Unfriendly Winds for the GOP

I talk a lot about what has happened to the GOP since the days years ago when I was a GOP activist. I believe that two forces in particular have been in play that are somewhat intertwined: the rising influence of the Christian Right in the Part and the Party's ever increasing refusal to accept objective reality that times and the country's demographics are changing. In my view, much of refusal to face reality seems from the Christianists in the party who deny science, mental health knowledge, and that others should have the right to live their lives as they - not the Christianists - choose. A piece in today's Washington Post looks at what is happening and the conclusions are not good for Republicans. For the rest of us, it hopefully means that the poisonous influence of the Christian Right will lessen even though it will not disappear. Here are some highlights:

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For the past few months, political analysts and demographers have been poring over the results of the 2008 election and comparing them with presidential results from the past two decades. From whatever angle of their approach -- age, race, economic status, geography -- they have come to a remarkably similar conclusion. Almost all indicators are pressing the Republicans into minority status.

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What has brought this about? It's not just one thing -- it's everything. Start with the Democrats' success in the suburbs. Lang's formula is that demography and density have combined to help Democrats: They dominate not just the cities but also the urbanized suburbs that contain the largest share of the suburban population in America.

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Democratic strength in the counties around Philadelphia, around Detroit and in Northern Virginia have squeezed Republicans dramatically. Increasingly, Republican strength outside the urban areas counts for less. "There's just not enough rural folks and small-city people left in America in the key states that determine the electoral college to offset that difference," Lang said. "You're out of people."

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That's one geographical reality. The other, which became acute in 2008, is that outside the South, Republicans are in trouble. . . . . The South now accounts for a greater share of Republican strength than at virtually any time since the party's founding. That base is too narrow, as even Republicans know.

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Demographically, the forces at work have chipped away at what was once a GOP-leaning majority in the country. The most important is minorities' rising share of the vote. Whites accounted for 76 percent of the overall electorate last November, down from 85 percent in 1988. . . . Opposing Judge Sonia Sotomayor, Obama's Supreme Court nominee, because of her pride in being a Latina won't help solve that problem.
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Younger voters are more diverse demographically than older voters. In 2008, 62 percent were white, compared with 74 percent eight years earlier. Projections show young voters will become increasingly diverse. They are also less religious and more culturally liberal, two indicators of Democratic support.

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GOP strategist Mike Murphy described this in Time magazine as a coming Republican ice age. Republicans will need a major shift to begin to reverse these trends.

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Can the GOP change? Personally, I doubt it as long as the Party remains beholden to and largely controlled by the lunatic Christianist element that refuses to accept objective reality.