Virginia Primary Results Send Shock Waves Through Richmond and Washington.

As the dust settles following yesterday's primary election in Virginia, much of the talk that had preceded it about a divided Democrat Party - much of it whipped up by pundits from outside Virginia - seems to have been off base.  In contrast, it is the Republican Party that appears to be divided with a very large number of GOP voters proving to be more extreme and racist than the pundits predicted.   Ed Gillespie's predicted 20+ point victory turned out to be barely more than 1%.   To me, a roughly 25 year veteran of the political trenches, first as a Republican and now more as a de facto Democrat given the extremism and ugliness of the GOP, a couple of lessons stand out.  First, it is ALWAYS about turn out and it is crucial to have a grassroots operation in place to get folks to the polls. With a strong get out the vote operation, Northam was able to win over 72% of the vote in the City of Hampton, for example.  Second, Donald Trump (who has a 36% approval rate) remains toxic for Republicans in Virginia outside of more extreme GOP circles such as Corey Stewart's base of support.  Cutting funding for the Chesapeake Bay restoration, slashing programs that assist people in Appalachia, fanning racism, and pandering to religious extremists  simply does not play well in Virginia anymore.  If Democrats tie Gillespie and Republicans to Trump in November, it could be a bloodbath of Republicans.  A piece Politico looks at the shock waves from yesterday's vote.  Here are excerpts:  

The establishment favorites won in Virginia Tuesday, but the results still sent shock waves through Richmond and Washington.

The state’s gubernatorial primaries were expected to feature a tight race on the Democratic side between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and ex-Rep. Tom Perriello, while former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie was supposed to romp in his race against Donald Trump-inspired Corey Stewart, the former chairman of the president’s campaign in Virginia.

But Northam won easily and early, and it was Gillespie who barely squeaked out a win, sending fear through the heart of the Republican establishment that wrote Stewart off early. The number of ballots cast stunned operatives on both sides: Democratic turnout skyrocketed, reaching nearly 170 percent of what it was last time there was a contested primary in 2009.

It all sets up a titanic battle for the governorship in November, with Northam now favored over a bruised Gillespie.

Here are POLITICO’s five takeaways from Virginia’s contest:

It's always about Trump: Gillespie barely mentioned Trump on the campaign trail.The Trump political apparatus didn’t lift a finger for Stewart. If anything, Stewart drew more mention in the press for his pro-Confederate statements than his ties to Trump.

Even so, the story of the night was Stewart’s shocking strength against someone with vastly more money, name recognition, and appeal to mainstream voters — suggesting that the Trump effect is alive and well in the state where he won the primary last year.

For mainstream Republicans, it may mean that their turnout models need tweaking, as they consistently underestimate the enthusiasm and turnout of Stewart-style Trump voters. For Gillespie, it means the coming months will likely have to be spent trying to win over voters he assumed would be with him, rather than tacking to the middle against Northam.

It's more complicated than Hillary vs. Bernie: It may be tempting to read Northam’s win as yet another victory for the Democratic establishment. But the primary in Virginia underscored that the party’s new reality isn’t so clear-cut.

While some national pundits tried to cast the race as a redux of 2016’s Hillary Clinton vs. Bernie Sanders presidential primary — with Northam playing the role of insider favorite and Perriello as the insurgent — the fault lines were murkier than that.

[M]any prominent local liberals were quick to rally behind the state’s no. 2 elected official, while the former congressman had the support of many Barack Obama allies.

A late-breaking endorsement from the Washington Post may have sealed the deal for Northam. Perriello’s own internal numbers showed him dipping 12 points in the week after, according to a Democrat close to the campaign.

[T]he [Democrat] party simply has a different set of internal questions to resolve. Those include whether simply running with the “insurgent" label is enough to get the attention of sufficient voters to cause a real stir, and whether past breaks from party orthodoxy — like Perriello’s on abortion and gun control — are enough to doom a bid.

Democratic Party enthusiasm is very real:  One defining characteristic of the Trump era has been the consistently surprising energy from Democrats eager to oppose him. That’s true among activists and also in states that have held elections this year. The high Democratic turnout on Tuesday continued a trend that was highlighted last week in New Jersey — where the party primary attracted higher-than-expected turnout even though the race wasn’t competitive.

That bodes well for his [Notham's] general election chances. If Democrats are going to mount a comeback in the Trump era, governor's mansions must be a big part of it.

What does it mean for 2018 — and 2020?  Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, who has been facing the prospect of a tough GOP challenge next year, is breathing easier after watching Democrats turn out in such massive numbers while the Republican establishment pick struggled in a much-lower turnout primary.

Another big winner not named Northam or Gillespie on Tuesday: Gov. Terry McAuliffe, whose national ambitions got a boost from Northam’s big win. . . . . A big Northam win suggests that McAuliffe remains popular with the Democratic voting base, and burnishes the governor’s stature. . .

The ghost of Eric Cantor:  Gillespie’s close call immediately reminded Virginians and political professionals alike of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning loss in his House race three years ago — another establishment favorite stunned in Virginia by a come-from-nowhere insurgency.

In Cantor’s case, the win by now-Rep. Dave Brat foreshadowed a broader uprising within the party. In Gillespie’s case, the near-loss in a low-turnout, low-attention race now forces GOP leaders and lawmakers alike to reevaluate their positioning ahead of 2018. . . . if Gillespie — a former national chairman and Republican stalwart who was forecast to win by at least 20 points — is vulnerable to an unexpected Trump-inspired challenger, is anyone really safe?

Ralph Northam - The Best Choice for Governor on June 13, 2017

Your's truly with Ralph Northam and his wife, Pam Northam

With the news that Robert S. Mueller III, a former prosecutor who served as the FBI director from 2001 to 2013, has been appointed as special prosecutor  to investigate Trump campaign/Russia ties and seemingly Trump's efforts to thwart the FBI investigations of the possible collusion with Russian agents and/or Vladimir Putin, it should be glaringly obvious that the character of a candidate matters immensely,  That includes a candidates' integrity when it comes to being true to past positions rather than masquerading as something new simply to attract votes.  The following is a cross post of my May, 2017, column in VEER Magazine which makes the argument that Lt. Governor Ralph Northam is the best choice for the Democrat gubernatorial nomination and why people need to vote for Ralph Northam on June 13th  (read the entire piece at VEER):

I grew up in a family that was politically involved.  For roughly 25 years I have been in the political trenches, first as a Republican where I was a city committee member for the Republican Party of Virginia Beach and a precinct captain, and then as an independent with strong Democrat leanings after the Republican Party became something akin to a reprehensible sectarian party.  I even ran for Virginia Beach school board in 1994 only to be labeled "Christian Right" by the Virginia Beach Education Association.  I guess I've had the last laugh on that fabricated story line.

 

Through all my years of political involvement, one thing that I learned is that it is critical to research candidates and make sure that they are what they claim to be in campaign ads and to verify their claimed political positions on issues. Many are not what they claim and will change their supposed stances if they deem it politically expedient for their own benefit.  Never mind that their past voting records and positions are readily available for those willing to take a few minutes to do some homework and/or check out campaign web pages.  Too many people simply do not take the time. Indeed, many of my "friends" who voted for Donald Trump and who have since feigned shock over his anti-LGBT agenda as evidenced by rescission of many Obama era protections and his new and falsely named "religious freedom" executive order that allows tax-exempt anti-gay churches to engage in political activity, never took the requisite time to see who/what they were actually voting for.  The "religious freedom" executive order makes every citizen, including LGBT individuals, indirectly underwrite churches that peddle hatred as they stock in trade.   Now, these "friends" want me to "forgive and forget" - something that will not happen.

 

While we cannot undo the results of the 2016 presidential election, we do have an opportunity to make sure that similar mistakes do not occur this November when Virginia will elect new statewide officials, including the governor and attorney general, and all of the members of the House of Delegates.  With the Trump/Pence regime and a Republican controlled Congress posing an ongoing threat to Virginia's economy and the civil rights of all of its citizens - not just angry whites and or Christian extremists - electing a Democrat to Virginia's governor's mansion in November 2017, is more important than ever.  Indeed, a Democrat in the governor's mansion may be one of the few firewalls available to guard against the worse agendas coming out of the White House and the GOP controlled Congress.

 

For me, the man best suited for the position is Lt. Governor Ralph Northam, a man who I have known since he launched his first campaign for the Virginia Senate and who has held fast to his principles and ideals.  Yet, seemingly out of nowhere a possible wrench has been thrown into Virginia Democrats' plan for an orderly, uncontested race to nominate Ralph Northam for the party's 2017 gubernatorial nomination.  That wrench is one term Congressman Tom Perriello, who only served from 2009 to 2011 before losing to a right wing tea party candidate.  Perriello has challenged Lt. Governor Ralph Northam for the party nomination and is parading himself around Virginia as the "progressive" candidate in the contest and holding himself out as the best choice for forward looking Virginians.  Based on my research to date, Perriello's claims simply are not true.

 

Worse yet, in my view, Perriello's entrance into the contest is serving only three purposes: (i) to divide the party in Democrat Virginia - much as Bernie Sanders did in the 2016 presidential race, (ii) to divert funds that would be better spent on the general election against the eventual Republican opponent, and (ii) fan the vanities of Perriello and his out of state endorsers such as Sanders and Elizabeth Warren who seemingly have not done their homework when it comes to Perriello.  What is most disturbing is that, if the Republicans should win the governor's mansion in November, 2017, the consequences for many Virginians will be horrific.  LGBT rights, women's rights and minority rights will have no firewall to stop the ugliest efforts of the currently Republican controlled House of Delegates or to push back against the most egregious Trump/Pence initiatives.  Look no farther than North Carolina to see what GOP control of the governor's mansion could mean. All so that Perriello, Sanders and Warren can satisfy their egos?

 

I will be blunt.  I do not believe that Perriello can win against someone like the heavily funded GOP gubernatorial front runner, Ed Gillespie and, if that happens, the outcome will harm Virginians and Virginia's economy for years to come.  Tom Perriello claims that he has broad grassroots support, yet nearly 60% of Perriello's campaign funds raised to date has come from sources outside of Virginia as have all of his major endorsements. 

 

In sharp contrast, virtually all of Virginia's major domestic Democrats have endorsed Lt. Governor Ralph Northam in the coming Democrat primary. Why? Several reasons, in my view. First, because Northam is a steady candidate with years of experience unlike Perriello, a two year flash in the pan, despite Warren's efforts to fluff his resume.  Second, Northam has been in the trenches for years and has helped other Democrat candidates and worked with the party's grassroots, if you will.  My husband and I have been in those trenches for years (I confess I've turned him into an activist), have been on host committees and given money over and over again. Perriello has been nowhere to be seen in Virginia or in Virginia politics.  Third, Northam is right on the issues - including LGBT rights which Perriello barely mentions in passing on his campaign website - and brings the much needed perspective of a physician into play.  

 

Most disturbing, however, is the fact that Perriello is not being honest with primary voters about his actual record.  While arguably progressive on a few economic issues, the rest of his stances and voting record are anything but progressive.  Here's a sampling of what Slate.com had to say earlier in the year about Perriello's less than truthful storyline (emphasis mine):

 

But this narrative isn’t quite right. Northam may have crafted a moderate image, but in reality he is a fierce advocate for liberal causes who hews closely to the Democratic platform. And Perriello, for all his progressive bona fides, has a voting record that clashes with the party’s current support for gun safety measures and, more importantly, reproductive rights.  During his unsuccessful 2010 re-election campaign, Perriello boasted of his A rating from the National Rifle Association, which was a result of his opposition to an assault weapons ban.

 

When then–Attorney General Eric Holder proposed reinstating the ban, Perriello wrote a letter to Obama asserting that “to even consider reinstating an ‘assault weapon’ ban is an affront to our Founding Fathers, who so clearly understood the importance of the ordinary citizens' right to keep and bear arms.”

 

Perriello’s anti-abortion record will be harder to explain. In 2009, Perriello voted for the odious Stupak amendment, a dramatic extension of the infamous Hyde amendment. The Stupak amendment would’ve prohibited insurance companies that participate in the Affordable Care Act’s exchanges from covering abortion.

 

Five Thirty Eight blog hasn't been much kinder to Perriello and has looked at Perriello's recent gyrations to disavow - and distract voters from - his past positions:

 

This desire to win over activists might account for a number of position shifts Perriello has made of late. In January, he pilloried the NRA as “nut-job extremist organization” in the post-Sandy Hook era, but during his time in Congress, he received campaign funds and an “A” rating from the organization. In January, Virginia GOP chairman John Whitbeck made a sneering prediction about Perriello’s stance on offshore drilling, which he had supported while in Congress: “I look forward to yet another heart-felt, tear filled Jimmy Swaggart-style Facebook post in which Tom Perriello repents for his previous sins.

 

On offshore drilling, Perriello also voted against increasing safety standards at offshore drilling rigs after the BP oil spill.  On immigration, Perriello is equally duplicitous and must be channeling Donald Trump as his model.  America Rising had this to say (emphasis mine):

 

During his short gubernatorial campaign, Perriello has already flip-flopped on off-shore drilling, government funding of abortions, and Second Amendment rights. Now Perriello has added immigration to that already voluminous list of flip-flops. According to Politico, Perriello now supports immigration reform and the DREAM Act, but when he ran for Congress Perriello was a supporter of undocumented immigrants “self-deporting.”

 

Yes, you read that correctly.  Perriello said immigrants should self-deport themselves.  He is equally disingenuous when it comes to the issue of gay rights.  In his 2008 congressional campaign, Perriello said that marriage should be defined between a man and a woman.  In contrast Lt. Governor Northam  supported marriage equality in his 2013 campaign.  In addition, he cast a tiebreaking vote in 2015 to advance legislation barring discrimination in state hiring on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity. Compare Northam's campaign web page with its entire section on LGBT rights and civil rights with Perriello's slim sentence on the entire issue of civil rights and the difference is glaring.

Suffice it to say, of the two, Ralph Northam - who as noted above I have known from the beginning of his state senate career - is the true progressive and the true LGBT ally and the right person to move Virginia forward as Governor of Virginia.  I urge you to go to the polls on June 13, 2017 in the Democrat primary and vote for Ralph Northam.  The 2016 presidential election should be a stark reminder of the consequences of staying home and not voting.  Ralph Northam will not disappoint you.

Elections, including primaries matter and directly impact our lives.  PLEASE get out and vote for Ralph Northam on June 13, 2017!

Are Perriello, Sanders and Warren Giving the GOP the Governor's Mansion?

With Ralph Northam, the right Democrat candidate for Virginia

As noted in a prior post, nearly 60% of Tom Perriello's campaign funds raised to date has come form sources outside of Virginia.  So have his major endorsements, including Senator Elizabeth Warren who frankly just lost my vote should she run for national office.  Virtually all of Virginia's major domestic Democrats have endorsed Lt. Governor Ralph Northam in the coming Democrat primary. Why? Several reasons, in my view.  First, because Northam is a steady candidate with years of experience unlike Perriello, a two year flash in the pan, despite Warren's efforts to fluff his resume.  Second, Northam has been in the trenches for years and has helped other Democrat candidates and worked with the party's grassroots, if you will.  The husband and I have been in those trenches, have been on host committees and given money over and over again.  Perriello has been nowhere to be seen.  Third, Northam is right on the issues - including LGBT rights which Perriello barely mentions - and brings the much needed perspective of a physician into play.  

Perriello's entrance into that contest is serving only three purposes: (i) to divide the party in Democrat Virginia - much as Bernie Sanders did in the 2016 presidential race, (ii) to divert funds that would be better spent on the general election against the eventual Republican opponent, and (ii) fan the vanities of Perriello and his out of state endorsers.  If the Republicans should win the governor's mansion in November, 2017, the consequences for many Virginians will be horrific.  LGBT rights, women's rights and minority rights will have to firewall to stop the ugliest efforts of the currently Republican controlled house.  Look no farther than North Carolina to see what GOP control of the governor's mansion could mean. All so that Perriello, Sanders and Warren can satisfy their egos?

While Virginia has "gone blue" in the last three presidential race, many Virginia Democrats continue to be somewhat conservative by national standards.  A so-called ulta-progressive candidate - which is what Perriello labels himself as despite no efforts to attract involved LGBT supporters - will likely not fare as well as one who is a bit more traditional.  Let's not forget that Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders by 228,404 votes in the 2016 Democrat primary.  She went on to beat Donald Trump in Virginia by 212,030 votes in the general election.  "Traditional" candidates who have evolved on key issues win in Virginia.  Bernie Sanders himself proved this.  I do not believe that Perriello can win against someone like the heavily funded Ed Gillespie and, if that happens, the outcome will harm Virginians and Virginia's economy for years to come.   

Please vote for Ralph Northam on June  13, 2017.  Don't be fooled by out of state endorsements driven by other agendas.