The Accelerating End of American Hegemony

Trump and Idi Amin - same delusions, different skin color.

The mantra of Der Trumpenführer and his white, evangelical Christian nationalist supporters is to "make America great again," yet the foreign policies the malignant narcissist in the White House is pursuing will likely have  the exact opposite effect on the international stage.   Trump, of course, is so utterly ignorant of history and the need for alliances and while he envisions himself as a fabulous reincarnation of France's Louis XIV, he is in reality more akin to a tin pot African dictator - I think of Idi Amin who had a physique like Trump's and a similar obsession with self-importance and lacked a grasp on objective reality - with little credibility on the world stage.  A column in the Washington Post looks at how Trump is likely accelerating America's loss of hegemony in the world.  Here are highlights:

In retrospect, the era of American hegemony — the moment of the “sole superpower,” when the United States was the “essential” country — was remarkably brief. It began in 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, probably peaked just before 9/11, and for the past decade — under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama — it has been drawing slowly and unevenly to an end. Even while it lasted, this hegemony was partly a game of smoke and mirrors. It depended on perceptions: belief in American wealth, fear of American military power, admiration for American values. It depended on the absence of opponents: the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relative weakness of China.

Above all, it depended on an American willingness to invest: in diplomacy, in military power — but above all in alliances. By forging mutually advantageous agreements with Germans or South Koreans, the United States had far greater influence than it would have had otherwise. By creating and then expanding NATO, by maintaining troops in South Korea and Japan, the United States kept parts of Europe and Asia free to choose democracy, and open for commerce and trade. 

Trump knows no history and does not have any idea how the United States became an “essential” country, let alone a superpower. But he seems to believe that he can maintain that status, and even increase it, without making investments — diplomatic, military or monetary — at all. This week, the outline of what this means — call it “hegemony on the cheap” — suddenly came into sharp focus.

Trump’s abrupt withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal exposed America’s weak hand. For we left — but then what? In different circumstances — after negotiations, after obtaining proof that Iran was in violation of the deal — it might have been possible to recreate the international coalition that imposed sanctions so successfully in the first place. In different circumstances, it might also have been possible to change the deal . . .

Instead, we are now in the worst of all possible worlds. We have broken the agreement with Iran, but we are unable to impose a new sanctions regime in its place. Instead of making a diplomatic investment, we are shouting and barking orders. Just after Trump’s announcement, the American ambassador to Germany issued a threat on Twitter: “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.” As a result, European leaders are not talking about Iran. They are talking about how they can protect their companies from American sanctions, and how they might retaliate.

Courtesy of the Iranian government, we have just learned that Trump recently sent a letter to Arab allies, demanding that they commit more military resources to solve Middle Eastern problems. Fair enough — but if they aren’t your resources, then you don’t get to decide how they will be used. In fact, quite a few Arab governments are already participating in Middle Eastern wars. Saudi Arabia is already fighting in Yemen, where we don’t have much say in what happens. We don’t have any control over what happens in Libya, either, where the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and other states are already participating in a proxy fight. If conflict spreads to Iran, the same will be true.

That moment of American hegemony really was impressive, and there are many places where the aura has yet to fade. It will take quite a bit of time for Europeans, not to mention Russians and Chinese, to find their way around U.S. sanctions on Iran, to invent alternative ways to invest, to create new sources of credit outside the existing international banking system. It will take time before the rearmed nations of the Middle East realize that there is no reason, any longer, to consult the U.S. government before going to war. It will take time before U.S. economic policy becomes so erratic that others decide not to preserve the dollar as the reserve currency, or not to reserve a space for Americans at the top table.

It may be many years before Americans finally notice that “hegemony on the cheap” means they no longer have much say in what happens outside their borders. But sooner or later that moment will come. Trump may have accelerated its arrival.

The irony is the parallel between Trump and his evangelical supporters who claim to be saving and protecting Christianity in America even as now almost 40% of Millennials have abandoned religion, mostly because they view conservative Christianity as something ugly and repulsive. The Chinese in particular must be relishing Trump's trashing of America's standing in the international order. 

Hillary Clinton Widens Delegate Lead; Sanders Remains in a Delusional Alternate Reality

With the projected results in for four of the six primaries taking pace today, Hillary Clinton is winning three, in particular delegate rich New Jersey.  For the other two, the results will not be in for a number of hours.  But even if he were to win both, Bernie Sanders cannot overcome the delegate count - or most likely, the number of votes won by Clinton.  Yet, the ego filled old crank continues to refuse to accept the reality and refuses to capitulate and end his campaign.  I am seriously beginning to believe that some how Sanders and Donald Trump are fraternal twins separated at birth.  Both live in their own manufactured reality.  A piece in Politico looks at Sanders' increasingly delusional denial of reality. Here are excerpts:

Hillary Clinton won New Jersey on Tuesday, kicking off a night in which she is set to declare victory as the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party and the first woman in U.S. history to lead a major-party ticket, even as her last remaining rival Bernie Sanders resists growing calls to quit.

Clinton officially crossed the 2,383 delegate threshold to clinch the nomination in anti-climactic fashion on Monday, with the Associated Press spoiling her planned celebration by announcing its canvass of super delegates revealed she had hit the magic number. She had previously been expected to cross that threshold on Tuesday, when six states — New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota and California — are voting. Clinton’s victory address will occur on exactly the eight-year anniversary of her famous 2008 concession speech, in which she declared that she had failed to "shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling" but that her voters had created “18 million cracks” in it. That speech represented her call for party unity. Now she turns to the urgent task of bringing together a Democratic Party whose progressive wing has resisted her ascent to the White House for almost a decade, first backing Barack Obama in 2008 and then Sanders in 2016.

Sanders has shown no interest in quitting even as Clinton has sewn up the nomination, arguing that superdelegates are not legally bound to support her and could still change their minds.
 “We’re on the phone right now,” Sanders told NBC News on Tuesday night, trying to flip those superdelegates.

In modern history there is no precedent for those superdelegates disagreeing with the will of the voters. Sanders trails Clinton badly in both total votes and pledged delegates won.

[L]argely the race has passed Sanders by, as Clinton has begun zeroing in on Trump, delivering a blistering speech last week calling him “temperamentally unfit” for the presidency.

Sanders needs to end his campaign immediately and put the best interests of the country against his huge ego.  All efforts now need to focus on defeating Donald Trump who represents everything Sanders claims to be against. 

AP Declares Clinton Winner of Democratic Primary

While Bernie Sanders continues to have a tempestuous love affair with himself (I am beginning to wonder if he is equal to or worse than Donald Trump in this regard) and appears unable to concede that he has lost the Democrat presidential primary race to Hillary Clinton, the Associated Press has declared that Clinton has enough pledged delegates and super delegates to clinch the Democrat nomination.  Moreover, even should Sanders perform reasonably well in tomorrows primaries, given the proportionate allocation of delegates, Clinton will merely expand the cushion of delegates that she needs. Both the Washington Post and Politico are carrying stories on the delegate count.  Will this be enough to bring Sanders back in touch with reality?  My guess is probably not. With Sanders, it is now all about him and satisfying his overweening ego.  Here are excerpts from the Washington Post:

LOS ANGELES — Hillary Clinton has secured enough delegates to win the Democratic presidential nomination, according to the Associated Press, emerging from a long and bruising primary season to become the first woman to lead a major party in the race for the White House.

A bitter nomination battle that Clinton was once expected to win in a walk ended abruptly late Monday, as she claimed exactly the number of delegates needed to secure victory in her contest against Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, according the AP’s latest tally.

Clinton was widely expected — even inside her own campaign — to clinch the nomination Tuesday, when California, New Jersey and four other states are scheduled to vote. But according to the AP, Clinton continued to pick up new commitments from delegates over the weekend and on Monday that effectively guarantee her the nomination.

President Obama could endorse Clinton as soon as this week, not waiting for the Democratic convention in July, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Monday.
An Obama endorsement would be a significant boost to Clinton as she seeks to unify Democrats after the difficult primaries. It would send a strong message to Sanders and his supporters that they should coalesce around Clinton, something Sanders has indicated he is far from ready to do.

Politico adds this:

A combination of pledged and super delegates put Clinton over the mark in her contest against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to the AP count.

Her campaign manager, Robby Mook, shrugged off the news, pointing to the upcoming contests on Tuesday.

"This is an important milestone, but there are six states that are voting Tuesday, with millions of people heading to the polls, and Hillary Clinton is working to earn every vote," he said in a statement. "We look forward to Tuesday night, when Hillary Clinton will clinch not only a win in the popular vote, but also the majority of pledged delegates."

Before the AP updated its count and put her over the top, Clinton was just 23 delegates shy of the 2,383 needed to clinch the nomination, and with six states holding primaries or caucuses, she was expected to easily cross that threshold.
 But given her reliance on superdelegates to reach a majority, Sanders has vowed to wage a bitter battle all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July, insisting that nothing is official until the ballots are tallied in Philadelphia.

Through out this primary contest, I have gone from somewhat liking Bernie Sanders to now seeing him as a delusional crank who cares more about placating his own ego than anything else.   In terms of egomania, he has turned int a Trump mini me.