The Virginia GOP's Slow Suicide

As a former Republican and Republican activist - I held a City Committee seat in Virginia Beach for eight years roughly two decades ago - watching the Virginia GOP's slide from power has been watching a form of slow moving suicide, a process which, as I have said before, began when Republicans foolishly began embracing far right Christians and, worse yet, voting them onto city and county committees. To my mind, that move that focused on short term advantage set the stage for the exodus of moderates and educated suburban voters from a party that became increasingly defined by an embrace of ignorance, rejection of science and knowledge and hatred to anyone deemed "other" - a category that includes basically anyone who is not a white right wing Christian.  The move also ushered in the beginning of the GOP's embrace of white supremacy since so may evangelicals in my experience are racist as exemplified by The Family Foundation which traces its roots to supporters of "Massive Resistance" when confronted with school desegregation.  As Virginia's urban and suburban areas have grown, a critical mass was reached where these regions can out vote the racist, knuckle dragging rural regions.  This new reality is not going to change and unless the Virginia GOP can reform itself - something not likely in my view given the grip the Christofascists have on the party even as Millennials exit religion entirely - Virginia will be a "blue state" for the foreseeable future (a view confirmed by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball).  A Washington Post editorial looks at this new reality.  Here are highlights: 

IN POLITICAL terms, Virginia is no longer a Southern state; it’s an Eastern one that tilts heavily Democratic. That transformation, affirmed in Tuesday’s watershed elections that flipped both state legislative chambers to the Democrats’ control, was long in the making and helped by Republicans who fell radically out of step with the increasingly diverse voters who populate the state’s booming suburbs.

Long before anyone imagined Donald Trump in the White House, Republicans such as Corey A. Stewart, last year’s failed GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate and the soon-to-be-former top official in Prince William County, rose to prominence as right-wing culture warriors. Mr. Stewart, assessing this week’s Democratic gains, said Republicans would be “toast” in Virginia for 10 years. That may be right; if it is, Mr. Stewart himself was a prominent toaster.

Mr. Stewart’s brand of Republicanism — immigrant-bashing, Confederate-monument-revering, gun-loving, abortion-blocking, trash-talking and, lately, Trump-lionizing — has been ascendant in Richmond and elsewhere. It has methodically alienated moderate and swing voters, especially in the vote-rich suburbs of Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads. In a state that won the competition for Amazon’s second corporate headquarters partly on the strength of a well-educated, multicultural workforce, Republicans who threw red meat to their base by attacking undocumented immigrants found their appeal waning.

[T]he GOP’s problems have deep roots. No Virginia Republican has won a statewide election in a decade. And in Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun counties — Washington suburban localities that together comprise nearly a quarter of Virginia’s population of 8.5 million — elected Republicans at any level are now an all-but-vanished breed.

The party’s enfeeblement was accelerated by its rejection of moderate, substantive GOP officeholders such as former lieutenant governor Bill Bolling and former congressman Thomas M. Davis III. And it signed its political death warrant by blowing up the summer’s special legislative session on gun safety after just 90 minutes, without considering a single bill. That act of cluelessness and arrogance came weeks after a mass shooting in Virginia Beach left 12 people dead.

Virginia Republicans are at a defining moment. If they reverse course and tack to the center, they may again become a force in a state that would benefit from a vibrant two-party competition. If not — if they double down by continuing down the Trumpian path blazed by Mr. Stewart and his like — they might become “toast” not for a decade but for a generation.

Thursday Morning Male Beauty

What Democrats Nationally Can Learn From Virginia Democrats' Trifecta

An op-ed in the New York Times by the director of New Virginia Majority looks at how Virginia Democrats were able to win an amazing trifecta that has placed them in total control of this state's government.  As the author notes, this huge victory did not happen overnight - it was years in coming and required steady work at building the Democrat grass roots across the state (especially in the vote rich urban and suburban areas of the state) and across varied demographic groups.  With its off year state elections, Virginia has one advantage over other states: with an election every year - which gets exhausting - organizing and building bridges do not see the lulls that other states routinely see. The other ingredients that helped with yesterday's big win were (i)  the marshaling of financial resources from national organizations and (ii) a mindset that recognized that the path to ultimate victor could take multiple election cycles.  Here are op-ed highlights:

On Tuesday night, Virginia Democrats won their most consequential election in decades. After obtaining a majority in both chambers of the General Assembly, Democrats now have a governing trifecta for the first time since 1993. This is no accident. It comes in the midst of a generational political shift that was put in motion years ago. Virginia’s Democrats got where they are today as a result of year-round community organizing and voter engagement.

For decades, Democrats allowed the prize of an Electoral College victory to blind them to electoral opportunities elsewhere, staving off funding and failing to provide meaningful support for candidates, campaigns and local parties in places they had written off as unwinnable. The national Democratic Party spent millions in Virginia this year, but the state wasn’t always such a priority. From its position in the South to its prominent role in America’s legacy of oppression, Virginia was long considered reliably conservative — unbreakable.

Local organizations like mine understood the political potential of Virginia when we got started 12 years ago. We are winning because we recognize the power of an electorate that includes and reflects the diversity of our state. We don’t talk to voters only when campaign season rolls around. We try to reach voters of all colors, women, low-income workers and young people where they are, which has made it possible for us to develop a robust base of support along Virginia’s so-called Urban Crescent, from Northern Virginia to Hampton Roads. Long before Election Day, we registered more than 300,000 voters, knocked on more than 2.5 million doors, and organized within communities of color to help win significant policy changes like Medicaid expansion, which covered nearly 400,000 people. . . . this type of year-round organizing can pave the way for victory nationally.

Part of the failure of the Democratic Party and many mainstream political organizations in the past has come out of their belief that these communities weren’t worth investing in. But trust is not built overnight. We don’t just sweep in and register voters before an election; we are registering people every day. That work is ingrained in our organization’s DNA. And we talk to people, all year, about issues that are important to them: affordable health care, access to a good education, reforming the criminal justice system, protecting voting rights and making sure our communities have clean air, water and public lands. That is what voters responded to this fall.

[C]hanges in the shape of the electorate and rising enthusiasm among voters can only go so far, without campaign architecture that channels those changes into tangible political outcomes. Democrats can’t view these communities as a means to an end, without building authentic relationships with the people who live there.

Engaging meaningfully with voters of color means talking to tens of thousands of voters to make sure they have the information they need to cast their ballots even after receiving racist Republican campaign communications. . . . . They just needed to be convinced that their vote mattered. To give one example of how this works in practical terms, in precincts in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, turnout this year increased by 24 percent over 2017.

The lesson here is that Democrats must not write off entire geographies or communities. It took years of organizing and multiple election cycles that resulted in incremental progress for Virginia to reach the point where a Democratic sweep was possible. The same arguments once used to justify chronic underinvestment in Virginia’s progressive potential have been used to undermine the potential of similar states in the South, including other states that saw important shifts Tuesday night, like Kentucky, where the Democratic candidate for governor, Andy Beshear, appeared to beat the Trump-endorsed incumbent, Matt Bevin, in a state the president won by 30 percentage points in 2016.

States don’t become battlegrounds overnight. Democrats and national progressive organizations have the resources to take their case to the people and win, but they have to start early and organize relentlessly. When they lose, they have to stay in place and keep fighting for every political inch they can get. No place is unwinnable forever. 

NOTE:  The blue areas on the map are deceiving since they contain much higher concentrations of population that the rural, red, thinly populated areas.

A Harsh New Reality for Virginia Republicans

House of Delegates chamber.

This morning Virginia Republicans wake to a new and harsh reality: they are now the minority party with Democrats controlling the legislature and every statewide office.  Some will be quick to try to blame the debacle on anti-Trump animus - Trump's approval rating in Virginia over the summer was under 30% - but much of the fault lies with the Republican base in Virginia which increasingly racist, homophobia and anti-modernity itself and toxic organizations like the NRA and The Family Foundation (the leading hate group in the state) have set the GOP agenda.  That agenda has been one of unlimited guns, feigned "religious freedom" trampling on the rights of other citizens, and efforts to disenfranchise anyone who isn't a white evangelical.  Finally, a majority of Virginians, especially in the so-called urban crescent said "enough!"  It will be interesting to see how the leading hate merchants try to spin this to avoid accepting their own significant role in making the GOP repulsive to more and more Virginians.  Articles in the Washington Post and Yahoo News look at some of the realities of today's morning after for Virginia Republicans.  Here are excerpts from Yahoo News:

Virginia Democrats promised swift action on a host of liberal policy proposals now that they've won full control of state government for the first time in more than two decades.

Democratic leaders said Virginians should expect a higher minimum wage, new gun restrictions and greater abortion rights after their party flipped control of the state House and Senate in Tuesday's election. They also promised ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment, making Virginia the final state needed for possible passage of the gender equality measure.

Suburban voters turned out in big numbers to back Democratic candidates, continuing a trend of once GOP-friendly suburbs turning blue. This is the third election in a row in which Virginia Democrats made significant gains since President Donald Trump was elected.

The Democrats' big win was a warning sign for the president and Republicans ahead of next year's election. Higher-educated and more affluent suburban voters — particularly women — have revolted against Trump's GOP both in Virginia and nationwide.

Democrats were keenly focused on gun issues during the election, saying Republicans should be held accountable for failing to pass new restrictions after a mass shooting in Virginia Beach earlier this year.

Tuesday's election could help cement Democratic rule for the next decade, because the winners will decide who controls the next redistricting process.

Poll after poll showed that Virginians want gun control and believe in non-discrimination protections for LGBT citizens. They also are repelled by the GOP's efforts to undermine the Affordable Health Care Act.  Republican refusal to deliver what so many voters want came home to roost.  The Post piece continues some of this analysis:

But singling out Trump as the reason for Republican failures in 2019 “is too easy,” said Mark Rozell, a George Mason University professor of public policy. Rather, he said, Virginia’s GOP over the past decade has gravitated toward the right on social issues and alienated moderate voters.

Gillespie, for example, embraced a hard-line anti-immigrant stance during his 2017 gubernatorial race after having preached the importance of the Republican Party adopting a more tolerant message to attract voters.

“Democrats have had an easy time characterizing the Republicans as out of the mainstream on issues,” Rozell said. “Republicans in Virginia need to rebrand, refocus and broaden their appeal.”

Even before results were announced Tuesday night, leaders of gun-control groups were taking a victory lap at the Democrats’ rally at the Hilton Hotel in downtown Richmond. John Feinblatt, president of Everytown for Gun Safety, said a key turning point in the campaign was GOP lawmakers move to shut down a special legislative session in July on gun control, in the wake of the May 31 mass shooting in Virginia Beach.

“I think what we’re going to learn tonight is that was a huge political mistake,” he said. “I think Republicans really turned their backs on citizens of the commonwealth by not taking up a single gun safety measure.”

[D]emographic changes in large portions of the state, including a population explosion in Northern Virginia from the early 1990s through 2010, turned the commonwealth from red to purple.

And now?

“At this point, Virginia has become a blue state — how can you call it anything else,” Rozell said. “In a state that was long considered leaning red and two-party competitive at best, who could have predicted that the Republican Party would fall so dramatically and quickly?”

But how Democrats handle their newfound power could determine whether the party remains dominant in Virginia. If Democratic lawmakers push a progressive agenda, for example, the party risks alienating centrist voters. . . . a Democratic operative, said the party’s core of moderate lawmakers — headed by Northam and state Sen. Richard Saslaw (D-Fairfax), who is to become Senate majority leader — retain enormous influence over policy.

“They’re both centrists,” he said. “You’re not going to see a coup from the far left. There aren’t enough votes for that.”

It is definitely a new day in Virginia.  Democrats worked hard to get to this point, but Republican extremism and obstruction of the popular will made their job far easier.  Will the Virginia GOP learn from this debacle?  Probably not given the insanity and toxicity of its party base.

Wednesday Morning Male Beauty

Democrats Take Control of Virginia General Assembly

In what will hopefully be a prelude to the 2020 federal elections, Democrats in Virginia have won control of both the Virginia Senate and the House of Delegates for the first time since 1993.  Both House Delegates candidates that the husband and I backed financially - Martha Mugler and Shelly Simonds - were victorious.  As Governor Ralph Northam - a good friend  - noted, this will usher in a much needed sea change in Virginia:

“Tonight, the ground has shifted in Virginia government. The voters have spoken, and they have elected landmark Democratic majorities in both the Senate and the House of Delegates. I am proud of my fellow Democrats and inspired by our shared victory.

“Since I took office two years ago, we have made historic progress as a Commonwealth. Tonight, Virginians made it clear they want us to continue building on that progress.

“They want us to defend the rights of women, LGBTQ Virginians, immigrant communities, and communities of color. They want us to increase access to a world-class education for every child, and make sure no one is forced to go bankrupt because they or a family member gets sick. They want us to invest in clean energy and take bold action to combat climate change. And they want us to finally pass commonsense gun safety legislation, so no one has to fear being hurt or killed while at school, at work, or at their place of worship.

No doubt there is much gnashing of teeth among white supremacist circles and among Christofascist zealots who for the last two decades have sought to inflict their hate and fear driven version of religion on all Virginians.  Tonight, a majority of Virginians said "no more." and sent those who coddle the gun lobby and haters of all stripes into retirement.   The Virginian Pilot reports in part as follows:

Democratic victories in two senate districts in suburban Richmond and one in Loudoun County gave them a 21 seat majority, while the GOP held narrow leads in two Virginia Beach districts targeted by by million-dollar-plus efforts to flip to blue.

A new 55-or-more-seat Democratic majority in the House came in part from gains in two House districts on the Peninsula, including the Newport News one where a tie vote and a drawing of a lot gave the GOP a 51-49 majority in 2017. Republicans held slight leads in two Beach seats Democrats had targeted with the final precincts still to count.

House Appropriations Committee chairman Chris Jones, R-Suffolk, [who lied extensively in his campaign ads and used racist dog whistling messaging] was defeated by Democrat Clinton Jenkins in a district federal judges drastically changed to undo the General Assembly’s illegal 2011 gerrymandering.

Senate Majority Leader Thomas K. Norment Jr., R-James City, was re-elected. But like Cox, he will lose most of his power to steer or block legislation with the new Democratic majority.

Throughout the election, Democrats sought to tie Republican candidates to President Donald Trump, warning them that a vote for Republicans would mean siding with the gun lobby and reducing access to affordable health care, including birth control.

On the Peninsula, Democrat Martha Mugler flipped a reconfigured Hampton and Poquoson 91st House district, after the retirement of one of the most loved Generaly Assembly members, Del. Gordon Helsel, R-Poquoson. Democrat Shelly Simonds defeated Del. David Yancey, R-Newport News. He was returned to Richmond after a tie vote in 2017 after he won a lot drawing. Democrat victories in the last GOP-held seat in Fairfax county, and a victory in the Frederickburg suburbs secured House majority.

Democrats held on to the 15 House seats they won in the 2017 blue wave election. . . . Turnout was higher than expected in the usually sleepy off-off year elections.

House Democrats out raised Republicans by nearly $10 million this election cycle, according to the Virginia Public Access project. On the Senate side, Democrats out raised Republicans by $5 million.

We celebrated at both the Mugler and Simonds victory parties.  It was a wonderful night to celebrate democracy and seeing the forces of hate, bigotry and obstruction go down to defeat.

Tuesday Morning Male Beauty

Republicans Won’t Stop Killing LGBT Rights in Virginia

It's election day in Virginia and so much is at stake in terms of Virginia's future.  This is especially the case with LGBT rights which Virginia Republicans have blocked for decades now leave LGBT Virginians with no state level employment non-discrimination protections and even without public accommodation and housing non-discrimination protections.  While Republicans have run extremely dishonest campaigns trying to sound almost like typical Democrats, make mistake that these campaign efforts are a lie and that should Republicans retain control of the General Assembly, nothing will change and LGBT rights advances will continue to be killed.  A piece in Metro Weekly looks at this truth.  If you are LGBT or have LGBT friends or family members, it is imperative that you go vote for the Democrat candidates in your House of Delegates and Senate districts. Here are article excerpts that explain why:

Republicans in Virginia have controlled the House of Delegates for almost two decades, since taking control after the 1999 general election.

During that time, though public attitudes around LGBTQ rights have shifted and widespread acceptance of LGBTQ individuals has increased, the Virginia GOP is still partying like it’s 1999, using their power — particularly in the House — to continually halt or kill pro-equality measures.

That remains true even though polls show a majority of Virginians support making it illegal to discriminate against LGBTQ people.

The GOP is even out of step with its own base — a poll earlier this year found that a majority of Virginia Republicans support protecting LGBTQ people from discrimination.
[T]he House of Delegates has remained stubbornly opposed to allowing any such legislation to escape to the governor’s desk.

With that in mind — and a general election set for tomorrow, Nov. 5, that could hand control of the House to Democrats — here’s some of the most notable times Republicans have killed progress for the LGBTQ community in Virginia:

Yanked three pro-LGBTQ bills, fearing they might pass

In January this year, Republican leaders in the House killed three separate pro-LGBTQ bills. Two of the bills would have prohibited discrimination in public employment and housing, and a third would have provided more expansive protections for LGBTQ people in public accommodations, credit, and public contracting. The bills, as with many before them, were killed by Republican-stacked subcommittees, with advocates blaming Speaker Kirk Cox, alleging that he feared at least two of the bills would have passed a full vote in the House.

Killed every pro-LGBTQ housing and employment bill

In 2018, Cox once again stepped in to ensure that four bills designed to protect LGBTQ people from discrimination in housing and employment died in subcommittees — after Cox engineered those committees to heavily favor conservative lawmakers from GOP-leaning districts. This, despite wide support for the bills including from a number of housing, building, and realtor associations.

Rejected protecting transgender people from healthcare discrimination

Also in 2018, Republicans voted to allow anti-transgender healthcare discrimination to continue. A Democrat-sponsored bill would have prevented insurance companies from refusing to cover medically necessary treatments or procedures for trans patients, but all GOP members of a House subcommittee rejected it, effectively killing the bill.

Stopped an attempt to ban anti-LGBTQ conversion therapy on minors

Again in 2018, Republicans — this time in a Senate committee — killed a bill that would have prevented licensed therapists and counselors from subjecting LGBTQ minors to conversion therapy. Widely debunked and considered harmful and detrimental to mental health, conversion therapy purports to “change” a person’s sexual orientation or gender identity. But rather than vote to protect children from being subjected to methods that include public shaming, forced vomiting, and electroshock therapy, they instead rejected the bill on a party-line vote. (And it’s not the first time. Republicans rejected a similar ban in 2015.)

Defeated bills to deal with anti-LGBTQ hate crimes

It really was a busy year for killing pro-LGBTQ legislation, as in 2018 Republicans also shut down attempts to deal with crimes that target LGBTQ people — a decision made even as the number of anti-LGBTQ homicides hit a record high.

And that’s just in the last couple of years.

We’ve only highlighted as far back as the start of the 2018 legislative session, but Republicans have killed countless pro-LGBTQ measures over the years, covering a number of LGBTQ issues, from nondiscrimination protections, to legalizing same-sex marriage, to including LGBTQ people in hate crimes protections:

2017: Two pro-equality bills designed to ban discrimination against LGBTQ people in housing and employment passed the Senate before being killed in the House by a Republican-controlled subcommittee.

2016: GOP Delegates killed eight LGBTQ-related bills by punting them to a process that subjects legislation to further review and analysis, effectively tabling them indefinitely. Among those punted were six bills granting protections in public employment, private employment, housing and public accommodations, as well as a measure that would have banned the practice of LGBT conversion therapy on minors. House Republicans then killed two nondiscrimination bills — which had passed the Senate on a bipartisan vote — that would have prohibited discrimination in housing and employment.

We haven’t even mentioned the anti-LGBTQ legislation…

While Republicans in Virginia were busy voting down, tabling, delaying, or otherwise killing pro-LGBTQ legislation, they were also introducing various bills that actively discriminated against the LGBTQ community, including: a “religious freedom” bill that removed penalties for those who discriminated against LGBTQ people (it was ultimately vetoed by Gov. Terry McAuliffe after passing both the House and Senate); passing an almost identical bill in 2016, which was similarly vetoed; introducing three separate bills in 2017 targeting transgender people in public accommodations, allowing contractors to discriminate against LGBTQ people, and banning trans students from accessing facilities that match their gender identity; and in 2016 threatening nine separate pieces of anti-LGBTQ legislation targeting same-sex marriage and LGBTQ rights.

And again, that’s just in the last few years.

Democrats expect a “sea change” in LGBTQ progress should they flip the House or Senate

Democrats are arguing that the only hope for progress on LGBTQ rights in Virginia is for voters to flip the House — and the Senate, too — and give Democrats a chance to pass pro-LGBTQ legislation.

As Kathryn Gilley, communications director for the Democratic Party of Virginia, told Metro Weekly last week, “If Republicans were going to do something to help the LGBTQ community, they would have done it by now.”

“They have had a majority in the House of Delegates for 20 years,” she said. “We’ve seen their stance on LGBTQ rights, and it’s not good.”

Again, if you have LGBT friends or family members, if you don't vote Democrat today, you are actively voting to harm your friends and family members.  It truly is that simple. Vote Democrat!

More Monday Male Beauty

Virginia Votes: What is at Stake on November 5, 2019

It is not an exaggeration to state that tomorrow's state elections in Virginia are the most consequential in a generation or more given that control of the Virginia General Assembly is the ultimate prize.  If Republicans retain control of the Senate and/or House of Delegates (in part due to gerrymandering), it will mean at least two more years of Republicans obstructing and sabotaging policies and programs that a significant majority of Virginians want. If the Democrats win control, Virginia will move significantly forward into the 21st century and finally throw off the remnants of its ugly history as a part of the Confederacy and an architect of the Jim Crow laws.  Democrat control will mean the passage of common sense gun control, laws to address climate change and repair holes in the Paris climate accord being torn open by Trump/Pence, an increase in the minimum wage, stronger health care policies, enhanced non-discrimination laws, and redistricting in 2020 that could end GOP gerrymandering.  In short, so much is at stake and it is critical that voters go to the polls and vote out Republicans who have engaged in a campaign of lies since summer wherein they pretend to be moderates - they are NOT - and lying about their own voting records (Suffolk's Chris Jones has been among the most shameless liars - and one of his ads has an older white woman saying he is "one of us," a not so subtle dog whistle against Jones' black opponent).  Here are highlights from a piece in the Washington Post that looks ate the importance of tomorrow's elections:

Voters go to the polls Tuesday for Virginia’s most consequential legislative elections in a generation, with control of state government at stake and the results marking an early skirmish in next year’s presidential contest.

An unprecedented flood of money has boosted many General Assembly races to the spending level of congressional contests. Virginia is the only state where this fall’s elections will determine the balance of power in the legislature, and both national parties regard it as a proxy war over President Trump and his political future.

All 140 seats in the General Assembly are on the ballot, but much of the battle has focused on suburban districts in Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads, where voters can swing left or right.

Trump is deeply unpopular in Virginia, and he made no visits there to boost GOP candidates. When Vice President Pence attended a campaign rally in Virginia Beach on Sunday, the Democratic Party of Virginia promoted the appearance.

Republicans are defending thin majorities of 20 to 19 in the Senate and 51 to 48 in the House of Delegates, with one vacancy in each chamber. If Democrats can take control, they could consolidate power for the first time in 26 years and work with [Governor] Northam to enact legislation long blocked by Republicans.

Those include gun control, protections against discrimination based on sexual orientation, a higher minimum wage and passage of the Equal Rights Amendment. As the only former Confederate state that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and with its urban and suburban areas becoming increasingly diverse, Virginia is seen by Democrats as an important place to plant the flag against Trump’s Republican Party.

Whoever controls the General Assembly will oversee redistricting after next year’s census — influencing politics for a decade to come.

GOP candidates warn that new liberal Democrats are out of step with traditional Virginia values and will ruin the state’s business-friendly climate. Many suburban Republican candidates have attempted a difficult balancing act, posing almost like centrist Democrats for much of the summer — including blue campaign signs and literature that emphasized gun safety and health care without mentioning party affiliation — but lashing out against “socialists” and abortionists in the final weeks. . . . Republicans aimed to depict Democrats as chaotic, scandal-ridden baby killers, and themselves as pragmatic centrists.

On May 31, though, tragedy disrupted state politics when a gunman killed 12 in Virginia Beach. Amid a public outcry for action, Democrats rallied around Northam, who summoned the General Assembly to a special legislative session in July to consider gun restrictions.

Republicans who control the legislature accused Democrats of cynical politics and adjourned the session after 90 minutes without debating a single bill. Instead, they referred all legislation to a state crime commission.

That was a risky move for Republicans — a recent Washington Post-Schar School poll found that gun policy is the top issue for a majority of Virginia voters. While those voters split evenly among Democrats and Republicans, even bigger majorities said they favor some form of gun control legislation.

Polls also consistently showed that most Virginians are happy with the job Northam is doing, defusing the scandal issue for Republicans.

Turnout is the most crucial factor Tuesday. . . . . Democrats are hoping that anti-Trump fervor will get their numbers up, as it has done since 2016, and they have cranked up celebrity endorsements for good measure, including visits from actors Alec Baldwin and Kerry Washington.

Republicans, meanwhile, focused on unseating several Prince William delegates swept into office two years ago on an anti-Trump wave, including the state’s first two Latina legislators, Hala Ayala and Elizabeth Guzman, and Danica Roem, Virginia’s first transgender elected official. But fundraising in those races has heavily favored Democrats.

In Hampton Roads, the most-watched race is a rerun: Del. David E. Yancey (R-Newport News) faces Democrat Shelly Simonds (D) two years after their 2017 contest resulted in a tie, which was decided by a random drawing live on national television.

Del. Chris Jones (R-Suffolk), chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, is trying to fend off Clinton Jenkins in a redrawn district that heavily favors Democrats.

Several Virginia Beach races could be pivotal in determining the balance of power and will test the potency of the gun control issue. Freshman Del. Kelly K. Convirs-Fowler (D-Virginia Beach) is in a tight race in a heavily military district against Republican challenger Shannon Kane; Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. (R-Virginia Beach) faces Democrat Karen Mallard; and Del. Christopher P. Stolle (R-Virginia Beach) is running against Democrat Nancy Guy.

That area’s two Senate seats are also competitive. Del. Cheryl B. Turpin (D-Virginia Beach) faces Republican Jen Kiggins for an open seat vacated by retired senator Frank Wagner (R-Virginia Beach), and Sen. William R. DeSteph Jr. (R-Virginia Beach) is trying to turn back a well-funded challenge by Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal.

Vote Democrat tomorrow to move Virginia forward - and to symbolically give a huge middle finger to Donald Trump and national Republicans such as Moscow Mitch McConnell, Leningrad Lindsey Graham and the white supremacists and religious extremist who support them.

If you live on the Peninsula, vote for Martha Mugler or Shelly Simonds if you are in their respective districts.