Pete Buttigieg Jumps to Lead in Iowa Poll

A new Des Moines Register/CNN poll suggests that Iowa voters may not want the "revolution" and complete remaking of America's health care system being pushed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren - both of whom I see as un-electable in a general election against Trump who merely needs to carry a few swing states to score another Electoral College win even if me loses the popular vote by up to 5 million votes (further proof why the Electoral College needs to be abandoned).  In the poll, moderate Pete Buttigieg has taken a commanding lead with 25% of the would be caucus goers.  Rather than a forced Medicare for All plan - something a post from yesterday suggests is a vote loser - Buttigieg prefers a Medicare for those who want it that would leave employer based plans in place yet which over time could transition towards a larger government plan option. Sanders and Warren cultist are no doubt in an uproar, but elections are not about forced ideological purity, but rather winning the general election. Like Warren and Joe Biden has likewise fallen in the polls indicating to me that more Democrat voters are coming to believe that he is not up to defeating Donald Trump.  The true focus needs to be on who can win in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.  Winning by huge majorities in New York or California or even Virginia will not make for an Electoral College win.  The New York Times looks at the new poll results:

DES MOINES — Pete Buttigieg continues to surge in Iowa, leapfrogging Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to hold a commanding lead among likely Democratic caucus goers, according to a new poll from The Des Moines Register and CNN.

The poll showed that Mr. Buttigieg, the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Ind., was the first choice for 25 percent of would-be Democratic caucusgoers, a significant increase from the 9 percent he held in September, when The Register last polled the state. The support placed him far ahead of the rest of the field — with the other three top candidates in a virtual tie for second: Ms. Warren at 16 percent and Mr. Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders at 15 percent.

The results are the latest evidence of Mr. Buttigieg’s strength in Iowa, where his moderate political views, plain-spoken style and military history have resonated in the early voting state. Since September, when he placed fourth in the Register poll, he has more than doubled his on-the-ground staff to over 100 and has opened more than 20 field offices. He recently completed another bus tour in the state.

Speaking to reporters in Long Beach, Calif., on Saturday night during the state’s Democratic convention, Mr. Buttigieg said the just-released poll numbers were “extremely encouraging.”

His rise also suggests that voters, in Iowa at least, are increasingly favoring a centrist agenda — a view that has drawn two new entrants, Deval Patrick, the former governor of Massachusetts, and Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, into the race this month.

The poll results reflect the deep split within the Democratic Party over whether it is veering too far to the left to defeat President Trump. Speaking on Friday to a room of wealthy liberal donors, former President Barack Obama expressed concern about some of the policy ideas being promoted by some of the candidates, citing health care and immigration as issues where the proposals may not align with public opinion.

[H]is remarks were seen as an implicit criticism of Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren, two of the leading candidates who are pushing policy plans once considered too liberal, like “Medicare for all,” with the broader goal of “political revolution” and “big, structural change.”

“Even as we push the envelope and we are bold in our vision we also have to be rooted in reality,” Mr. Obama said. “The average American doesn’t think we have to completely tear down the system and remake it.”

Ms. Warren, who led the Register’s September poll, with 22 percent, fell 6 percentage points.

Mr. Biden, who has seen his standing in Iowa slowly slip, dropped 5 percentage points.

In addition to identifying a new Iowa front-runner, the poll has once again delineated a clear divide between the top tier of Democratic candidates — Mr. Buttigieg, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders — and the rest of the field. The next-closest candidate in the poll was Senator Amy Klobuchar, with 6 percent, followed by a cluster of White House hopefuls with 3 percent, including Senator Cory Booker, Senator Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang.

Mr. Bloomberg, who has suggested he would skip the first four early nominating states, including Iowa, if he were to officially enter the race, was at 2 percent.

The other thing that Buttigieg continues to do is field an amazing digital campaign out reach.  Every single day I receive messages from his campaign - the husband and I are on seemingly  on every Democrat donor list there is - while I receive nothing from any of the other candidates.  Buttigieg's outreach covers everything from policy positions to, of course, fundraising. 

Pete Buttigieg's Democratic Rivals: A Case of Sour Grapes?

Buttigieg at the Blue Commonwealth Gala.

Of the Democrat presidential candidates, I have only heard two speak in person: Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg when we attended the Blue Commonwealth Gala in Richmond back in June.  Klobuchar gave an impressive speech - or at least it was impressive until Buttigieg spoke after her.  Buttigieg is simply a phenomenal speaker.  This, combined with his more moderate approach to health care reform and other issues, explains, in my view, his popularity and fund raising ability (the Gala attendance in June was reportedly more than 25% higher than usual largely due to people wanting to see Buttigieg).  

All of Buttigieg's success is causing angst and annoyance among Buttigieg's rivals who feel they are more experienced and have "paid their dues."  Where all of this goes is anyone's guess, especially with the entry of Michael Bloomberg into the contest.  I believe there is a longing for change in the electorate, but one non-quantifiable element is charisma - something Bernie Sanders, for instance, lacks.  

Buttigieg also has an impressive digital campaign machine as I have seen personally since the husband and I seemingly are on every Democrat donor list known to mankind.  Of any of the campaigns, I get regular, if not daily communications from the Buttigieg campaign.  I've received NOTHING from the Biden campaign and little from most of the other candidates other than Warren and Sanders who I do not view as electable and who burned bridges with many Virginia Democrats in 2017.  

A piece in the New York Times looks at the griping of Buttigieg's rivals and how he is doing far better in the contest than some would ever have expected.  Here are excerpts:

In the still-crowded Democratic presidential field, one man has triggered an outpouring of resentment and angst. It’s not Donald Trump. As Mr. Buttigieg, the millennial mayor of a town smaller than a New York City Council district, rises in the polls, he has struck a nerve with his Democratic rivals.

Many of their campaigns have griped privately about the attention and cash directed toward Mr. Buttigieg. They say he is too inexperienced to be electable and that his accomplishments don’t merit the outsize appeal he has with elite donors and voters. His public punditry about the race has prompted eye rolls from older rivals who view him as a know-it-all.

And in a field where most candidates find themselves strapped for cash, they snipe at his ability to raise more than anyone else in the primary field except for Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

More than a dozen participants in the Democratic campaign — including rival candidates and campaign aides — spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss their views about Mr. Buttigieg candidly. They conveyed an annoyance at the McKinsey consultant certitude with which Mr. Buttigieg analyzes and makes pronouncements about the primary.

Recently, though, some of the aggravation has spilled out into the public.

Campaign aides acknowledge privately that Mr. Buttigieg triggers some of his rivals. But they dismiss the criticism as little more than sour grapes. Over last weekend in Iowa, he drew crowds of several hundred people in towns that numbered just a few thousand.

“This is not a contest for who is the most established, it’s a contest for who is the most convincing,” Mr. Buttigieg said during an interview aboard his campaign bus in Waverly. “The better we do, I imagine the more we’ll feel some heat, but that just means we’re doing well.”

Mr. Buttigieg emerged from near-political obscurity to become a leader in the race, surpassing a flotilla of far more experienced governors and senators in the process. He now holds a commanding position in Iowa, one of the biggest bank accounts in the primary race and a string of field offices in the early voting states that is among the most of any candidate in the field. Even if Mr. Buttigieg fails to capture the nomination, he’s already won himself a coveted place in the political universe — as even those supporting other candidates acknowledge. . . . That’s part of what infuriates his rivals, who acknowledge Mr. Buttigieg’s political talent but also see him as benefiting from certain advantages.

Over the summer, a simple mention of Mr. Buttigieg’s name during a conversation in the Senate chamber between Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and Ms. Klobuchar was enough to make Ms. Klobuchar extremely agitated, according to witnesses.

Ms. Klobuchar, during an interview last weekend in Iowa, declined to answer when asked if Mr. Buttigieg is qualified to be president. Instead she pointed to his electoral record, which she said shows no signs he could beat President Trump in a general election.

It’s not unheard-of for one candidate in a large presidential field to become unpopular with the others. In 2004, established Democrats made no secret about their dislike for Howard Dean, the relatively unknown governor of Vermont who said he represented “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.” During the 2008 Republican primary, Mitt Romney was so disliked by his rivals that only Ron Paul would speak with him backstage before debates. Barack Obama wasn’t popular among his rivals at the beginning of his 2008 race.

“It is a natural thing when a young candidate comes along and has success for other candidates who feel like they’ve toiled in the vineyards to resent it,” said David Axelrod, the chief strategist for Mr. Obama in 2008. “I think they’d like him better if he weren’t doing as well.”

As he’s increased his national profile, Mr. Buttigieg has taken care to cultivate important Democratic donors, party officials and strategists, an effort helped by his failed bid for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee in 2017. Many former Obama staffers, including Mr. Axelrod, have heaped praise on Mr. Buttigieg. Some donors and strategists who are backing Mr. Biden say they’re keeping a close eye on Mr. Buttigieg, as well.

In recent weeks Mr. Buttigieg has grown more aggressive in his attacks on his rivals, further angering them. Around Labor Day, he began defining himself as the centrist alternative to Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders. Then during the October debate in Ohio, he attacked Ms. Warren on health care, Mr. O’Rourke on gun control and Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii on foreign policy.

His supporters said it was about time Mr. Buttigieg adopted a more aggressive posture.

On the bus in Waverly, Mr. Buttigieg said his rivals had been unfailingly polite to him in their private interactions, though he acknowledged that his success may have irked those who have seen years of presidential campaign planning tossed aside by his rise.

“I’m not going to comment,” he said, “on the emotions of my competitors.”

As a member of the LGBT community - and one who was once fired for being gay - I will say that it continues to amaze me to see an openly gay candidate do as well as Buttigieg is doing.  In the age of Trump when my community is under open attack by the Trump/Pence regime, Buttigieg's success provides hope for the future.