Why Deny Climate Change?

As the images above indicate, even as recovery efforts in Texas begin in earnest, the U.S. east coast may be for a hard hit from yet another hurricane the only question being which portion of the coast line may perhaps take the direct hit.  Yet, at the national level, federal elected officials from Der Trumpenführer down through the GOP leadership refuse to accept the reality of climate change. Indeed, Trump has called it a "Chinese hoax."  Never mind the fact that there is near consensus among scientists as to its reality.   A column in the New York Times looks at this idiocy.  It also looks at the federal flood insurance program that needs a serious overhaul (for full disclosure, our home is insured under the program and we revived a sizable payment from in in 2009), including excluding coverage to new homes in flood prone areas.  The other change is that the program currently pays only to restore a home to it's pre-flood condition, with no funding to make the home more flood proof.  After our flooding in 2009, the husband and I spent tens of thousands of additional dollars to water proof the first floor, install industrial sump pumps, and install a generator to power the pumps even if the area lost power.  In 2010 when Hurricane Irene caused flooding, we simply mopped out the first floor and put the carpets and furniture back in place.  Many area homes in contrast needed significant repairs.

The conclusion?  Take climate change seriously and reform the flood insurance program to (i) stop new homes being built in foolish locations, and (ii) include repairs that will reduce future payouts.  Here are highlights from the op-ed column:

Imagine that after the 9/11 attacks, the conversation had been limited to the tragedy in Lower Manhattan, the heroism of rescuers and the high heels of the visiting first lady — without addressing the risks of future terrorism.

That’s how we have viewed Hurricane Harvey in Houston, as a gripping human drama but without adequate discussion of how climate change increases risks of such cataclysms. We can’t have an intelligent conversation about Harvey without also discussing climate change.

That’s awkward for a president who has tweeted climate change skepticism more than 100 times, even suggesting that climate change is a Chinese hoax, and who has announced he will pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord. Scott Pruitt, President Trump’s head of the Environmental Protection Agency, says it’s “misplaced” to talk about Harvey and climate change.

Really? To me, avoiding the topic is like a group of frogs sitting in a beaker, fretting about the growing warmth of the water but neglecting to jump out. Climate scientists are in agreement that there are at least two ways climate change is making hurricanes worse.

First, hurricanes arise from warm waters, and the Gulf of Mexico has warmed by two to four degrees Fahrenheit over the long-term average. The result is more intense storms.

“There is a general consensus that the frequency of high-category (3, 4 and 5) hurricanes should increase as the climate warms,” Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at M.I.T., tells me. Likewise, three experts examined the data over 30 years and concluded that Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger.

Second, as the air warms, it holds more water vapor, so the storms dump more rain. That’s why there’s a big increase in heavy downpours (“extreme precipitation events”). Nine of the top 10 years for heavy downpours in the U.S. have occurred since 1990. “Climate change played a role in intensifying the winds and rainfall associated with Hurricane Harvey,” says Charles Greene, a climate scientist at Cornell. 

Frankly, it’s staggering that there’s still so much resistance among elected officials to the idea of human-caused climate change.

Last year was the third in a row to set a record for highest global average surface temperature, according to NASA. The 10 years of greatest loss of sea ice are all in the last decade. And poor Houston has suffered three “500-year floods” in the last three years.

Climate change increases risks of war, instability, disease and hunger in vulnerable parts of the globe, and I was seared while reporting in Madagascar about children starving apparently as a consequence of climate change.

An obvious first step is to embrace the Paris climate accord. A second step would be to put a price on carbon, perhaps through a carbon tax to pay for tax cuts or disaster relief.
We also must adapt to a new normal — and that’s something Democratic and Republican politicians alike are afraid to do. We keep building in vulnerable coastal areas and on flood plains, pretty much daring Mother Nature to whack us.  We even subsidize such dares through the dysfunctional National Flood Insurance Program. This offers underpriced insurance, encouraging people to live in low-lying areas . . . . One Mississippi home flooded 34 times in 32 years, resulting in payouts worth almost 10 times what the home was worth.

The truth is that what happened in Houston was not only predictable, it was actually predicted. Last year, ProPublica and The Texas Tribune published a devastating article about Houston as a “sitting duck for the next big hurricane” and warned that Texas was unprepared.

In other domains, we constantly manage risks that are uncertain. We address a threat from the Islamic State or North Korea even when it’s complicated and hard to assess. So why can’t our leaders be as alert to climate risks that in the long run may be far more destructive?

A week and a half ago, Republicans and Democrats traveled to see the solar eclipse and gazed upward at the appointed hour, because they believed scientific predictions about what would unfold. Why can’t we all similarly respect scientists’ predictions about our cooking of our only planet?

Norfolk Sea Level Rise: Lure of Waterfront Homes Lessens, Homeowners Get Innovative

November 12, 2009

For years in the Hampton Roads owning a waterfront home has been the goal of many and waterfront homes have demanded premium prices as a result.  Now, with rising sea levels, some are rethinking that goal and existing homeowners are finding that a waterfront property may be more of a challenge to sell if the home has flooded previously.  As sea levels continue to rise, this phenomenon will not be limited to Norfolk and other Hampton Roads cities, but will effect many localities on the east coast - Miami and New York City are but two major metropolitan areas with threatened waterfronts.  As noted before, the husband and I have made major modifications/improvements to our home to address the threat of flooding: water resistant materials from the floor to chair height throughout the entire first floor and marble floors that cam be simply mopped up throughout the first floor; three large industrial sump pumps to address any water that might get into the house; and a whole house generator to keep the pumps running in the event of a hurricane power  outage.  A piece in the Virginian Pilot looks at what some are doing in Norfolk neighboehoods.  Here are highlights:

Soon after Mary-Carson and Josh Stiff got married last year, they began talking about buying a house.  Josh, 30, wanted to live in Norfolk to be near his law office. Mary-Carson, 28, wasn't so sure. Sea level rise and the chronic flooding that plagues the city worried her.

"My concern was, it might not be a wise place to invest in general," she said.

Her worry was grounded in her work. A consultant at the College of William & Mary Law School's Virginia Coastal Policy Clinic who now works part time as policy director for the local environmental group Wetlands Watch, Mary-Carson has been immersed in sea level rise policy work for months. She's well-acquainted with the piles of studies, reports and charts that show Norfolk is one of the country's most vulnerable cities.

I think everyone in Hampton Roads has rose-colored glasses when it comes to a picturesque home on the waterfront, with a dock and a boat and a kayak. That life is sweet and has a place in my heart, but it's no longer what I dream about."

The newlyweds forged a compromise. They would search for a home in Norfolk to be near Josh's office. But it could not be in a flood plain, susceptible to rising seas, storm surge and escalating flood insurance prices.

Their decision is one glimpse into the changing dynamics of coastal real estate. A growing awareness of sea level rise and flooding, coupled with rising flood insurance premiums as the federal government phases out subsidies, has the potential to reshape segments of the Hampton Roads market.

Real estate agent Kathy Heaton found herself on the flip side of the growing concern, and perhaps at the forefront of a new trend.  For months, the Nancy Chandler and Associates agent had been trying to sell a home in the desirable Norfolk neighborhood of Larchmont. The problem: Like many homes in that area, it's in a high-risk flood plain. Flood insurance could run up to $3,500 based on estimates she's seen.  That would add almost $300 to a monthly mortgage, an amount many buyers Heaton has encountered would rather put into the cost of a home.
 
About a quarter of properties in Norfolk - just over 17,000 - are in high-risk flood plains, with values totaling 34 percent of the tax base, according to city figures.  The number of homes that repeatedly flood, so-called "repetitive loss" properties, has increased from about 200 in 2002 to almost 900 today, said Lenny Newcomb, the city's zoning administrator.

The Larchmont home has been so difficult for Heaton to sell that a creative solution is in the works that could be a model for flood zone homes in the future.  The idea is to make changes to the home to reduce flood damage and drive down insurance rates.

In this case, contractors would move the furnace, hot water heater and electric panel from the basement of the 1920s home into a newly created utility room in the upper part of the house. The basement would then be filled in, and vents would be added to allow floodwater to move in and then out from under the house.  The work would cost about $15,000, said Mike Vernon, director of business development for Flood Mitigation Hampton Roads, a new company that would do the job.

Local climate change deniers - most of whom are Republicans - say "Norfolk has always flooded," ignoring the fact that things are getting much worse at a steady pace.  Sticking one's head in the sand does not make a problem go away. With the Commonwealth of Virginia still lacking any plan to deal with sea level rise, many homeowners will need to come up with their own plans to protect their properties and maintain their values.  The husband and I have spent a lot of money on our home but as one friend said, if we had not done so, "who is going to buy it/"