Rebellion in Russia - Wagner Group Revolts

At the moment it is difficult to know what is happening in Russia, but by all accounts Vladimir Putin is facing an armed rebellion by Wagner Group mercenaries who have been the shock forces in the unlawful invasion of Ukraine. While the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin to date has said the revolt is against the Russian military leadership, it is hard to believe Prigozhin - who is a very nasty piece of work - might not have larger ambitions.  Meanwhile, Putin, who sees himself as Russia's new tsar, seems to be paralleling mistakes by Nicholas II that lead to the Russian Revolutions of 1917 as Putin's unpopular war is not going well for Russia's military.  In 1917 the Bolsheviks were a small group but they had a determination and ruthlessness that the Provisional Government forces could not match.   Yes, Putin needs to be overthrown, but it is difficult to see the extremely brutal Prigohzin as a better alternative or as someone who would end dictatorship in Russia. A piece in The Economist looks at the unfolding rebellion in Russia.  Here are excerpts:

THE LONG-RUNNING feud among Russia’s warlords has burst into an open revolt, with Wagner mercenaries taking control of a military base in the south-western city of Rostov-on-Don, close to the border with Ukraine, and fighting the regular army in the Veronezh region to the north. Amid accusations of internecine attacks, betrayal and insurrection, and signs that he has begun to lose control of his underlings, President Vladimir Putin, briefly addressed the nation on the morning of June 24th. Looking angry and shaken, he vowed to punish “those who went on the path of treason”, and said the armed forces had been given the “necessary orders” to put down Wagner’s mutiny.

The Wagner rebellion began with a series of video messages by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the group’s head, who accused Russia’s army of attacking his forces. He vowed to march thousands of his fighters to deal with his enemies, prompting authorities to charge him with insurrection. Uncertain-looking generals issued videos pleading with Wagner troops to remain loyal, to little avail.

As morning broke on June 24th, social-media footage showed combat troops, seemingly from Wagner, surrounding key sites in Rostov-on-Don, including the headquarters of the Southern Military District, which oversees the war in Ukraine. In one video they were watched by curious onlookers as a street-sweeper worked around them.

Soon after, Mr Prigozhin was filmed outside what appears to be a military building, berating Russian generals as “clowns”. He declared they would be allowed to continue prosecuting the war in Ukraine but demanded that the top brass should come to speak to him—otherwise he would march on Moscow. Things appeared more tense hundreds of kilometres further north, in the town of Pavlovsk, where videos appeared to show fighting involving helicopters. Wagner claimed to have shot one down, and that army units let its forces pass. Official Russian media did not report on events in Rostov-on-Don but, adding to the surreal air, the Tass news agency put out pictures of the soldiers identifying them (in English) as Wagner fighters.

Ukrainian forces, whose counter-offensive, launched earlier this month, has been making only slow progress, will be delighted by the disarray in their enemy’s ranks. Whether they are able to exploit it militarily remains to be seen. Russia claimed Ukrainian troops were “taking advantage of Prigozhin’s provocation” by concentrating for an attack near Bakhmut, the site of much bloody fighting involving Wagner. Ukrainian commanders say they have yet to commit the bulk of their forces, and are still probing for weaknesses. But, it seems, they have already put enough pressure on Russia to sow chaos among its military commanders.

The rivalry between Mr Prigozhin and the military command has been apparent for months. Mr Prigozhin has developed a cult following thanks to his video rants against the corruption and incompetence of the high command (but initially not directly of Mr Putin himself, though he later called the president “deeply mistaken”). His forces, packed with ex-convicts who were promised future pardons, have often proved to be better fighters than regular Russian units.

But his video posts on June 23rd were remarkable even by his spittle-flecked standards. One questioned the basis of Mr Putin’s “special military operation”, as Russia describes the invasion launched last year. Mr Prigozhin said there had been no real threat from Ukraine. Instead, Russian leaders—but not Mr Putin himself—had led the country to war for reasons of corruption and vainglory. He also asserted that Ukrainian forces were on the advance, contradicting the Kremlin’s claims to have repelled the onslaught. “What they’re telling us is a total fraud.”

Then his rants took an ominous turn when he stated that thousands of Wagner fighters had been killed by a missile strike launched not by Ukraine at the front, but “from the rear”, by Russian army units. Vowing that Wagner would “respond to this evildoing”, he announced a “march of justice” against Russia’s army, but was careful to say it was not a “coup”. He singled out Mr Shoigu, claiming he had ordered the alleged air strike on Wagner and then “ran away like a bitch to avoid explaining why he sent helicopters to destroy our boys”.

In another video, he declared: “The evil brought by the country’s military leadership must be stopped.” And without saying what precisely he would do, he added: “I ask that nobody resist. We will consider everyone who resists to be a threat and destroy them at once.”

As ever, there is much uncertainty about what Mr Prigozhin is up to. Mr Putin has given him extraordinary leeway to criticise his campaign when even those who call it a “war” are jailed. But Mr Prigozhin appears genuinely to have unnerved the top brass in the army and security services.

The FSB, Russia’s main security service, later announced it would prosecute Mr Prigozhin “over calls for an armed uprising”. It told Wagner fighters “not to make an irreparable mistake, to stop using any force against the Russian people, not to carry out Prigozhin’s criminal and treacherous orders, and to take steps to detain him”.

The seriousness of the feud was all the more apparent when senior Wagner-friendly generals took to issuing their own videos late at night. . . . . “I urge you to stop. The enemy is waiting precisely for the political situation in our country to worsen.” Calling on them to follow Mr Putin’s orders, he added: “Stop the columns, return to your places of permanent deployment.”

As security forces, including armoured vehicles, were seen in Moscow, Tass, the state news agency, explained: “Security measures have been strengthened in Moscow, all the most important facilities, state authorities and transport infrastructure facilities have been taken under increased protection.”

Mr Putin himself has been lying low. At one point during the war of videos, the Kremlin issued a pre-recorded film of Mr Putin congratulating school-leavers, saying: “Believe in yourself, dream bravely, achieve your goals, and you will definitely be successful!” Alina Polyakova, of the Centre for European Policy Analysis, a think-tank in Washington, DC, tweeted that Mr Putin’s silence was “another signal that this is a Shoigu-Prigozhin power struggle”.

Winston Churchill once compared Russian leaders to “bulldogs fighting under a carpet”. But more than a year after Mr Putin launched his reckless invasion of Ukraine, his dogs of war seem to be tearing at each other in the open.