Is the MAGA Coalition Beginning to Fray?

The elections last month and this past week's special election in Tennessee suggest that perhaps - if the nation is lucky - the MAGA coalition may be beginning to unravel.  The GOP losses in Virginia were steep in part because the Republican ticket had a horrible standard barer and the GOP wins four years early were, in my view, a fluke. Youngkin ran a slick and deeply deceptive campaign while his Democrat opponent made serious missteps and statements that were very damaging to Democrat prospects.  But the GOP losses across the rest country are not so easily explained away, by allegations of poor candidates merely a return to more normal voting patterns, particularly in red states and historically Republican districts and county legislative bodies. Indeed, while all races have their local issue components, the overarching issue was the Felon's regime and policies that have not improved so-called "affordability" - supposedly a major concern in 2024 by those voting for the Felon - and in many ways that are outright harming many working class and other voters in red states. As a piece in the New York Time notes, both voters and Republican office holders may be awakening to the reality that the Felon is toxic to their lives and finances or political viability as applicable.  One can only hope more Americans wake up to the need to be rid of the Felon.  Here are column highlights:

It hasn’t happened much in my life, but last Tuesday night a place I know very well was at the center of national attention. The bright red congressional district where I lived until this summer delivered a sharp warning to the Republican Party.

I’m speaking about the special election results in Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District, a mostly suburban and rural district that includes parts of Nashville. The Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps, defeated his Democratic opponent, Aftyn Behn, by just under nine points.

In some places, a nine-point Republican margin is considered a resounding victory. But not in Tennessee 7. . . . This is not a swing district or one that Democrats expect to win this side of the apocalypse.

But for a few days in October, it seemed like the end was nigh. I’d been hearing rumors that Republicans were starting to worry about the race, and a poll taken between Nov. 22 and Nov. 24 showed Van Epps leading by only two points. . . . That it was close at all was stunning, not least because Behn is hardly an ideological match for one of the most conservative districts in Tennessee. She’s been labeled — and not as a gesture of love and respect — the “A.O.C. of Tennessee.”

So, no, this race was not what it looks like when Democrats strategically nominate someone who will appeal to Tennessee Republicans. This is what it looks like when your coalition is coming apart at the seams.

The end of the Trump era is coming into view, and too much attention is focused on what Republicans think of Trump and too little is focused on what Republicans think of one another.

Last Monday the Manhattan Institute released the results of a poll of nearly 3,000 voters that was designed to identify the ideology and beliefs of the American right. What it found was fascinating — and almost exactly mirrors my personal experience living in a deep-red district in a deep-red state. . . . “Roughly two-thirds of the coalition are what we call ‘Core Republicans’: longstanding G.O.P. voters who have pulled the Republican lever for years. They are consistently conservative on economics, foreign policy and social issues. They still prefer cutting spending to raising taxes, still see China as a threat, still support Israel, and remain firmly opposed to D.E.I. and gender ideology.”

And what about the rest? Roughly 30 percent are what the Manhattan Institute terms “New Entrant Republicans.” They are more diverse, younger and “more likely to have voted for Democratic candidates in the recent past.” . . . But there’s more to the New Entrant Republicans than diversity and ideological moderation. Again, here’s Arm: “Many of them have also absorbed the ugliest content sloshing around online. One-third of New Entrant Republicans believe in all or most of the six conspiracy theories we tested — including about vaccines, 9/11 and the moon landing — compared with just 11 percent of Core Republicans. Sixty-three percent of that highest-conspiracy group previously voted for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden.”

You can see the culture clash with your own eyes in the Seventh District. I lived in Williamson County, a prosperous suburban region just south of Nashville, and in the years since the pandemic, we made national news for multiple Republican intramural fights.

There was the time when a gang of far-right, anti-mask activists gathered around a small group of proponents of masking in public schools, shouting “We know who you are” and “We will find you.” Then, a local Moms for Liberty chapter tried to ban the book “Ruby Bridges Goes to School: My True Story,” among others, from the elementary school curriculum — claiming that the book violated Tennessee’s ban on teaching critical race theory.

Each of these disputes has created enmity between the different factions. And that enmity isn’t just rooted in ideological differences; it’s rooted in mutual resentment. Establishment Republicans resent the extremism and cruelty of the new right, and the new right is furious that the establishment — the Core Republicans — is not sufficiently radicalized.

In fact, the new right is often angrier at traditional conservatives than it is at the left. . . . The depth of these Republican divisions has been obscured by two things: shared affection for Trump and shared revulsion at the left. But Trump is no longer on the ballot, and there is increased alarm over the new right. Those two factors are working together to shrink the Republican tent, and in the Seventh District we watched the tent shrink right in the middle of the Republican heartland.

Core Republicans may like Trump, but they have much less affection for MAGA ideology or MAGA political figures not named Trump. As a result, they’re far more willing to take on figures like Pete Hegseth and Kash Patel. They’re certainly more willing to take on the likes of Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes.

MAGA took the ferocity and extremism and dialed it up. Now there are actual fans of Adolf Hitler in the new right universe, and explicit antisemitism and ethnonationalism is all over right-wing social media.

It’s a common human failing that it’s often hard to see extremism as a problem when extremists aim their fire outside the tent. But when the fire is aimed inside — at you — it becomes impossible to ignore.

If the internal Republican clashes are helping to push people out of the party, it’s still incumbent on Democrats to try to pull wavering Republicans and swing voters in. I don’t know if a more moderate Democrat could have won last week . . . . . but it’s worth noting that Behn’s 13-point blue swing has been the smallest among special elections and primaries thus far. Every other blue shift was between 16 and 28 points.

If a number close to 13 is the minimum swing for Democrats, then the consequences could be devastating for the Republican Party, and no amount of gerrymandering will save it. In fact, if present trends continue (and, of course, much can change between now and November 2026), it could backfire substantially.

In other words, if you’ve been doing nothing but shedding support since Trump was sworn in, and if the Democrats work to win over decent Republicans who are repulsed by what their party has become, then the gerrymandering party may be reminded of one of Solomon’s most memorable proverbs: “Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.”