Unfriendly Winds for the GOP

I talk a lot about what has happened to the GOP since the days years ago when I was a GOP activist. I believe that two forces in particular have been in play that are somewhat intertwined: the rising influence of the Christian Right in the Part and the Party's ever increasing refusal to accept objective reality that times and the country's demographics are changing. In my view, much of refusal to face reality seems from the Christianists in the party who deny science, mental health knowledge, and that others should have the right to live their lives as they - not the Christianists - choose. A piece in today's Washington Post looks at what is happening and the conclusions are not good for Republicans. For the rest of us, it hopefully means that the poisonous influence of the Christian Right will lessen even though it will not disappear. Here are some highlights:

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For the past few months, political analysts and demographers have been poring over the results of the 2008 election and comparing them with presidential results from the past two decades. From whatever angle of their approach -- age, race, economic status, geography -- they have come to a remarkably similar conclusion. Almost all indicators are pressing the Republicans into minority status.

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What has brought this about? It's not just one thing -- it's everything. Start with the Democrats' success in the suburbs. Lang's formula is that demography and density have combined to help Democrats: They dominate not just the cities but also the urbanized suburbs that contain the largest share of the suburban population in America.

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Democratic strength in the counties around Philadelphia, around Detroit and in Northern Virginia have squeezed Republicans dramatically. Increasingly, Republican strength outside the urban areas counts for less. "There's just not enough rural folks and small-city people left in America in the key states that determine the electoral college to offset that difference," Lang said. "You're out of people."

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That's one geographical reality. The other, which became acute in 2008, is that outside the South, Republicans are in trouble. . . . . The South now accounts for a greater share of Republican strength than at virtually any time since the party's founding. That base is too narrow, as even Republicans know.

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Demographically, the forces at work have chipped away at what was once a GOP-leaning majority in the country. The most important is minorities' rising share of the vote. Whites accounted for 76 percent of the overall electorate last November, down from 85 percent in 1988. . . . Opposing Judge Sonia Sotomayor, Obama's Supreme Court nominee, because of her pride in being a Latina won't help solve that problem.
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Younger voters are more diverse demographically than older voters. In 2008, 62 percent were white, compared with 74 percent eight years earlier. Projections show young voters will become increasingly diverse. They are also less religious and more culturally liberal, two indicators of Democratic support.

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GOP strategist Mike Murphy described this in Time magazine as a coming Republican ice age. Republicans will need a major shift to begin to reverse these trends.

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Can the GOP change? Personally, I doubt it as long as the Party remains beholden to and largely controlled by the lunatic Christianist element that refuses to accept objective reality.

Cry in the Wilderness of a GOP Moderate

I have commented often on what has happened to the Republican Party over the years since I resigned from the party as it began to fall under Christianist control. It's not a pretty picture and those moderate members of the Party who remain are headed towards extinction unless someone is elected to leadership who can stop the exodus of rational, educated, and non-religious zealots from the GOP. Politico has an interesting column by one of the endangered species GOP moderates calling for a return to rationality in the Party and also reciting statistics that should wake up Republicans - at least whatever non-Kool-Aid drinkers who are still left. Here are some highlights:

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On Friday, the 168 members of the Republican National Committee will vote on a new party chairman. After what can only be described as disastrous outcomes of the past two election cycles, lifelong Republicans like me held hope that we have finally learned that the key to winning is being inclusive and true to our limited government core. I had hoped that the RNC members would focus on the pressing bread-and-butter issues facing our country and our party.

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[T]he debate among the candidates for RNC chairman is more of the same: a call to energize the right wing of the party, despite the fact that this hyper-ideological, so-called base no longer represents the majority of GOP voters. And, as a consequence, vilify anyone who does not pledge 100 percent allegiance to an exclusionary social agenda. . . . The RNC members continue to pander to a small, vocal, fundamentalist faction instead of revamping its message, mission and agenda to appeal to a broader base of voters. All of this bodes ill for the GOP.

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According to national exit polls, the Republican brand lost with the two largest voting blocs in the country: women and moderates. Self-described moderates — who make up 44 percent of the electorate — gave Barack Obama a 21-point advantage over John McCain. Women gave Obama a 13-point advantage (56 percent to 43 percent). The GOP won the male vote only 49 percent to 48 percent, a negligible difference. Voters under 30, the future of both parties, gave Obama a landslide victory (66 percent to 32 percent). . . . These facts seem to be either ignored or not enough for our party leaders to see that the base is changing.

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[T]he reality that the reason the Democratic Party is the majority in Congress and in the White House is that they ran on a platform of inclusiveness and diversity. Our newly elected president took the oath of office sounding like a “big-tent” Republican — calling for common-sense solutions, leaner budgets, a reduction in government waste and greater personal responsibility — because he knew that these are the beliefs of the majority of voters. Meanwhile, the GOP is looking to repair its party by doing just the opposite: excluding voters, ignoring issues of concern and exhibiting an inability to provide common-sense solutions.

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The newly elected chairman must welcome diverse views on heartfelt social issues while remaining true to core Republican principles of limited government, individual responsibility and personal freedom. If the party cannot do this, there will be no Republican Party to fight over in the future.

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Personally, I do not see rationality returning to the GOP any time soon. Not when the lunatic base continues to weld too much power over the leadership. Therefore, perhaps the best solution is for the GOP to cease to be a national party either until it comes to its senses or is replaced by a new moderate conservative party not controlled by religious extremists.