Saturday, October 08, 2022

10 Million New Jobs Since Biden's Inauguration

To listen to Republicans the American economy is in a shambles despite objective data to the contrary.  Yes, inflation is a problem caused largely by (i) Russia's war in Ukraine which has disrupted oil and gas supplies and food exports from Ukraine and (ii) corporate greed on the part of oil companies and food companies. Of course, the Republicans offer no solution to inflation other than whining about more tax cuts that would disproportionately benefit the very wealthy and large corporations (even as they fight for infrastructure funding derived from a bill they voted against) and more oil and gas drilling which realistically would take years to make an impact at the gas pump.  Meanwhile, job growth since Joe Biden's inauguration has been extraordinary and the American economy and the U.S. dollar remainstrong as noted by The Economist.  Sadly, many Americans remain ignorant to the true facts - especially Fox News and right wing :news" outlet viewers who continue to give themselves the equivalent of a lobotomy on a daily basis.  A piece in The New Yorker looks at the reality of job growth and the economy under the Biden administration and a Democrat majority in Congress.   Here are excerpts:

With the September jobs report in hand, there’s only one more employment update left before the midterms. The October report will be released on Friday, November 4th—just four days before the polls open. Yes, there is a possibility of a last-minute surprise, but, based on what we know today, the Democrats and Joe Biden can go to the voters and make a very strong case: since his January, 2021, Inauguration, the American economy has created ten million jobs.

Last month, according to the Labor Department’s payroll survey, over-all employment rose by two hundred and sixty-three thousand. While that figure was lower than the three hundred and fifteen thousand increase during August, it still represents healthy job growth in an economy where the unemployment rate now stands at just 3.5 per cent—tying the lowest figure for the past half a century.  The U.S. economy has added, on average, half a million jobs per month since Biden took office. White House officials were quick to point out that this pace of job growth is unprecedented for the first half-term of a Presidency.

[T]he jobs gains over the past twenty months have been widely spread. When Donald Trump left office, the unemployment rate among Hispanics was 8.6 per cent: last month, it hit an all-time low of 3.8 per cent. During the same period, the Black jobless rate has fallen from 9.2 per cent to 5.8 per cent. (The white unemployment rate is now 3.1 per cent.)

Much of the strong employment growth we’ve seen over the past year and a half is a continuation of the rebound from that unprecedented shock. Still, maintaining and extending the recovery from the pandemic was far from guaranteed when Biden took office. In fact, the U.S. has had the most rapid recovery from the pandemic of any G7 country.

This success surely has something to do with the fact that, shortly after Biden took office, Democrats passed the American Rescue Plan Act, a 1.9-trillion-dollar stimulus package. The Rescue Act is controversial, of course. Republicans (and even some Democratic economists) have tied it to the upsurge in inflation during the past year and a half. In a sense, though, the critics of the Rescue Act are acknowledging that it succeeded in supporting the economy and boosting job growth: their argument is that the aid was too much of a good thing and led to economic “overheating” in the form of rapidly rising prices.

It should be noted that the September jobs report provided no evidence that the economy is suffering from a nineteen-seventies-style wage-price spiral, which is the inflation hawks’ nightmare scenario.

Since the end of last year, the rate of wage growth has fallen slightly. The corporate profit rate, on the other hand, has recently reached its highest level in seventy years, as businesses of all kinds pass along higher prices to consumers, and then add in a little extra for themselves.

For some reason, you don’t read about record corporate profits much, or hear about it very often from Federal Reserve officials, who remain determined to keep raising interest rates until something goes pop. Jerome Powell and his colleagues are hoping that this something will be the inflation rate, but it could just as easily be the entire U.S. economy, including the jobs market.

According to a Monmouth University poll released earlier this week, more than four out of five Americans still rank inflation as an extremely important or very important issue, so Republicans will continue to hammer Democrats on it through November. But the President and his Party now have a new economic slogan for the campaign’s final month: ten million new jobs. “The fastest job growth in history,” Biden boasted on Twitter. 

Facts matter even if Republicans continue to try to spin an alternate reality.

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