The Economic Numbers Are Brutal for Trump

Remember all the post 2024 election interviews where individuals said they voted for the Felon because of his promises to reduce inflation and to bring down consumer prices?  More a year into the Felon's second regime both promises have not been kept and, in fact, inflation has increased, prices have continued to increase, and job creation is in the negative range.  Usher in the Felon's war of choice against Iran and the inflationary forces are greatly increased with some saying that gas prices will likely come to exceed $4.00 per gallon. Where are the screams of pickup driving, Felon voting bubbas that we heard against Joe Biden?  One has to wonder how much more it will take before some of the MAGA base realized that they were conned by the Felon, the equivalent of a carnival barker whose policies have only increased his own wealth and been a boon to the billionaire class and, of course, the so-called "Epstein class."  And did I mention that Iran reports that Russia and China are giving Iran aid in the  war with the USA even as the Felon reduced sanctions on Russian oil? A piece at The New Republic looks at the reality of the tanking U.S. economy which is far different than the lies and talking points of the Felon and his sycophants in Congress.  Here are article highlights:

The likelihood is growing that the economy will be in recession when voters cast their ballots in the midterm elections. Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised its 12-month estimation of a recession’s probability from 20 percent to 25 percent, and on Friday morning Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, put the likelihood at 34 percent within the next nine and a half months. Even if we don’t see an outright recession, Trump’s economic policies are plainly failing.

The most immediate economic problem is the Iran war, which on Friday morning had oil trading at about $100 per barrel, even after the Treasury Department rather pathetically lifted sanctions on Russian oil for tankers already at sea. In effect, war with Iran is compelling Trump to partially surrender to Russia in the Ukraine war—even as Russia helps Iran target U.S. forces in the Middle East—and it isn’t even working. Oil prices are still going through the roof. The Democrats’ attack ad writes itself.

Economic indicators were starting to go south even before the war started on February 28. According to a revised Commerce Department estimate released Friday morning, gross domestic product growth slowed to 0.7 percent from October through December 2025, down from 4.4 percent from July through September. Previously the Commerce Department knew GDP growth had dropped (the first estimate was 1.4 percent), but the growth figure turned out to be half what Commerce initially thought. A big part of the problem was reduced government spending at the state and local level. Yes, Virginia, government spending increases GDP, and one out of every three dollars in state spending lately has originated from the feds, who cut Medicaid and food stamps in Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill and impounded or otherwise clawed back assorted state grants. The government shutdown last fall further reduced federal aid to states during the fourth quarter.

Another major reason for weak economic growth was that imports grew from October through December, reaching a record high even as Trump slapped tariffs hither and yon. Judged as a revenue-raiser, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were a great success, raising an estimated $160 billion. But judged as trade policy, the tariffs were a dismal failure, because tariffs are supposed to make people Buy American, not pay more to keep buying foreign products. That just fuels inflation, and according to the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index, core inflation (i.e., minus volatile food and energy prices) was 3 percent in January. That’s significantly higher than when Trump took office one year before, after getting elected promising to reduce inflation. Rising oil prices will now send non-core inflation higher.

The trade deficit, we learned this week, narrowed in January, from $73 billion to $55 billion. (This was before the Supreme Court killed the Liberation Day tariffs.) Good news, right? Not really. The main reason was a stampede by overseas buyers to purchase American gold. That was a vote of no confidence in American dollars and American Treasury bills. Out of a $15 billion increase in exports, $4.7 billion was gold, and when you add in other precious metals, such foreign stockpiling accounts for more than half the increase. The dollar’s value fell more than 9 percent in 2025, its biggest annual drop since 2017.

Did I mention that job creation was also down before the war started? . . . . the latest jobs report showed that 92,000 jobs were lost in February, which is not good, though we’ll need one or two more monthly reports to identify this as a trend.

Uncertainty about whether Trump seeks a regime change in Iran makes all of this worse. On some days he wants one, and on other days he doesn’t. But even (especially?) if the war ends next week, the instability it created will continue to disrupt an economy that was already headed for trouble before it began. If I didn’t know any better, I’d guess Trump was deliberately trying to throw the midterm elections to the Democrats. That’s not his intention, of course. He’s just really bad at this.