Bob McDonnell has Opened up a 51-37 Lead Over Creigh Deeds

I realize that it is still only August and that things can change, but the new Public Policy Polling numbers are not at all good - all of the Republican statewide candidates, including absolute Christianist nutcase Ken Cuccinelli, are leading their Democrat opponents. Among other things, the polling results show that Democrats are not as engaged as the GOP base and that significant percentages of voters who turned out for Obama last November are not currently likely to vote. These voters include blacks and the youth vote and I believe - had they been specifically surveyed - LGBT voters. Deeds to date has not developed any compelling message and has rolled over and played dead when it comes to challenging Bob McDonnell's masquerade as a moderate.

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In my opinion, adding to the problem is the failure of President Obama and the Congressional Democrats to deliver on any significant campaign promises. The youth voters, blacks and LGBT Virginians have received nothing for their support of Obama and Virginia Democratic candidates for Congress. Obama talks a good talk, but then leaves to work to Congress while he blathers on about the need for bipartisanship support for legislation. News bulletin: the GOP is not going to join in on anything, so the Democrats need to have the guts and discipline to go it alone. Obama needs to use his pulpit and mount pressure for getting things done, call the GOP lies for what they are, and leave the GOP to be viewed as obstructionists. While he's at it, Obama needs to stop trying to please folks like Rick Warren. Here are some highlights from the PPP survey:

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Bob McDonnell has opened up a 51-37 lead over Creigh Deeds in the race to be Virginia's next Governor, up from a 49-43 advantage four weeks ago.The movement in the race likely has more to do with national trends than anything actually going on in Virginia. As Barack Obama's approval has moved downward in the last month, so have the fortunes of Democratic candidates on the ballot in 2009.

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The biggest problem hampering Deeds right now is a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for coming out to vote this fall. Although Barack Obama took Virginia 52-46 last November, those planning to vote in this year's election report having voted for John McCain by a margin of 52-41. Put another way, roughly 60% of people who voted for McCain last fall are planning to come out while only 42% of those who voted for Obama are.

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Still it's clear there's a lot of work to do. For instance his lead in northern Virginia is only 51-44 and among all voters describing themselves as suburbanites he trails McDonnell 51-37. By comparison a PPP survey right before the election last year showed Obama winning those folks 58-38, meaning at this point there's basically a 34 point turnaround with those voters.

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The bottom line is that Deeds, Obama and Congressional Democrats have given many Virginia Democrats little reason to vote for Deeds other than because he's not Bob McDonnell who so far has been allowed to campaign as a moderate with no real effort made to expose his real far right track record.