Is Virginia a Microcosm of the 2012 Election?

Things are changing in Virginia albeit at a snails pace in many ways - especially in the area of gay rights.  Sadly, the backwards and ignorant rural areas of the state and Kool-Aid drinking Christianist orchestrated by the the theocrats at The Family Foundation still control the puppet strings of the Republican Party of Virginia.  The result has been legislative action by the General Assembly that looks like a Christian version of the Talban's agenda.  The shifts in population will hopefully change this dynamic over time as the urban areas grow and can simply out vote the reactionary elements in the rural areas of the state.  A piece in Politico looks at how this may play out in the 2012 presidential contest.  Here are highlights:

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics has published a good primer on the electoral geography of Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina, and neatly crystallizes the sense among national operatives that the state has become a bellwether for the country as a whole:

Of the state's 13% growth in population between 2000 and 2010, a large portion occurred in Northern Virginia, the diverse suburbs and exurbs of Washington, D.C. Examples of rapid growth abound: Prince William County grew 40% while Loudoun County led the state with a growth rate of 84%, making them the third and fifth-most populous entities* in the state, respectively. Fairfax County crossed the 1 million resident threshold …

But Northern Virginia is just one part of the story. The other two important population centers are Greater Richmond, mainly composed of the state’s capital and the counties of Henrico and Chesterfield; and Hampton Roads, dominated by five of the seven biggest independent cities in the state: Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Newport News and Hampton. Together, these three regions form what is known as the “Urban Crescent.” Making up more than two-thirds of the state’s population, the Urban Crescent holds the key to victory in the Commonwealth, particularly for Democrats. As Barack Obama showed in 2008, a candidate who wins all three can make the rest of the state’s vote irrelevant.

More and more, Virginia looks and feels like a microcosm of the country as a whole in federal elections. While Democrats look to turn out their supporters in urban areas, Republicans look to run up the vote totals in rural regions. The two parties then battle for the suburbs and exurbs.

[T]here are also themes specific to the 2012 race that could manifest themselves acutely there. Any number of national dynamics have particular application to Virginia: white suburban disappointment with Obama, upscale female voters' concerns about the Republican Party, Latino voters' concerns about Mitt Romney, slackening enthusiasm for the president among the young voters and black voters who helped him win in 2008, suspicion of Romney among voters tied to the manufacturing sector and more.