Hurricane Irene May Be a Major Threat

UPDATED: The Virginian Pilot reports in part as follows concerning the approach of Hurricane Irene:

All Navy ships in Hampton Roads are ordered to prepare to get underway within 24 hours because conditions have been set to Sortie Condition Bravo.

"We learned last hurricane season with Hurricane Earl that we must be prepared even sooner to make the decision to sortie," said Vice Adm. Daniel Holloway, commander of the U.S. Second Fleet, in a news release. "If the decision is made to sortie the fleet, as prudent mariners we must ensure that our ships have enough time to avoid storm damage and transit out of the path of the storm, well ahead of it."

Locals always consider it a very bad sign when the fleet is sent to sea to avoid a severe storm. If the fleet is ordered to sortie, it will not make most of us feel very secure.

The weather forecast updates are not comforting even though much can change between now and the weekend. Apparently, some computer models have the storm striking the Carolinas and crossing south side Tidewater Virginia to emerge into the Chesapeake Bay still at hurricane strength. Timing, of course, would be important since if the storm passes through at low tide, we'd have a three foot credit against whatever storm surge might materialize. Obviously, I'm not relishing the thought of moving everything upstairs, putting the flood doors in place and then sand bagging all the doors of our home. Fortunately, my house in Norfolk is in an area that never floods although some surrounding areas (including where the office is located- thankfully on the second story) could get whacked. Here are highlights of what the New York Times is currently reporting:

Forecasters say the hurricane could grow to a monstrous Category 4 storm with winds of more than 131 mph before it's predicted to come ashore this weekend on the U.S. mainland. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami expected Irene to reach Category 3 strength on Tuesday, said spokesman Dennis Feltgen.

Officials could begin issuing watches for parts of the U.S. mainland later in the day. Because the storm is so large, Florida could begin feeling some effects from the storm late Wednesday.

Current government models have the storm's outer bands sweeping Florida late this week before it takes aim at the Carolinas this weekend, though forecasters caution that predictions made days in advance can be off by hundreds of miles. Georgia is also likely to be affected.

An updated forecast released Tuesday morning also showed that Irene could move into the Chesapeake Bay by Sunday at hurricane strength. That latest model showed Irene making landfall along the North Carolina coast. However, because the storm is still days away from the U.S., some models also show Irene remaining offshore along the East Coast.

Still, authorities on North Carolina's Ocracoke Island were taking no chances. On Tuesday, officials issued a mandatory evacuation order for visitors to leave starting at 5 a.m. Wednesday.

Irene could bring much-needed relief to a fire blazing in the Great Dismal Swamp on the North Carolina-Virginia line, however. If the storm stays on its current track, it could soak the smoldering fire that's consumed more than 9 square miles of swamp in both states.

Yes, it would be nice to see the fire in the Great Dismal Swamp extinguished - we've had days in Hampton where the smoke has been so bad we don't go outdoors - but a less drastic solution would be preferable.