Will Trump Drag Down the GOP in Virginia's 2021 Elections?

It has been twelve years since Republicans won a statewide race in Virginia and Donald Trump lost the 2020 race to Joe Biden by 10 points.  With Virginia's off year gubernatorial election this November, one question that people on both sides of the political aisle is whether Trump will inject himself into Virginia's elections. While the race is just beginning to heat up, many in the slate of GOP nomination candidates are embracing Trump despite the fact that he is anathema to Northern Virginia voters and increasingly in Virginia's cities and the so-called urban crescent which must be won if one is to carry the state.  Among Republican contenders the mentally imbalanced (in my opinion) and early front runner Amanda Chase pictured above right is the most vociferous acolyte of Trump, but she is not alone.  Former hedge fund investor Glenn Youngkin who has run deceptive vanilla ads - the dog whistle signal to extremists is his numerous references to his faith - has embraced Trump's "stolen election lie" as he panders to the shrinking GOP base within the state.  All of this is music to the ears of Democrats who would love nothing better than tying Trump around the neck of whoever emerges as the GOP nominee.   A piece in The Hill looks at the situation.  Here are highlights.  

Former President Trump is already deeply involved in the 2022 midterm elections, headlining fundraisers and backing primary challengers, but he has yet to weigh in on one of this November's few races: the vote for Virginia's next governor.

While a number of the GOP candidates in the field have embraced the former president and his policies, Virginia has been trending blue in recent years, making Trump's potential presence — or absence — the contest's key X-factor.

"Even though this election nationally is likely to be seen as the first election of 2022, I think it’s doubtful that Trump would get involved in Virginia, and if he did, it would be a negative, not a positive" for Republicans, said veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth.

GOP state and federal lawmakers from Virginia experienced critical losses during Trump's tenure.

Democratic Virginia Reps. Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton all ousted Republican incumbents in 2018, contributing to the Democratic takeover in the House.

The party also won control of Virginia's General Assembly in 2019, giving the Democrats total control of the commonwealth's government for the first time since 1994.

Trump lost Virginia to President Biden by roughly 10 points in November after losing it to former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by roughly five points four years earlier.

Some observers believe, however, that while Trump will avoid getting involved in the GOP's 2021 nominating convention, he will ultimately end up endorsing in the general election.

"I think he’s going to make a difference," said talk show host John Fredericks, who served as Trump's 2016 and 2020 Virginia campaign chairman. "He’s got to rally the base."

In 2017, Republicans lost their second straight bid for the Virginia governor's mansion when Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Ed Gillespie, who supported many of Trump’s policies, by nearly 10 points.

Trump never campaigned directly with Gillespie but voiced support for him on Twitter in the run-up to the vote.

Four years later, many of the candidates running in Virginia's Republican primary have thrown their arms around Trump and his policies.

State Sen. Amanda Chase, who led a poll of the GOP field last month, often describes herself as "Trump in heels" and was censured by the state Senate for her attendance at the Jan. 6 "Stop the Steal" rally in Washington and her praise for the rioters who stormed the Capitol that day.

Former hedge fund investor Glenn Youngkin has also echoed Trump's skepticism about the 2020 election results, including establishing an "Election Integrity Taskforce."

Former Virginia state House Speaker Kirk Cox (R), meanwhile, has steered clear of talking about Trump on the campaign trail and did not say in an interview with the AP whether he would like to see the former president stump on his behalf.

“I would like to see everyone turn and focus on Virginia and Virginians,” Cox said.

Former Virginia Rep. Denver Riggleman, a vocal Trump critic who lost his GOP primary last year, told The Hill that whether the eventual Republican nominee accepts an endorsement from Trump could depend on their campaign's financial situation.

Others argue that Trump's support would not be enough to outpace the Democratic momentum coming from the suburbs of Washington, D.C.

"The worst thing for the Republican Party would be to have him mobilize the Democrats in Northern Virginia," Holsworth said. "[Republicans] don’t exist anymore as an organized forced in Northern Virginia."

"The Democrats would want nothing more than a heavy Trump presence in this election," he added.

Indeed the party is already at working trying to tie the former president to the GOP contenders in the race.

Four of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, including former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy, state Sen. Jennifer McClellan and Del. Lee Carter, signed a joint statement on Thursday condemning their Republican counterparts for aligning themselves with Trump.

"Is it something Democrats would use in Fairfax County? Absolutely," said Doug Heye, former deputy chief of staff to former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.). "But also, what are the dynamics in the campaign at that point in October and November and is Trump really leading a leading part of that conversation? I don’t think we know."

The Republican Party of Virginia continues to cling to the delusion that they'd win if only they nominated a sufficiently far right candidate. Should Amanda Chase get the GOP nomination, I suspect they would suffer a crushing defeat and perhaps finally drop that insane belief and realize the majority of Virginians are not drinking their Kool-Aid.