The GOP Base - Wrath of the Conned

I and others have repeatedly said that the rise of Donald Trump is something that was created by the so-called Republican establishment which for decades now, especially over the last 15+ years, has used calls to racism, homophobia and other forms of hatred to dupe voters into voting for a party's whose agenda is diametrically opposed the the economic interests of those voters.  Moreover, in order to win short term electoral victories, every kind of right wing extremist - nasty, ignorance embracing people my Republican grand parents would never have affiliated with - were welcomed with open arms into the GOP.  Now, the so-called establishment has lost control of the monster that it nurtured and unleashed on the nation.  A column in the New York Times looks at the phenomenon and contrasts it with the Democrat experience.  Here are excerpts:

Both parties make promises to their bases. But while the Democratic establishment more or less tries to make good on those promises, the Republican establishment has essentially been playing bait-and-switch for decades. And voters finally rebelled against the con.

First, about the Democrats: Their party defines itself as the protector of the poor and the middle class, and especially of nonwhite voters. Does it fall short of fulfilling this mission much of the time?   Are its leaders sometimes too close to big-money donors? Of course. Still, if you look at the record of the Obama years, you see real action on behalf of the party’s goals.

Above all, you have the Affordable Care Act, which has given about 20 million Americans health insurance, with the gains biggest for the poor, minorities and low-wage workers. That’s what you call delivering for the base — and it’s surely one reason nonwhite voters have overwhelmingly favored Mrs. Clinton over a challenger who sometimes seemed to dismiss that achievement.

Maybe you think Democrats could and should have done more, but what the party establishment says and what it does are at least roughly aligned.

Things are very different among Republicans. Their party has historically won elections by appealing to racial enmity and cultural anxiety, but its actual policy agenda is dedicated to serving the interests of the 1 percent, above all through tax cuts for the rich — whicheven Republican voters don’t support, while they truly loathe elite ideas like privatizing Social Security and Medicare.

What Donald Trump has been doing is telling the base that it can order à la carte. He has, in effect, been telling aggrieved white men that they can feed their anger without being forced to swallow supply-side economics, too.

Yes, his actual policy proposals still involve huge tax cuts for the rich, but his supporters don’t know that — and it’s possible that he doesn’t, either. Details aren’t his thing.

Establishment Republicans have tried to counter his appeal by shouting, with growing hysteria, that he isn’t a true conservative. And they’re right, at least as they define conservatism. But their own voters don’t care.

If there’s a puzzle here, it’s why this didn’t happen sooner. One possible explanation is the decadence of the G.O.P. establishment, which has become ingrown and lost touch. Apparatchiks who have spent their whole careers inside the bubble of right-wing think tanks and partisan media may suffer from the delusion that their ideology is actually popular with real people. And this has left them hapless in the face of a Trumpian challenge.

Probably more important, however, is the collision between demography and Obama derangement. The elite knows that the party must broaden its appeal as the electorate grows more diverse — in fact, that was the conclusion of the G.O.P.’s 2013 post-mortem. But the base, its hostility amped up to 11 after seven years of an African-American president (who the establishment has done its best to demonize) is having none of it.

The point, in any case, is that the divergent nomination outcomes of 2016 aren’t an accident. The Democratic establishment has won because it has, however imperfectly, tried to serve its supporters. The Republican establishment has been routed because it has been playing a con game on its supporters all along, and they’ve finally had enough.

And yes, Mr. Trump is playing a con game of his own, and they’ll eventually figure that out, too. But it won’t happen right away, and in any case it won’t help the party establishment.

GOP Establishment on the Ropes

As Hillary Clinton begins her pivot toward the general election in November, the so-called GOP establishment finds itself on the ropes and seemingly in a death spiral as the lunatic party base that it nurtured for years and whose ugliness was ignored with winks and nods continues to rally to Donald Trump.  While last nights primary results kept Ted Cruz and John Kasich in the GOP nomination contest, the chances of stopping Trump seem to be fading.  Having watched Trump's fact free, ego filled "speech" last night, it is hard to believe how low logic, reason, and objective reality have disappeared from the GOP.  A piece in Politico looks at the desperate situation of the so-called GOP establishment.  Here are excerpts:

The Republican establishment is just about out of candidates — and if the delegate math is tough for Donald Trump, it’s far worse for everyone else.

The donors who pumped millions into an anti-Trump campaign are now assessing whether to continue the fight. And while some mainstream Republicans are girding for a likely floor fight at the July convention, others are losing their resolve.

“Only in the minds of the delusional DC establishment is there a brokered convention at this point,” said Tony Fabrizio, a longtime GOP pollster who advised Rand Paul’s campaign. “And if the elites try and steal the nomination from Trump, the riots at the ’68 Democratic Convention will look like a garden party.”

By taking Florida, along with Illinois, North Carolina and the North Marianas Islands (Missouri was still too close to call), Trump racked up more than 200 additional delegates, increasing his lead and further dimming the hopes of those desperate to stop him.

Tuesday night delivered more carnage for mainstream Republicans when Trump steamrolled Marco Rubio, long thought to personify the party’s future, in the senator’s home state of Florida.

“The goal for most of us at this point is to keep delegates away from Trump, and it really doesn’t matter who wins them,” said Charlie Black, a longtime GOP operative who just signed on as an adviser to Kasich’s campaign as it approaches a contested convention. “There are delegates who will be bound to Trump on the first ballot or the first two ballots who aren’t going to be for Trump once they’re free. If you get to a third ballot, the world changes.”

The Republican Party’s #NeverTrump movement, after spending $15 million in Florida and not putting so much as a dent in Donald Trump’s armor, has only a few unpalatable options left: uniting behind Cruz, long a loathsome thorn in the establishment’s side, or pinning their hopes on a long shot like Kasich and girding for a messy fight at the RNC’s convention that could further fracture the GOP beyond repair.

“With Kasich winning Ohio, a contested convention is more likely than ever,” said one Republican operative in Washington. “The backside shadow campaign for delegates who will come to you on the second and third ballots begins.”

the party is not about to roll over for Trump, especially with his negatives rising higher amid a spate of violent skirmishes between his supporters and protesters at several recent rallies. In fact, there’s rising chatter on Capitol Hill that the party could nominate Ryan himself at the convention.  “He probably wouldn’t [do it] but everyone thinks he’s Republican Jesus,” said one GOP Senate staffer.

A number of prominent Republican Party donors who funded the anti-Trump campaign, including New York City hedge fund manager Paul Singer and the Chicago Cubs-owning Ricketts family, plan to gather in Florida later this week for a private meeting.

But many establishment Republicans aren’t convinced Cruz’s chances in a general election are any better than Trump’s. With Rubio’s collapse, they’re coming to grips with the fact that the party’s best chance of taking back the White House may come not in November of 2016 but 2020.

Is GOP Race Now Between Cruz and Trump?

The prospect of the GOP narrowing down to a race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz illustrates how far the GOP has fallen.  Lowell at Blue Virginia aptly describes the contest as a "fascistic, bigoted thug vs. theocratic extremist wacko."  If this indeed becomes the defining contest of the nomination, the so-called GOP establishment will truly be reaping what it sowed when the Christofascists and other extremists were voted onto local city and county committees as I observed in my last days on the City Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia Beach.  The lesson is that you NEVER allow extremists and those who reject objective reality onto official party bodies. Never, ever. A piece in the Washington Post looks at the scary prospect of one of these two extremists securing the nomination.  Here are highlights: 

As the presidential primary race moves into a more urgent and combative phase, there is growing acceptance among Republicans, including the Washington and financial elite, that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are the two candidates most likely to become the party’s nominee.

Long expected to become a race between an outsider and an establishment candidate, it is coming down instead as one between two outsiders, with dwindling time for their rivals to change the trajectory before the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1.

There is hope that one of the four establishment candidates may emerge as a consensus choice and consolidate support. The two who seem best positioned to do so, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie . . . .

“Trump and Cruz sucked all the oxygen out of the room, which is bad news for the establishment folks,” said Barry Bennett, a veteran GOP strategist who recently resigned as campaign manager to Ben Carson. “It doesn’t look like much is going to stop them. They’re in a tier off to themselves, and I think our nominee is going to be Cruz or Trump.”

Republican donors,  . . . . are suddenly adjusting their thinking and strategies.
 
Spencer Zwick, the national finance chairman for Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, said power brokers and financiers are now trying to cozy up to Trump in various ways, such as reaching out through mutual friends in New York’s business community.

“A lot of donors are trying to figure their way into Trump’s orbit. There is a growing feeling among many that he may be the guy, so people are certainly seeing if they can find a home over there,” he said.

Trump says he is rejecting large campaign donations, though he has relied heavily on small-dollar donations as well as his own money to fund his campaign.   Cruz, who has a more traditional finance operation, is aggressively courting establishment financiers. 

Their debate-night argument over whether the Canadian-born Cruz meets the constitutional requirements to serve as president spilled onto the campaign trail Friday in Iowa, where Trump revived his so-called “birther” attack in a CNN interview. He also hit Cruz over his recent admission that he had failed to properly disclose a loan during his 2012 Senate campaign.

Meanwhile, Cruz is starting to make an assertive case that Trump is an untrustworthy and unprincipled conservative. At the debate, the senator raised Trump’s past claim that he had “New York values,” charging that his once-liberal views on social issues were out of step with red America.

Some outside strategists are less bullish on Cruz, however. Eric Fehrnstrom, a former Romney adviser, said Trump remains in “total command of the field.” He said Cruz has yet to put the issue of his constitutional eligibility to rest and suggested he “produce his own expert,” such as retired Supreme Court justice Sandra Day O’Connor, to issue a statement confirming Cruz’s qualifications.

Marco Rubio Fear Mongers to Chritofascists

With the leading hate merchants of the "Christian Right" falling in line behind the always foul Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio is making a new push to utterly prostitute himself to America's Christian Taliban.  In a new ad, Marco plays on the delusions of the elements of the religious extremist party base who feel persecuted if their ability to persecute and debase others is in anyway challenged. These folks - and apparently Rubio - have no problem making others feel out of place in their own country, but god forbid that they cannot inflict their beliefs and views on others.   CNN looks at Rubio's whore like self-prostitution.  Here are highlights:

Marco Rubio is making a play for "traditional values" voters with a new campaign ad targeting those who Rubio says "feel out of place in our own country."

Challenged by the rise of GOP rival Ted Cruz, Rubio appears to be going after the same bloc of social conservative voters that has propelled Cruz to first place in Iowa in recent polls and previously buoyed Donald Trump and Ben Carson's campaigns.

In the spare new 30-second ad, titled "About," Rubio speaks directly to the camera as he frames the stakes of the 2016 election. 

"This election is about the essence of America," he says. "About all of us who feel out of place in our own country."

"A government incredibly out of touch, and millions with traditional values branded bigots and haters," Rubio said. 

The pitch is a pointed appeal to the Republican Party's social conservative base, which is critical to success in the Republican primary, and has been energized in recent years by political fights over same-sex marriage, religious liberty and abortion.

The question to me is this: when is Rubio going to get a tattoo on his forehead that says "I am a whore"?

Trump's Next Target: Ted Cruz

In some ways I find it difficult to decide who I find more despicable: Donald Trump or Ted Cruz.  Trump is engaging in demagoguery that would have done Benito Mussolini proud and pandering to the racism and bigotry so widespread in the GOP base.  Yet, Cruz is little better and is prostituting himself to the most extreme Christofascists on the party base when not seeking to channel the late Joe McCarthy.  Both are horrible individuals in my view and dangerous. Now, with Cruz having pulled ahead of Trump in the Iowa polls - even as Trump hits new highs in GOP national polls - a potentially delicious moment is before us: Trump trying to destroy Cruz.  Politico looks at the coming dueling of demagogues and hate merchants.  I hope they destroy each other.  Here are excerpts:

Donald Trump wants to pick a fight with Ted Cruz. Cruz wants no part of it.

As the top two presidential contenders in most national polls prepare to square off in the CNN debate Tuesday night, one of the most important sub-dramas will be Trump’s attempts to engage Cruz -- and Cruz’s efforts to avoid getting drawn in.

Cruz fears alienating Trump’s supporters, having painstakingly positioned himself to take possession of the mogul’s large following should Trump’s backers decide he is unfit for the presidency. 

For months, Cruz has referred to Trump as his “friend,” chided the media for asking about contrasts with the real estate mogul, and dismissed other Republican candidates who “go out of their way to smack Donald with a stick.”

Now, with Cruz rising in the polls, Trump is suddenly recognizing him as more threat than friend, and the billionaire has gone on the offensive against the Texas senator, opening up a challenging and potentially awkward new dynamic for Cruz headed into Tuesday’s Las Vegas encounter, when the two men will stand side by side onstage.

The senator confronts an odd balancing act: how to de-escalate tensions with Trump and not offend the national poll-leader’s supporters, while also avoiding seeming timid if Trump intensifies attacks, as he already has on a host of other GOP candidates.  . . . . It doesn’t seem to be in Cruz’s nature to go take a whole bunch of punches.” But Trump is increasingly trying to land them.

Over the weekend, Trump called Cruz a “maniac,” painting him as an intransigent force in the Senate, and repeatedly tweeted out critical comments about Cruz, who was recorded at a fundraiser last week privately raising questions about Trump’s judgment and experience, according to audio posted by the New York Times.

The issue is, Trump is going to go out and hammer Cruz really, really hard, as he likes to do, and Cruz better be prepared to hammer him just as hard right back — otherwise I don’t think Cruz is going to come out of this as well as he otherwise could.”

The kid-glove handling Cruz has used until now comes in large part from a desire to avoid alienating Trump’s supporters, who could be a natural Cruz constituency. Cruz is upfront about his approach.

Trump has a knack for knocking the candidates in his sights off message and for fanning damaging narratives about rivals — whether it was calling Jeb Bush “low energy” or raising questions about Ben Carson’s suitability to hold high office. And sooner or later, most observers expect them to come after Cruz even more aggressively.

“You never know what crazy thing is going to come out of his mouth,” said Jeff Miller, the campaign manager for Rick Perry, who was a frequent Trump target.

Yet a growing list of endorsements from influential conservatives in Iowa and elsewhere could serve to insulate Cruz should he come under serious fire from Trump, providing him with a circling-of-the-wagons defense that Trump's other targets could not muster. 

Tomorrow evening should prove entertaining even if the things coming out of the GOP candidates' mouths otherwise make you want to either throw up or throw something at the television. 

Ted Cruz's Scary Supporters

Listening to some pundits on satellite radio, some think the GOP presidential nomination contest will ultimately come down to "mainstream candidates" Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.  In what universe Ted Cruz is "mainstream" the pundits don't say.  Cruz is a demagogue and a very scary one at that.  He most certainly is no friend to LGBT Americans (he has tried to claim that the Colorado Springs shooter is transgender) or women, minorities, or non-religious extremists.  The good news is that some believe that his current rise in the polls is limited because of the nature of those in the GOP he attracts: "very conservative" Republicans which translates to members of the Christian Taliban and white supremacists, although I remain baffled as to why the latter support Cruz who is Hispanic.  A piece in the New York Times looks at the nature of Cruz's supporters and why, if we are lucky, his appeal will not translate outside of Iowa.  Here are excerpts:

Polls say Ted Cruz is gaining in Iowa, where two new ones show him reaching second place with around 20 percent of the vote. But the same polls suggest he has a big challenge: He has very little support outside of a growing base of self-described “very conservative” voters.

“Very conservative” voters can propel Mr. Cruz to victory in Iowa, a caucus state, but according to exit poll data from 2008 and 2012, those types of voters represent a smaller share of the electorate in every primary state. To win, he will need to broaden his appeal, count on a divided field or hope to face a candidate with even more limited appeal.

In the most recent Quinnipiac survey of Iowa, he had a large 16-point lead among voters who described themselves as “very conservative.” With 38 percent of their support, his strength there was greater than that of any other candidate in any ideological category. But he held the support of just 14 percent of “somewhat conservative” voters and a mere 6 percent of self-described moderate or liberal Republicans. The most recent national Quinnipiac survey showed the same basic breakdown in support for him.

Iowa is as good as it gets for a candidate like Mr. Cruz — “very conservative” voters represent 47 percent of the G.O.P. electorate there, according to exit polls in 2012. Self-described moderate and liberal voters represented just 17 percent of that electorate.

The electorate is so conservative because the delegate selection process begins with caucuses, which draw the most engaged, activist and conservative voters. In primary states, the electorate is very different. Across the Mississippi River in Wisconsin, moderate voters actually outnumber “very conservative” voters, 39 percent to 32 percent. There is not a single primary state where “very conservative” voters represent as  large a share of the electorate as they do in Iowa, according to exit and entrance polls. 

This is not to say that Mr. Cruz can’t win with something resembling his current coalition. But it does frame what would be a long and narrow path to the nomination.

To win, Mr. Cruz would have a few options. He could do so well among “very conservative” voters that he could swamp his challengers, especially if multiple candidates with more appeal among self-described moderate voters split the rest of the field.

The Cruz campaign seems cognizant of its narrow base; it has deftly focused on building a broader coalition from the very start, when he announced his candidacy at Liberty University, a Christian university in Virginia. The decision was made on the assumption that his victory depended on uniting his Tea Party base with the religious right — two large factions that, together, would represent something near a majority of the Republican electorate but that often split in Republican primaries.  

But so far, none of these efforts have shown up in the polls for Mr. Cruz. He has made gains mainly insofar as he has maximized his support among his most natural voters. His support among evangelicals appears to be partly a matter of overlap; evangelicals tend to be relatively conservative.

Ultimately, candidates who start with lopsided, factional appeal usually struggle to broaden their base, even when they’re viewed favorably throughout a party, like Bernie Sanders. But Mr. Cruz isn’t facing anyone like Hillary Rodham Clinton; indeed, the establishment-backed candidates are as weak as they have ever been at this stage. A strong factional candidate could win in a year like this.

Let's hope that Cruz finds it impossible to expand his scary base and ultimately fizzles out.

The 2016 Campaign May Be Lost Before the GOP Picks a Nominee

As a former GOP activist and one-time eight year member of the City Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia Beach, I continually cringe at what the Republican Party has become. With almost no exception, my entire family of former Republicans all find ourselves voting Democrat and opposing the GOP agenda of greed, the embrace of ignorance, racism, homophobia and religious extremism.  And then there is the 2016 clown car of GOP presidential candidates with Donald Trump being but the most obnoxious of the ugly options offered to voters.  A piece in Politico Magazine suggests that despite all the theatrics and smear ads that will be forth coming, the real outcome of the 2016 general elections i s likely to be decided long before November 2016.   Here are highlights:

[T]he end of the 2016 presidential election is actually much closer than you might think.

In every game there are decisive moments that determine the ultimate outcome. We like to think that presidential elections are dramatic fall campaigns pitting party against party, but the truth is that the most decisive moments often occur long before the general election kicks off.  If history is any guide, the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign will likely be determined before the Republican Party has even selected their nominee. That uncomfortable fact means that the longer and more divisive the Republican primary, the less likely the party will be to win back the White House in 2016.

In eight out of the last nine presidential elections these decisive periods of time can all be traced back to the run up to the general election . . . voters locked in their attitudes about the direction of the country, the state of their own well-being and the presidential candidates—and their political party—prior to the start of the general election.

[T]he job approval ratings of the incumbent president, regardless of whether they are running for reelection, serve as a proxy for the electorate’s mood and have historically been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes.  And the public’s view of the state of the economy and its expectations for the future are the strongest drivers of the job approval ratings of the sitting president. . . . when the incumbent president’s job approval fell below 40 percent prior to the start of the general election, their party lost each time.

[T]he media continue to place a relentless focus on the daily tracking polls—despite the fact that they have proven increasingly inaccurate over the last 20 years. The last presidential race is a good example. In 2012, reporters who followed the ups and downs of the tracking polls concluded that Romney had surged following the first presidential debate. But in reality Obama had already put the election away long before the Republicans had selected their nominee. Obama’s final 51 percent of the vote closely tracked his job approval numbers that remained steady and well within that range during the last year of his first term.

There is every indication that past trends will continue to hold in 2016 and that the outcome of the presidential election will come into focus well before the general election. During this period when voters are beginning to seriously contemplate the type of person they want to lead the country, the Republicans will likely be in the middle of a prolonged and messy internecine intra-party fight—a fight that the unique attributes of the 2016 election will likely make more vocal, extreme and prolonged than the party will wish.

This period of primaries and caucuses will be marked by a relentless barrage of negative ads by the candidates designed to drive down the image of their opponents. At the same time, Republicans will be focused on locking down the hearts and minds of their right-wing base voters rather than appealing for mainstream support. 

[T]here are a series of factors—when taken together—during this critical period that that will further complicate Republicans’ attempts to take back the White House.

First, and foremost, the battle for the Republican nomination for president is really an existential fight about the future direction of the party rather than merely a race to collect a majority of delegates. At its core this is an ideological fight with the ascendant tea party-inspired populist and libertarian wing of the party poised to take over the GOP. This Koch brothers-backed effort is being built, funded and operated outside the national political party structure.

Donald Trump is Terrifying the GOP

When Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination, many predicted that Trump would provide great entertainment and great angst for the GOP.  With new polls showing a bump in support for Trump - a clear confirmation of just how insane the GOP base has become - the terror among the so-called GOP establishment is growing.  The prospect they fear is that of Trump on the debate stage will prompt all kinds of lunacy and push other GOP candidates to join in the batshitery and damage the party's general election prospects.  Politico looks at the situation.  Here are excerpts:

All jokes aside, the Republican Party is officially afraid of Donald Trump.

He has virtually zero chance of winning the presidential nomination. But insiders worry that the loud-mouthed mogul is more than just a minor comedic nuisance on cable news; they fret that he’s a loose cannon whose rants about Mexicans and scorched-earth attacks on his rivals will damage the eventual nominee and hurt a party struggling to connect with women and minorities and desperate to win.

“Donald Trump is like watching a roadside accident,” said former George W. Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer. “Everybody pulls over to see the mess. And Trump thinks that’s entertainment. But running for president is serious. And the risk for the party is he tarnishes everybody.”

Those risks were amplified this week after a trio of polls showed him likely to earn a coveted invitation to the party’s debates, which ironically were restructured with the very goal of avoiding the circus-like atmosphere of 2012. Giving Trump a major platform just as the country is tuning in is not exactly the Big Tent the party’s bigwigs had in mind.

Trump currently sits in eighth place among Republicans, according to the RealClearPolitics’ average of national polls — ahead of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. And this week, he came in second in two New Hampshire polls and in a Fox News national poll, finishing behind only former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in all three.

Beyond that, there are concerns about what he’ll do once he’s on the stage — namely, go hard after the other Republican hopefuls and say incendiary things that will hurt the party.

Asked whether Trump will keep up the attacks, campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said he would. “They should be worried about Donald Trump,” Lewandowski said of the party establishment, before criticizing Rubio and Bush on several issues.

[A]bove all the Republican National Committee — whose self-assessment of the party’s failure in 2012 urged the importance of appealing to nonwhite voters, especially Hispanics, 71 percent of whom voted for President Barack Obama — is nervous about Trump’s rhetoric. He accused Mexican immigrants of being rapists and smuggling drugs in his announcement speech, and said at a January Republican cattle call in Iowa that half the undocumented immigrants in the U.S. are criminals. In 2011, he led the racially loaded calls for Obama to release his long-form birth certificate and, in April, blamed the president for the riots in Baltimore following the death of Freddie Gray.

“Most of the rank-and-file Republicans think, ‘What have we done to let a guy like Donald Trump on the debate stage?’” said one Iowa Republican activist with ties to the party. “When I saw the New Hampshire poll, I was like, ‘Oh my god.’”

The GOP has made a practice in more recent years of providing a platform for religious extremists, racists, and lunatics.  Donald Trump on the debate stage is the natural result of the GOP's embrace of ignorance and bigotry.  I hope Trump causes utter chaos during the GOP debates.