Will Trump Destroy GOP Control of the Senate?

With the election less than 50 days away and Donald Trump still lying about the Covid-19 pandemic and undermining the advice of medical experts, a new poll suggest that not only is Trump in trouble but the Republican control of the U.S. Senate is also at risk.  Some GOP senators who have shamelessly prostituted themselves to Trump - think Susan Collins of Maine - and his agenda of endless lies and racial hatred are themselves at risk of defeat. Perhaps most unsettling, the poll found majorities want the White House and Senate controlled by the same party - seeming Democrats.  Support for Trump in some swing states doesn't rise above 44% and his support remains significantly from less educated whites without a college degree.  The New York Times looks at the poll which I personally bodes for a electoral disaster for the GOP and suggests that voters are tired of constant lies and incompetence.  Here are highlights:

President Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic has imperiled both his own re-election and his party’s majority in the Senate, and Republican lawmakers in crucial states like Arizona, North Carolina and Maine have fallen behind their Democratic challengers amid broad disapproval of the president, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. led Mr. Trump by wide margins in Arizona, where he was ahead by nine percentage points, and Maine, where he led by 17 points. The race was effectively tied in North Carolina, with Mr. Biden ahead by one point, 45 percent to 44 percent.

In all three states, Democratic Senate candidates were leading Republican incumbents by five percentage points or more. Senator Susan Collins of Maine, a Republican seeking a fifth term, is in a difficult battle against Sara Gideon, trailing by five points as voters there delivered a damning verdict on Mr. Trump’s stewardship: By a 25-point margin, 60 percent to 35 percent, they said they trusted Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump on the issue of the pandemic.

The poll, conducted among likely voters, suggests that the most endangered Republican lawmakers have not managed to convince many voters to view them in more favorable terms than the leader of their party, who remains in political peril with less than 50 days remaining in the campaign. Democrats appear well positioned to gain several Senate seats, and most voters say they would prefer to see the White House and Senate controlled by the same party.

In the swing states, Mr. Trump is still lagging across the board. The Times has polled seven presidential battlegrounds in the last two weeks, and [Trump] the president has not led in any of them, and in no state did he amass more than 44 percent of the vote. Though he has repeatedly tried to shift the focus away from the virus, he has not established a meaningful advantage over Mr. Biden on any issue of equal urgency: Voters see Mr. Trump as somewhat more credible on issues of the economy and public order than on the pandemic, but not to the point of offsetting their overall disapproval of him.

While Maine exhibited the widest gap over the handling of the virus, voters in North Carolina, the closest presidential swing state polled so far by The Times, also preferred Mr. Biden, by 52 percent to 41 percent. In Arizona, the difference was even more lopsided, with voters favoring Mr. Biden by 16 percentage points.

The underlying dynamics of the race appeared to be stable and consistent with national trends, with Mr. Biden leading among women, voters of color and educated whites, and Mr. Trump’s strongest support coming from men and white voters who did not attend college. There were a few variations among the states, however: In North Carolina, the poll found no substantial gender gap, while in Arizona Mr. Biden was even with Mr. Trump among men and in Maine he had a slight advantage over the president with less-educated whites.

The Democrats’ strong lead in Arizona, a historically Republican state, is owed to a 30-point advantage among Hispanic voters and a break-even performance with whites. And both Mr. Biden and the Democratic Senate candidate, Mark Kelly, are leading with voters over 65, a crucial group in a state rich with retirees. Mr. Kelly was leading Senator Martha McSally among all voters, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Joseph Seoane, 67, of Glendale, Ariz., is among the seniors in the state who plan to vote for Mr. Biden. A political independent who supported Mr. Trump in 2016, Mr. Seoane said he was still “not against” the president but believed it had become clear that Mr. Trump “can’t handle” the job.

Democrats are likely to lose one seat they currently hold in Alabama, where Senator Doug Jones is a long shot for re-election, meaning they probably have to capture four seats currently held by Republicans to reach parity.

The poll indicates that Democrats are within reach of that goal. In addition to the three states polled, Democrats are favored to win a Republican-held seat in Colorado, where Mr. Biden is expected to win easily.

Potentially unsettling for Republicans was the enthusiasm voters expressed for having the same party control the White House and the Senate. Political strategists have long discussed the possibility that if Mr. Trump were to fall irretrievably behind Mr. Biden, Republicans could make the case to voters for electing a G.O.P. Senate as a check on the Democrats’ agenda.

But in all three states, two-thirds of voters or more said it would be better for the country if the White House and Senate were controlled by the same party, including a majority of independent voters.

Half of Maine voters said they approved of Ms. Collins’s vote against repealing the Affordable Care Act, including three in five Democrats and a majority of women. But that gratitude was not translating into enough votes to overcome the Democrats’ overall advantage in the state.

Mr. Trump’s disadvantage in Maine was so severe that it was not clear he would even carry the state’s Republican-leaning Second Congressional District. The state splits its Electoral College votes by district, and four years ago Mr. Trump picked up a single elector from the more conservative of Maine’s two seats. But the poll showed Mr. Biden with a nominal lead of two percentage points in that district.

On the question of which candidate would do a better job of choosing Supreme Court justices, voters in all three states favored Mr. Biden, by varying margins.

 Let's hope and pray the poll proves accurate.