Tom Edsall has an interesting piece at Huffington Post (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/16/michigan-results-reveal-s_n_81713.html) that looks at some polling results from Michigan which supports my continued fears that if Hillary Clinton wins the Democrat nomination, she will lose the general election in November 2008. Of course her resorting to tactic worthy of Karl Rove in smearing Obama also give great concern that she will alienate some voters and cause them to stay home or vote against her out of spite. The reality is that without winning independent voters no nominee of either party can win the general election. I hope the Democrats keep that in mind. Here are highlights of Edsall's analysis:
The Michigan Democratic primary was on the surface a non-event. The national party has ruled the state's delegation will not be seated. Of the major candidates, only Hillary Clinton was on the ballot, pitted against "uncommitted" in a seemingly meaningless race (she won by 15 percent). Yet the exit poll results from this strange contest reveal some troubling trends for the New York Senator.
Among black voters, Clinton was crushed by "uncommitted," 26-70. If that kind of margin among African Americans continues into future primaries, she faces major problems in the heavily black January 26 South Carolina primary and in the states with large black populations going to the polls on February 5 -- so-called Tsunami Tuesday. Clinton carried whites in Michigan by a 61-30.
Clinton ran poorly among young voters of all races, losing those under the age of 30 by 39-48 percent; splitting voters from 30 to 44 by 46-48 percent; solidly carrying the 45 to 56 age group by 54-34 percent; and winning voters 60 and older by a landslide 67-31 percent.
In a warning signal if she becomes the Democratic nominee, Clinton did much better among committed Democrats, winning them 57-37, than among independents, losing them 32-51.
2 comments:
I think if Obama or Clinton get the nod from the Dems and McCain gets the nod from the Republicans it could turn into a Republican victory in Nov. As much as it should be a hands down Dem victory due to W's poor performance. It is definitly going to be one interesting election.
In my view, the election is the Dem's to lose. And, I am afraid that Hillary as the nominee will reignite all of the crap that plagued Bill Clinton's presidency. Most people are over it and want something different.
I could live with a McCain victory simply because I do not think he'd engage in the war against gays and certainly would not approve torture like his GOP opponents. Plus, at his age, he probably would not run for a second term and, therefore, could do what was righ as opposed to what is expedient.
Should one of the wingnut GOP candadtes win, I shudder at what will be ahead for the country.
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