Prediction Model That Nailed 2018: Trump Will Lose

Like many, I view Donald Trump as a foul and abhorrent individual and worry that the nation could not survive if he were to be re-elected in 2020.  According to a researcher at nearby Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, that widespread sense of dread and loathing may be what is key in seeing Trump defeated in 2010. Apathetic Democrat voters who stayed home in 2016 - as well as Never Trump Republicans who threw away their votes on third party candidates - elected Trump.  According to this researcher who correctly predicted the Democrat gains in the House of Representatives in 2018 believes no such apathy will be witnessed in 2020.  I hope and pray that she is correct and the long national nightmare ends in January, 2021.  Here are highlights from The Hill:

The prediction model that accurately predicted Democratic gains in the House four months before the 2018 midterm elections says President Trump will lose his reelection bid.

The latest "Negative Partisanship" model by Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, released Monday, predicts Trump will lose the Electoral College with the Democratic candidate earning 278 votes.

The model predicts Trump will earn 197 electoral votes. That leaves 63 votes a toss-up – still not enough to overcome the Democrat's lead.  Bitecofer highlighted Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as states the incumbent will have difficulty winning this time around.

"The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped," she said. "Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything."  She also pointed to his low approval rating among independents as an impediment to a second term.

Bitecofer's model predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup in 2018, and the Democrats won 40. Many other models did not predict such a large victory.

She acknowledged the Democratic candidate has not been chosen yet, but argued it is not incredibly important who the nominee is.

"Does the Democrat’s nominee matter? Sure, to an extent. If the ticket has a woman, a person of color or a Latino, or a female who is also a person of color, Democratic Party turnout will surge more in really important places," Bitecofer wrote. "If the nominee is Biden he’d be well-advised to consider Democratic voter turnout his number one consideration when drawing his running mate to avoid the critical mistake made by Hillary Clinton in 2016."

"But the Democrats are not complacent like they were in 2016 and I doubt there is any amount of polling or favorable forecasts that will make them so. That fear will play a crucial role in their 2020 victory. We will not see a divided Democratic Party in 2020," she wrote.

2018 Hampton Roads Pride Launch - Setting New Records

Numerous state and local elected officials 

Governor Ralph Northam

The husband and I attended the launch party of the 2018 HR Pride project for presenting this year's Pride event which will occur on June 30, 2018 in Norfolk's Town Point Park.  The event was at the Harrison Opera House in Norfolk.  The event has grown larger and larger over the last five years as has the list of sponsors who help fund the festival.  Presenting sponsors will include Decorum Furniture, Newport News Shipbuilding ("NNS"), and WHRO-TV.  Stepping up at a truly amazing level was the City of Norfolk which now realizes that HR Pride and the annual Pride event is helping to make Norfolk in particular, by the region in general much more appealing to corporations and individuals seeking to relocate to a city/region where diversity and inclusion are welcomed.   Not that many years ago, previous mayors and city councils treated the LGBT community as if it were radioactive.  Today, the cities of Norfolk and Virginia Beach (on a much smaller scale than Norfolk), NNS, Virginia's larges corporate employer, numerous banks (one at the $10,000 level), USAA insurance, the CIA and many others all pledged funds to support the pride event which is now Norfolk's largest festival event other than Harborfest.

Politically, the event has also become the place to be seen, at least for Democrats and in attendance were Norfolk school board candidates, at least one congressional candidate.  The host of the event was Pam Northam, First Lady of Virginia.  With her was her husband, Governor Ralph Northam (who gave a much deserved shout out to my husband who does his hair), Congressman Bobby Scott, a number of members of the Virginia House of Delegates and state Senator Lynnwood Lewis, plus the Mayors of Norfolk and Virginia Beach (see the images above).

Perhaps most surprising was a resolution from the Virginia General Assembly - historically a body NOT friendly to the LGBT community - approved by both the Senate and the House of Delegates that recognized Hampton Roads Pride for the work it has done to increase diversity and inclusion, promote the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, and to recognize its 30th anniversary (see the image below).  Many older members of the LGBT community likely never believed that the day would come when such a resolution would ever be forthcoming.

All in all, it was an amazing event and convinced many of us of the old guard, if you will, that our efforts over the years have been worth the effort.   Sadly, in the age of Trump, we must redouble our efforts to make sure that progress continues. 

click image to enlarge

REEL IT OUT - Hampton Roads Queer Film Festival

As yet another sign that things are changing in Virginia despite the efforts of virulently anti-gay folks at The Family Foundation and their puppets in the Republican Party of Virginia, next weekend ACCESS AIDS CARE is sponsoring a Hampton Roads Queer Film Festival, called REEL IT OUT.   The festival will run from March 14th through 21st and feature nine, full-length feature films, along with several short-film screenings across the area. Several of the films will have panel discussions and after-party events to follow. The festival proceeds will benefit The LGBT Center of Hampton Roads a program of ACCESS AIDS Care.  What makes the event more significant is that three of the regions universities are involved in the effort. HRBOR, the local affiliate of the NGLCC is a sponsor of the event.  I hope local readers will make an effort to attend some of the screenings and receptions.  For more information on the festival, please go to www.Reelitout.org and www.accessaids.org.  Here are some details from the press release on the effort:

The festival’s chief visionary has been a personal friend, Connor Norton, a theater production and business management student at Old Dominion University and the president of ODU Out Student Alliance.  “I wanted [Reel it Out] to do two things; to create a sense of community bonded not simply by sexuality or gender identity, but by our human emotions to love, laugh, cry and feel. The second was to commemorate those who had the courage to break the status quo. Before our time, films with LGBTQ themes had very little to no attention or recognition in the professional movie making world.”

The festival will kick off on Thursday, March 14th with a special screening of STRUCK BY LIGHTENING, written by Chris Colfer (Glee). The film will be held at Naro Theater, followed by discussion featuring Director Brian Dannelly (Los Angeles) and reception to follow at The Green Onion. The Naro Theater will also host closing night, March 21st with a screening of JUDAS KISS, followed by discussion with featured guest Director Carlos Pedrazza (Seattle) and actress Julia Morizawa (Los Angeles). A closing after-party will be held at Night of the Iguana.

There will be a series of university screenings, including PARIAH and THE WORLD UNSEEN, which will be held at Norfolk State University at The New Student Center, Room 149 and hosted by NSU’s LGBTQ student organization, Leading the Education of Straight and Gay Individuals (LEGASI). There will be a discussion to follow, hosted by Dr. Charles Ford, Professor and Chair of the Department of History at NSU.

Old Dominion University’s gay student association, ODU Out, will host a screening of STONEWALL UPRISING at The Monarch Theater on Hampton Boulevard. After the movie, there will be a panel discussion with several members of the ODU academic faculty and Hampton Roads residents Mitch Rosa and Melissa Morrissett, who were both in Greenwich Village during the Stonewall Riots.

Christopher Newport University will touch on the subject of homosexuality and the church, with a screening of PRAYERS FOR BOBBY at The Ferguson Center Studio Theater (Black Box), located at 1 Avenue of the Arts, Newport News, Virginia, 23606(-3072). Five university clubs, including the Gay-Straight Student Union, the Communication Club, the Film Club, Unitarian Universalist and United Campus Ministries (UCM), host the film. A discussion and reception will follow the film.

Other films on the agenda include THE SENSEI (The LGBT Center of Hampton Roads), WERE THE WORLD MINE (TR Dance) and IMAGINE YOU AND ME (The Commodore Theater). There will be a screening of selected short-film entries at TR Dance at 325 Granby Street, prior to the screening of WERE THE WORLD MINE.

As noted above, the event will benefit The LGBT Center of Hampton Roads, a program of ACCESS AIDS Care. The Center provides services such as mental health for gay, lesbian and transgender youth and adults, support groups for youth, military personnel and the transgender community and a variety of social outlets for area high-school gay student associations, and over 50 group and weekly yoga sessions. Free HIV testing and youth outreach is also held in the center, which is partially funded through a grant from the Elton John Foundation. 

A Call to Action in Virginia - and to Virginia College Alumni

In the wake of Uber-Christianist Virginia Attorney General Ken "Cooch" Cuccinelli's directive to all Virginia public colleges and universities to rescind their non-discrimination policies insofar as they include "sexual orientation" as a protected class, Equality Virginia is asking Virginia residents to voice their displeasure with Governor Bob McDonnell and others to protest the draconian anti-gay agenda being set by the Republican administration. Also, and perhaps most importantly, Equality Virginia is asking that if you are a graduate of a Virginia public college or university, you let your alma mater know that you will be closing your checkbook in terms of contributions if the college or university knuckles under to Cooch's demands. Many of Virginia's top schools - e.g., the University of Virginia, William & Mary, and Virginia Tech - rely heavily on out of state alumni contributions to meet funding needs. Obviously, if these institutions face a significant financial hit if they give into to what is in the last analysis religious based discrimination by the Attorney General, they will be much more vocal in their protestations against Cuccinelli and Bob McDonnell. As a UVA alumni myself, I am letting UVA know my views. I encourage others to do like wise. Here are some highlights from Equality Virginia's call to action:

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Equality Virginia members and allies are urged to take the following actions NOW in response to this threat to the basic human rights of members of Virginia’s college and university communities:
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1) Contact the Governor and let him know that you support policies that protect GLBT Virginians from discrimination and that you expect him to provide leadership in ensuring that Virginia is truly a “Commonwealth of Opportunity” for all Virginians, including GLBT Virginians.
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2) If you are an alum, student, faculty or staff member of a Virginia college or university, contact your institution’s president and let him or her know that you want your college or university to stand with its GLBT students, faculty, staff and alumni and reject the advice of the Attorney General.
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3) Sign EV’s online petition in favor of changing the law to provide nondiscrimination protection for all. Or download the hard copy petition and collect as many signatures as you can!
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4) Spread the word on FaceBook, Twitter and other social media sites about the need to take action NOW.
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5) Help EV make a statement about the breadth and depth of support for our work by ensuring that this year’s [Commonwealth Dinner] dinner is sold out. Buy your tickets now.
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6) Write a resolution for your student group or faculty senate in response to Cuccinelli's letter.
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The bottom line is that we need to make Cooch and Taliban Bob's lives a living Hell and make it clear that such religious based bigotry is going to cost Virginia dearly. It is also important to recognize that Virginia's colleges and universities are not the only targets on Cuccinelli's list. As the editor of the Falls Church News-Press has made clear in a public statement, Virginia's municipalities that have adopted non-discrimination protections for LGBT citizens/employees are likely next. Here are some highlights:
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Because of its use of language protecting lesbians and gays from discrimination, the City of Falls Church is "in Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli's cross hairs," Falls Church News-Press editor Nicholas F. Benton told the F.C. City Council in a public statement at the Council's business meeting tonight.

Benton urged the Council to take action to condemn the "unprovoked, inflamatory act of bigotry" by Cuccinelli in the form of a letter to Virginia's state colleges and universities last week advising them to remove any policy language protecting the rights of lesbians and gays.
Benton's comments were later echoed by F.C. Councilman Lawrence Webb. Following that, Mayor Robin Gardner urged that a statement on the subject be drafted for a vote at the next Council meeting.

The following is the text of Benton's statement to the Council, which he said he will also present to the board of directors of the Falls Church Chamber of Commerce at its business meeting tomorrow morning:

"The unprovoked, inflammatory act of bigotry by the new Republican Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli last week, in the form of a letter advising Virginia colleges and universities to remove language protecting lesbians and gays from discrimination, takes away existing protections from an embattled minority, and represents a profound threat to the Commonwealth in a number of important ways.
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"First, it represents an effort to remove protections that currently exist for a minority that is well-known for its susceptibility to discrimination, hate and violent attacks, from elementary school playgrounds through adulthood.
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"Second, it represents a major blow to Virginia's economic development efforts, including it is effort to secure the relocation of major corporations like Northrup-Grumman and other large business entities, because of the chilling effect Cuccinelli's action will have on the desire and willingness of those businesses and their employees to locate to the state.
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"Fourth, it fuels a climate of intimidation and hate against minorities of all types in the state in a time when mouthpieces of the far right are causing such negative trends to grow, empowering bigots with a sense of entitlement to act out their hatred with impunity.

"I urge every fair-minded citizen, every civil libertarian, every elected official of any party, and every proponent of economic growth in Virginia, every advocate of civility, to go on record in strong opposition to the Attorney General's incendiary action and to affirm that every Virginian enjoys equal protection under the law.
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Again, I encourage readers from both within and outside of Virginia to join in actions to pressure Virginia's government and courts to end religious based discrimination in the Commonwealth.

McDonnell's Sorry Record of Hostility Toward Gay People

Perhaps some believe that I talk too much about Virginia politics, but it is important to get as much information out into the blogosphere to halt the GOP's disingenuous campaign this year to depict it's statewide slate as consisting of moderates. Blue Virginia has great piece that looks at Bob McDonnell's heinous record on supporting discrimination against gay Virginians. As bad as McDonnell's record is, his running mate, Ken Cuccinelli, GOP candidate for attorney general, if elected would likely make McDonnell look like a moderate. I would note that the listing in Blue Virginia omits McDonnell's participation in the lynching of Judge Verbena Askew back in early 2003, who was not reappointed to the bench largely because it was rumored that she might - oh the horrors - be a lesbian. Here are highlights from Blue Virginia's latest post:

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The fact is that as Attorney General, Mr. McDonnell repeatedly used his official position and powers to discriminate against gay men and women in Virginia. The volume and circumstances of his involvement as Attorney General in cases involving gay rights issues suggests that Mr. McDonnell harbors hostility against a substantial number of Virginians that calls into question whether he is fit to be Governor. Mr. McDonnell should not be permitted to paper over this record with meaningless, insincere promises.

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This is not about gay rights or one’s attitudes toward gay people – like anyone, Mr. McDonnell is entitled to his personal opinion -- but rather the question is: Do we want leaders who would use our own government as a tool to discriminate, in law or in fact, against a significant portion of the population it represents, whether because they are gay, persons or color, Jewish, or whatever. For me, the answer is, “No.”

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Here is Mr. McDonnell’s sorry record:

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On his web site, under the Orwellian rubric of “protecting families,” Mr. McDonnell touts the fact that while in the GA he was a chief sponsor of the Marshall-Newman Amendment to the Virginia Constitution, which purported to defend the traditional definition of marriage as between a man and a woman, but in fact was clearly designed to legitimize discrimination again people on the basis of sexual orientation. Of no small consequence, nationwide the tide seems to be turning on this issue, and Virginia now runs a risk of being left behind other states in creating a welcoming, tolerant environment for all people that is conducive to economic development and advancement.

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As Attorney General, Mr. McDonnell lost no time issuing an opinion to countermand the executive order by both Governors Warner and Kaine to bar discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Whatever the legal effect of the ruling, McDonnell’s legal reasoning was shoddy enough that it led the Virginia ACLU to conclude, “It is distressing when clouded judgment and poor lawyering by a high government official leads him to conclusions that are clearly at odds with common sense, common decency and the law.”

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In early 2007, after The Christopher Newport University board banned discrimination in matters of admissions and employment based on sexual orientation, Attorney General Bob McDonnell took the time to write the school to tell them, as the publication Inside Higher Ed put it, “it would not be legal for the university (or other public institutions in the state, which have done the same thing) to bar discrimination based on sexual orientation.” Wow! So, according to Bob McDonnell, even if an institution wants to make discrimination illegal, it cannot do so.

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As Attorney General, Bob McDonnell intervened in a private lawsuit among members of the Episcopal Church in a dispute that had gay rights at its core. In a protest over gay priests, dissident members left the church, but filed suit seeking to retain church property. Mr. McDonnell, needless to say, sought to intervene in the case on the side of the anti-gay dissidents, ostensibly in defense of a state statute. But the dispute was a religious and social one, above all else, not a Constitutional one. A real estate attorney told the Washington Post that McDonnell’s intervention in the case “was a little out of the ordinary.” Perhaps more interesting, was this, as the Post reported:
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McDonnell's office has another connection to this issue -- his deputy, former state senator William C. Mims (R), who has been a member of another Episcopal church that broke away from the national church over the same issues of how to understand Scripture as it pertains to homosexuality. Mims prompted controversy and much debate in 2005 when he -- as a senator -- proposed a bill that would have explicitly allowed congregants who leave their denominations to keep their land. The measure failed, and opponents said it was an inappropriate insertion of government into church affairs.

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So, when Mr. McDonnell vows not to discriminate as Governor, it rings hollow to me. Oh, if Bob McDonnell is elected governor, he probably won’t explicitly discriminate against the gay Virginians he seems to dislike so much – Mr. McDonnell is a lot of things, but stupid isn’t one of them. But then again, he won’t need to. Like the insidious bigotry directed at groups throughout this country’s history, whether black, Asian, Jewish, Muslim, or even Mr. McDonnell’s own Irish ancestral background, Mr. McDonnell has already hung up a sign outside his Richmond office: “Gay people need not apply.”

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For more on McDonnell, check out this video of Taliban Bob with his friend and mentor, Pat Robertson:

Christianists Seek to Destroy Jefferson's Statue for Religious Freedom

A group has been formed - centered at least on its face at Christopher Newport University ("CNU") in Newport News, Virginia - seeking to overturn Thomas Jefferson's wonderfully elegant and forceful Statute for Religious Freedom which is still the law in Virginia even though the Virginia Legislature has ignored its spirit by enacting anti-gay legislation and other legislation that discriminates against those who do not subscribe to a Christianist version of religious belief. The Virginia Statue for Religious Freedom in fact is one of the three things for which Jefferson wanted to be remembered and appears on his tomb at Monticello. The pretense for the new statute is the alleged persecution of Christians by secularism because some self-centered Christians who care nothing for the religious freedoms of others are increasingly unable to force their religious beliefs upon the rest of society as a whole. By dishonestly describing the intent behind Jefferson's statute, they seek to change Virginia's long standing law in order to enable them to place their belief system above those of other Virginians.

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The reality is that Virginia has changed drastically over the last few decades and its population includes individuals of many diverse religions. In this area of Southeast Virginia alone one finds many Hindus, Jews, Muslims, Bhuddists, assorted Christian denominations and other faiths. Northern Virginia has an even more diverse range of religious traditions. The side effect is that certain Christian groups are upset that case law and court decisions have limited their ability to inflict their particular set of religious beliefs on other citizens and hence the disingenuous claim that they are being persecuted by secularism. The truth is that they are free to practice their version of religion without any impediment so long as they do not seek to inflict their beliefs on others in the public realm or otherwise. Unfortunately, this is not enough for these people self-center, self-absorbed people. I encourage you to contact them at New.Virginia@verizon.net and tell them what you think of their effort to subvert Thomas Jefferson's Statute for Religious Freedom. Better yet, contact the University President, Paul Trible (a former conservative U.S. Senator) at (757) 594-7000 and ask him WTF is going on with some of his staff. Virginia residents should contact their representatives in the Virginia Senate and the House of Delegates and likewise ask them to investigate what the Hell is going on at CNU.

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In closing, here are highlights from what Jefferson had s to say about those who sought to force their religious beliefs on others:

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the impious presumption of legislators and rulers, civil as well as ecclesiastical, who being themselves but fallible and uninspired men, have assumed dominion over the faith of others, setting up their own opinions and modes of thinking as the only true and infallible, and as such endeavouring to impose them on others, hath established and maintained false religions over the greatest part of the world, and through all time; that to compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves, is sinful and tyrannical;

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. . . . our civil rights have no dependence on our religious opinions, any more than our opinions in physics or geometry; that therefore the proscribing any citizen as unworthy the public confidence by laying upon him an incapacity of being called to offices of trust and emolument, unless he profess or renounce this or that religious opinion, is depriving him injuriously of those privileges and advantages to which in common with his fellow-citizens he has a natural right