It is stunning at times to see progressive causes and equality advancing in South America and in Europe - even in South Africa - yet America seems at times to be lurching backwards with racists, bigots and foul religious extremists either in ascendancy or not plummeting in a death spiral as they deserve. In America a main representative of this regressive process is today's Republican Party with a party base that stinks of racism, worships ignorance, and holds anyone deemed as "other" - which is virtually anyone who isn't a conservative white conservative Christian - with open contempt. And despite this, gay statistics nerd Nate Silver predicts that the GOP may make major gains in the U. S. Senate in 2014. Currently, the Senate is the only obstacle to passage of extremist legislation passed by the gerrymandered GOP controlled House of Representatives. If the GOP were to take control of the Senate, other than a presidential veto, there would be no stopping GOP insanity and bigotry. Hence my question, is it time to bail and emigrate? Talking Points Memo looks at Silver's current predictions:
Following former Gov. Brian Schweitzer's decision not to run for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat this weekend, New York Times polling guru Nate Silver predicted Monday that Republicans will hold 50 to 51 seats in the upper chamber after all ballots are counted in the 2014 Congressional mid-term elections.
Silver hedges in his prediction by reminding his readers that the outcome will be affected by several factors, namely local variables, the quality of candidates yet chosen by both Democrats and Republicans, economic indicators and President Barack Obama's approval rating.
It is equally important to look for early indications of whether G.O.P. primary voters will be more tolerant of moderate and “main street” Republicans than they were in 2010 and 2012. A strong set of Republican nominees could give the party as many as a dozen credible opportunities to pick up the seats they need – whereas a weaker series of candidates could require them to win almost all of the races that remained competitive after the primaries.Read Silver's full state-by-state analysis here.
Silver hedges in his prediction by reminding his readers that the outcome will be affected by several factors, namely local variables, the quality of candidates yet chosen by both Democrats and Republicans, economic indicators and President Barack Obama's approval rating.
Read Silver's full state-by-state analysis here.
It is therefore important to watch macro-level indicators – especially Mr. Obama’s approval ratings, the generic Congressional ballot and major economic measures – in addition to following the recruitment and polling in individual states.
It is equally important to look for early indications of whether G.O.P. primary voters will be more tolerant of moderate and “main street” Republicans than they were in 2010 and 2012. A strong set of Republican nominees could give the party as many as a dozen credible opportunities to pick up the seats they need – whereas a weaker series of candidates could require them to win almost all of the races that remained competitive after the primaries.
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