Will the GOP's Anti-Immigrant Mantra Re-elect Obama?

Not to beat a dead horse, but once again those who crunch numbers are theorizing that if the GOP's anti-immigrant positions and Hispanic bashing drive enough of the Hispanic vote to Obama in November, the GOP will help insure that Obama is re-elected. There would certainly be more than a little irony if the vitriol of white supremacists and Christianists push their political whores in the GOP to continue to take positions that seal the deal for Obama's re-election. A piece in the New Republic looks at the argument that Hispanics may be Obama's saviors come November. Here are some highlights:

Hispanics, who were responsible for most of U.S. population growth in the last decade, have been a more important part of the electorate each election. Now the largest minority group in the United States, they are poised to play a potentially decisive role in this year’s contest between President Obama and his GOP opponent. This has been cause for concern by some Democrats, who worry that Obama’s record on immigration may depress his turnout and support within the Hispanic community; the data suggest, however, that they are worrying more than they should.

[E]stimates suggest that Obama needs to get at least 75 percent of the minority vote in 2012 to have a secure basis for re-election, given likely drop-off in his white support. African-Americans are the biggest component of the minority vote and seem likely to give Obama the same overwhelming support they did in 2008.

While Hispanics may not be completely delighted with Obama’s performance, though, they find him strongly preferable to his prospective GOP opponents. Recent data suggest that, despite all these factors, Hispanic support for Obama in 2012 may well replicate—or even exceed—the wide margin he received from these voters in 2008 (67-31). In a major survey by the Pew Hispanic Center—the gold standard for polling on Hispanics—Obama defeats Romney by 45 points (68-23), a margin 9 points greater than in 2008 (his margin is a little larger against other Republicans). The survey also finds the Democrats’ party identification advantage among Hispanics at 47 points (67-20), the greatest margin the Pew Hispanic Center has ever measured.

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the current anti-immigrant tilt of the Republican Party, especially as displayed in the primaries, has decisively turned off Hispanic voters and thrown them into the arms of the Democrats. And the likely nominee, Mitt Romney, who is typically viewed as a moderate compared to the others vying for the GOP nomination, will have difficulty reversing this judgment. On immigration issues, Romney has been aggressively conservative in an effort to outflank his more ideological opponents. He’s promised to veto the DREAM Act if it comes to his desk as president, opposes in-state college tuition for illegal immigrants, and rejects any path to citizenship for the undocumented.

If Hispanic support for the President winds up as strong as it now appears and their turnout holds up—giving Obama at least 75 percent of what should be around 28 percent of the entire vote—the benefits to the Obama campaign would be huge. Crucially, it would give him considerable leeway to lose white support but still win the popular vote.

[H]ow important are Hispanics to Democrats’ efforts to carry swing states? There is one area in particular where Obama’s advantage with Hispanics will be especially advantageous: the new swing states of the Southwest—Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. In these three states, Hispanics dominate the minority vote, which averages 36 percent of voters.

In that way, it could turn out that Republicans have sacrificed more than they anticipated by ratcheting up the anti-immigrant rhetoric during the primary season; they may have sacrificed the election.

One can only hope that this analysis proves accurate. The thought of a GOP demagogue or flip-flopping ping pong ball as president hits me as less than thrilling.