Saving American Lives or Propping Up Business: Trump Prefers the Later

An empty Times Square.

As various states are increasingly clamping down and closing business interests - Virginia tightened restriction as of midnight last night - in the hope of containing the COVID-19 virus and avoiding the nightmare playing out in New York City - actions condoned by medical experts - Donald Trump appears poised to loosen restrictions on public gatherings and business closures.  Why?  Because he fears a deep and/or prolonged recession will kill his chances of re-election.  Race baiting and xenophobic behavior may not be enough to rally his base if they are dying financially.  In Trump's mind, thousands of perhaps avoidable deaths of Americans is a small price to pay to help his re-election effort.  It's another example of why doesn't elect a malignant narcissist who has zero empathy for anyone to the White House.  A piece in the New York Times and one at CNN look at Trump's likely disregard for the warnings of medical experts.  For Trump supporters who think he gives a rat's ass about their very lives, they should perhaps open their eyes and think again.  First this from the Times piece:

As the United States entered Week 2 of trying to contain the spread of the coronavirus by shuttering large swaths of the economy, President Trump, Wall Street executives and many conservative economists began questioning whether the government had gone too far and should instead lift restrictions that are already inflicting deep pain on workers and businesses.

Consensus continues to grow among government leaders and health officials that the best way to defeat the virus is to order nonessential businesses to close and residents to confine themselves at home. Britain, after initially resisting such measures, essentially locked down its economy on Monday, as did the governors of Virginia, Michigan and Oregon.

Relaxing those restrictions could significantly increase the death toll from the virus, public health officials warn. Many economists say there is no positive trade-off — resuming normal activity prematurely would only strain hospitals and result in even more deaths, while exacerbating a recession that has most likely already arrived.

The economic shutdown is causing damage that is only beginning to appear in official data. Morgan Stanley researchers said on Monday that they now expected the economy to shrink by an annualized rate of 30 percent in the second quarter of this year, and the unemployment rate to jump to nearly 13 percent. Both would be records, in modern economic statistics.

Mr. Trump and a chorus of conservative voices have begun to suggest that the shock to the economy could hurt the country more than deaths from the virus.

On Monday, Mr. Trump said his administration would reassess whether to keep the economy shuttered after the initial 15-day period ends next Monday, saying it could extend another week and that certain parts of the country could reopen sooner than others, depending on the extent of infections.

Any push to loosen the new limits on commerce and movement would contradict the consensus advice of public health officials, risking a surge in infections and deaths from the virus. Many economists warn that abruptly reopening the economy could backfire, overwhelming an already stressed health care system, sowing uncertainty among consumers, and ultimately dealing deeper, longer-lasting damage to growth.

The recent rise of cases in Hong Kong, after there had been an easing of the spread of the virus, is something of an object lesson about how ending strict measures too soon can have dangerous consequences. Yet places like China, which took the idea of lockdown to the extreme, have managed to flatten the curve.

The piece at CNN looks at this issue as well and what may be Trump's motivations which have lettle to do with reducing the death toll.  Here are excerpts:

President Donald Trump appears to have made his choice in the awful dilemma posed by the coronavirus pandemic -- whether to destroy the nation's economic foundation in order to save lives.

In his zeal to fire up American prosperity after helping to trigger an unprecedented self-inflicted economic meltdown, Trump is already losing patience -- weeks before the virus may peak. His comments came on day when the number of confirmed cases soared past 40,000 and 100 people died in a single day for the first time. Dr. Deborah Birx, a member of Trump's coronavirus task force, warned that the "attack rate" of the disease in New York, America's dominant economic and financial powerhouse, was five times that of elsewhere. Trump's change of emphasis previewed a building confrontation inside his own administration -- between public health officials using the science of epidemiology to battle Covid-19 and political and economic officials desperate to save an economy that is fundamental to basic life and Trump's reelection hopes.

[Trump's] The President's upbeat prediction of a return to full speed ahead directly contradicted the actions of state governors nationwide -- who are imposing stay-at-home orders, closing businesses and ordering schools out for summer in March.

Local and public health authorities fear the highly contagious virus will cause a tsunami of critically ill patients that will swamp hospitals and mean people will die in the thousands.

The idea that the situation will stabilize in a few weeks -- when most experts say that much, much worse is to come -- appears fanciful. This raises the question of whether Trump is willing to take a decision that could indirectly cause many deaths but that could save millions of other Americans from the deprivations brought on by economic blight. Trump's course change -- after warning last week the shutdown could last until July or August -- was consistent with the scattershot way in which he has managed the coronavirus pandemic.

He spent weeks denying it was a serious problem, predicting it could simply go away and was not much worse than the flu. It was noticeable Monday that Trump was talking about the virus in the past tense. . . . And he went back to comparing Covid-19 to the seasonal flu even though it is far more virulent, has a far higher death rate and has no vaccine. Then he borrowed an argument being made by conservative commentators.

"You look at automobile accidents, which are far greater than any numbers we're talking about. That doesn't mean we're going to tell everybody no more driving of cars. So we have to do things to get our country open," Trump said. Trump's apparent impatience, only days after declaring war on the virus, raises questions about the depth of his thinking and his own motivations given the importance of a strong economy to his reelection campaign. And his sudden lurches make it more difficult to unite the nation behind him in the grim fight.

This would not be the first time that Trump has been influenced by conservative news chatter or that his personal political goals might weigh heavily on his thinking.

A strong economy will mean nothing if one or one's loved ones are dead.  Once again, Trump puts his personal interests ahead of the lives of citizens.  Sadly, no one should be surprised. 

Economic Decline Will be Sharper Than in 2008

Unless the COVID-19 pandemic can be contained quickly, the economic toll on America - and the world - will be catastrophic as businesses close and many Americans find themselves jobless and with no income.  What is stunning is the speed of the economic reversal which economists say will make the 2008 financial crisis pale in comparison.  We are in truly uncharted waters yet some are criticizing the current stimulus plan in Congress as too generous while others are saying it needs to be larger and more targeted to those who have lost or at risk of losing their jobs.  A piece in the Washington Post looks at the current troubling situation. Here are article highlights:

The U.S. economy is deteriorating more quickly than was expected just days ago as extraordinary measures designed to curb the coronavirus keep 84 million Americans penned in their homes and cause the near-total shutdown of most businesses.

In a single 24-hour period, governors of three of the largest states — California, New York and Illinois — ordered residents to stay home except to buy food and medicine, while the governor of Pennsylvania ordered the closure of nonessential businesses.

The resulting economic meltdown, which is sending several million workers streaming into the unemployment line, is outpacing the federal government’s efforts to respond. As the Senate on Friday raced to complete work on a financial rescue package, the White House and key lawmakers were dramatically expanding its scope, pushing the legislation far beyond the original $1 trillion price tag.

With each day, an unprecedented stoppage gathers force as restaurants, movie theaters, sports arenas and offices close to shield themselves from the disease. Already, it is clear that the initial economic decline will be sharper and more painful than during the 2008 financial crisis.

Next week, the Labor Department will likely report that roughly 3 million Americans have filed first-time claims for unemployment assistance, more than four times the record high set in the depths of the 1982 recession, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That is just the start of a surge that could send the jobless rate spiking to 20 percent from today’s 3.5 percent, a JPMorgan Chase economist told clients on a conference call Friday.

“We are looking at something quite grave,” said economist Janet L. Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair. “If businesses suffer such serious losses and are forced to fire workers and have their firms go into bankruptcy, it may not be easy to pull out of that.” Most economists expect the economy to begin climbing out of its deep hole in the second half of this year. But those forecasts depend upon the pandemic being brought under control and the United States and other governments enacting policies that prevent lasting harm to factories and financial arteries. Even if all that happens, the economy will be smaller at the end of this year than it was at the beginning, according to Bridgewater, Goldman and JPMorgan. Individual workers and their families — many only recently recovered from the economic cataclysm of 2008 and 2009 — are already feeling the effects. The unexpected economic shock has put millions of Americans living on the precipice of ruin. In a Fed survey last year, 39 percent of Americans said they would be unable to handle an unexpected $400 expense. The sudden turnabout in U.S. economic fortunes is without historic parallel. As 2020 began, the U.S. economy had been expanding without interruption since the middle of 2009. The jobless rate was near a half-century low, and the stock market was headed toward a record high.

Now, the economy is screeching to a halt and the stock market is in free fall. On Thursday, the Big Three automakers said they would close their factories through March 30. Real estate agents have canceled open houses. Marriott, the largest hotel company in the world, is closing its hotels and furloughing thousands of workers. . . . . On average, hotel revenue is down 75 percent, which requires draconian retrenchment.

“A stunning reversal of fortune for the best economy in history to the worst economy in history in not even two months. The fastest recession in history. With no one spending a dime, it will stay that way a long, long time.”

For small-business owners, there is palpable fear of bankruptcy.

Let's hope two weeks of social distancing reins in the virus' spread and that normalcy can be restored.