us these days — not for our economic prowess,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster. “They all reflect an underlying attitude. It’s openness, it’s tolerance, it’s respect for others and who they are.”

A recent Pew Research Center study highlighted how the Republican base diverges from majority opinion and experience. Members of a category Pew calls “steadfast conservatives,” mirroring Tea Party Republicans, attend church more often than any other group. More than half of them have guns in their homes, compared with one-third of the population over all.

Only 18 percent of staunch conservatives say society should accept homosexuality, compared with 62 percent overall; 16 percent believe society is “just as well off” if people have priorities other than marriage and children, compared with 50 percent over all; and 28 percent favor legalization of marijuana, compared with 54 percent over all.

While 61 percent of the population says the globe is warming, three in four staunch conservatives see “no solid evidence.”

As Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, put it, “I still wake up in disbelief at the transformation that’s taken place.”

The GOP's embrace of ignorance, haters and bigots will ultimately be its down fall.  That fall cannot come soon enough for some of us.