Virginia is becoming two different states. One consists of the urban areas in crescent running from the Northern Virginia centers of Alexandria, Fairfax County and Arlington and extending southward through Richmond before arching southeast to Hampton Roads (Charlottesville and Roanoke are islands off to the west). The other Virginia is comprised of everywhere else. The new Virginia, if you will, in the large metropolitan centers is progressive in relative terms and the GOP standard mantra of God, guns and gays simply no longer resonates. In the old Virginia, racism, religious extremism, and the embrace of backwardness still holds sway. Ironically areas like southwest Virginia bemoan their economic decline in a modern world yet are unwilling to leave the 1950's thus compounding the exodus of those who are educated and yearning for a better life. The Virginian Pilot looks at this divide that is only going to intensify. Here are highlights:
The seeds of Terry McAuliffe's gubernatorial victory blossomed in Virginia's population centers, where changing demographics are remaking the state's once-crimson political DNA.
Voters from Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia and the Richmond area formed an electoral backbone that made the Democrat the first governor elected from the party of the sitting president in 36 years. Election deficits in those regions spelled doom for Ken Cuccinelli, and they suggest cause for concern by his party as the political muscle of those communities swells.
While Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling concedes external factors may have played a role, he worries Republicans are flirting with disaster if they make excuses instead of adjusting to a state becoming more Democratic. "Were not going to get this party headed in the right direction until we understand we have a problem," said Bolling, who split with fellow Republican Cuccinelli after the latter's supporters orchestrated a takeover of the party nomination process last year.
Bolling maintains that Republicans' problems go deeper than this election. He points out that since 2005 the party has won just one statewide contest for president, U.S. Senate or governor: Bob McDonnell's 2009 gubernatorial victory. That was a red dot in a sea of blue outcomes over a span that saw Democrats claim the governor's mansion twice, Barack Obama carry Virginia twice, and the U.S. Senate elections of Jim Webb, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.
A look at the electoral map helps explain how McAuliffe turned the state Democratic only four years after McDonnell won in a landslide.
In South Hampton Roads, Chesapeake and Suffolk flipped from Republican to Democratic. Virginia Beach, the state's most populous city, stayed in the Republican column by a slim margin - 47.6 percent to 45.9 percent. In 2009, McDonnell carried the city with 64 percent.
In Northern Virginia, the state's most populous region, three counties - Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William - switched from red to blue. So did Henrico County in the Richmond area.
Together, the 5.6 million residents of those three regions account for more than two-thirds of the state's estimated 8.1 million residents. Not all are registered voters. Two university communities also flipped: Albemarle County near the University of Virginia and Montgomery County, home of Virginia Tech.
An election-eve poll of Hispanic and Asian- American voters yielded some clues to how Virginia's increasing diversity helped the Democratic ticket. Done by two groups that support liberalizing U.S. immigration laws, it showed overwhelming majorities of those voters - 66 percent of Hispanics and 63 percent of Asian- Americans - breaking for McAuliffe, who endorsed a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants in the country illegally.
Harry Wilson, a professor of public affairs at Roanoke College, said the demographic profile of this year's voters resembled that of the 2012 presidential election more than 2009: a declining percentage of whites, more minorities and a respectable turnout of young voters. "As the electorate becomes more diverse and younger, that clearly favors Democrats," he said.
Will the Republican Party of Virginia get the message and stop catering almost exclusively to religious zealots, white supremacists and those driven by greed? I doubt it. It will take more defeats to reinforce the message delivered in this year's elections. It ultimately comes down to a choice between the past and the future. The Virginia GOP clearly wants to return to the 1950's.
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