New Poll: Hillary Clinton Holds 12 Point Lead

A new ABC poll has more bad news for Donald "Grab them by the pussy" Trump and the Christofascist leaders and white supremacists who are supporting him.  The poll shows Hillary Clinton with a 12 point lead nationally.  Much of Trump's decline stems from self-inflicted wounds, including his attacks on women and statement that he might not accept the election results if he loses. Damage has been especially pronounced, but even a majority of men find Trump's attitude toward women unacceptable.  Here are some of the poll findings:

Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy.
 Likely voters by a vast 69-24 percent disapprove of Trump’s response to questions about his treatment of women. After a series of allegations of past sexual misconduct, the poll finds that some women who’d initially given him the benefit of the doubt have since moved away.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls. 

The results mark a dramatic shift from Clinton’s +4 points in the last ABC/Post poll Oct. 13. That survey was conducted after disclosure of an 11-year-old videotape in which Trump crudely described his sexual advances toward women, but before the events that have followed: A series of women saying he sexually assaulted them, which Trump has denied; his continued refusal to say whether he’d accept the election’s legitimacy; and the final debate, which likely voters by 52-29 percent say Clinton won.

The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.

Vote preference results among some groups also are striking. Among them:

• Clinton leads Trump by 20 percentage points among women, 55-35 percent. She's gained 12 points (and Trump's lost 16) from mid-October among non-college-educated white women, some of whom initially seemed to rally to Trump after disclosure of the videotape.

• Clinton has doubled her lead to 32 points, 62-30 percent, among college-educated white women, a group that’s particularly critical of his response to questions about his sexual conduct. (Seventy-six percent disapprove, 67 percent strongly.)

• That said, Clinton's also ahead numerically (albeit not significantly) among men, 44-41 percent, a first in ABC News and ABC/Post polling.

[T]he results show damage to Trump across groups on the issue of his sexual conduct. While 71 percent of women disapprove of his handling of questions about his treatment of women, so do 67 percent of men. And 57 percent overall disapprove “strongly” – 60 percent of women, but also 52 percent of men. 

[O]ne in three Republicans – 34 percent – disapprove of Trump’s refusal to say whether he’d accept the election’s outcome if Clinton won. That jumps to 65 percent of independents and, again, 91 percent of Democrats. Not only do 65 percent overall disapprove, but 53 percent feel strongly about it.

Republicans and Women Voters: A Huge Problem

With the demographic of aging, angry whites shrinking and Republican policies repelling minorities and young voters, the leadership of the GOP decided that the party needed to do more to attract women voters.  In order to determine how to proceed, a report entitled "Republicans and Women Voters: Huge Challenges, Real Opportunities"was prepared.  The findings, however, seem to show few real opportunities.  Indeed, the study showed that the GOP's war on women has made the alienation of women voters - at least outside of Kool-Aid drinking Christofascist circles - even worse.  Here are highlights from a summary of the findings:

A detailed report commissioned by two major Republican groups — including one backed by Karl Rove — paints a dismal picture for Republicans, concluding female voters view the party as "intolerant," "lacking in compassion" and "stuck in the past."

Women are "barely receptive" to Republicans' policies, and the party does "especially poorly" with women in the Northeast and Midwest, according to an internal Crossroads GPS and American Action Network report obtained by POLITICO. It was presented to a small number of senior aides this month on Capitol Hill, according to multiple sources involved.

...When female voters are asked who "wants to make health care more affordable," Democrats have a 39 percent advantage, and a 40 percent advantage on who "looks out for the interests of women." Democrats have a 39 percent advantage when it comes to who "is tolerant of other people's lifestyles."

Female voters who care about the top four issues — the economy, health care, education and jobs — vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Most striking, Democrats hold a 35-point advantage with female voters who care about jobs and a 26 percent advantage when asked which party is willing to compromise. House Republicans say jobs and the economy are their top priorities.

...The report is blunt about the party's problems. [It found] that Republicans "fail to speak to women in the different circumstances in which they live" — as breadwinners, for example. "This lack of understanding and acknowledgment closes many minds to Republican policy solutions," the report says. The groups urge Republicans to embrace policies that "are not easily framed as driven by a desire to aid employers or 'the rich.'"

The solutions offered include neutralizing Democratic attacks that the GOP doesn't support "fairness" for women; "deal honestly with any disagreement on abortion, then move to other issues"; and "pursue policy innovations that inspire women voters to give the GOP a 'fresh look.'"

Insert all the mirthless laughter in the universe here. Just "neutralize attacks" that the GOP doesn't support fairness for women, instead of supporting fairness for women. Change the subject when abortion comes up! And try to scrape the bottom of the barrel for some new conservative idea that can be mendaciously framed to appeal to modern women. Distract 'em from the misogyny with something shiny! Terrific.

Republicans' primary problem with women is, and will always be, this: They think that we're stupid. They think that there's some way they can trick us into not caring or not noticing that their policies are crap.

The Virginia Gubernatorial Race Proves the GOP Is Suicidal

Yet another conservative columnist is slamming the Virginia GOP for its nomination of a trio of nutcases in a piece in The Daily Beast.  I for one hope all the predictions of a GOP disaster prove true.  In the final analysis, the problem with the Virginia GOP largely traces to the Richmond based hate group known as The Family Foundation ("TFF").  All TFF lacks is a formal designation as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center.  Yet, it is the group that, together with its religious extremist allies, not only nominated the GOP's extreme team, but also backed much of the legislation that has come back to haunt Cuccinelli and Obenshain.  Here are highlights from the column:

If a national election were held in a test kitchen, it would resemble Tuesday’s Virginia gubernatorial election.

The race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli is a rich stew of national personalities and issues consumed by Virginia voters with “tastes” similar to voter groups nationwide. That’s why the media will see this off-year election as a bellwether for voting trends nationwide.

Speaking as a conservative Republican, I believe the McAuliffe-Cuccinelli campaign has been a recipe for disaster cooked up with the same ingredients that flavor the GOP’s toxic national brand. And that’s the reason why, at this writing, McAuliffe, with his well-earned reputation as a crony-capitalist, is leading Virginia’s attorney general by 6.7 percent and is likely to be the state’s next governor.

This Virginia “test-kitchen race” offers a taste of America’s political future that should be of concern to voters across the remaining 49 states for the following reasons.

Women are McAuliffe’s key to victory. According to a recent Washington Post poll, there is not just a gender gap but a gender canyon, with McAuliffe trumping Cuccinelli 58 to 34 percent with women voters.

Cuccinelli is opposed to abortion and holds traditional views on gay marriage and contraception. The McAuliffe campaign has successfully labeled him as an extremist.

National lesson: If the GOP keeps nominating socially conservative candidates who repel women, expect the Republican Party to lose in traditional blue and “purple” swing states. Furthermore, Cuccinelli won the nomination at the Virginia GOP convention controlled by the more conservative wing of the party. 

The Clintons were practically on the ballot. Politically speaking, McAuliffe’s last name might as well be Clinton, considering he’s been their close political operative and money-man for decades. From the beginning of McAuliffe’s gubernatorial campaign, Bill Clinton has been a cash vacuum for his old friend statewide and nationally.

National Lesson: The Clintons’ star power in Virginia has far outshined every Republican VIP brought in to stump for Cuccinelli. Early on, McAuliffe’s race for governor was billed—by him—as a Hillary 2016 staff and money incubator. Nationally, his victory will likely be viewed as a Hillary 2016 proxy election, with Virginia’s 13 electoral votes practically in the bag.

Hispanic growth is McAuliffe’s advantage. Virginia’s Hispanic population is 630,000, having increased by 92 percent since 2000. Of that number, 214,000 are registered to vote, and two-thirds identify as Democrats.

National lesson. In 2012, President Obama won 64 percent of Virginia’s Hispanic vote, compared with 71 percent nationally. Will McAuliffe top him? If so, it would be a clear signal that the growing Hispanic vote is becoming a lost GOP voter bloc similar to African-Americans. The GOP will cease to be a national party if Hispanics become loyal Democrats by margins as wide as 60 or 70 percent.

National Lesson: Remember what my friend wrote in her email: I voted McAuliffe because I think Cuccinelli is too extreme especially on women’s issues. I really think he is a nut! It looks like “nut” has grown into a larger issue than the Obamacare disaster.

The GOP will not learn anything from Cuccinelli’s defeat. Finally, even though Cuccinelli’s defeat by McAuliffe illustrates a “test kitchen” failure of a conservative candidate in a purple swing state, the Virginia results will be rationalized, marginalized, and ignored. Watch for conservative Republicans to point to Cuccinelli’s defeat as a messaging and communication problem rather than a candidate problem. That kind of denial, more than anything else, is the reason why the Republican Party could be in serious trouble for the elections of 2014 and 2016.

But what about Gov. Chris Christie’s victory in New Jersey, you ask? Good news he won. Bad news he won. That is because the same conservative forces that nominated Cuccinelli in a convention are the same forces that will work to deny Christie the GOP presidential nomination in 2016, no matter how popular he becomes. Caution: big trouble ahead for the GOP. 

The author is correct.   The far right of the GOP will learn nothing if Cuccinelli goes down in flames.  That's what happens when people deny science and every aspect of objective reality to chase after fairy tale stories written by ignorant herders 2500 years ago.