GOP Pollster: Republicans Are Wrong on Ending Same Sex Marriage

Evangelicals comprise 23% of the U. S. population with more that half living in the South and 55% being 50 years of age or older (Republicans make up only 28% of the population while Independents make up 43% and Democrats are at 28%).  Meanwhile, 29 percent of the U. S. population espouses no religious affiliation. Yet, the white "Christian" nationalists behind Project 2025 want to inflict the beliefs of this declining minority of the population on the nation as a whole. These architects of Project 2025, want to restore white male privilege, undermine women's rights, reverse LGBT rights, and I suspect, if they could, bring back Jim Crow laws. Sadly, far too many Republicans are only too willing to prostitute themselves to this hate and bigotry driven minority rather than face a a potential primary challenge.  A guest column in the New York Times by a Republican pollster argues that Republicans pandering to Christofascists and supportive of ending same sex marriage have it wrong and are misreading the American public's views and support for same sex marriage, especially among younger voters who will increasing come to dominate the voting public.   Here in Virginia the GOP extremist gubernatorial candidate is ignoring the reality of the situation with her desire to end same sex marriage.  These are column highlights:

Almost 10 years ago, the Supreme Court ruled in Obergefell v. Hodges that same-sex marriage would be legal across the country. Today, sensing a political shift toward socially conservative policy, Republican policymakers in states from Michigan to Tennessee have begun proposing bills that would roll back same-sex marriage.

These lawmakers may discover to their dismay that they have the politics of the issue quite wrong. Though the cultural winds have shifted on many issues, Republican voters are not clamoring for an unraveling of same-sex marriage rights. Republican voters have objected to socially progressive policies that they believe incur a cost to themselves or others, but the experience over the past decade with legal same-sex marriage has persuaded many in the party that it is nothing to be feared.

Polls of American voters generally show support for same-sex marriage rising over the past three decades, both before and after the Obergefell decision. A whopping 68 percent of Americans said they supported legal recognition of same-sex marriages, according to a Gallup poll from last month. Younger voters, a demographic courted by Donald Trump in his recent presidential campaign, are typically the most supportive of gay rights; indeed, some of those who voted for the first time in 2024 may have scarce memory of a time when same-sex marriage was not the law of the land.

Among Republicans, the story is admittedly more complicated. There has been a backsliding of support for same-sex marriage among Republicans in recent years, but surveys differ on whether this is a blip or a full-fledged reversal. While Gallup shows a 14-point decline in support among Republicans for same-sex marriage since 2022, my surveys have shown Republican support for legal same-sex marriage bouncing back above its pre-2022 levels, from 40 percent in 2022 to 43 percent in 2023 to 48 percent in 2024.

There are two main lines of argument that seem to resonate most strongly with Republicans on preserving same-sex marriage: Live and let live, and leave well enough alone.

Republicans remain very open to the idea that the government should not be in the business of meddling with or punishing people because they are gay or lesbian. In polling I conducted with a coalition of Republican pollsters on behalf of Centerline Liberties and Project Right Side, published Friday morning, roughly 78 percent of Republicans surveyed said that “what two consenting adults do in their personal lives is none of my business — and it shouldn’t be the government’s either.” Government is already “too big and intrusive” was a convincing argument in support of legal same-sex marriage, according to the survey.

Republican voters seem to have made a distinction between the “L.G.B.” and the “T.” They continue to strongly oppose things like the participation of transgender athletes in women’s sports — a topic on which a majority of Americans agree with them. However, when it comes to same-sex marriage, people appear to feel little or no imposition on the lives of others. Same-sex couples can live and thrive in communities side by side with heterosexual married couples harmoniously. Live and let live.

But even setting aside the arguments in favor of same-sex marriage on the merits, there are legal and political considerations that even more skeptical Republicans understand.

The reality is that there is little political passion or momentum on the side of opposition to legal same-sex marriage. It has been in place for a decade (or longer in states that embraced it before Obergefell). Families have been established, and gains have been made that people will be loath to give up. As millennials and Generation Z voters become a larger slice of the electorate, the political viability of opposing same-sex marriage will continue to evaporate. Republicans will recognize that this is an issue where trying to undo what has been done would be a losing strategy.

Many survey respondents in my recent polling mentioned personal interactions with same-sex married couples in their lives to explain their support for same-sex marriage, using words like “love” and “family.”

Republican policymakers should not misread the moment. Both as a matter of political prudence and as a matter of embracing personal freedom, when it comes to same-sex marriage Americans should be allowed to live and let live.