Economic News and GOP Demolition Derby Help Obama

If I were still a Republican, I would not take much comfort from a new New York Times/CBS News poll which suggest that growing voter confidence in the economy and the continued disarray in the GOP presidential nomination contest are benefiting Barack Obama. Admittedly, nine months out from election day, any number of things could happen. But even if things remain stable, Obama is the likely beneficiary in the public's view. And personally, were Rick Santorum to win the GOP nomination, I believe it would be a tremendous boost to Obama who could pummel Santorum on his religious extremism while taking credit for economic improvement, especially in states like Michigan where the auto industry is reviving. Should Romney be the GOP nominee, Obama may still benefit simply because many Christianists may find it impossible to vote for a Mormon. Here are highlights from the New York Times on this latest poll:

President Obama’s political standing is rising along with voters’ optimism that the economy is getting better, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, a shift that coincides with continued Republican disquiet over the field of candidates seeking to replace him.

Consecutive months of job growth, the bullish stock market and improving consumer demand appear to be benefiting — for now, at least — a president who stated outright three years ago that his chances for a second term would depend on his ability to persuade the country that its economy was on the mend by this very month.

In what could be a turning point, the percentage of people who said they believed the economic outlook was improving is now greater, by double digits, than the percentage of those who said they believed it was getting worse, a reversal from a low point in September, when pessimists outnumbered optimists by more than three to one.

For the first time since the election season began in earnest in the late summer, as many Democratic voters as Republicans said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the 2012 presidential election. That would appear to wipe out the “enthusiasm gap” that promised to help Republicans greatly next fall.

Mr. Obama led all four remaining Republican presidential candidates in theoretical one-on-one competitions, including the presumed front-runner, Mr. Romney But the president’s general election prospects could change drastically when the opposition finally settles on a nominee, who will most likely win an immediate boost of support and enthusiasm, if history is a guide.

Republican primary voters indicated they were less than satisfied with their choices, with more than 6 in 10 saying they wished there were more candidates to choose from, and nearly the same number saying they could change their minds. The instability of the Republican presidential race is now redounding to the benefit of Mr. Santorum, whose new strength points up the persistent weaknesses that Mr. Romney has with those who describe themselves as evangelical Christians, supportive of the Tea Party or conservative . . .

But the poll showed that even Mr. Romney would lose to Mr. Obama by six percentage points among all registered voters if the election were held today. The past couple of months appear to have greatly harmed Mr. Romney’s standing with independent voters, who favored him over Mr. Obama in January by 46 percent to 39 percent but now favor Mr. Obama over Mr. Romney by 49 percent to 38 percent.

Mr. Romney does have an apparent opening against Mr. Santorum. Nearly half of all registered voters said they had not yet formed an opinion about him, which Mr. Romney’s team is likely to exploit by trying to define him in negative terms in the lead-up to remaining primaries and caucuses. And only one in seven Republican primary voters said Mr. Santorum had the best chance of defeating Mr. Obama.

Obama's re-election prospects definitely require that the economy continue to be perceived to be improving. At the same time, the extremism of the GOP candidates - especially Santorum - can likely only help Obama once others beside the GOP primary voters get more engaged in the election run up.