What to Watch in Virginia Today

The polls are now open in Virginia and hopefully the day will prove to be a catastrophe for the Republican Party of Virginia.  And, if such turns out to be the case, it will be critical that the religious extremists and Neanderthals of the Tea Party not escape responsibility for the lunatics that were nominated by the GOP due to these elements.  Meanwhile, it will be a fretful day for political junkies as efforts are made to try to get a sense for what is happening throughout the day.  One big indicator will be turnout.  If turn out is higher than predicted, it will likely bode ill for the GOP ticket of crazies.  Likewise, how the vote in Southwest Virginia splits will also be telling.  A piece in Politico looks at some of the things to watch for.  Here are excerpts:

Turnout.  If turnout drops substantially below the 40 percent mark – if all the nasty attack ads about legitimately flawed candidates leave a chunk of voters so depressed they decide to stay home or vote for the libertarian – we could be in for a more suspenseful election night than most are expecting.

With that in mind, here are the key things to watch as exit polling and returns come in.

Does McAuliffe have coattails?   Cuccinelli’s weakness at the top of the ticket has heightened GOP fears of a Democratic sweep.

Republican attorney general candidate Mark Obenshain is outperforming his running mates by a few points—trailing slightly but still in the hunt. But strategists agree he will almost certainly get wiped out if Cuccinelli loses by six points or more. Democrats say it’s even possible that they could oust Del. Bob Marshall, the social conservative responsible for many of the legislative controversies that have dogged Cuccinelli in Northern Virginia.

The outer exurbs of Northern Virginia are a good place to see if a tidal wave is in the making. Cuccinelli will get crushed in the inner D.C. suburbs of Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria, but he thinks he can hold his own in the outer suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William County.

Loudoun was long Republican, but it’s become much more competitive. McDonnell won the county, which includes Leesburg, by 22 points in 2009, but Obama carried it by 4.5 percent last year. The Democratic nominee for attorney general, Mark Herring, happens to represent the county in the state legislature.

Also watch Republican-leaning Chesapeake, a suburb of Norfolk on the coast. Obama got exactly 50 percent of the vote there last year after McDonnell won by 20 points. If Cuccinelli loses there, it’s going to be a blow out.

Will black voters show up without Obama on the ballot?  Some African-American leaders have expressed concern that black voters will stay home. If they do, the race will be much closer than the polls suggest.

The McAuliffe campaign has built a huge portion of its field program around mobilizing black voters. Former President Bill Clinton went into an overwhelmingly black section of Richmond to make an explicit pitch for the community to turn out, and Obama was only a little more subtle Sunday.

Is Sarvis a spoiler?  Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who ran for state Senate as a Republican in 2011, has pulled double digits in some polls largely by attacking Cuccinelli over his views on social issues like gay marriage.

A lot of people who tell pollsters they back Sarvis will probably stay home rather than vote for a candidate who has no shot of winning. But Cuccinelli hopes a bulk of them break his way out of a desire to beat McAuliffe.

Internal McAuliffe forecasts show the first 5 percent for Sarvis probably comes evenly from McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, but anything above that threshold comes two-to-one from the Republicans.

How big is the gender gap? McAuliffe is outspending Cuccinelli 10-to-1 on TV in the final days. His ads have suggested the Republican would outlaw common forms of birth control, toughen the requirements to get divorced and make it nearly impossible to get an abortion. Cuccinelli says these claims are ridiculous, but he chose not to spend what precious resources he had on defense.

An unmarried woman shopping recently at Trader Joe’s in Centreville, part of Cuccinelli’s old state Senate district, revealed the extent of his problems. Stevie McCauley, a high school guidance counselor, voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney, but she supports McAuliffe. “It’s choice, it’s gay rights, it’s birth control,” she said. “In general, I try to stay away from people who tell me what to do.” Other women interviewed outside the store said they don’t normally vote in off-year elections, but they will this year to vote against Cuccinelli.

Will McAuliffe make inroads in Southwest Virginia?  Cuccinelli will win this conservative swath of the state, but will he get anywhere close to the 69 percent of the vote that McDonnell received four years ago?  Democrats have invested heavily on television to try to sap Cuccinelli’s strength.

It will be a long day of wondering and waiting for result.